Public Mass Shootings: Counterfactual Trend Analysis of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban.

Background: Assault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects. Objective: This study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022. Methods: We used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995-2004) and the period after its removal (2005-2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place. Results: The overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB. Conclusions: The FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings.

Neighborhood Racial and Ethnic Predominance, Child Opportunity, and Violence-Related Mortality among Children and Adolescents in Chicago.

Our objective was to determine whether Child Opportunity Index (COI), a measure of neighborhood socioeconomic and built environment specific to children, mediated the relationship of census tract Black or Hispanic predominance with increased rates of census tract violence-related mortality. The hypothesis was that COI would partially mediate the relationship. This cross-sectional study combined data from the American Community Survey 5-year estimates, the COI 2.0, and the Illinois Violent Death Reporting System 2015-2019 for the City of Chicago. Individuals ages 0-19 years were included. The primary exposure was census tract Black, Hispanic, White, and other race predominance (> 50% of population). The primary outcome was census tract violence-related mortality. A mediation analysis was performed to evaluate the role of COI as a potential mediator. Multivariable logistic regression modeling census tract violence-related mortality demonstrated a direct effect of census tract Black predominance (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30-5.14) on violence-related mortality compared to White predominance. There was no association of census tract Hispanic predominance with violence-related mortality compared to White predominance (aOR 1.57, 95% CI 0.88-2.84). Approximately 64.9% (95% CI 60.2-80.0%) of the effect of census tract Black predominance and 67.9% (95% CI 61.2-200%) of the effect of census tract Hispanic predominance on violence-related mortality was indirect via COI. COI partially mediated the effect of census tract Black and Hispanic predominance on census tract violence-related mortality. Interventions that target neighborhood social and economic factors should be considered to reduce violence-related mortality among children and adolescents.

Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Central Asia: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.

BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in Central Asia we conducted during the first year of the pandemic by providing 2 additional years of data for the region. The historical context provided through additional data can inform regional preparedness and early responses to infectious outbreaks of either the SARS-CoV-2 virus or future pathogens in Central Asia. OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Central Asia when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in Central Asia. METHODS: Traditional surveillance metrics, including counts and rates of COVID-19 transmissions and deaths, and enhanced surveillance indicators, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, were used to measure shifts in the pandemic. To identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were relatively small in magnitude (0.125 and 0.347, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, were both significant and negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became entirely insignificant for the first time in March 2023. CONCLUSIONS: Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in Central Asia, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for 7 months ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 appeared to be endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of a pandemic. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics suggest the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration.

Substitution of Methods in Suicide Deaths - Firearm Injury and Hanging.

Background: Prevention strategies for suicide emphasize restrictions on firearm access. These restrictions may lose efficacy if individuals substitute other lethal suicide methods. Aims: The objective of this study is to determine the extent to which individuals who die by suicide in the United States substitute hanging for firearm injury. Methods: This study is a repeated cross-sectional analysis of suicide deaths in the United States from 2003 to 2021. Multiple regression was used to estimate the effect of firearm access proxies on individual suicide methods (hanging vs. firearm injury). Results: The probability of death by hanging was significantly and negatively associated with proxies of firearm access. Limitations: This study does not compare crude rates of suicide by state, which rise on average with rates of firearm ownership. The National Violent Death Reporting System expanded over the sample period, so early years have incomplete ascertainment. Rates of gun ownership and gun safety law scales are measured as proxies. Conclusions: Although means restriction around firearm access is a critical tool for suicide prevention, complementary strategies for prevention around hanging merit further study.

Sub-Saharan Africa Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.

BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) we first conducted in 2020 by providing two additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in SSA when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in SSA. METHODS: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al. (2021), this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a one-sided t-test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of ten. We ran the test iteratively with a rolling, six month-window of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region remained well below the outbreak threshold before and after the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. The 7-day persistence coefficient remained somewhat large (1.11) and statistically significant. However, both shift parameters for the weeks around the WHO declaration were negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases had become recently smaller. From November 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to ten was insignificant for the entire sample period. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in SSA, the region never reached outbreak status, and the weekly transmission rate had remained below one case per 100,000 population for well over one year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of a pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended in SSA by the time of the WHO declaration.

South Asia's COVID-19 History and Surveillance: Updated Epidemiological Assessment.

BACKGROUND: This study updates our findings from the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance we first conducted in South Asia in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. We assess whether COVID-19 had transitioned from pandemic to endemic at the point the World Health Organization (WHO) ended the public health emergency status for COVID-19 on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in South Asia around the WHO declaration. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in South Asia. METHODS: In addition to updating the traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from our original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed or transmission rate per 100,000 population was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for over a year by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive (1.168), the 7-day persistence coefficient was negative (-0.185), suggesting limited cluster effects in which cases on a given day predict cases 7 days forward. Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any overall change in the persistence measure around the time of the WHO declaration. From December of 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 was statistically insignificant across the entire pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continued to circulate in South Asia, the rate of transmission had remained below the outbreak threshold for well over a year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration. Prevention policies should be a focus ahead of future pandemics. On that point, policy should emphasize an epidemiological task force with widespread testing and a contact-tracing system.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19-related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region. METHODS: In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023. RESULTS: The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward. CONCLUSIONS: Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In this study, we built upon our initial research published in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data for Europe. We assessed whether COVID-19 had shifted from the pandemic to endemic phase in the region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE: We first aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Europe at the time of the WHO declaration. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we provided the historical context for the course of the pandemic in Europe in terms of policy and disease burden at the country and region levels. METHODS: In addition to the updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-tailed t test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were moderate in magnitude (0.404 and 0.547, respectively; P<.001 for both). The shift parameters for the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration were small and insignificant, suggesting little change in the clustering effect of cases on future cases at the time. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became insignificant for the first time in April 2023. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Europe, the rate of transmission remained below the threshold of an outbreak for 4 months ahead of the WHO declaration. The region had previously been in a nearly continuous state of outbreak. The more recent trend suggested that COVID-19 was endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, several countries remained in a state of outbreak, and the conclusion that COVID-19 was no longer a pandemic in Europe at the time is unclear.

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) we first conducted in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to determine whether the MENA region meets the criteria for moving from a pandemic to endemic. In doing so, this study considers pandemic trends, dynamic and genomic surveillance methods, and region-specific historical context for the pandemic. These considerations continue through the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. METHODS: In addition to updates to traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed of COVID-19 spread was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data from September 4, 2020, to May 12, 2023. RESULTS: The speed of COVID-19 spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 continuous months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive, the weekly shift parameters suggested the coefficients had most recently turned negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of the speed of spread equal to 10 became entirely insignificant from October 2022 onward. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic had far-reaching effects on MENA, impacting health care systems, economies, and social well-being. Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in the MENA region, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for over 1 year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had transitioned to endemic by the time of the WHO declaration.

Older adult drug overdose: an application of latent class analysis to identify prevention opportunities.

BACKGROUND: Older adult overdose death rates have increased significantly in recent years. However, research for prevention of drug overdose death specific to older adults is limited. Our objective is to identify profiles based on missed intervention points (touchpoints) to inform prevention of future older adult unintentional overdose deaths. METHODS: We used latent class analysis methods to identify profiles of decedents aged 55 + years in the Illinois Statewide Unintentional Drug Overdose Reporting System. This system collects data on 92.6% of all unintentional overdose deaths in Illinois and includes data from death certificates, coroner/medical examiner, toxicology, and autopsy reports. Data include decedent demographics, circumstances leading up to and surrounding the fatal overdose and details regarding the overdose. Variables in the latent class analysis model included sex, race, alcohol test result, social isolation, recent emergency department (ED) visit, chronic pain, and pain treatment. RESULTS: We identified three distinct decent profiles. Class 1 (13% of decedents) included female decedents who were in pain treatment, had physical health problems, and had greater likelihood of a recent ED visit before their death. Class 2 (35% of decedents) decedents were most likely to be socially connected (live with others, employed, had social or family relationships) but less likely to have recent healthcare visits. Class 3 (52% of decedents) decedents had higher social isolation (lived alone, unemployed, unpartnered), were mostly male, had fewer known physical health conditions, and more alcohol positivity at time of death. White decedents are clustered in class 1 while Black decedents are predominant in classes 2 and 3. CONCLUSIONS: These profiles link to potential touchpoint opportunities for substance use disorder screening harm reduction and treatment. Class 1 members were most likely to be reachable in healthcare settings. However, most decedents were members of Classes 2 and 3 with less engagement in the healthcare system, suggesting a need for screening and intervention in different contexts. For Class 2, intervention touchpoints might include education and screening in work or social settings such as senior centers given the higher degree of social connectivity. For Class 3, the most isolated group, touchpoints may occur in the context of harm reduction outreach and social service delivery.

Investigating the 2016 surge in firearm violence in Illinois, USA, through community-based organisations: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Illinois experienced a historic firearm violence surge in 2016 with a decline to baseline rates in 2018. This study aimed to understand this 2016 surge through the direct accounts of violence prevention community-based organisations (CBOs) in Illinois. METHODS: We conducted semistructured interviews with 20 representatives from 13 CBOs from the south and west sides of greater Chicago metropolitan area. Interviews were audio recorded, coded and analysed thematically. RESULTS: We identified lack of government-derived infrastructure and systemic poverty as the central themes of Illinois's 2016 firearm violence surge. Participants highlighted the Illinois Budget Impasse halted funding for violence prevention efforts, leading to 2016's violence. This occurred in the context of a strained relationship with the criminal justice system, where disengagement from police and mistrust in the justice system led victims and families to seek justice outside of the judicial system. Participants emphasised that systemic poverty and the obliteration of community support structures led to overwhelming desperation, which, in turn, increased risky behaviours perceived as necessary for survival. Participants disproportionately identified that this impacted the young people in their communities. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of government-derived infrastructure and systemic poverty were the central themes of the 2016 firearm violence surge. The insights gained from the 2016 surge are applicable to understanding both current and future surges. CBOs focused on violence prevention offer insights into the context and conditions fuelling surges in the epidemic of violence.

Characteristics of child abuse fatalities: Insights from a statewide violent death reporting system.

BACKGROUND: Child maltreatment fatalities are a significant public health issue. Case level characteristics of abuse-related deaths can increase our understanding of maltreatment fatalities and inform region-specific prevention initiatives. OBJECTIVE: Explore child abuse fatalities in the Illinois Violent Death Reporting System (IVDRS) for commonalities and distinctive features. METHODS, PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: A mixed methods study was conducted using IVDRS data from 2015 to 2018. All fatalities with a homicide or undetermined manner of death among decedents 10 years old or younger were included. Both discrete and narrative data were analyzed separately for victim, suspect, circumstance, and household characteristics. RESULTS: Of the 106 deaths that met inclusion criteria, 74 % of homicide deaths (64/86) and 50 % of undetermined deaths (10/20) were due to abuse. Psychosocial characteristics most often identified in abusive deaths included family relationship problems, mental illness, and history of substance abuse. Other common characteristics included use of personal weapons or blunt instruments and death due to punishment. Including narrative data rather than discrete data alone identified 148 % more deaths with three characteristics commonly found in abusive deaths: history of abuse, shaken baby syndrome, and family history of violence. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the capability of multi-source state-level data to enrich our understanding of child abuse fatalities. Employing the narrative review method in other states using the National Violent Death Reporting System may increase the identification of abuse fatalities. Improved recognition and characterization of abuse fatalities has the potential to help address systemic factors involved and enhance targeted prevention efforts. WHAT IS KNOWN: Child abuse fatalities represent a significant and preventable public health issue in the United States. Case-specific characteristics are limited in national data sets, and their absence curtails prevention opportunities. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: State-wide reporting systems of violent deaths offer rich and multisource data regarding child abuse fatalities including detailed victim, suspect, circumstance, and household characteristics. This data can be used to enhance our knowledge of maltreatment fatalities and may inform region-specific public health and prevention initiatives.

Health care and harm reduction provider perspectives on treating older adults who use non-medical opioids: a qualitative study set in Chicago.

BACKGROUND: Opioid overdose death rates are increasing for adults aged 55 and older, with especially high rates in large urban areas. In parallel, admissions to treatment programs for older adults using illicit substances are increasing as well. Despite these trends, there is a lack of information about older adults who use non-medical opioids (NMO) and even less knowledge about their health and service encounters. Conducted in Chicago, Illinois, this qualitative study explores the perspectives of health care and harm reduction service providers who work with older adults using non-medical opioids. METHODS: The study used snowball sampling to locate participants with expertise in working with older adults who use non-medical opioids. In total, we conducted 26 semi-structured interviews from September 2021-August 2022. We explored questions regarding participants' perceptions of older adult opioid use patterns, comorbidities, and involvement in harm reduction outreach and opioid use disorder treatment. RESULTS: Many of the providers we interviewed consider older adults who use NMO as a distinct population that employ unique use behaviors with the intent to protect them from opioid overdose. However, these same unique behaviors may potentiate their risk for overdose in today's climate. Providers report initial encounters that are not care seeking for opioid use and primarily oriented around health conditions. Older adults who use non-medical opioids are seen as complex patients due to the need to diagnostically untangle symptoms of substance use from co-morbidities and conditions associated with aging. Treatment for this population is also viewed as complicated due to the interactions between aging, comorbidities, and substance use. Providers also noted that older adults who use NMO have use behaviors that make them less visible to outreach and treatment service providers, potentially putting them at increased risk for overdose and health conditions associated with opioid use. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this study are intended to inform future research on care provision for older adults who use non-medical opioids and may be especially applicable to large urban reas with histories of opioid use dating back to earlier drug epidemics of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

Changes in the Demographic Distribution of Chicago Gun-Homicide Decedents From 2015-2021: Violent Death Surveillance Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Homicide is one of the 5 leading causes of death in the United States for persons aged 1 to 44 years. In 2019, 75% of US homicides were by gun. Chicago has a gun-homicide rate 4 times the national average, and 90% of all homicides are by gun. The public health approach to violence prevention calls for a 4-step process, beginning with defining and monitoring the problem. Insight into the characteristics of gun-homicide decedents can help frame next steps, including identifying risk and protective factors, developing prevention and intervention strategies, and scaling effective responses. Although much is known about gun homicide because it is a long-standing, entrenched public health problem, it is useful to monitor trends to update ongoing prevention efforts. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to use public health surveillance data and methods to describe changes in the race/ethnicity, sex, and age of Chicago gun-homicide decedents from 2015-2021, in the context of year-to-year variation and an overall increase in the city's gun-homicide rate. METHODS: We calculated the distribution of gun-related homicide deaths by 6 race/ethnicity and sex groups (non-Hispanic Black female, non-Hispanic White female, Hispanic female, non-Hispanic Black male, non-Hispanic White male, and Hispanic male), age in years, and age by age group. We used counts, percentages, and rates per 100,000 persons to describe the distribution of deaths among these demographic groups. Comparisons of means and column proportions with tests of significance set at P≤.05 were used to describe changes in the distribution of gun-homicide decedents over time by race-ethnicity-sex and age groups. The comparison of mean age by race-ethnicity-sex group is done using 1-way ANOVA with significance set at P≤.05. RESULTS: The distribution of gun-homicide decedents in Chicago by race/ethnicity and sex groups had been relatively stable from 2015 to 2021 with 2 notable exceptions: a more than doubling of the proportion of gun-homicide decedents who were non-Hispanic Black female (3.6% in 2015 to 8.2% in 2021) and an increase of 3.27 years in the mean age of gun-homicide decedents. The increase in mean age coincided with a decrease in the proportion of non-Hispanic Black male gun-homicide decedents between the ages of 15-19 and 20-24 years and, conversely, an increase in the proportion of non-Hispanic Black male gun-homicide decedents aged 25-34 years. CONCLUSIONS: The annual gun-homicide rate in Chicago had been increasing since 2015 with year-to-year variation. Continued monitoring of trends in the demographic makeup of gun-homicide decedents is necessary to provide the most relevant and timely information to help shape violence prevention efforts. We detected several changes that suggest a need for increased outreach and engagement marketed toward non-Hispanic Black female and non-Hispanic Black male individuals between the ages of 25-34 years.

Prevalence of Alcohol in Unintentional Opioid Overdose Deaths, 2017-2020.

This cross-sectional study investigates the prevalence of alcohol in unintentional opioid overdose deaths in Illinois from 2017 through 2020.

The Association Between Adolescent Active Commuting to School and Parent Walking Behavior: The FLASHE Study.

PURPOSE: To examine the relationship between adolescent active commuting to school (ACS; walking or biking to/from school) and parent walking activity. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: US nationwide online surveys. SAMPLE: 1367 parent-adolescent (12-17 years) dyads among the Family Life, Activity, Sun, Health, and Eating (FLASHE) study participants (29.4% response rate). MEASURES: Online surveys asked about adolescent ACS and parent walking activity in the past week. Adolescents who reported ACS at least once in the past week were categorized as engaging in ACS. Parent walking frequency was categorized into 0-2, 3-5, and 6-7 days. ANALYSIS: Logistic regression analysis was conducted to compare the probability of adolescent ACS by parent walking activity, adjusted for sociodemographic factors and adolescent-, parent-, and neighborhood-level covariates. RESULTS: 28.5% of adolescents engaged in ACS at least once in the past week. Compared to 0-2 days/week of parent walking activity, ORs for adolescent ACS for 3-5 and 6-7 days/week of parent walking activity were 1.98 (95% CI=1.38-2.87) and 1.81 (1.23-2.68), respectively. In stratified analyses by parent and adolescent sex, father-son dyads presented the strongest association between adolescent ACS and parent walking 3-5 and 6-7 days/week (ORs=4.17 [1.46-11.91] and 3.95 [1.45-10.77], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Adolescents with parents who engaged in walking activity ≥3 days/week were more likely to actively commute to school. Parent walking activity may have positive intergenerational effects on adolescent ACS and physical activity.

Disparities by Sex and Race and Ethnicity in Death Rates Due to Opioid Overdose Among Adults 55 Years or Older, 1999 to 2019.

Importance: Rates of opioid overdose deaths are increasing for older adults. Less is known about these deaths compared with those of younger adults. Objective: To analyze rate variation among opioid overdose deaths in older adults by sex and by race and ethnicity over time. Design, Setting, and Participants: This 21-year longitudinal cross-sectional study of adults who died due to opioid overdose at 55 years or older stratified by sex and by race and ethnicity used data from the Multiple Cause of Death database from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research. The data include all opioid overdose deaths among this age group that occurred between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2019 (N = 79 893). Exposures: Sex and racial and ethnic groups. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates of opioid overdose deaths per 100 000 population by sex and by race and ethnicity for persons 55 years or older. Results: During the period 1999 to 2019, 79 893 US residents 55 years or older died due to an opioid overdose. Among these individuals, 79.97% were aged 55 to 64 years, and 58.98% were men. Annual numbers of deaths increased over time from 518 in 1999 to 10 292 in 2019. Annual rates of opioid overdose deaths per 100 000 persons 55 years or older increased over time and ranged from 0.90 in 1999 to 10.70 in 2019. Substantial variation by sex and by race and ethnicity was found. In 2013, rates among non-Hispanic Black men began to diverge from those of other demographic subgroups. By 2019, the opioid overdose fatality rate among non-Hispanic Black men 55 years or older was 40.03 per 100 000 population, 4 times greater than the overall opioid overdose fatality rate of 10.70 per 100 000 for persons of the same age. Conclusions and Relevance: In this longitudinal cross-sectional study of US adults who died due to opioid overdose, the burden of opioid overdose deaths among older adults since 2013 was most concentrated among non-Hispanic Black men. Deaths among non-Hispanic Black men were disproportionality represented in the overall increase in the rate of opioid overdose deaths among older adults. Further research is needed to inform policy and practice.

Association between youth homicides and state spending: a Chicago cross-sectional case study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify contributing factors associated with rapid spikes and declines in Chicago youth homicide from 2009 to 2018. SETTING: City of Chicago, Illinois, US 2009-2018. PARTICIPANTS: Homicide count data come from the National Violent Death Reporting System. The study included information on 2271 homicide decedents between the ages of 15 and 24 who died between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2018. Of these decedents, 92.9% were male; 79.1% were non-Hispanic black; and 94.9% died from a firearm injury. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: (A) Temporal shifts in monthly homicide rates and (B) temporal associations between social, environmental and economic conditions/events and fluctuations in homicides. RESULTS: We found statistically significant shifts in homicide rates over time: a 77% rise in monthly youth homicide rates per 100 000 persons from 2015 to 2016 (4.3 vs 7.5); dropping back to pre-2015 rates (4.3) by mid-2017. There was a temporal co-occurrence between the rapid rise in youth homicides and absence of a state budget. Conversely, we found a temporal co-occurrence of the sharp decline in homicides with the reinstatement of a state budget. Adjusting for seasonality, we found death rates were greater in the months without a budget compared with months with a budget (1.48, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.70). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that state funding may be a potential protective factor against youth homicide.