Survival of patients with cervical cancer in India - findings from 11 population based cancer registries under National Cancer Registry Programme.

Background: Cancer survival data from Population Based Cancer Registries (PBCR) reflect the average outcome of patients in the population, which is critical for cancer control efforts. Despite decreasing incidence rates, cervical cancer is the second most common female cancer in India, accounting for 10% of all female cancers. The objective of the study is to estimate the five-year survival of patients with cervical cancer diagnosed between 2012 and 2015 from the PBCRs in India. Methods: A single primary incidence of cervical cancer cases of 11 PBCRs (2012-2015) was followed till June 30, 2021 (n = 5591). Active follow-ups were conducted through hospital visits, telephone calls, home or field visits, and public databases. Five-year Observed Survival (OS) and Age Standardised Relative Survival (ASRS) was calculated. OS was measured by age and clinical extent of disease for cervical cancers. Findings: The five-year ASRS (95% CI) of cervical cancer was 51.7% (50.2%-53.3%). Ahmedabad urban (61.5%; 57.4%-65.4%) had a higher survival followed by Thiruvananthapuram (58.8%; 53.1%-64.3%) and Kollam (56.1%; 50.7%-61.3%). Tripura had the lowest overall survival rate (31.6%; 27.2%-36.1%). The five-year OS% for pooled PBCRs was 65.9%, 53.5%, and 18.0% for localised, regional, and distant metastasis, respectively. Interpretation: We observed a wide variation in cervical cancer survival within India. The findings of this study would help the policymakers to identify and address inequities in the health system. We re-emphasise the importance of awareness, early detection, and increase the improvement of the health care system. Funding: The National Cancer Registry Programme is funded through intra-mural funding by Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, India, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare.

Choice of baseline hazards in joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event cancer survival data.

Longitudinal time-to-event analysis is a statistical method to analyze data where covariates are measured repeatedly. In survival studies, the risk for an event is estimated using Cox-proportional hazard model or extended Cox-model for exogenous time-dependent covariates. However, these models are inappropriate for endogenous time-dependent covariates like longitudinally measured biomarkers, Carcinoembryonic Antigen (CEA). Joint models that can simultaneously model the longitudinal covariates and time-to-event data have been proposed as an alternative. The present study highlights the importance of choosing the baseline hazards to get more accurate risk estimation. The study used colon cancer patient data to illustrate and compare four different joint models which differs based on the choice of baseline hazards [piecewise-constant Gauss-Hermite (GH), piecewise-constant pseudo-adaptive GH, Weibull Accelerated Failure time model with GH & B-spline GH]. We conducted simulation study to assess the model consistency with varying sample size (N = 100, 250, 500) and censoring (20 %, 50 %, 70 %) proportions. In colon cancer patient data, based on Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC), piecewise-constant pseudo-adaptive GH was found to be the best fitted model. Despite differences in model fit, the hazards obtained from the four models were similar. The study identified composite stage as a prognostic factor for time-to-event and the longitudinal outcome, CEA as a dynamic predictor for overall survival in colon cancer patients. Based on the simulation study Piecewise-PH-aGH was found to be the best model with least AIC and BIC values, and highest coverage probability(CP). While the Bias, and RMSE for all the models showed a competitive performance. However, Piecewise-PH-aGH has shown least bias and RMSE in most of the combinations and has taken the shortest computation time, which shows its computational efficiency. This study is the first of its kind to discuss on the choice of baseline hazards.

COVID-19 Impact on Newly Diagnosed Breast Cancers at Regional Cancer Centre, Thiruvananthapuram-An Audit.

Geethu Babu The coronavirus pandemic has created havoc in every aspect of life including cancer care and was declared a pandemic. This audit was conducted to study the impact of the pandemic on diagnosis and treatment of newly diagnosed breast cancer patients at a tertiary cancer center in South India. A total of 1,647 patients who registered at Regional Cancer Centre (RCC), Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India for breast cancer during the period April 1, 2020, to September 30, 2020 (COVID-19 period) as well as April 1, 2019, to September 30, 2019 (pre-COVID-19 period) were included in the study. Data regarding the geographic distribution, stage at presentation, time factors for reporting for care, diagnosis, and treatment, referral for care elsewhere were collected and analyzed. The study was approved by the Institutional Review Board. Means and ranges were calculated for continuous type variables, and numbers and percentages for categorical variables. To determine whether there were significant differences between the two groups, independent t -test was used for continuous variables and chi-square test for categorical type of variables. A notable reduction (36%) in newly diagnosed breast cancer patients was seen in 2020 when compared with 2019. There was a significant difference in the geographic distribution of patients in both cohorts ( p = 0.001) and a notable reduction in the number of patients reporting to RCC for treatment from the northern districts of Kerala (81%) and outside Kerala (89.5%). There was no significant difference in the time (in weeks) since symptom onset and reporting to hospital or the clinical stage at diagnosis between the groups. Also, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) did not seem to negatively impact time intervals between date of registration and pathological diagnosis or start of primary treatment. More patients received neoadjuvant systemic therapy during 2020 compared with 2019, and this difference was statistically significant ( p = 0.004). There was no difference in the type of surgery (breast-conserving surgery vs. modified radical mastectomy). The results demonstrate that COVID-19 did not appear to negatively impact the diagnosis and treatment of newly diagnosed breast cancer patients. However, this is largely attributable to the significantly less number of patients who registered, for whom the departments were able to maintain timely cancer care despite the difficult pandemic times. Significantly more patients received neoadjuvant systemic therapy in 2020.

Evaluation of factors influencing lymph node metastasis in endometrial cancers: A retrospective study.

OBJECTIVES: The role of lymphadenectomy in the management of early endometrial cancer remains controversial. The aim of our study was to evaluate risk factors associated with nodal metastases in endometrial cancer and to devise a predictive risk model based on the significant risk factors in predicting node metastasis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on women diagnosed with uterus-confined endometrial cancer, and who underwent surgical staging with pelvic and/or paraaortic lymphadenectomy from our center during July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2019. Clinical details, Magnetic Resonance imaging (MRI)-detected myometrial invasion, and pre and post-operative histological details of tumor were correlated with pelvic and/or para-aortic lymph node metastasis. Risk factors were assessed using logistic regression model and risk models devised. RESULTS: 128 patients were included in the study. Paraaortic lymphadenectomy was done in 72.7% patients. Nodal metastasis was seen in 14.8% of patients. Logistic regression analyses revealed lymphovascular invasion (P = 0.002), parametrial involvement (P = 0.017) and nonendometrioid histology (P = 0.004) to be significant risk factors. Tumor size >2 cm, grade 3 and deep myometrial invasion had higher risk for nodal metastasis, although non-significant. Risk models were derived with sensitivity of 79-89.5%, specificity of 58.7-69.7%, Negative predictive value (NPV) of 95-97% and accuracy of 63-71%. CONCLUSION: Lymphovascular invasion, nonendometrioid histology and parametrial involvement are independent predictors of lymph node metastasis in endometrial cancer. Risk models using these risk factors can better predict the risk of nodal metastasis and thus avoid lymph node dissection in low risk patients. Our risk models had reasonably good sensitivity in nodal metastasis prediction and require further validation.

Breast cancer survival in India across 11 geographic areas under the National Cancer Registry Programme.

BACKGROUND: Population-based cancer survival is a key indicator for assessing the effectiveness of cancer control by a health care system in a specific geographic area. Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in India, accounting for over one quarter of all female cancers. The objective of this study was to estimate the 5-year survival of female patients who were diagnosed with breast cancer between 2012 and 2015 from the existing Population-Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs) in India. METHODS: In total, 17,331 patients who had breast cancer diagnosed between 2012 and 2015 from 11 PBCRs were followed until June 30, 2021. Active methods were used to track the vital status of registered breast cancer cases. The study conducted survival analysis by calculating the difference between the date of first diagnosis and the date of death or censoring to estimate observed survival and relative survival using the actuarial survival approach and the Ederer-II approach, respectively. RESULTS: The 5-year age-standardized relative survival (95% confidence interval [CI]) of patients with breast cancer was 66.4% (95% CI, 65.5%-67.3%). Mizoram (74.9%; 95% CI, 68.1%-80.8%), Ahmedabad urban (72.7%; 95% CI, 70.3%-74.9%), Kollam (71.5%; 95% CI, 69.2%-73.6%), and Thiruvananthapuram (69.1%; 95% CI, 67.0%-71.2%) had higher survival rates than the national average. Conversely, Pasighat had the lowest survival rate (41.9%; 95% CI, 14.7%-68.6%). The 5-year observed survival rates for localized, regional, and distant metastasis in the pooled PBCRs were 81.0%, 65.5%, and 18.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The overall disparity in survival rates was observed across 11 PBCRs, with lower survival rates reported in Manipur, Tripura, and Pasighat. Therefore, it is imperative to implement comprehensive cancer control strategies widely throughout the country.

Spatiotemporal pattern of thyroid cancer incidence in South Kerala: A population-based study.

Background: Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common endocrine cancer and has been increasing over the past decades worldwide. A notable finding is that Kerala's capital Thiruvananthapuram ranks the first among men and the second highest among women in the incidence of TC in India. Reasons for this increase have not been established. Objectives: Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of TC incidence in Thiruvananthapuram. Materials and Methods: TC incidence data (n = 1937) of Population Based Cancer Registry Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India, between 2012 and 2016, were analyzed for identifying geographical patterns by spatial methods, temporal methods for studying spatial variation in TC incidence, distribution of age, gender, and histology in lowland (coastal), midland, and highland. Results: Spatial clustering of TC incidence was identified consistently near the coastal region based on all geospatial analyses. 56.9%, 23.9%, and 19.2% of TC cases were observed in the coastal, midland, and highland areas, respectively. A significant clustered pattern of TC incidence was revealed by Moran's index I (0.49), high-high clusters by local Moran's, hotspot by Getis-Ord-Gi* (P < 0.05), point pattern analysis by nearest neighbor ratio and kernel density estimation. The relative risk of the significant cluster was obtained as 1.60 (95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.84) by SaTScan analysis. Conclusion: This study identified spatial variations in the pattern of TC cases with significant clusters near the coastal region of Thiruvananthapuram. This would help to pinpoint the high-risk geographical areas of TC and for more effective cancer control programs.

Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Arising from Thyroglossal Cyst-an Institutional Experience over a Decade.

Papillary carcinoma constitutes 80% of thyroglossal duct cyst carcinoma (TGCC). The mainstay of treatment for TGCC is Sistrunk procedure. Due to lack of clear-cut guidelines in managing TGCC, the role of total thyroidectomy, neck dissection and adjuvant radioiodine therapy is still debatable. This was a retrospective study which included cases of TGCC treated in our institution over a period of 11 years. The aim of study was to assess the need for total thyroidectomy in management of TGCC. Patients were divided into two groups based on the surgical treatment they underwent and the treatment outcomes were compared. The histology was papillary carcinoma in all cases of TGCC. Overall, 43.3% of TGCCs had a focus of papillary carcinoma in total thyroidectomy specimen. Lymph node metastasis was noted only in 10% of TGCC and not identified in isolated papillary carcinoma confined to thyroglossal cyst. 7-year overall survival (OS) for TGCC was 83.1%. Prognostic factors like extracapsular extension or lymph node metastasis did not affect OS. Addition of total thyroidectomy and neck dissection to Sistrunk procedure did not offer any survival advantage. In a case of TGCC, FNAC should be done from any clinically suspicious thyroid nodules or lymph nodes. TGCC has a good prognosis following treatment and none of the cases in our series has disease recurrence during follow-up. Sistrunk procedure was an adequate procedure for treatment of TGCC with clinically and radiologically normal thyroid gland.

Clinical Profile and Survival Outcome of Endometrial Cancer with p53 Mutation.

Clinicopathologic classification of endometrial cancer imperfectly reflects the tumor biology. Pathologic categorization - especially in high-grade tumors - results in an imprecise estimation of the risk of disease, recurrence, and death. Molecular subtyping is emerging as the standard of care in diagnosis and treatment of endometrial cancers. Molecular markers are important prognostic factors in tumor dissemination and early recurrence of endometrial cancers. TP53 mutation is an important prognostic factor for both serous and endometrioid cancers. The study aims to compare the clinical profile and overall survival of endometrial cancers with and without p53 mutation. Sixty-three patients who underwent surgical staging for carcinoma endometrium were included in the study.TP53 mutation status was determined based on p53 expression by immunohistochemistry (IHC) as a p53 wild or p53 mutant type. Data were analyzed for the clinical profile, p53 mutation status on IHC, histological pattern, tumor grade, stage of the disease, lymph node spread, recurrence pattern, treatment received, 2-year disease-free survival, and overall survival. Recurrence was noted in 12.7% patients after 2-year follow-up, of which 75% patients had p53 mutation. Significant association was seen between p53 expression and high-grade tumors, stage, cervical involvement, and adnexal involvement. The 2-year overall survival of the p53 wild type was 97.2% and the p53 mutant type was 91.7%. The 2-year disease-free survival for the p53 wild type was 94.3% and the disease-free survival of the p53 mutant variety was 83.5%. The 2-year disease-free survival for endometrioid carcinoma with p53 wild type was 100% and p53 mutant variety was 86.2% (p value 0.033). About 15.9% (10) patients were reassigned to the high-risk group needing chemotherapy and radiation according to the ESGO ESTRO 2021 consensus classification, due to their p53 mutation status. IHC to assess somatic p53 mutation may be done in endometrial biopsies irrespective of their histology. This may help to identify that the aggressive tumors thereby help in tailoring surgery, planning adjuvant treatment, and follow-up.

Three-week hypofractionated radiotherapy in early glottic cancer-a single institution retrospective study.

Background: Radiotherapy is a standard treatment option for early glottic carcinoma (stage I and II) with a fraction size of 2-2.2 Gy over 5-7 weeks. This study evaluates the outcome and prognostic factors of a 3-week hypofractionated treatment in early glottic malignancy. Materials and Methods: The case records of 329 eligible patients with stage I and II glottic carcinoma recorded at the institution from 2003 to 2008 were retrospectively analysed. All patients were treated in a Cobalt-60 machine to a dose of 52.5 Gy in 15 fractions (3.5 Gy/fraction) over 3 weeks. Results: Eighty-three percent had stage I disease. The local control rate at 5 years was 91.9%. On univariate analysis, stage I and II patients without subglottic extension had better local control. Disease extension to the subglottis fared poorly on multivariate analysis. After salvage treatment, the 5-year disease-free survival rate was 96.1% and the functional larynx preservation rate was 94.9% for stage I and 83.9% for stage II. The rate of severe complications was 2.1%. Conclusion: Comparable results with low morbidity are achievable with a 3-week hypofractionation in early glottic cancers and it offers better patient convenience. Highlights: In early glottic cancer, hypofractionated radiation provides excellent local control.Subglottic extension is a poor prognostic factor.5-year disease-free survival rate of 96.1%.5-year functional larynx preservation rate of 94.9%.Severe complication rate of 2.1%.

Risk factors and prevalence of cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions among women in south India: A community-based cross-sectional study.

Background: ">Cervical cancer in India accounts for one-fifth of the global burden. Well-defined precancerous stages help early detection of the disease. Apart from human papillomavirus, the risk factors include age, education, occupation, early age at marriage and first delivery, abortions, and multiple sexual partners. Prevalence and risk factors for cervical squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL) among women by Pap smear screening in south India were analyzed through a cross-sectional study. Methods: ">Women from rural and urban area were motivated by local accredited social health activists to attend pre-fixed Pap smear clinics in government hospitals. Pap smears collected in these clinics were taken to the Regional Cancer Centre, Thiruvananthapuram, processed, and cytology reports were prepared. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for SIL and high-grade SIL (HSIL). Results: ">The number of SIL was 67 out of 10,580 and HSIL was 39. Having higher education (Odds Ratio, OR:0.05(95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.01-0.2), being married but living single (OR : 5.3, 95%CI:2.4-11.5), Having >2 abortions (OR:21, 95% CI:4.5-24), having younger age at delivery (OR : 0.1, 95% CI:0.01-0.3) and having unhealthy cervix (OR: 16.4, 95% CI:6.2-42.7) were the factors found to be the associated risk factors in multiple regression analysis. Conclusion: ">Pap smear screening can be focused on women with risk factors such as low education, married but living single, having >2 abortions, younger age at delivery, and unhealthy cervix on per speculum examination.

Evaluation of Factors Affecting Margin Positivity and Persistent Disease After Leep for Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia.

BACKGROUND: Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) is the precursor lesion of cervical cancer. Untreated high-grade CIN significantly increases the risk of developing invasive cancer. Conization is the main treatment. Loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP) is the most common conization method used. The study aims to assess the risk factors associated with positive margin and persistent disease after LEEP for CIN. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 156 patients who underwent LEEP during 2011-2018 included in the study. We analyzed the socio-demographic characteristics, colposcopy details, dimensions of LEEP specimen (thickness, length, volume) and histopathology (margin positivity, grade). Persistent disease was histologically confirmed by repeat LEEP and hysterectomy. RESULTS: Margin positivity was noted in 33.3% (52) patients. Residual disease was noted in 26.2% (41) of the patients who had undergone a repeat LEEP or hysterectomy. There was a significant association between margin positivity and Swede score of 5 or more, a high-grade lesion on IFCPC score, inner margin involvement, LEEP done in a single pass. The cutoff for margin positivity was length of 0.513 cm and thickness of 0.35 cm. A significant association between residual disease and margin positivity, postmenopausal status, Swede score of 5 or more, high-grade lesion on IFCPC score, inner margin involvement was observed. The chance of residual disease was less if the cone specimen had minimum length of 0.775 cm and minimum thickness of 0.65 cm. CONCLUSION: When in doubt regarding the margins, it is always better to perform multiple passes for lesions with a high Swede score with an initial smear of HSIL. Postmenopausal women with inner margin positivity have a high chance of residual disease and should be either kept on close follow-up or consider a repeat procedure.

Educational Status, Cancer Stage, and Survival in South India: A Population-Based Study.

PURPOSE: Lower socioeconomic status is associated with more advanced cancer at the time of cancer diagnosis. It is unknown whether this leads to inferior survival in low- and middle-income countries. Here, we explore the association between educational level and survival in South India. METHODS: The Trivandrum Cancer Registry (3.3 million population) was used to identify all cases of breast and cervical cancer (women) and oral cavity (OC) and lung cancer (men) diagnosed during 2012-2014. Educational level was classified as illiterate/primary school, middle school, and secondary school and above. Survival was measured from date of diagnosis using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was used to describe the associations among education, stage of cancer at diagnosis, and survival. RESULTS: The study population included 3,640 patients with breast (n = 1,727), cervical (n = 425), OC (n = 702), and lung (n = 786) cancer. Educational level was 27%, 23%, and 32% for illiterate/primary, middle, and secondary school and above, respectively. The 5-year survival rate for breast cancer was 59%, 68%, and 73% (P = .001); for cervical cancer, 51%, 52%, and 60% (P = .146); and for OC cancer, 42%, 35%, and 48% (P = .012) for illiterate/primary, middle school, and secondary school and above, respectively. The survival gradient across social groups was substantially attenuated when stage was added to the multivariable model. There was no observed difference in survival across educational groups for lung cancer (2%, 4%, and 3%; P = .224). CONCLUSION: Data from this population-based study in South India demonstrate that patients from a lower educational background have inferior survival and that this is at least partially explained by having more advanced disease at the time of diagnosis. Public health efforts are needed to facilitate timely diagnosis and reduce disparities in cancer outcomes.

Performance of colposcopic scoring by modified International Federation of Cervical Pathology and Colposcopy terminology for diagnosing cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in a low-resource setting.

INTRODUCTION: Colposcopy is a tool to evaluate women with cervical pre-cancer and cancer. To interpret the colposcopic findings, various scoring systems are used but with inter observer variations. To improve the quality of colposcopy, International Federation of Cervical Pathology and Colposcopy (IFCPC) has introduced a colposcopic nomenclature in 2011. Colposcopic scoring helps to select patients who need treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. AIM OF THE STUDY: The study aimed to evaluate the agreement between colposcopic diagnosis with the modified IFCPC terminology and cervical pathology in patients with abnormal screening tests and to assess the utility of this colposcopic scoring system in low resource settings. METHODOLOGY: Patients with abnormal screening tests who underwent colposcopic assessment in the department of Gynaecological oncology were included in the study. Colposcopic scoring was done by the modified IFCPC nomenclature. The results were compared with cytology and the final histopathology. RESULTS: 56 patients were included in the study. The colposcopic scoring when compared to histopathology showed agreement in 65.7% which indicated the agreement was substantial and was statistically significant (P = 0.0001). With cytology the colposcopic score showed agreement in 35.6% indicating a fair agreement and this was also statistically significant (P = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Colposcopic scoring by modified IFCPC 2011 criteria showed substantial agreement with cervical histopathology. Compared to traditional methods, 2011 international terminology of colposcopy could improve colposcopic accuracy.

Reproductive factors and thyroid cancer risk: Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Assessed pooled risk on reproductive factors and oral contraceptives (OC) on thyroid cancer (TC) using published studies (1996-2017). METHODS: Summary odds ratio (OR) for case-control studies (n = 10) and risk ratio (RR) for cohort studies (n = 9) was done. RESULTS: OR was 1.43 (95% CI: 1.16-1.77) for age at menarche >14 years, 1.49 (95% CI: 1.19-1.86) for parity >2, 1.38 (95% CI: 1.18-1.61) for miscarriage/abortion, and 2.05 (95% CI: 1.39-3.01) for artificial menopause. A protective effect (ORs: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.72-0.99) on TC was observed for prolonged use of OCs. RR was 1.17 (95% CI: 0.90-1.57) for age at menarche >14 years, 1.10 (95% CI: 0.94-1.27) for parity >2, 1.20 (95% CI: 1.03-1.40) for miscarriage/abortion, and 2.16 (95% CI: 1.41-3.31) for artificial menopause and protective effect (RR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.65-0.92) for prolonged use of OCs. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis supports an association due to changes in female hormones during menstrual cycle and pregnancy with the risk of TC and explains female preponderance.

Sociodemographic Factors and Stage of Cancer at Diagnosis: A Population-Based Study in South India.

PURPOSE: Lower socioeconomic status is associated with inferior cancer survival in high-income countries, but whether this applies to low- and middle-income countries is not well described. Here, we use a population-based cancer registry to explore the association between educational level and stage of cancer at diagnosis in South India. METHODS: We used the Trivandrum District population-based cancer registry to identify all cases of breast and cervical cancer (women) and oral cavity (OC) and lung cancer (men) who were diagnosed from 2012 to 2014. Educational status-classified as illiterate/primary school, middle school, or secondary school or higher-was the primary exposure of interest. Primary outcome was the proportion of patients with advanced stage disease at diagnosis defined as stage III and IV (breast, cervix, or OC) or regional/metastatic (lung). RESULTS: The study population included 4,547 patients with breast (n = 2,283), cervix (n = 481), OC (n = 797), and lung (n = 986) cancer. Educational status was 22%, 19%, and 26% for illiterate/primary, middle, and secondary school or higher, respectively. Educational status was missing for 33% of patients. The proportion of all patients with advanced stage disease was 37% (breast), 39% (cervix), 67% (OC), and 88% (lung). Patients with illiterate/primary school educational status were considerably more likely to have advanced breast cancer (50% v 39% v 36%; P < .001), cervix cancer (46% v 43% v 24%; P = .002), and OC cancer (77% v 76% v 59%; P < .001) compared with patients with higher educational levels. The proportion of patients with advanced lung cancer did not vary across educational levels (89% v 84% v 88%; P = .350). CONCLUSION: A substantial proportion of patients in South India have advanced cancer at the time of diagnosis. This is particularly true among those with the lowest levels of education. Future health awareness and preventive interventions must target less-educated communities to reduce delays in seeking medical care for cancer.

Transition of cancer in populations in India.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: An assessment of transition of cancer in India during the past 30 years, according to changes in demographic and epidemiologic risk factors was undertaken. MATERIALS & METHODS: Cancer registry data (http://www.ncdirindia.org), (population coverage <10%), was compared with transition in life-expectancy and prevalence on smoking, alcohol and obesity. We fitted linear regression to the natural logarithm of the estimated incidence rates of various cancer registries in India. RESULTS: Burden of cancer in India increased from 0.6 million in 1991 to 1.4 million in 2015. Among males, common cancers are lung (12.0%), mouth (11.4%), prostate (7.0%), and tongue (7.0%) and among females, they are breast (21.0%), cervix-uteri (12.1%), ovary (6.9%), and lung (4.9%) in 2012. Increased life-expectancy and population growth as well as increased use of alcohol and increased prevalence of overweight/obesity reflected an increase in all cancers in both genders except a reduction in infection-related cancers such as cervix-uteri and tobacco-related cancers such as pharynx (excludes nasopharynx) and oesophagus. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: Transition in demographics and epidemiologic risk factors, reflected an increase in all cancers in both genders except a reduction in a few cancers. The increasing incidence of cancer and its associated factors demands a planned approach to reduce its burden. The burden assessment needs to be strengthened by increasing the population coverage of cancer registries. Continued effort for tobacco prevention and public health efforts for reducing obesity and alcohol consumption are needed to reduce the cancer burden.

Cancer Incidence and Mortality: District Cancer Registry, Trivandrum, South India

Background: Cancer is emerging as a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low and middle-income countries. Cancer registry figures help for planning and delivery of health services. This paper provided the first results of cancer incidence and mortality [Crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] rates (world-standard population) of Trivandrum district, South India and compared with other registries under the network of National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP), Government of India. Materials and Methods: Trivandrum district cancer registry encompasses a population of 3.3 million, compiles data from nearly 75 sources (hospitals and diagnostic laboratories) and included under the NCRP in 2012. During 2012-2014, registry recorded 15,649 incident cases and 5667 deaths. Proportion of microscopic diagnosis was 85% and 'Death certificate only' was 8%. Results: Total cancer incidence (CRs) rates were 161 and 154 (ASR: 142.2 and 126) and mortality rates were 66 and 49 (ASR: 54 and 37) per 105 males and females respectively. Common cancers in males were lung (ASR:19), oral cavity (ASR:15), colo-rectum (ASR:11.2), prostate (ASR:10.2) and lymphoma (ASR:7) and in females, breast (ASR:36), thyroid (ASR:13.4), cervix-uteri (ASR:7.3), ovary (ASR:7) and colo-rectum (ASR:7). Nationally, the highest CRs for breast, prostate, colo-rectum, corpus-uteri and urinary bladder cancers and low incidence of cervix-uteri cancer were observed in Trivandrum. Conclusion: Cancer incidence (CR) in Trivandrum was the highest in both genders in India (except Aizwal). This is mainly due to the highest lifeexpectancy in Kerala. Also, an epidemiologic transition in cancer pattern is taking place and is changing to more similar to "western" jurisdictions.

Cancer Survival Estimates Due to Non-Uniform Loss to Follow-Up and Non-Proportional Hazards

Background: Cancer survival depends on loss to follow-up (LFU) and non-proportional hazards (non-PH). If LFU is high, survival will be over-estimated. If hazard is non-PH, rank tests will provide biased inference and Cox-model will provide biased hazard-ratio. We assessed the bias due to LFU and non-PH factor in cancer survival and provided alternate methods for unbiased inference and hazard-ratio. Materials and Methods: Kaplan-Meier survival were plotted using a realistic breast cancer (BC) data-set, with >40%, 5-year LFU and compared it using another BC data-set with <15%, 5-year LFU to assess the bias in survival due to high LFU. Age at diagnosis of the latter data set was used to illustrate the bias due to a non-PH factor. Log-rank test was employed to assess the bias in p-value and Cox-model was used to assess the bias in hazard-ratio for the non-PH factor. Schoenfeld statistic was used to test the non-PH of age. For the non-PH factor, we employed Renyi statistic for inference and time dependent Cox-model for hazard-ratio. Results: Five-year BC survival was 69% (SE: 1.1%) vs. 90% (SE: 0.7%) for data with low vs. high LFU respectively. Age (<45, 46-54 & >54 years) was a non-PH factor (p-value: 0.036). However, survival by age was significant (log-rank p-value: 0.026), but not significant using Renyi statistic (p=0.067). Hazard ratio (HR) for age using Cox-model was 1.012 (95%CI: 1.004 -1.019) and the same using time-dependent Cox-model was in the other direction (HR: 0.997; 95% CI: 0.997- 0.998). Conclusion: Over-estimated survival was observed for cancer with high LFU. Log-rank statistic and Cox-model provided biased results for non-PH factor. For data with non-PH factors, Renyi statistic and time dependent Cox-model can be used as alternate methods to obtain unbiased inference and estimates.

Role of laparoscopy in predicting surgical outcomes in patients undergoing interval cytoreduction surgery for advanced ovarian carcinoma: A prospective validation study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of laparoscopy in detecting inoperable disease in patients undergoing interval cytoreduction (ICR) for advanced ovarian carcinoma (AOC). The primary outcome measured was the performance of laparoscopy-based predictive index value (PIV) score developed by Fagotti et al. The secondary outcomes measured were performance of individual parameters included in PIV score and optimal cytoreduction (OCR) rates in our population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a single-arm, prospective validation trial. Patients undergoing ICR for AOC in our institution were evaluated prospectively with laparoscopy before planned attempt at debulking surgery. Seven laparoscopic parameters included in laparoscopic PIV score were evaluated. Laparoscopic findings were compared with the final outcomes of definitive surgery. OCR was defined as residual disease <1 cm. The efficiency of the individual laparoscopy score was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: A total of 73 patients planned for ICR for AEOC were included in the study. Laparoscopic PIV score could successfully predict inoperability in 12 (16.4% of total study population) out of 14 inoperable patients in the total population and thus could avoid 85% of unsuccessful surgeries at a PIV score cutoff of ≥8. Performance of individual parameters included in PIV score was also evaluated. Two parameters out of seven, that is, mesenteric retraction and stomach infiltration had poor performance on ROC curve. Modified PIV score was calculated for each patient after excluding these two parameters. Modified PIV score had similar performance as Fagotti's PIV score at cutoff ≥6 (P = 0.728, for difference in area under the curve). No staging laparoscopy-related serious adverse events were noted in any of the patients. CONCLUSIONS: Laparoscopy is a safe, effective, and accurate method for predicting inoperability in patients undergoing ICR for AEOC.

Temporal Trends and Future Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence Across Age Groups in Trivandrum, South India.

BACKGROUND: Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005- 2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum. MATERIALS AND METHODS: BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates. RESULTS: BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are <50 years of age and only 9% present with stage I disease. Average age increased from 53 to 56.4 years (p=0.0001), CR (per 105 women) increased from 39 (ASR: 35.2) to 55.4 (ASR: 43.4), AAPC for CR was 5.0 (p=0.001) and ASR was 3.1 (p=0.001). Rates increased from 50 years. Predicted ASpR is 174 in 50-59 years, 231 in > 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019- 20. CONCLUSIONS: BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied.