Convergence of Age Differences in Risk Preference, Impulsivity, and Self-Control: A Multiverse Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Numerous theories exist regarding age differences in risk preference and related constructs, yet many of them offer conflicting predictions and fail to consider convergence between measurement modalities or constructs. To pave the way for conceptual clarification and theoretical refinement, in this preregistered study we aimed to comprehensively examine age effects on risk preference, impulsivity, and self-control using different measurement modalities, and to assess their convergence. METHODS: We collected a large battery of self-report, informant report, behavioral, hormone, and neuroimaging measures from a cross-sectional sample of 148 (55% female) healthy human participants between 16 and 81 years (mean age = 46 years, standard deviation [SD] = 19). We used an extended sample of 182 participants (54% female, mean age = 46 years, SD = 19) for robustness checks concerning the results from self-reports, informant reports, and behavioral measures. For our main analysis, we performed specification curve analyses to visualize and estimate the convergence between the different modalities and constructs. RESULTS: Our multiverse analysis approach revealed convergent results for risk preference, impulsivity, and self-control from self- and informant reports, suggesting a negative effect of age. For behavioral, hormonal, and neuroimaging outcomes, age effects were mostly absent. DISCUSSION: Our findings call for conceptual clarification and improved operationalization to capture the putative mechanisms underlying age-related differences in risk preference and related constructs.

Novel embeddings improve the prediction of risk perception.

We assess whether the classic psychometric paradigm of risk perception can be improved or supplanted by novel approaches relying on language embeddings. To this end, we introduce the Basel Risk Norms, a large data set covering 1004 distinct sources of risk (e.g., vaccination, nuclear energy, artificial intelligence) and compare the psychometric paradigm against novel text and free-association embeddings in predicting risk perception. We find that an ensemble model combining text and free association rivals the predictive accuracy of the psychometric paradigm, captures additional affect and frequency-related dimensions of risk perception not accounted for by the classic approach, and has greater range of applicability to real-world text data, such as news headlines. Overall, our results establish the ensemble of text and free-association embeddings as a promising new tool for researchers and policymakers to track real-world risk perception. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjds/s13688-024-00478-x.

Lifespan trajectories of risk preference, impulsivity, and self-control: A dataset containing self-report, informant-report, behavioral, hormone and functional neuroimaging measures from a cross-sectional human sample.

This paper describes data collected from a cross-sectional convenience sample of 200 healthy human volunteers between 16 and 81 years of age. We assembled an extensive battery of measures of risk preference, impulsivity, and self-control, as well as a range of demographic and cognitive measures, Crucially, we adopted different measure categories, including self-reports, informant reports, behavioral measures, and biological measures (hormones, brain function) to capture individual differences, and adopted a within-participant design. Data collection took place over multiple sessions. First, participants completed a laboratory session at the university during which we collected computer-assisted self-report measures (i.e., standardized questionnaires) as well as behavioral measures using computerized tasks. Second, participants independently completed a home session that included the completion of self-report measures, and the collection of saliva samples. In parallel, we acquired informant reports from up to three individuals nominated by the study participants. Third, participants completed a final session at the local hospital during which we collected structural and functional neuroimaging data, as well as further self-report measures. The data was collected to address questions concerning the developmental trajectories of risk preference and related constructs while assessing the impact of the assessment method; however, we invite fellow researchers to benefit from and further explore the data for research on decision-making under risk and uncertainty in general, and to apply novel analytical approaches (e.g., machine-learning applications to the neuroimaging data). Combining a large set of measures with a within-participant design affords a wealth of opportunities for further insights and a more robust evidence base supporting current theorizing on (age-related) differences in risk preference, impulsivity, and self-control.

Cohort profile: Genetic data in the German Socio-Economic Panel Innovation Sample (SOEP-G).

The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) serves a global research community by providing representative annual longitudinal data of respondents living in private households in Germany. The dataset offers a valuable life course panorama, encompassing living conditions, socioeconomic status, familial connections, personality traits, values, preferences, health, and well-being. To amplify research opportunities further, we have extended the SOEP Innovation Sample (SOEP-IS) by collecting genetic data from 2,598 participants, yielding the first genotyped dataset for Germany based on a representative population sample (SOEP-G). The sample includes 107 full-sibling pairs, 501 parent-offspring pairs, and 152 triads, which overlap with the parent-offspring pairs. Leveraging the results from well-powered genome-wide association studies, we created a repository comprising 66 polygenic indices (PGIs) in the SOEP-G sample. We show that the PGIs for height, BMI, and educational attainment capture 22∼24%, 12∼13%, and 9% of the variance in the respective phenotypes. Using the PGIs for height and BMI, we demonstrate that the considerable increase in average height and the decrease in average BMI in more recent birth cohorts cannot be attributed to genetic shifts within the German population or to age effects alone. These findings suggest an important role of improved environmental conditions in driving these changes. Furthermore, we show that higher values in the PGIs for educational attainment and the highest math class are associated with better self-rated health, illustrating complex relationships between genetics, cognition, behavior, socio-economic status, and health. In summary, the SOEP-G data and the PGI repository we created provide a valuable resource for studying individual differences, inequalities, life-course development, health, and interactions between genetic predispositions and the environment.

Aging and Economic Preferences: Cumulative Meta-Analyses of Age Differences in Risk, Time, Social, and Effort Preferences.

OBJECTIVES: Several theories predict changes in individuals' economic preferences across the life span. To test these theories and provide a historical overview of this literature, we conducted meta-analyses on age differences in risk, time, social, and effort preferences as assessed by behavioral measures. METHODS: We conducted separate meta-analyses and cumulative meta-analyses on the association between age and risk, time, social, and effort preferences. We also conducted analyses of historical trends in sample sizes and citation patterns for each economic preference. RESULTS: The meta-analyses identified overall no significant effects of age for risk (r = -0.02, 95% CI [-0.06, 0.02], n = 39,832) and effort preferences (r = 0.24, 95% CI [-0.05, 0.52], n = 571), but significant effects of age for time (r = -0.04, 95% CI [-0.07, -0.01], n = 115,496) and social preferences (r = 0.11, 95% CI [0.01, 0.21], n = 2,997), suggesting increased patience and altruism with age, respectively. Equivalence tests, which compare these effects to practically important ones (i.e., r = |0.1|), however, suggest that all effects are of trivial significance. The analyses of temporal trends suggest that the magnitude of effects and sample sizes have not changed significantly over time, nor do they dramatically affect the extent that articles are cited. DISCUSSION: Overall, our results contrast with theories of aging that propose general age effects for risk and effort preferences, yet provide some but tenuous support for those suggesting age-related changes in time and social preferences. We discuss implications for theory development as well as future empirical work on economic preferences.

Age differences in the neural basis of decision-making under uncertainty.

Humans globally are reaping the benefits of longer lives. Yet, longer life spans also require engaging with consequential but often uncertain decisions well into old age. Previous research has yielded mixed findings with regards to life span differences in how individuals make decisions under uncertainty. One factor contributing to the heterogeneity of findings is the diversity of paradigms that cover different aspects of uncertainty and tap into different cognitive and affective mechanisms. In this study, 175 participants (53.14% females, mean age = 44.9 years, SD = 19.0, age range = 16 to 81) completed functional neuroimaging versions of two prominent paradigms in this area, the Balloon Analogue Risk Task and the Delay Discounting Task. Guided by neurobiological accounts of age-related changes in decision-making under uncertainty, we examined age effects on neural activation differences in decision-relevant brain structures, and compared these across multiple contrasts for the two paradigms using specification curve analysis. In line with theoretical predictions, we find age differences in nucleus accumbens, anterior insula, and medial prefrontal cortex, but the results vary across paradigm and contrasts. Our results are in line with existing theories of age differences in decision making and their neural substrates, yet also suggest the need for a broader research agenda that considers how both individual and task characteristics determine the way humans deal with uncertainty.

Life-Course Trajectories of Risk-Taking Propensity: A Coordinated Analysis of Longitudinal Studies.

OBJECTIVES: How does risk preference change across the life span? We address this question by conducting a coordinated analysis to obtain the first meta-analytic estimates of adult longitudinal age differences in risk-taking propensity in different domains. METHODS: We report results from 26 longitudinal samples (12 panels; 187,733 unique respondents; 19 countries) covering general and domain-specific risk-taking propensity (financial, driving, recreational, occupational, health) across 3 or more waves. RESULTS: Results revealed a negative relation between age and both general and domain-specific risk-taking propensity. Furthermore, females consistently reported lower levels of risk taking across the life span than males in all domains, but there is little support for the idea of an age by gender interaction. Although we found evidence of systematic and universal age differences, we also detected considerable heterogeneity across domains and samples. DISCUSSION: Our work suggests a need to understand the nature of heterogeneity of age differences in risk-taking propensity and recommends the use of domain-specific and population estimates for applications interested in modeling heterogeneity in risk preference for economic and policy-making purposes.

Structural differences in the semantic networks of younger and older adults.

Cognitive science invokes semantic networks to explain diverse phenomena, from memory retrieval to creativity. Research in these areas often assumes a single underlying semantic network that is shared across individuals. Yet, recent evidence suggests that content, size, and connectivity of semantic networks are experience-dependent, implying sizable individual and age-related differences. Here, we investigate individual and age differences in the semantic networks of younger and older adults by deriving semantic networks from both fluency and similarity rating tasks. Crucially, we use a megastudy approach to obtain thousands of similarity ratings per individual to allow us to capture the characteristics of individual semantic networks. We find that older adults possess lexical networks with smaller average degree and longer path lengths relative to those of younger adults, with older adults showing less interindividual agreement and thus more unique lexical representations relative to younger adults. Furthermore, this approach shows that individual and age differences are not evenly distributed but, rather, are related to weakly connected, peripheral parts of the networks. All in all, these results reveal the interindividual differences in both the content and the structure of semantic networks that may accumulate across the life span as a function of idiosyncratic experiences.

On the semantic representation of risk.

What are the defining features of lay people's semantic representation of risk? We contribute to mapping the semantics of risk based on word associations to provide insight into both universal and individual differences in the representation of risk. Specifically, we introduce a mini-snowball word association paradigm and use the tools of network and sentiment analysis to characterize the semantics of risk. We find that association-based representations not only corroborate but also extend those extracted from past survey- and text-based approaches. Crucially, we find that the semantics of risk show universal properties and individual and group differences. Most notably, while semantic clusters generalize across languages, their frequency varies systematically across demographic groups, with older and female respondents showing more negative connotations and mentioning more often certain types of activities (e.g., recreational activities) relative to younger adults and males, respectively. Our work has general implications for the measurement of risk-related constructs by suggesting that "risk" can mean different things to different individuals.

Temporal discounting across adulthood: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

A number of developmental theories have been proposed that make differential predictions about the links between age and temporal discounting, or the devaluation of future rewards. Most empirical studies examining adult age differences in temporal discounting have relied on economic intertemporal choice tasks, which pit choosing a smaller, sooner monetary reward against choosing a larger, later one. Although initial studies using these tasks suggested older adults discount less than younger adults, follow-up studies provided heterogeneous, and thus inconclusive, results. Using an open science approach, we test the replicability of adult age differences in temporal discounting by conducting a preregistered systematic literature search and meta-analysis of adult age differences in intertemporal choice tasks. Across 37 cross-sectional studies (Total N = 104,737), a planned meta-analysis found no sizeable relation between age and temporal discounting, r = -0.068, 95% CI [-0.170, 0.035]. We also found little evidence of publication bias or p-hacking. Exploratory analyses of moderators found no effect of research design (e.g., extreme-group vs. continuous age), incentives (hypothetical vs. real rewards), duration of delay (e.g., days, weeks, months, or years), or quantification of discounting behavior (e.g., proportion of immediate choices vs. parameters from computational modeling). Additional analyses of 12 participant-level data sets found little support for a nonlinear relation between age and temporal discounting across adulthood. Overall, the results suggest that younger, middle-aged, and older adults show similar preferences for smaller, sooner over larger, later rewards. We provide recommendations for future empirical work on temporal discounting across the adult life span. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Using Network Science to Understand the Aging Lexicon: Linking Individuals' Experience, Semantic Networks, and Cognitive Performance.

People undergo many idiosyncratic experiences throughout their lives that may contribute to individual differences in the size and structure of their knowledge representations. Ultimately, these can have important implications for individuals' cognitive performance. We review evidence that suggests a relationship between individual experiences, the size and structure of semantic representations, as well as individual and age differences in cognitive performance. We conclude that the extent to which experience-dependent changes in semantic representations contribute to individual differences in cognitive aging remains unclear. To help fill this gap, we outline an empirical agenda that utilizes network analysis and involves the concurrent assessment of large-scale semantic networks and cognitive performance in younger and older adults. We present preliminary data to establish the feasibility and limitations of such empirical, network-analytical approaches.

Does information structuring improve recall of discharge information? A cluster randomized clinical trial.

OBJECTIVES: The impact of the quality of discharge communication between physicians and their patients is critical on patients' health outcomes. Nevertheless, low recall of information given to patients at discharge from emergency departments (EDs) is a well-documented problem. Therefore, we investigated the outcomes and related benefits of two different communication strategies: Physicians were instructed to either use empathy (E) or information structuring (S) skills hypothesizing superior recall by patients in the S group. METHODS: For the direct comparison of two communication strategies at discharge, physicians were cluster-randomized to an E or a S skills training. Feasibility was measured by training completion rates. Outcomes were measured in patients immediately after discharge, after 7, and 30 days. Primary outcome was patients' immediate recall of discharge information. Secondary outcomes were feasibility of training implementation, patients' adherence to recommendations and satisfaction, as well as the patient-physician relationship. RESULTS: Of 117 eligible physicians, 80 (68.4%) completed the training. Out of 256 patients randomized to one of the two training groups (E: 146 and S: 119) 196 completed the post-discharge assessment. Patients' immediate recall of discharge information was superior in patients in the S-group vs. E-group. Patients in the S-group adhered to more recommendations within 30 days (p = .002), and were more likely to recommend the physician to family and friends (p = .021). No differences were found on other assessed outcome domains. CONCLUSIONS AND PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: Immediate recall and subsequent adherence to recommendations were higher in the S group. Feasibility was shown by a 69.6% completion rate of trainings. Thus, trainings of discharge information structuring are feasible and improve patients' recall, and may therefore improve quality of care in the ED.

Identifying robust correlates of risk preference: A systematic approach using specification curve analysis.

People's risk preferences are thought to be central to many consequential real-life decisions, making it important to identify robust correlates of this construct. Various psychological theories have put forth a series of candidate correlates, yet the strength and robustness of their associations remain unclear because of disparate operationalizations of risk preference and analytic limitations in past research. We addressed these issues with a study involving several operationalizations of risk preference (all collected from each participant in a diverse sample of the German population; N = 916), and by adopting an exhaustive modeling approach-specification curve analysis. Our analyses of 6 candidate correlates (household income, sex, age, fluid intelligence, crystallized intelligence, years of education) suggest that sex and age have robust and consistent associations with risk preference, whereas the other candidate correlates show weaker and more (domain-) specific associations (except for crystallized intelligence, for which there were no robust associations). The results further demonstrate the important role of construct operationalization when assessing people's risk preferences: Self-reported propensity measures picked up various associations with the proposed correlates, but (incentivized) behavioral measures largely failed to do so. In short, the associations between the 6 candidate correlates and risk preference depend mostly on how risk preference is measured, rather than whether and which control variables are included in the model specifications. The present findings inform several theories that have suggested candidate correlates of risk preference, and illustrate how personality research may profit from exhaustive modeling techniques to improve theory and measurement of essential constructs. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Brain-Behavior Associations for Risk Taking Depend on the Measures Used to Capture Individual Differences.

Maladaptive risk taking can have severe individual and societal consequences; thus, individual differences are prominent targets for intervention and prevention. Although brain activation has been shown to be associated with individual differences in risk taking, the directionality of the reported brain-behavior associations is less clear. Here, we argue that one aspect contributing to the mixed results is the low convergence between risk-taking measures, especially between the behavioral tasks used to elicit neural functional markers. To address this question, we analyzed within-participant neuroimaging data for two widely used risk-taking tasks collected from the imaging subsample of the Basel-Berlin Risk Study (N = 116 young human adults). Focusing on core brain regions implicated in risk taking (nucleus accumbens, anterior insula, and anterior cingulate cortex), for the two tasks, we examined group-level activation for risky versus safe choices, as well as associations between local functional markers and various risk-related outcomes, including psychometrically derived risk preference factors. While we observed common group-level activation in the two tasks (notably increased nucleus accumbens activation), individual differences analyses support the idea that the presence and directionality of associations between brain activation and risk taking varies as a function of the risk-taking measures used to capture individual differences. Our results have methodological implications for the use of brain markers for intervention or prevention.

Good + Bad = ? Developmental Differences in Balancing Gains and Losses in Value-Based Decisions From Memory.

Value-based decisions often involve comparisons between benefits and costs that must be retrieved from memory. To investigate the development of value-based decisions, 9- to 10-year olds (N = 30), 11- to 12-year olds (N = 30), and young adults (N = 30) first learned to associate gain and loss magnitudes with symbols. In a subsequent decision task, participants rapidly evaluated objects that consisted of combinations of these symbols. All age groups achieved high decision performance and were sensitive to gain-loss magnitudes, suggesting that required core cognitive abilities are developed early. A cognitive-modeling analysis of performance revealed that children were less efficient in object evaluation (drift rate) and had longer nondecision times than adults. Developmental differences, which emerged particularly for objects of high positive net value, were linked to mnemonic and numerical abilities.

New Perspectives on the Aging Lexicon.

The field of cognitive aging has seen considerable advances in describing the linguistic and semantic changes that happen during the adult life span to uncover the structure of the mental lexicon (i.e., the mental repository of lexical and conceptual representations). Nevertheless, there is still debate concerning the sources of these changes, including the role of environmental exposure and several cognitive mechanisms associated with learning, representation, and retrieval of information. We review the current status of research in this field and outline a framework that promises to assess the contribution of both ecological and psychological aspects to the aging lexicon.

Three gaps and what they may mean for risk preference.

Risk preference is one of the most important building blocks of choice theories in the behavioural sciences. In economics, it is often conceptualized as preferences concerning the variance of monetary payoffs, whereas in psychology, risk preference is often thought to capture the propensity to engage in behaviour with the potential for loss or harm. Both concepts are associated with distinct measurement traditions: economics has traditionally relied on behavioural measures, while psychology has often relied on self-reports. We review three important gaps that have emerged from work stemming from these two measurement traditions: first, a description-experience gap which suggests that behavioural measures do not speak with one voice and can give very different views on an individual's appetite for risk; second, a behaviour-self-report gap which suggests that different self-report measures, but not behavioural measures, show a high degree of convergent validity; and, third, a temporal stability gap which suggests that self-reports, but not behavioural measures, show considerable temporal stability across periods of years. Risk preference, when measured through self-reports-but not behavioural tests-appears as a moderately stable psychological trait with both general and domain-specific components. We argue that future work needs to address the gaps that have emerged from the two measurement traditions and test their differential predictive validity for important economic, health and well-being outcomes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Risk taking and impulsive behaviour: fundamental discoveries, theoretical perspectives and clinical implications'.

The influence of information structuring and health literacy on recall and satisfaction in a simulated discharge communication.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the effects of information structuring and its potential interaction with pre-existing medical knowledge on recall in a simulated discharge communication. METHODS: 127 proxy-patients (i.e. students) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions. Video vignettes provided identical information, differing in means of information structuring only: The natural conversation (NC) condition was not explicitly structured whereas the structure (S) condition presented information organised by chapter headings. The book metaphor (BM) and the post organizer (PO) conditions also presented structured information but in addition included a synopsis, either at the beginning or at the end of discharge communication, respectively. Proxy-patients' recall, perception of quality and pre-existing medical knowledge were assessed. RESULTS: Information structuring (conditions: S, BM, PO) did not increase recall in comparison to NC, but pre-existing medical knowledge improved recall (p < .01). An interaction between medical knowledge and recall in the BM condition was found (p = .02). In comparison to the NC, proxy-patients in all information structuring conditions more strongly recommended the physician (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Structured discharge communication complemented by the BM is beneficial in individuals with lower pre-existing medical knowledge. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: The lower pre-existing medical knowledge, the more recipients will profit from information structuring with the BM.

Age differences in intertemporal choice: U-shaped associations in a probability sample of German households.

To describe adult age differences in intertemporal choice, we analyzed data from 1,491 participants who completed an incentivized monetary intertemporal discounting choice task involving different conditions (e.g., time delay of 12 months vs. 1 month). Respondents completed a number of other survey measures including behavioral measures of cognitive ability and self-reports concerning health, financial security, and demographic characteristics. We found significant quadratic (U-shaped) effects of age in task conditions involving 12-month (but not 1-month) delays, with middle-aged adults proving most patient relative to younger and older adults. The age effects found were robust to the inclusion of covariates, including cognitive ability, that have been suggested to underlie individual and age differences in time preferences. The results favor theories that propose nonlinear effects of age-related processes or multiple mechanisms underlying the development of intertemporal choice across the life span and suggest that it is important to consider long time delays and wide age ranges when trying to understand age differences in time preferences. (PsycINFO Database Record