Prediction of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in young and middle-aged healthy workers: The IberScore model.

AIMS: Our primary objective was to improve risk assessment for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in a working population, mostly young and healthy. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study to derive a survival model to predict fatal and non-fatal 10-year cardiovascular risk. We recruited 992,523 workers, free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease at entry, over six years, from 2004-2009. We divided the sample into two independent cohorts: a derivation one (626,515 workers; from 2004-2006) and a temporal validation one (366,008 workers; over 2007-2009). Then, we followed both cohorts over 10 years and registered all fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events. We built a new risk calculator using an estimation of cardiovascular biological age as a predictor and named it IberScore. There were remarkable differences between this new model and Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) (in both the specification and the equation). RESULTS: Over the 10-year follow-up, we found 3762 first cardiovascular events (6‰) in the derivation cohort. Most of them (80.3%) were non-fatal ischaemic events. If we had been able to use our model at the beginning of the study, we had classified in the 'high-risk' or 'very high-risk' groups 82% of those who suffered a cardiovascular event during the follow-up. All the post-estimation tests showed superior performance (true positive rate: 81.8% vs 11.8%), higher discrimination power and better clinical utility (standardised net benefit: 58% vs 13%) for IberScore when compared to SCORE. CONCLUSION: Risk assessment of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in young and healthy workers was improved when compared to the previously used model (SCORE). The latter was not reliable to predict cardiovascular risk in our sample. The new model showed superior clinical utility and provided four useful measures for risk assessment. We gained valuable insight into cardiovascular ageing and its predictors.

COVID-19 and Sick Leave: An Analysis of the Ibermutua Cohort of Over 1,651,305 Spanish Workers in the First Trimester of 2020.

Objectives: The worldwide SARS-COV2 pandemic has impacted the health of workers and companies. The aim is to quantify it according to sick leave. Methods: Using ICD-9 codes, we analyzed Ibermutua records of all sick leaves during the first trimester of 2020, compared to during the same months of 2017, 2018, and 2019. We stratified the analysis by causes, patient sex, activity sectors, and regional data. All sick leaves were adjusted by the number of Ibermutua-affiliated persons in each period. Results: In March 2020, there was an unprecedented (116%) increase in total sick leaves, mainly due to infectious and respiratory diseases. Men and women were equally affected. All activity sectors were impacted, with the highest increase (457%) observed among health-related workers, especially due to contagious disease. The incidences of sick leaves were heterogeneous among different regions. Cost-analysis of sick leaves during the first trimester of 2020 compared with in previous years showed 40.3% increment (mean 2,813 vs. 2,005 € per 100 affiliated workers). Conclusions: The SARS-COV2 pandemic is having a huge impact on workers' health, as shown by data regarding sick leaves in March 2020. This is associated with greater economic burden for companies, both due to the cost associated with sick leaves and the losses in productivity due to confinement.

Estimación del riesgo cardiovascular de por vida (IBERLIFERISK): una herramienta nueva en prevención primaria de las enfermedades cardiovasculares / Estimation of lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease (IBERLIFERISK): a new tool for cardiovascular disease prevention in primary care

Introducción y objetivos: Desarrollar una función predictiva del riesgo cardiovascular de por vida de eventos cardiovasculares, mortales y no mortales en población laboral española. Métodos: Estudio de cohortes retrospectivo. Se seleccionó a trabajadores de entre 18 y 65 años sin antecedentes de enfermedad cardiovascular que realizaron un examen de salud entre los años 2004 y 2007. El 70% de la cohorte se utilizó para desarrollar la ecuación de riesgo y el 30%, para validar la ecuación. Se construyeron 4 modelos de riesgos proporcionales de Cox en los que se utilizaron como variables dependientes la aparición de eventos cardiovasculares y la aparición de eventos competitivos; se usaron los mismos modelos en varones y mujeres. Los eventos mortales y no mortales se evaluaron hasta el año 2014. Resultados: Se incluyó a 762.054 sujetos, con una media de edad de 35,48 años (el 71,14% varones). Resultaron factores significativos en el modelo la ocupación manual, el tabaquismo, la diabetes mellitus, el tratamiento antihipertensivo, la presión arterial sistólica, el colesterol total, el colesterol unido a lipoproteínas de alta densidad y el tratamiento hipolipemiante; en varones, el consumo de alcohol, el índice de masa corporal, los antecedentes de enfermedad coronaria precoz en familiares de primer grado, la enfermedad renal y la presión arterial diastólica. El área bajo la curva c fue 0,84 (IC95%, 0,82-0,85) en varones y 0,73 (IC95%, 0,66-0,80) en mujeres. La calibración mostró una subestimación en los deciles de bajo riesgo y sobrestimación en los de alto riesgo. Conclusiones: El modelo de riesgo cardiovascular de por vida tiene una discriminación y una calibración satisfactorias, con mejores resultados para varones que para mujeres

Introduction and objectives: To develop a predictive function of lifetime cardiovascular risk, including morbidity and mortality, in a healthy working population in Spain. Methods: Retrospective cohort study. We selected healthy workers, aged 18 to 65 years, with no history of cardiovascular disease, who underwent a health assessment between 2004 and 2007. We used 70% of the cohort to develop the risk equation, and the remaining 30% to validate the equation. Four Cox proportional hazards models were constructed using cardiovascular events and competing events as dependent variables. The same models were replicated for men and women separately. Fatal and nonfatal events were assessed until 2014. Results: A total of 762 054 individuals were selected. The mean age was 35.48 years and 71.14% were men. Significant risk variables in the model included manual occupations, being a smoker or exsmoker, diabetes mellitus, antihypertensive treatment, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid-lowering treatment; in men, the model also included alcohol consumption, body mass index, a family history of early coronary disease in first-degree relatives, renal failure, and diastolic blood pressure. The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic was 0.84 (95%CI, 0.82-0.85) in men and 0.73 (95%CI, 0.66-0.80) in women. Calibration showed underestimation in low-risk deciles and overestimation in high-risk deciles. Conclusions: The new lifetime cardiovascular risk model has satisfactory discrimination and calibration, with better results in men than in women

Estimation of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease (IBERLIFERISK): A New Tool for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Primary Care.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: To develop a predictive function of lifetime cardiovascular risk, including morbidity and mortality, in a healthy working population in Spain. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study. We selected healthy workers, aged 18 to 65 years, with no history of cardiovascular disease, who underwent a health assessment between 2004 and 2007. We used 70% of the cohort to develop the risk equation, and the remaining 30% to validate the equation. Four Cox proportional hazards models were constructed using cardiovascular events and competing events as dependent variables. The same models were replicated for men and women separately. Fatal and nonfatal events were assessed until 2014. RESULTS: A total of 762 054 individuals were selected. The mean age was 35.48 years and 71.14% were men. Significant risk variables in the model included manual occupations, being a smoker or exsmoker, diabetes mellitus, antihypertensive treatment, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid-lowering treatment; in men, the model also included alcohol consumption, body mass index, a family history of early coronary disease in first-degree relatives, renal failure, and diastolic blood pressure. The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic was 0.84 (95%CI, 0.82-0.85) in men and 0.73 (95%CI, 0.66-0.80) in women. Calibration showed underestimation in low-risk deciles and overestimation in high-risk deciles. CONCLUSIONS: The new lifetime cardiovascular risk model has satisfactory discrimination and calibration, with better results in men than in women.

Periodo prequirúrgico y duración de la incapacidad temporal por contingencias comunes en la hernia inguinal / Pre-surgical period and non-work-related sickness absence due to inguinal hernia

FUNDAMENTO Y OBJETIVO: Analizar la incapacidad temporal por contingencias comunes (ITCC) debida a hernia inguinal y los factores relacionados con su duración, prestando especial atención al periodo prequirúrgico de ITCC. MATERIAL Y MÉTODOS: Estudio de una cohorte prospectiva de 1.003 trabajadores con un episodio de ITCC por hernia inguinal, pertenecientes a la población protegida de una mutua de accidentes de trabajo y enfermedades profesionales. Se evaluaron la duración de la ITCC y las principales variables demográficas, laborales y clínicas potencialmente relacionadas con aquella. Se establecieron predictores de la duración de la ITCC mediante regresión de Cox. RESULTADOS: La duración media de la ITCC por hernia inguinal fue de 68,6 días. Tras el análisis multivariante, tener periodo prequirúrgico de ITCC (HR = 0,35; IC 95%: 0,28-0,43), las ocupaciones manuales (HR = 0,68; IC 95%: 0,49-0,95), pertenecer al sector Construcción (HR = 0,71; IC 95%: 0,58-0,88), la modalidad de pago directo por la mutua en trabajadores por cuenta propia (HR = 0,58; IC 95%: 0,41-0,82) o ajena (HR = 0,51; IC 95%: 0,36-0,72), la presencia de comorbilidad (HR = 0,45; IC 95%: 0,34-0,59) y la realización de la cirugía por una entidad distinta del Sistema Público de Salud o la mutua (HR = 0,76; IC 95%: 0,59-0,97) se asociaron con bajas más largas. La mutua realizó la cirugía, siempre en presencia de periodo de ITCC prequirúrgica (duración media = 47 ± 39,6 días), asociándose periodos de ITCC posquirúrgica más breves (p = 0,001). CONCLUSIONES: La ITCC por hernia inguinal es un fenómeno multifactorial en el que el periodo prequirúrgico desempeña un papel importante. La colaboración entre entidades implicadas en la gestión de la ITCC parece resultar una estrategia efectiva para reducir su duración

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To analyze non-work-related sickness absence (NWR-SA) due to inguinal hernia and the factors related to its duration, paying particular attention to the pre-surgical period of NWR-SA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective cohort study was conducted on 1,003 workers with an episode of NWR-SA due to an inguinal hernia, belonging to the insured population of a mutual insurance company. We assessed the duration of the NWR-SA episodes and the main demographic, occupational and clinical variables potentially related to it. Cox regression analyses were conducted to establish the predictors of NWR-SA duration. RESULTS: The mean duration of NWR-SA due to inguinal hernia was 68.6 days. After multivariate analysis (Cox regression), having a pre-surgical period of NWR-SA (HR = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.28-0.43), manual occupations (HR = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.49-0.95), construction sector (HR = 0.71; 95%CI: 0.58-0.88), direct payment methods by a Mutual Insurance Company during sick leave in self-employed workers (HR = 0.58; 95% CI, 0.41-0.82), or employees (HR = 0.51; 95% CI: 0.36-0.72), comorbidity (HR = 0.45; 95% CI:0.34-0.59), and surgery performed under an entity other than the Public Health System or a mutual insurance company (HR=0,76; 95%CI: 0.59-0.97) were associated with longer NWR-SA. The Mutual Insurance Company always performed the surgery when a pre-surgery period of NWR-SA existed (mean duration = 47 ± 39.6 days); that was associated with shorter periods of post-surgical NWR-SA (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: The NWR-SA due to inguinal hernia is a multifactorial phenomenon in which the pre-surgery period plays an important role. The collaboration between organizations involved in the management of NWR-SA seems to be an effective strategy for reducing its duration

Influence of high cardiovascular risk in asymptomatic people on the duration and cost of sick leave: results of the ICARIA study.

AIMS: We investigated the potential influence of a moderate-to-high cardiovascular (CV) risk (CVR) (defined as a Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation model, or SCORE ≥ 4%), in the absence of an established CV disease, on the duration and cost of CV and non-CV sick leave (SL) resulting from common and occupational accidents or diseases. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a prospective cohort study on 690 135 workers with a 1-year follow-up and examined CV- and non-CV-related SL episodes. To obtain baseline values, CVR factors were initially assessed at the beginning of the year during routine medical examination. The CVR was calculated with the SCORE charts for all subjects. Moderate-to-high CVR was defined as SCORE ≥ 4%. A baseline SCORE ≥ 4% was associated with a higher risk for long-term CV and non-CV SL, as revealed by follow-up assessment. This translated into an increased cost, estimated at €5 801 464.18 per year. Furthermore, pharmacological treatment for hypertension or hyperlipidaemia was significantly associated with longer SL duration. CONCLUSION: Moderate-to-high CVR in asymptomatic subjects was significantly associated with the duration and cost of CV and non-CV SL. These results constitute the first body of evidence that the SCORE charts can be used to identify people with a non-established CV disease, which might ultimately translate into more lost workdays and therefore increased cost for society.

[Pre-surgical period and non-work-related sickness absence due to inguinal hernia]. / Periodo prequirúrgico y duración de la incapacidad temporal por contingencias comunes en la hernia inguinal.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To analyze non-work-related sickness absence (NWR-SA) due to inguinal hernia and the factors related to its duration, paying particular attention to the pre-surgical period of NWR-SA. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective cohort study was conducted on 1,003 workers with an episode of NWR-SA due to an inguinal hernia, belonging to the insured population of a mutual insurance company. We assessed the duration of the NWR-SA episodes and the main demographic, occupational and clinical variables potentially related to it. Cox regression analyses were conducted to establish the predictors of NWR-SA duration. RESULTS: The mean duration of NWR-SA due to inguinal hernia was 68.6 days. After multivariate analysis (Cox regression), having a pre-surgical period of NWR-SA (HR = 0.35; 95%CI: 0.28-0.43), manual occupations (HR=0.68; 95%CI: 0.49-0.95), construction sector (HR=0.71; 95%CI: 0.58-0.88), direct payment methods by a Mutual Insurance Company during sick leave in self-employed workers (HR=0.58; 95%CI, 0.41-0.82), or employees (HR=0.51; 95%CI: 0.36-0.72), comorbidity (HR=0.45; 95%CI:0.34-0.59), and surgery performed under an entity other than the Public Health System or a mutual insurance company (HR=0,76; 95%CI: 0.59-0.97) were associated with longer NWR-SA. The Mutual Insurance Company always performed the surgery when a pre-surgery period of NWR-SA existed (mean duration=47 ±39.6 days); that was associated with shorter periods of post-surgical NWR-SA (P=.001). CONCLUSIONS: The NWR-SA due to inguinal hernia is a multifactorial phenomenon in which the pre-surgery period plays an important role. The collaboration between organizations involved in the management of NWR-SA seems to be an effective strategy for reducing its duration.

Predictores de la duración de la incapacidad temporal por contingenciascomunes en los trastornos de ansiedad / Predictors of the duration of non-work-related sick leave due to anxiety disorders

Objetivos: Analizar la duración de la incapacidad temporal por contingencias comunes (ITCC) en lostrastornos de ansiedad e identificar variables demográficas, laborales y clínicas que puedan contribuir asu predicción.Métodos: Estudio de una cohorte prospectiva de 1161 trabajadores con un episodio de ITCC por trastornode ansiedad, pertenecientes a la población protegida de una mutua de accidentes de trabajo y enfermedades profesionales. Se evaluaron la duración de la ITCC y las principales variables demográficas, laboralesy clínicas potencialmente relacionadas con ésta. Se realizó un seguimiento de todos los procesos hasta elalta. Se establecieron predictores de la duración de la ITCC mediante regresión de Cox.Resultados: La duración mediana de la ITCC en los trastornos de ansiedad fue de 83 días. Tras el análisismultivariado, tener más de 35 anos, un menor nivel de estudios (primarios, secundarios o titulación ˜media frente a titulación superior), la existencia de comorbilidad y las situaciones de desempleo quesobrevienen durante la baja, se asociaron de forma significativa con incrementos en la duración de laITCC (p <0,05). Por el contrario, encontrarse separado o divorciado se relacionó con una reincorporaciónlaboral más precoz (p <0,05).Conclusiones: Los trastornos de ansiedad se asocian con periodos de ITCC largos respecto a otras enfermedades y a los tiempos estándar de duración. Variables demográficas, laborales y clínicas presentes en laevaluación inicial del proceso permiten identificar grupos con mayor riesgo de que la ITCC se prolongue,y que requerirán estrategias orientadas a facilitar la reincorporación laboral (AU)

Objectives: To analyze the duration of non-work-related sick leave due to anxiety disorders and to identifydemographic, occupational and clinical variables that may contribute to its prediction.Methods: We performed a prospective cohort study of 1,161 workers with an episode of non-workrelated sick leave due to an anxiety disorder, belonging to the insured population of a mutual insurancecompany. We assessed the duration of non-work-related sick leave episodes and the main potentiallyrelated demographic, occupational and clinical variables. All non-work-related sick leave processes werefollowed-up until discharge. Cox regression analyses were conducted to establish the predictors of nonwork-related sick leave duration.Results: The median duration of non-work-related sick leave due to anxiety disorders was 83 days. In amultivariate analysis, the following factors were identified as being significantly associated with increasesin the duration of sick leave (p <0.05): age of over 35 years, lower educational level (primary schoolstudies, secondary school studies or high-school diploma vs. university degree), and the existence ofcomorbidity and unemployment occurring during the sick leave. In contrast, being separated or divorcedwas associated with an earlier return to work (p <0.05).Conclusions: Anxiety disorders are associated with long periods of non-work-related sick leave comparedwith other disorders and standard time duration. Demographic, occupational and clinical variables collected at the initial assessment of the sick leave episode would help to identify groups with an increasedrisk of prolonged sick leave, requiring strategies to facilitate return to work (AU)

[Predictors of the duration of non-work-related sick leave due to anxiety disorders]. / Predictores de la duración de la incapacidad temporal por contingencias comunes en los trastornos de ansiedad.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze the duration of non-work-related sick leave due to anxiety disorders and to identify demographic, occupational and clinical variables that may contribute to its prediction. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of 1,161 workers with an episode of non-work-related sick leave due to an anxiety disorder, belonging to the insured population of a mutual insurance company. We assessed the duration of non-work-related sick leave episodes and the main potentially related demographic, occupational and clinical variables. All non-work-related sick leave processes were followed-up until discharge. Cox regression analyses were conducted to establish the predictors of non-work-related sick leave duration. RESULTS: The median duration of non-work-related sick leave due to anxiety disorders was 83 days. In a multivariate analysis, the following factors were identified as being significantly associated with increases in the duration of sick leave (p <0.05): age of over 35 years, lower educational level (primary school studies, secondary school studies or high-school diploma vs. university degree), and the existence of comorbidity and unemployment occurring during the sick leave. In contrast, being separated or divorced was associated with an earlier return to work (p <0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Anxiety disorders are associated with long periods of non-work-related sick leave compared with other disorders and standard time duration. Demographic, occupational and clinical variables collected at the initial assessment of the sick leave episode would help to identify groups with an increased risk of prolonged sick leave, requiring strategies to facilitate return to work.