The impact of digital technology in care homes on unplanned secondary care usage and associated costs.

BACKGROUND: A substantial number of Emergency Department (ED) attendances by care home residents are potentially avoidable. Health Call Digital Care Homes is an app-based technology that aims to streamline residents' care by recording their observations such as vital parameters electronically. Observations are triaged by remote clinical staff. This study assessed the effectiveness of the Health Call technology to reduce unplanned secondary care usage and associated costs. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of health outcomes and economic impact based on an intervention. The study involved 118 care homes across the North East of UK from 2018 to 2021. Routinely collected NHS secondary care data from County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust was linked with data from the Health Call app. Three outcomes were modelled monthly using Generalised Linear Mixed Models: counts of emergency attendances, emergency admissions and length of stay of emergency admissions. A similar approach was taken for costs. The impact of Health Call was tested on each outcome using the models. FINDINGS: Data from 8,702 residents were used in the analysis. Results show Health Call reduces the number of emergency attendances by 11% [6-15%], emergency admissions by 25% [20-39%] and length of stay by 11% [3-18%] (with an additional month-by-month decrease of 28% [24-34%]). The cost analysis found a cost reduction of £57 per resident in 2018, increasing to £113 in 2021. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of a digital technology, such as Health Call, could significantly reduce contacts with and costs resulting from unplanned secondary care usage by care home residents.

Navigating data governance associated with real-world data for public benefit: an overview in the UK and future considerations.

Real-world data encompass data primarily captured for the provision or operation of services, for example, electronic health records for direct care purposes, but which may have secondary uses for informing research or commissioning. Public benefit is potentially forfeited by the underutilisation of real-world data for secondary uses, in part due to risk aversion when faced with the prospect of navigating necessary and important data governance processes. Such processes can be perceived as complex, daunting, time-consuming and exposing organisations to risk. By providing an overview description and discussion around the role of six key legal and information governance frameworks and their role regarding responsible data access, linkage and sharing, our intention is to make data governance a less daunting prospect and reduce the perception that it is a barrier to secondary uses, thus enabling public benefit.

Factors associated with longer wait times, admission and reattendances in older patients attending emergency departments: an analysis of linked healthcare data.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Care for older patients in the ED is an increasingly important issue with the ageing society. To better assess the quality of care in this patient group, we assessed predictors for three outcomes related to ED care: being seen and discharged within 4 hours of ED arrival; being admitted from ED to hospital and reattending the ED within 30 days. We also used these outcomes to identify better-performing EDs. METHODS: The CUREd Research Database was used for a retrospective observational study of all 1 039 251 attendances by 368 754 patients aged 75+ years in 18 type 1 EDs in the Yorkshire and the Humber region of England between April 2012 and March 2017. We estimated multilevel logit models, accounting for patients' characteristics and contact with emergency services prior to ED arrival, time variables and the ED itself. RESULTS: Patients in the oldest category (95+ years vs 75-80 years) were more likely to have a long ED wait (OR=1.13 (95% CI=1.10 to 1.15)), hospital admission (OR=1.26 (95% CI=1.23 to 1.29)) and ED reattendance (OR=1.09 (95% CI=1.06 to 1.12)). Those who had previously attended (3+ vs 0 previous attendances) were more likely to have long wait (OR=1.07 (95% CI=1.06 to 1.08)), hospital admission (OR=1.10 (95% CI=1.09 to 1.12)) and ED attendance (OR=3.13 (95% CI=3.09 to 3.17)). Those who attended out of hours (vs not out of hours) were more likely to have a long ED wait (OR=1.33 (95% CI=1.32 to 1.34)), be admitted to hospital (OR=1.19 (95% CI=1.18 to 1.21)) and have ED reattendance (OR=1.07 (95% CI=1.05 to 1.08)). Those living in less deprived decile (vs most deprived decile) were less likely to have any of these three outcomes: OR=0.93 (95% CI=0.92 to 0.95), 0.92 (95% CI=0.90 to 0.94), 0.86 (95% CI=0.84 to 0.88). These characteristics were not strongly associated with long waits for those who arrived by ambulance. Emergency call handler designation was the strongest predictor of long ED waits and hospital admission: compared with those who did not arrive by ambulance; ORs for these outcomes were 1.18 (95% CI=1.16 to 1.20) and 1.85 (95% CI=1.81 to 1.89) for those designated less urgent; 1.37 (95% CI=1.33 to 1.40) and 2.13 (95% CI=2.07 to 2.18) for urgent attendees; 1.26 (95% CI=1.23 to 1.28) and 2.40 (95% CI=2.36 to 2.45) for emergency attendees; and 1.37 (95% CI=1.28 to 1.45) and 2.42 (95% CI=2.26 to 2.59) for those with life-threatening conditions. We identified two EDs whose patients were less likely to have a long ED, hospital admission or ED reattendance than other EDs in the region. CONCLUSIONS: Age, previous attendance and attending out of hours were all associated with an increased likelihood of exceeding 4 hours in the ED, hospital admission and reattendance among patients over 75 years. These differences were less pronounced among those arriving by ambulance. Emergency call handler designation could be used to identify those at the highest risk of long ED waits, hospital admission and ED reattendance.

Examining the effect of interventions in emergency care for older people using a system dynamics decision support tool.

BACKGROUND: Rising demand for Emergency and Urgent Care is a major international issue and outcomes for older people remain sub-optimal. Embarking upon large-scale service development is costly in terms of time, energy and resources with no guarantee of improved outcomes; computer simulation modelling offers an alternative, low risk and lower cost approach to explore possible interventions. METHOD: A system dynamics computer simulation model was developed as a decision support tool for service planners. The model represents patient flow through the emergency care process from the point of calling for help through ED attendance, possible admission, and discharge or death. The model was validated against five different evidence-based interventions (geriatric emergency medicine, front door frailty, hospital at home, proactive care and acute frailty units) on patient outcomes such as hospital-related mortality, readmission and length of stay. RESULTS: The model output estimations are consistent with empirical evidence. Each intervention has different levels of effect on patient outcomes. Most of the interventions show potential reductions in hospital admissions, readmissions and hospital-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: System dynamics modelling can be used to support decisions on which emergency care interventions to implement to improve outcomes for older people.

Supporting the ambulance service to safely convey fewer patients to hospital by developing a risk prediction tool: Risk of Adverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure (RADOSS)-protocol for the mixed-methods observational RADOSS project.

INTRODUCTION: Ambulances services are asked to further reduce avoidable conveyances to emergency departments (EDs). Risk of Adverse Outcomes after a Suspected Seizure seeks to support this by: (1) clarifying the risks of conveyance and non-conveyance, and (2) developing a risk prediction tool for clinicians to use 'on scene' to estimate the benefits an individual would receive if conveyed to ED and risks if not. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Mixed-methods, multi-work package (WP) project. For WP1 and WP2 we shall use an existing linked data set that tracks urgent and emergency care (UEC) use of persons served by one English regional ambulance service. Risk tools are specific to clinical scenarios. We shall use suspected seizures in adults as an exemplar.WP1: Form a cohort of patients cared for a seizure by the service during 2019/2020. It, and nested Knowledge Exchange workshops with clinicians and service users, will allow us to: determine the proportions following conveyance and non-conveyance that die and/or recontact UEC system within 3 (/30) days; quantify the proportion of conveyed incidents resulting in 'avoidable ED attendances' (AA); optimise risk tool development; and develop statistical models that, using information available 'on scene', predict the risk of death/recontact with the UEC system within 3 (/30) days and the likelihood of an attendance at ED resulting in an AA.WP2: Form a cohort of patients cared for a seizure during 2021/2022 to 'temporally' validate the WP1 predictive models.WP3: Complete the 'next steps' workshops with stakeholders. Using nominal group techniques, finalise plans to develop the risk tool for clinical use and its evaluation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: WP1a and WP2 will be conducted under database ethical approval (IRAS 307353) and Confidentiality Advisory Group (22/CAG/0019) approval. WP1b and WP3 have approval from the University of Liverpool Central Research Ethics Committee (11450). We shall engage in proactive dissemination and knowledge mobilisation to share findings with stakeholders and maximise evidence usage.

Non-urgent emergency department attendances in children: a retrospective observational analysis.

INTRODUCTION: A significant proportion of ED attendances in children may be non-urgent attendances (NUAs), which could be better managed elsewhere. This study aimed to quantify NUAs and urgent attendances (UAs) in children to ED and determine which children present in this way and when. METHODS: Dataset extracted from the CUREd research database containing linked data on the provision of care in Yorkshire and Humber. Analysis focused on children's ED attendances (April 2014-March 2017). Summary statistics and odds ratios (OR) comparing NUAs and UAs were examined by: age, mode and time of arrival and deprivation alongside comparing summary statistics for waiting, treatment and total department times. RESULTS: NUAs were more likely in younger children: OR for NUA in children aged 1-4 years, 0.82 (95% CI: 0.80 to 0.83), age 15 years, 0.39 (95% CI: 0.38 to 0.40), when compared with those under 1 year. NUAs were more likely to arrive out of hours (OOHs) compared with in hours: OR 1.19 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.20), and OOHs arrivals were less common in older children compared with those under 1 year: age 1-4 years, 0.87 (95% CI: 0.84 to 0.89) age 15 years, 0.66 (95% CI: 0.63 to 0.69). NUAs also spent less total time in the ED, with a median (IQR) of 98 min (60-147) compared with 127 min (80-185) for UAs. CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of ED attendances in children are NUAs. Our data suggest there are particular groups of children for whom targeted interventions would be most beneficial. Children under 5 years would be such a group, particularly in providing accessible, timely care outside of usual community care opening hours.

Heterogeneity of reasons for attendance in frequent attenders of emergency departments and its relationship to future attendance.

BACKGROUND: EDs globally are under increasing pressure through rising demand. Frequent attenders are known to have complex health needs and use a disproportionate amount of resources. We hypothesised that heterogeneity of patients' reason for attendance would be associated with multimorbidity and increasing age, and predict future attendance. METHOD: We analysed an anonymised dataset of all ED visits over the course of 2014 in Yorkshire, UK. We identified 15 986 patients who had five or more ED encounters at any ED in the calendar year. Presenting complaint was categorised into one of 14 categories based on the Emergency Care Data Set (ECDS). We calculated measures of heterogeneity (count of ECDs categories and entropy of categories) and examined their relationship to total number of ED visits and to patient characteristics. We examined the predictive value of these and other features on future attendance. RESULTS: Most frequent attenders had more than one presenting complaint type. Heterogeneity increased with number of attendances, but heterogeneity adjusted for number of attendances did not vary substantially with age or sex. Heterogeneity was associated with the presence of one or more contacts for a mental health problem. For a given number of attendances, prior mental health contact but not heterogeneity was associated with further attendance. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneity of presenting complaint can be quantified and analysed for ED use: it is increased where there is a history of mental disorder but not with age. This suggests it reflects more than the number of medical conditions.

Frequent attendance at the emergency department shows typical features of complex systems: analysis of multicentre linked data.

OBJECTIVE: Frequent attendance at the ED is a worldwide problem. We hypothesised that frequent attendance could be understood as a feature of a complex system comprising patients, healthcare and society. Complex systems have characteristic statistical properties, with stable patterns at the level of the system emerging from unstable patterns at the level of individuals who make up the system. METHODS: Analysis of a linked dataset of routinely collected health records from all 13 hospital trusts providing ED care in the Yorkshire and Humber region of the UK (population 5.5 million). We analysed the distribution of attendances per person in each of 3 years and measured the transition of individual patients between frequent, infrequent and non-attendance. We fitted data to power law distributions typically seen in complex systems using maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: The data included 3.6 million attendances at EDs in 13 hospital trusts. 29/39 (74.3%) analyses showed a statistical fit to a power law; 2 (5.1%) fitted an alternative distribution. All trusts' data fitted a power law in at least 1 year. Differences over time and between hospital trusts were small and partly explained by demographics. In contrast, individual patients' frequent attendance was unstable between years. CONCLUSIONS: ED attendance patterns are stable at the level of the system, but unstable at the level of individual frequent attenders. Attendances follow a power law distribution typical of complex systems. Interventions to address ED frequent attendance need to consider the whole system and not just the individual frequent attenders.

Improving outcomes for older people in the emergency department: a review of reviews.

BACKGROUND: There has been a recognised trend of increasing use of emergency and urgent care and emergency departments (EDs) by older people, which is marked by a substantial evidence base reporting interventions for this population and guidance from key organisations. Despite this, outcomes for this population remain suboptimal. A plethora of reviews in this area provides challenges for clinicians and commissioners in determining which interventions and models of care best meet people's needs. The aim of this review was to identify effective ED interventions which have been reported for older people, and to provide a clear summary of the myriad reviews and numerous intervention types in this area. METHODS: A review of reviews, reporting interventions for older people, either initiated or wholly delivered within the ED. RESULTS: A total of 15 review articles describing 83 primary studies met our content and reporting standards criteria. The majority (n=13) were systematic reviews (four using meta-analysis.) Across the reviews, 26 different outcomes were reported with inconsistency. Follow-up duration varied within and across the reviews. Based on how authors had reported results, evidence clusters were developed: (1) staff-focused reviews, (2) discharge intervention reviews, (3) population-focused reviews and (4) intervention component reviews. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence base describing interventions is weak due to inconsistent reporting, differing emphasis placed on the key characteristics of primary studies (staff, location and outcome) by review authors and varying quality of reviews. No individual interventions have been found to be more promising, but interventions initiated in the ED and continued into other settings have tended to result in more favourable patient and health service outcomes. Despite many interventions reported within the reviews being holistic and patient focused, outcomes measured were largely service focused. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: PROSPERO CRD42018111461.

Risk of significant traumatic brain injury in adults with minor head injury taking direct oral anticoagulants: a cohort study and updated meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients taking direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) commonly undergo CT head imaging after minor head injury, regardless of symptoms or signs. However, the risk of intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) in such patients is unclear, and further research has been recommended by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence head injury guideline group. METHODS: An observational cohort study was performed in the UK South Yorkshire major trauma centre between 26 June and 3 September 2018. Adult patients taking DOACs with minor head injury were prospectively identified, with case ascertainment supplemented by screening of radiology and ED information technology systems. Clinical and outcome data were subsequently collated from patient records. The primary endpoint was adverse outcome within 30 days, comprising: neurosurgery, ICH or death due to head injury. A previously published meta-analysis was updated with the current results and the findings of other recent studies. RESULTS: 148 patients with minor head injury were included (GCS 15, n=107, 72%; GCS 14, n=41, 28%). Patients were elderly (median 82 years) and most frequently injured from ground level falls (n=142, 96%). Overall risk of adverse outcome was 3.4% (5/148, 95% CI 1.4% to 8.0%). Five patients had ICH, of whom one died within 30 days. One patient was treated with prothrombin complex concentrate but no patient received critical care management or underwent neurosurgical intervention. Updated random effects meta-analysis, including the current results and two further recent studies, showed a weighted overall risk of adverse outcome of 3.2% (n=29/787, 95% CI 2.0% to 4.4%). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of adverse outcome following mild head injury in patients taking DOACs appears low. These findings would support shared patient-clinician decision making, rather than routine imaging, following minor head injury while taking DOACs.

A data linkage study of suspected seizures in the urgent and emergency care system in the UK.

INTRODUCTION: The urgent and emergency care (UEC) system is struggling with increased demand, some of which is clinically unnecessary. Patients suffering suspected seizures commonly present to EDs, but most seizures are self-limiting and have low risk of short-term adverse outcomes. We aimed to investigate the flow of suspected seizure patients through the UEC system using data linkage to facilitate the development of new models of care. METHODS: We used a two-stage process of deterministic linking to perform a cross-sectional analysis of data from adults in a large region in England (population 5.4 million) during 2014. The core dataset comprised a total of 739 436 ambulance emergency incidents, 1 033 778 ED attendances and 362 358 admissions. RESULTS: A high proportion of cases were successfully linked (86.9% ED-inpatient, 77.7% ED-ambulance). Suspected seizures represented 2.8% of all ambulance service incidents. 61.7% of these incidents led to dispatch of a rapid-response ambulance (8 min) and 72.1% were conveyed to hospital. 37 patients died before being conveyed to hospital and 24 died in the ED (total 61; 0.3%). The inpatient death rate was 0.4%. Suspected seizures represented 0.71% of ED attendances, 89.8% of these arrived by emergency ambulance, 45.4% were admitted and 44.5% of these admissions lasted under 48 hours. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms previously published data from smaller unlinked datasets, validating the linkage method, and provides new data for suspected seizures. There are significant barriers to realising the full potential of data linkage. Collaborative action is needed to create facilitative governance frameworks and improve data quality and analytical capacity.

What does the ideal urgent and emergency care system look like? A qualitative study of service user perspectives.

BACKGROUND: Policies aimed at diverting care from EDs to alternative services have not been successful in reducing ED attendances and have contributed to confusion for service users when making care-seeking decisions. It is important that service users are at the heart of decision making to ensure new services meet the needs of those who will be accessing them. In this study, service users were encouraged to think freely about the desirable qualities of an ideal urgent and emergency care (UEC) system. METHODS: From September to February 2019, an open inductive methodology was used to conduct focus groups with service users who had used UK UEC services within the previous year. Service users that had contact with NHS111, ambulance service, General Practice out-of-hours, minor injuries unit, walk-in centre or ED were purposively sampled and stratified into the following groups: (1) 18-45 years; (2)≥75 years; (3) adults with young children; (4) adults with long-term conditions. Focus groups were structured around experiences of accessing UEC services and perspectives of an 'ideal' UEC system. RESULTS: 30 service users took part in the study, across four focus groups. The ideal UEC system centred around three themes: a simplified UEC system (easier to understand and a single-point of access); more 'joined-up' UEC services and better communication between health staff and patients. CONCLUSION: Desirable qualities of an ideal UEC system from a service user perspective related to simplifying access for example, through a single point of access system where health professionals decide the appropriate service required and improving continuity of care through better integration of UEC services. Service users value reassurance and communication from health professionals about care pathways and care choices, and this helps service users feel more in control of their healthcare journey.

The impact of closing emergency departments on mortality in emergencies: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: In England the demand for emergency care is increasing, while there is also a staffing shortage. This has implications for quality of care and patient safety. One solution may be to concentrate resources on fewer sites by closing or downgrading emergency departments (EDs). Our aim was to quantify the impact of such reorganisation on population mortality. METHODS: We undertook a controlled interrupted time series analysis to detect the impact of closing or downgrading five EDs, which occurred due to concerns regarding sustainability. We obtained mortality data from 2007 to 2014 using national databases. To establish ED resident catchment populations, estimated journey times by road were supplied by the Department for Transport. Other major changes in the emergency and urgent care system were determined by analysis of annual NHS Trust reports in each geographical area studied. Our main outcome measures were mortality and case fatality for a set of 16 serious emergency conditions. RESULTS: For residents in the areas affected by closure, journey time to the nearest ED increased (median change 9 min, range 0-25 min). We found no statistically reliable evidence of a change in overall mortality following reorganisation of ED care in any of the five areas or overall (+2.5% more deaths per month on average; 95% CI -5.2% to +10.2%; p=0.52). There was some evidence to suggest that, on average across the five areas, there was a small increase in case fatality, an indicator of the 'risk of death' (+2.3%, 95% CI +0.9% to+3.6%; p<0.001), but this may have arisen due to changes in hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that reorganisation of emergency care was associated with a change in population mortality in the five areas studied. Further research should establish the economic consequences and impact on patient experience and neighbouring hospitals.

Exploring the characteristics, acuity and management of adult ED patients at night-time.

OBJECTIVES: ED care is required for acutely unwell and injured patients 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The aim of this study was to compare characteristics and activity of type 1 ED attendances according to whether their time of arrival was during the day (08:00-18:00) or at night (18:00-08:00). METHODS: Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data from NHS Digital for all A&E and admitted patient care activity provided by all acute (not mental health or primary care) NHS hospital trusts in Yorkshire and Humber (1 April 2011 to 31 March 2014) for adult patients were analysed. Adjusted linear and logistic regression was used to model the data. RESULTS: Adjusted regression analysis results show that patients who attended ED at night waited an extra 18.76 (95% CI 18.62 to 18.89) min to be seen by a clinician. They also spent an additional 13.64 (95% CI 13.47 to 13.81) min total in ED. Patients who attended at night were OR 2.20 (95% CI 2.17 to 2.23) times more likely to leave without being seen. They were also OR 1.26 (95% CI 1.25 to 1.27) times more likely to re-attend the ED and were OR 1.20 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.21) times more likely to present with non-urgent conditions. Overnight patients were more likely to be admitted to hospital, OR 1.09 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.10) times, however, those admitted were more likely to have a short-stay admission. CONCLUSION: There is an 'overnight effect' of patients attending EDs. Patients wait longer, leave without being seen, attend with non-urgent problems and are more likely to be admitted for a short stay. Further work is required to identify the potential underlying causes of these differences.

Multicentre, prospective observational study of the correlation between the Glasgow Admission Prediction Score and adverse outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether the Glasgow Admission Prediction Score (GAPS) is correlated with hospital length of stay, 6-month hospital readmission and 6-month all-cause mortality. This study represents a 6-month follow-up of patients who were included in an external validation of the GAPS' ability to predict admission at the point of triage. SETTING: Sampling was conducted between February and May 2016 at two separate emergency departments (EDs) in Sheffield and Glasgow. PARTICIPANTS: Data were collected prospectively at triage for consecutive adult patients who presented to the ED within sampling times. Any patients who avoided formal triage were excluded from the study. In total, 1420 patients were recruited. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: GAPS was calculated following triage and did not influence patient management. Length of hospital stay, hospital readmission and mortality against GAPS were modelled using survival analysis at 6 months. RESULTS: Of the 1420 patients recruited, 39.6% of these patients were initially admitted to hospital. At 6 months, 30.6% of patients had been readmitted and 5.6% of patients had died. For those admitted at first presentation, the chance of being discharged fell by 4.3% (95% CI 3.2% to 5.3%) per GAPS point increase. Cox regression indicated a 9.2% (95% CI 7.3% to 11.1%) increase in the chance of 6-month hospital readmission per point increase in GAPS. An association between GAPS and 6-month mortality was demonstrated, with a hazard increase of 9.0% (95% CI 6.9% to 11.2%) for every point increase in GAPS. CONCLUSION: A higher GAPS is associated with increased hospital length of stay, 6-month hospital readmission and 6-month all-cause mortality. While GAPS's primary application may be to predict admission and support clinical decision making, GAPS may provide valuable insight into inpatient resource allocation and bed planning.

Urgent care axis for the older adult: where is best to target interventions?

BACKGROUND: We explored the urgent care axis across EDs in Yorkshire and Humber (Y&H) for patients aged ≥75 years to identify where interventions could be targeted to prevent ED attendances and inpatient admissions. METHODS: Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data for attendances across 18 EDs in Y&H from April 2011 to March 2014 were retrospectively analysed. HES A&E and Admitted Patient Care patient records data were linked to describe the entire patient pathway. The population studied was adult patients attending type 1 EDs, comparing those ≥75 years with those under 75. Data analysed included arrival mode, presentation time, time in ED, outcome (admitted/discharged), admission length of stay, International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) and cause codes related to admission. Short-stay admissions and admissions with potentially avoidable conditions (identified by ICD-10 codes and cause codes) were identified. Comparative analysis was undertaken between sites. RESULTS: There were 3 736 541 ED attendances, of which 625 772 (16.7%) were ≥75 years. Older patients were significantly more likely to attend via ambulance than the younger cohort (OR 7.7, 95% CI 7.6 to 7.7), and had significantly longer median stays within ED (195 vs 136 min, p<0.001) and increased likelihood of admission (OR 4.5, 95% CI 4.5 to 4.6). Short-stay admissions accounted for 28.3% of older adult admissions. 37.3% of older adult admissions were with conditions that were potentially avoidable, accounting for 42.3% of short-stay admissions. There was regional variation in the proportions of older adults admitted (between 34.3% and 40.9%). DISCUSSION: Large numbers of older adults present to EDs mainly by ambulance. Significant proportions are admitted for short periods with conditions that might potentially be managed outside of hospital. Variation across the region warrants further study.

Understanding the management of patients with head injury taking warfarin: who should we scan and when? Lessons from the AHEAD study.

Anticoagulated patients represent an important and increasing proportion of the patients with head trauma attending the ED, but there is no international consensus for their appropriate investigation and management. International guidelines vary and are largely based on a small number of studies, which provide poor-quality evidence for the management of patients taking warfarin. This article provides an overview of the clinical research evidence for CT scanning head-injured patients taking warfarin and a discussion of interpretation of risk and acceptable risk. We aim to provide shop floor clinicians with an understanding of the limitations of the evidence in this field and the limitations of applying 'one-size-fits-all' guidelines to individual patients. There is good evidence for a more selective scanning approach to patients with head injuries taking warfarin than is currently recommended by most guidelines. Specifically, patients without any head injury-related symptoms and GCS score 15 have a reduced risk of adverse outcome and may not need to be scanned. We argue that there is evidence to support an individualised approach to decision to CT scan in mild head injuries on warfarin and that clinicians should feel able to discuss risks with patients and sometimes decide not to scan.