ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To provide a proof-of-concept analysis of the appropriateness and performance of ChatGPT-4 to triage, synthesize differential diagnoses, and generate treatment plans concerning common presentations of knee pain. METHODS: Twenty knee complaints warranting triage and expanded scenarios were input into ChatGPT-4, with memory cleared prior to each new input to mitigate bias. For the 10 triage complaints, ChatGPT-4 was asked to generate a differential diagnosis that was graded for accuracy and suitability in comparison to a differential created by 2 orthopaedic sports medicine physicians. For the 10 clinical scenarios, ChatGPT-4 was prompted to provide treatment guidance for the patient, which was again graded. To test the higher-order capabilities of ChatGPT-4, further inquiry into these specific management recommendations was performed and graded. RESULTS: All ChatGPT-4 diagnoses were deemed appropriate within the spectrum of potential pathologies on a differential. The top diagnosis on the differential was identical between surgeons and ChatGPT-4 for 70% of scenarios, and the top diagnosis provided by the surgeon appeared as either the first or second diagnosis in 90% of scenarios. Overall, 16 of 30 diagnoses (53.3%) in the differential were identical. When provided with 10 expanded vignettes with a single diagnosis, the accuracy of ChatGPT-4 increased to 100%, with the suitability of management graded as appropriate in 90% of cases. Specific information pertaining to conservative management, surgical approaches, and related treatments was appropriate and accurate in 100% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: ChatGPT-4 provided clinically reasonable diagnoses to triage patient complaints of knee pain due to various underlying conditions that were generally consistent with differentials provided by sports medicine physicians. Diagnostic performance was enhanced when providing additional information, allowing ChatGPT-4 to reach high predictive accuracy for recommendations concerning management and treatment options. However, ChatGPT-4 may show clinically important error rates for diagnosis depending on prompting strategy and information provided; therefore, further refinements are necessary prior to implementation into clinical workflows. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Although ChatGPT-4 is increasingly being used by patients for health information, the potential for ChatGPT-4 to serve as a clinical support tool is unclear. In this study, we found that ChatGPT-4 was frequently able to diagnose and triage knee complaints appropriately as rated by sports medicine surgeons, suggesting that it may eventually be a useful clinical support tool.
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BACKGROUND: Outcomes after posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) reconstruction (PCLR) have been reported to be inferior to those of anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. Furthermore, combined ligament injuries have been reported to have inferior outcomes compared with isolated PCLR. PURPOSE/HYPOTHESIS: The purpose of this study was to report on PCLR outcomes and failure rates and compare these outcomes between isolated PCLR and multiligament knee surgery involving the PCL. The hypothesis was that combined PCL injury reconstruction would have higher rates of subjective failure and revision relative to isolated PCLR. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: Patients with primary PCLR with or without concomitant ligament injuries registered in the Norwegian Knee Ligament Registry between 2004 and 2021 were included. Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) totals were collected preoperatively and at 2 years and 5 years postoperatively. The primary outcome measure was failure, defined as either a revision surgery or a KOOS Quality of Life (QoL) subscale score <44. RESULTS: The sample included 631 primary PCLR procedures, with 185 (29%) isolated PCLR procedures and 446 (71%) combined reconstructions, with a median follow-up time of 7.3 and 7.9 years, respectively. The majority of patients had poor preoperative knee function as defined by a KOOS QoL score <44 (90.1% isolated PCLR, 85.7% combined PCL injuries; P = .24). Subjective outcomes improved significantly at 2- and 5-year follow-up compared with preoperative assessments in both groups (P < .001); however, at 2 years, 49.5% and 46.5% had subjective failure (KOOS QoL <44) for isolated PCLR and combined PCLR, respectively (P = .61). At 5 years, the subjective failure rates of isolated and combined PCLR were 46.7% and 34.2%, respectively (P = .04). No significant difference was found in revision rates between the groups at 5 years (1.9% and 4.6%, respectively; P = .07). CONCLUSION: Patients who underwent PCLR had improved KOOS QoL scores relative to their preoperative state. However, the subjective failure rate was high for both isolated and multiligament PCLR. Within the first 2 years after surgery, patients who undergo isolated PCLR can be expected to have similar failure rates to patients who undergo combined ligament reconstructions.
Subject(s)
Posterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction , Registries , Reoperation , Treatment Failure , Humans , Female , Male , Adult , Norway , Reoperation/statistics & numerical data , Middle Aged , Quality of Life , Young Adult , Posterior Cruciate Ligament/surgery , Posterior Cruciate Ligament/injuries , Knee Injuries/surgery , AdolescentABSTRACT
Machine learning (ML) is changing the way health care is practiced and recent applications of these novel statistical techniques have started to impact orthopaedic sports medicine. Machine learning enables the analysis of large volumes of data to establish complex relationships between "input" and "output" variables. These relationships may be more complex than could be established through traditional statistical analysis and can lead to the ability to predict the "output" with high levels of accuracy. Supervised learning is the most common ML approach for healthcare data and recent studies have developed algorithms to predict patient-specific outcome after surgical procedures such as hip arthroscopy and anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. Deep learning is a higher-level ML approach that facilitates the processing and interpretation of complex datasets through artificial neural networks that are inspired by the way the human brain processes information. In orthopaedic sports medicine, deep learning has primarily been used for automatic image (computer vision) and text (natural language processing) interpretation. While applications in orthopaedic sports medicine have been increasing exponentially, one significant barrier to widespread adoption of ML remains clinician unfamiliarity with the associated methods and concepts. The goal of this review is to introduce these concepts, review current machine learning models in orthopaedic sport medicine, and discuss future opportunities for innovation within the specialty.
Subject(s)
Artificial Intelligence , Machine Learning , Sports Medicine , Humans , Sports Medicine/methods , Deep Learning , Neural Networks, Computer , Algorithms , Natural Language ProcessingABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Most clinical machine learning applications use a supervised learning approach using labeled variables. In contrast, unsupervised learning enables pattern detection without a prespecified outcome. PURPOSE/HYPOTHESIS: The purpose of this study was to apply unsupervised learning to the combined Danish and Norwegian knee ligament register (KLR) with the goal of detecting distinct subgroups. It was hypothesized that resulting groups would have differing rates of subsequent anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) revision. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: K-prototypes clustering was performed on the complete case KLR data. After performing the unsupervised learning analysis, the authors defined clinically relevant characteristics of each cluster using variable summaries, surgeons' domain knowledge, and Shapley Additive exPlanations analysis. RESULTS: Five clusters were identified. Cluster 1 (revision rate, 9.9%) patients were young (mean age, 22 years; SD, 6 years), received hamstring tendon (HT) autograft (91%), and had lower baseline Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) Sport and Recreation (Sports) scores (mean, 25.0; SD, 15.6). Cluster 2 (revision rate, 6.9%) patients received HT autograft (89%) and had higher baseline KOOS Sports scores (mean, 67.2; SD, 16.5). Cluster 3 (revision rate, 4.7%) patients received bone-patellar tendon-bone (BPTB) or quadriceps tendon (QT) autograft (94%) and had higher baseline KOOS Sports scores (mean, 65.8; SD, 16.4). Cluster 4 (revision rate, 4.1%) patients received BPTB or QT autograft (88%) and had low baseline KOOS Sports scores (mean, 20.5; SD, 14.0). Cluster 5 (revision rate, 3.1%) patients were older (mean age, 42 years; SD, 7 years), received HT autograft (89%), and had low baseline KOOS Sports scores (mean, 23.4; SD, 17.6). CONCLUSION: Unsupervised learning identified 5 distinct KLR patient subgroups and each grouping was associated with a unique ACLR revision rate. Patients can be approximately classified into 1 of the 5 clusters based on only 3 variables: age, graft choice (HT, BPTB, or QT autograft), and preoperative KOOS Sports subscale score. If externally validated, the resulting groupings may enable quick risk stratification for future patients undergoing ACLR in the clinical setting. Patients in cluster 1 are considered high risk (9.9%), cluster 2 patients medium risk (6.9%), and patients in clusters 3 to 5 low risk (3.1%-4.7%) for revision ACLR.
Subject(s)
Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries , Hamstring Tendons , Patellar Ligament , Humans , Young Adult , Adult , Cohort Studies , Unsupervised Machine Learning , Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries/surgery , Autografts , Patellar Ligament/transplantation , Hamstring Tendons/transplantation , Transplantation, Autologous , DenmarkABSTRACT
PURPOSE: A machine learning-based anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) revision prediction model has been developed using Norwegian Knee Ligament Register (NKLR) data, but lacks external validation outside Scandinavia. This study aimed to assess the external validity of the NKLR model (https://swastvedt.shinyapps.io/calculator_rev/) using the STABILITY 1 randomized clinical trial (RCT) data set. The hypothesis was that model performance would be similar. METHODS: The NKLR Cox Lasso model was selected for external validation owing to its superior performance in the original study. STABILITY 1 patients with all five predictors required by the Cox Lasso model were included. The STABILITY 1 RCT was a prospective study which randomized patients to receive either a hamstring tendon autograft (HT) alone or HT plus a lateral extra-articular tenodesis (LET). Since all patients in the STABILITY 1 trial received HT ± LET, three configurations were tested: 1: all patients coded as HT, 2: HT + LET group coded as bone-patellar tendon-bone (BPTB) autograft, 3: HT + LET group coded as unknown/other graft choice. Model performance was assessed via concordance and calibration. RESULTS: In total, 591/618 (95.6%) STABILITY 1 patients were eligible for inclusion, with 39 undergoing revisions within 2 years (6.6%). Model performance was best when patients receiving HT + LET were coded as BPTB. Concordance was similar to the original NKLR prediction model for 1- and 2-year revision prediction (STABILITY: 0.71; NKLR: 0.68-0.69). Concordance 95% confidence interval (CI) ranged from 0.63 to 0.79. The model was well calibrated for 1-year prediction while the 2-year prediction demonstrated evidence of miscalibration. CONCLUSION: When patients in STABILITY 1 who received HT + LET were coded as BPTB in the NKLR prediction model, concordance was similar to the index study. However, due to a wide 95% CI, the true performance of the prediction model with this Canadian and European cohort is unclear and a larger data set is required to definitively determine the external validity. Further, better calibration for 1-year predictions aligns with general prediction modelling challenges over longer periods. While not a large enough sample size to elicit the true accuracy and external validity of the prediction model when applied to North American patients, this analysis provides more support for the notion that HT plus LET performs similarly to BPTB reconstruction. In addition, despite the wide confidence interval, this study suggests optimism regarding the accuracy of the model when applied outside of Scandinavia. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level 3, cohort study.
Subject(s)
Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries , Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction , Hamstring Tendons , Patellar Ligament , Humans , Canada , Knee Joint/surgery , Anterior Cruciate Ligament/surgery , Patellar Ligament/surgery , Hamstring Tendons/transplantation , Transplantation, Autologous , Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries/surgery , Autografts/surgeryABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To develop a machine learning model capable of identifying subscapularis tears before surgery based on imaging and physical examination findings. METHODS: Between 2010 and 2020, 202 consecutive shoulders underwent arthroscopic rotator cuff repair by a single surgeon. Patient demographics, physical examination findings (including range of motion, weakness with internal rotation, lift/push-off test, belly press test, and bear hug test), and imaging (including direct and indirect signs of tearing, biceps status, fatty atrophy, cystic changes, and other similar findings) were included for model creation. RESULTS: Sixty percent of the shoulders had partial or full thickness tears of the subscapularis verified during surgery (83% of these were upper third). Using only preoperative imaging-related parameters, the XGBoost model demonstrated excellent performance at predicting subscapularis tears (c-statistic, 0.84; accuracy, 0.85; F1 score, 0.87). The top 5 features included direct signs related to the presence of tearing as evidenced on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (changes in tendon morphology and signal), as well as the quality of the MRI and biceps pathology. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, machine learning was successful in predicting subscapularis tears by MRI alone in 85% of patients, and this accuracy did not decrease by isolating the model to the top features. The top five features included direct signs related to the presence of tearing as evidenced on MRI (changes in tendon morphology and signal), as well as the quality of the MRI and biceps pathology. Last, in advanced modeling, the addition of physical examination or patient characteristics did not make a significant difference in the predictive ability of this model. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III, diagnostic case-control study.
Subject(s)
Lacerations , Rotator Cuff Injuries , Humans , Rotator Cuff/diagnostic imaging , Rotator Cuff/surgery , Rotator Cuff Injuries/diagnostic imaging , Rotator Cuff Injuries/surgery , Case-Control Studies , Physical Examination/methods , Shoulder/surgery , Rupture , Arthroscopy/methods , Magnetic Resonance ImagingABSTRACT
Background: Despite the ongoing opioid epidemic, most patients are still prescribed a significant number of opioid medications for pain management after arthroscopic surgery. There is a need for consensus among orthopaedic surgeons and solutions to aid providers in analgesic strategies that reduce the use of opioid pain medications. Purpose: This position statement was developed with a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of exclusively randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to synthesize the best available evidence for managing acute postoperative pain after arthroscopic surgery. Study Design: Position statement. Methods: The Embase, MEDLINE, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched from inception until August 10, 2022. Keywords included arthroscopy, opioids, analgesia, and pain, and associated variations. We included exclusively RCTs on adult patients to gather the best available evidence for managing acute postoperative pain after arthroscopic surgery. Patient characteristics, pain, and opioid data were extracted, data were analyzed, and trial bias was evaluated. Results: A total of 21 RCTs were identified related to the prescription of opioid-sparing pain medication after arthroscopic surgery. The following recommendations regarding noninvasive, postoperative pain management strategies were made: (1) multimodal oral nonopioid analgesic regimens-including at least 1 of acetaminophen-a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug-can significantly reduce opioid consumption with no change in pain scores; (2) cryotherapy is likely to help with pain management, although the evidence on the optimal method of application (continuous-flow vs ice pack application) is unclear; (3) and (4) limited RCT evidence supports the efficacy of transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation and relaxation exercises in reducing opioid consumption after arthroscopy; and (5) limited RCT evidence exists against the efficacy of transdermal lidocaine patches in reducing opioid consumption. Conclusion: A range of nonopioid strategies exist that can reduce postarthroscopic procedural opioid consumption with equivalent vocal pain outcomes. Optimal strategies include multimodal analgesia with education and restricted/reduced opioid prescription.
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BACKGROUND: Clinical tools based on machine learning analysis now exist for outcome prediction after primary anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR). Relying partly on data volume, the general principle is that more data may lead to improved model accuracy. PURPOSE/HYPOTHESIS: The purpose was to apply machine learning to a combined data set from the Norwegian and Danish knee ligament registers (NKLR and DKRR, respectively), with the aim of producing an algorithm that can predict revision surgery with improved accuracy relative to a previously published model developed using only the NKLR. The hypothesis was that the additional patient data would result in an algorithm that is more accurate. STUDY DESIGN: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: Machine learning analysis was performed on combined data from the NKLR and DKRR. The primary outcome was the probability of revision ACLR within 1, 2, and 5 years. Data were split randomly into training sets (75%) and test sets (25%). There were 4 machine learning models examined: Cox lasso, random survival forest, gradient boosting, and super learner. Concordance and calibration were calculated for all 4 models. RESULTS: The data set included 62,955 patients in which 5% underwent a revision surgical procedure with a mean follow-up of 7.6 ± 4.5 years. The 3 nonparametric models (random survival forest, gradient boosting, and super learner) performed best, demonstrating moderate concordance (0.67 [95% CI, 0.64-0.70]), and were well calibrated at 1 and 2 years. Model performance was similar to that of the previously published model (NKLR-only model: concordance, 0.67-0.69; well calibrated). CONCLUSION: Machine learning analysis of the combined NKLR and DKRR enabled prediction of the revision ACLR risk with moderate accuracy. However, the resulting algorithms were less user-friendly and did not demonstrate superior accuracy in comparison with the previously developed model based on patients from the NKLR alone, despite the analysis of nearly 63,000 patients. This ceiling effect suggests that simply adding more patients to current national knee ligament registers is unlikely to improve predictive capability and may prompt future changes to increase variable inclusion.
Subject(s)
Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries , Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction , Humans , Anterior Cruciate Ligament/surgery , Cohort Studies , Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries/surgery , Knee Joint/surgery , Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction/methods , Reoperation , Norway/epidemiology , DenmarkABSTRACT
The application and interpretation of patient-reported outcome measures (PROM), following knee injuries, pathologies, and interventions, can be challenging. In recent years, the literature has been enriched with metrics to facilitate our understanding and interpretation of these outcome measures. Two commonly utilized tools include the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) and the patient acceptable symptoms state (PASS). These measures have demonstrated clinical value, however, they have often been under- or mis-reported. It is paramount to use them to understand the clinical significance of any statistically significant results. Still, it remains important to know their caveats and limitations. In this focused report on MCID and PASS, their definitions, methods of calculations, clinical relevance, interpretations, and limitations are reviewed and presented in a simple approach.
Subject(s)
Minimal Clinically Important Difference , Orthopedic Procedures , Humans , Clinical Relevance , Treatment Outcome , Outcome Assessment, Health Care , Patient Reported Outcome MeasuresABSTRACT
Deep learning has the potential to be one of the most transformative technologies to impact orthopedic surgery. Substantial innovation in this area has occurred over the past 5 years, but clinically meaningful advancements remain limited by a disconnect between clinical and technical experts. That is, it is likely that few orthopedic surgeons possess both the clinical knowledge necessary to identify orthopedic problems, and the technical knowledge needed to implement deep learning-based solutions. To maximize the utilization of rapidly advancing technologies derived from deep learning models, orthopedic surgeons should understand the steps needed to design, organize, implement, and evaluate a deep learning project and its workflow. Equipping surgeons with this knowledge is the objective of this three-part editorial review. Part I described the processes involved in defining the problem, team building, data acquisition, curation, labeling, and establishing the ground truth. Building on that, this review (Part II) provides guidance on pre-processing and augmenting the data, making use of open-source libraries/toolkits, and selecting the required hardware to implement the pipeline. Special considerations regarding model training and evaluation unique to deep learning models relative to "shallow" machine learning models are also reviewed. Finally, guidance pertaining to the clinical deployment of deep learning models in the real world is provided. As in Part I, the focus is on applications of deep learning for computer vision and imaging.
Subject(s)
Deep Learning , Orthopedic Surgeons , Surgeons , Humans , Artificial Intelligence , Machine LearningABSTRACT
Natural language processing (NLP) describes the broad field of artificial intelligence by which computers are trained to understand and generate human language. Within healthcare research, NLP is commonly used for variable extraction and classification/cohort identification tasks. While these tools are becoming increasingly popular and available as both open-source and commercial products, there is a paucity of the literature within the orthopedic space describing the key tasks within these powerful pipelines. Curation and navigation of the electronic medical record are becoming increasingly onerous, and it is important for physicians and other healthcare professionals to understand potential methods of harnessing this large data resource. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of the tasks required to develop an NLP pipeline for orthopedic research and present recent examples of successful implementations.
Subject(s)
Orthopedic Procedures , Orthopedics , Humans , Artificial Intelligence , Natural Language Processing , LanguageABSTRACT
Deep learning has a profound impact on daily life. As Orthopedics makes use of this rapid escalation in technology, Orthopedic surgeons will need to take leadership roles on deep learning projects. Moreover, surgeons must possess an understanding of what is necessary to design and implement deep learning-based project pipelines. This review provides a practical guide for the Orthopedic surgeon to understand the steps needed to design, develop, and deploy a deep learning pipeline for clinical applications. A detailed description of the processes involved in defining the problem, building the team, acquiring and curating the data, labeling the data, establishing the ground truth, pre-processing and augmenting the data, and selecting the required hardware is provided. In addition, an overview of unique considerations involved in the training and evaluation of deep learning models is provided. This review strives to provide surgeons with the groundwork needed to identify gaps in the clinical landscape that deep learning models may be able to fill and equips them with the knowledge needed to lead an interdisciplinary team through the process of creating novel deep-learning-based solutions to fill those gaps.
Subject(s)
Deep Learning , Orthopedic Procedures , Orthopedic Surgeons , Orthopedics , Surgeons , HumansABSTRACT
Supervised learning is the most common form of machine learning utilized in medical research. It is used to predict outcomes of interest or classify positive and/or negative cases with a known ground truth. Supervised learning describes a spectrum of techniques, ranging from traditional regression modeling to more complex tree boosting, which are becoming increasingly prevalent as the focus on "big data" develops. While these tools are becoming increasingly popular and powerful, there is a paucity of literature available that describe the strengths and limitations of these different modeling techniques. Typically, there is no formal training for health care professionals in the use of machine learning models. As machine learning applications throughout medicine increase, it is important that physicians and other health care professionals better understand the processes underlying application of these techniques. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of commonly used supervised learning techniques with recent case examples within the orthopedic literature. An additional goal is to address disparities in the understanding of these methods to improve communication within and between research teams.
Subject(s)
Orthopedic Procedures , Supervised Machine Learning , Humans , Algorithms , Machine LearningABSTRACT
Multivariable regression is a fundamental tool that drives observational research in orthopaedic surgery. However, regression analyses are not always implemented correctly. This study presents a basic overview of regression analyses and reviews frequent points of confusion. Topics include linear, logistic, and time-to-event regressions, causal inference, confounders, overfitting, missing data, multicollinearity, interactions, and key differences between multivariable versus multivariate regression. The goal is to provide clarity regarding the use and interpretation of multivariable analyses for those attempting to increase their statistical literacy in orthopaedic research.
Subject(s)
Orthopedic Procedures , Humans , Multivariate Analysis , Regression Analysis , Models, StatisticalABSTRACT
PURPOSE: Accurate prediction of outcome following hip arthroscopy is challenging and machine learning has the potential to improve our predictive capability. The purpose of this study was to determine if machine learning analysis of the Danish Hip Arthroscopy Registry (DHAR) can develop a clinically meaningful calculator for predicting the probability of a patient undergoing subsequent revision surgery following primary hip arthroscopy. METHODS: Machine learning analysis was performed on the DHAR. The primary outcome for the models was probability of revision hip arthroscopy within 1, 2, and/or 5 years after primary hip arthroscopy. Data were split randomly into training (75%) and test (25%) sets. Four models intended for these types of data were tested: Cox elastic net, random survival forest, gradient boosted regression (GBM), and super learner. These four models represent a range of approaches to statistical details like variable selection and model complexity. Model performance was assessed by calculating calibration and area under the curve (AUC). Analysis was performed using only variables available in the pre-operative clinical setting and then repeated to compare model performance using all variables available in the registry. RESULTS: In total, 5581 patients were included for analysis. Average follow-up time or time-to-revision was 4.25 years (± 2.51) years and overall revision rate was 11%. All four models were generally well calibrated and demonstrated concordance in the moderate range when restricted to only pre-operative variables (0.62-0.67), and when considering all variables available in the registry (0.63-0.66). The 95% confidence intervals for model concordance were wide for both analyses, ranging from a low of 0.53 to a high of 0.75, indicating uncertainty about the true accuracy of the models. CONCLUSION: The association between pre-surgical factors and outcome following hip arthroscopy is complex. Machine learning analysis of the DHAR produced a model capable of predicting revision surgery risk following primary hip arthroscopy that demonstrated moderate accuracy but likely limited clinical usefulness. Prediction accuracy would benefit from enhanced data quality within the registry and this preliminary study holds promise for future model generation as the DHAR matures. Ongoing collection of high-quality data by the DHAR should enable improved patient-specific outcome prediction that is generalisable across the population. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III.
Subject(s)
Femoracetabular Impingement , Humans , Femoracetabular Impingement/surgery , Arthroscopy , Treatment Outcome , Registries , Machine Learning , Hip Joint/surgery , Retrospective StudiesABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES: Accurate prediction of outcome following anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction is challenging, and machine learning has the potential to improve our predictive capability. The purpose of this study was to determine if machine learning analysis of the Norwegian Knee Ligament Register (NKLR) can (1) identify the most important risk factors associated with subjective failure of ACL reconstruction and (2) develop a clinically meaningful calculator for predicting the probability of subjective failure following ACL reconstruction. METHODS: Machine learning analysis was performed on the NKLR. All patients with 2-year follow-up data were included. The primary outcome was the probability of subjective failure 2 years following primary surgery, defined as a Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) Quality of Life (QoL) subscale score of <44. Data were split randomly into training (75%) and test (25%) sets. Four models intended for this type of data were tested: Lasso logistic regression, random forest, generalized additive model (GAM), and gradient boosted regression (GBM). These four models represent a range of approaches to statistical details like variable selection and model complexity. Model performance was assessed by calculating calibration and area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: Of the 20,818 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 11,630 (56%) completed the 2-year follow-up KOOS QoL questionnaire. Of those with complete KOOS data, 22% reported subjective failure. The lasso logistic regression, GBM, and GAM all demonstrated AUC in the moderate range (0.67-0.68), with the GAM performing best (0.68; 95% CI 0.64-0.71). Lasso logistic regression, GBM, and the GAM were well-calibrated, while the random forest showed evidence of mis-calibration. The GAM was selected to create an in-clinic calculator to predict subjective failure risk at a patient-specific level (https://swastvedt.shinyapps.io/calculator_koosqol/). CONCLUSION: Machine learning analysis of the NKLR can predict subjective failure risk following ACL reconstruction with fair accuracy. This algorithm supports the creation of an easy-to-use in-clinic calculator for point-of-care risk stratification. Clinicians can use this calculator to estimate subjective failure risk at a patient-specific level when discussing outcome expectations preoperatively. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level-III Retrospective review of a prospective national register.
Subject(s)
Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries , Anterior Cruciate Ligament/surgery , Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries/epidemiology , Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injuries/surgery , Humans , Machine Learning , Patient Reported Outcome Measures , Prospective Studies , Quality of LifeABSTRACT
Applications of artificial intelligence, specifically machine learning, are becoming increasingly popular in Orthopaedic Surgery, and medicine as a whole. This growing interest is shared by data scientists and physicians alike. However, there is an asymmetry of understanding of the developmental process and potential applications of machine learning. As new technology will undoubtedly affect clinical practice in the coming years, it is important for physicians to understand how these processes work. The purpose of this paper is to provide clarity and a general framework for building and assessing machine learning models.
Subject(s)
Artificial Intelligence , Orthopedics , Humans , Machine LearningABSTRACT
Due to its frequent misuse, the p value has become a point of contention in the research community. In this editorial, we seek to clarify some of the common misconceptions about p values and the hazardous implications associated with misunderstanding this commonly used statistical concept. This article will discuss issues related to p value interpretation in addition to problems such as p-hacking and statistical fragility; we will also offer some thoughts on addressing these issues. The aim of this editorial is to provide clarity around the concept of statistical significance for those attempting to increase their statistical literacy in Orthopedic research.
Subject(s)
Orthopedics , HumansABSTRACT
Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) may be described as advanced statistical techniques using algorithms to "learn" to evaluate and predict relationships between input and results without explicit human programming, often with high accuracy. The potentials and pitfalls of ML continue to be explored as predictive modeling grows in popularity. While use of and optimism for AI continues to increase in orthopaedic surgery, there remains little high-quality evidence of its ability to improve patient outcome. It is up to us as clinicians to provide context for ML models and guide the use of these technologies to optimize the outcome for our patients. Barriers to widespread adoption of ML include poor quality data, limits to compliant data sharing, few clinicians who are expert in ML statistical techniques, and computing costs including technology, infrastructure, personnel, energy, and updates.