Stillbirth risk by fetal size among 126.5 million births in 15 countries from 2000 to 2020: A fetuses-at-risk approach.

OBJECTIVE: To compare stillbirth rates and risks for small for gestational age (SGA), large for gestational age (LGA) and appropriate for gestational age (AGA) pregnancies at 24-44 completed weeks of gestation using a birth-based and fetuses-at-risk approachs. DESIGN: Population-based, multi-country study. SETTING: National data systems in 15 high- and middle-income countries. POPULATION: Live births and stillbirths. METHODS: A total of 151 country-years of data, including 126 543 070 births across 15 countries from 2000 to 2020, were compiled. Births were categorised into SGA, AGA and LGA using INTERGROWTH-21st standards. Gestation-specific stillbirth rates, with total births as the denominator, and gestation-specific stillbirth risks, with fetuses still in utero as the denominator, were calculated from 24 to 44 weeks of gestation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Gestation-specific stillbirth rates and risks according to size at birth. RESULTS: The overall stillbirth rate was 4.22 per 1000 total births (95% CI 4.22-4.23) across all gestations. Applying the birth-based approach, the stillbirth rates were highest at 24 weeks of gestation, with 621.6 per 1000 total births (95% CI 620.9-622.2) for SGA pregnancies, 298.4 per 1000 total births (95% CI 298.1-298.7) for AGA pregnancies and 338.5 per 1000 total births (95% CI 337.9-339.0) for LGA pregnancies. Applying the fetuses-at-risk approach, the gestation-specific stillbirth risk was highest for SGA pregnancies (1.3-1.4 per 1000 fetuses at risk) prior to 29 weeks of gestation. The risk remained stable between 30 and 34 weeks of gestation, and then increased gradually from 35 weeks of gestation to the highest rate of 8.4 per 1000 fetuses at risk (95% CI 8.3-8.4) at ≥42 weeks of gestation. The stillbirth risk ratio (RR) was consistently high for SGA compared with AGA pregnancies, with the highest RR observed at ≥42 weeks of gestation (RR 9.2, 95% CI 15.2-13.2), and with the lowest RR observed at 24 weeks of gestation (RR 3.1, 95% CI 1.9-4.3). The stillbirth RR was also consistently high for SGA compared with AGA pregnancies across all countries, with national variability ranging from RR 0.70 (95% CI 0.43-0.97) in Mexico to RR 8.6 (95% CI 8.1-9.1) in Uruguay. No increased risk for LGA pregnancies was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Small for gestational age (SGA) was strongly associated with stillbirth risk in this study based on high-quality data from high- and middle-income countries. The highest RRs were seen in preterm gestations, with two-thirds of the stillbirths born as preterm births. To advance our understanding of stillbirth, further analyses should be conducted using high-quality data sets from low-income settings, particularly those with relatively high rates of SGA.

Neonatal mortality risk of large-for-gestational-age and macrosomic live births in 15 countries, including 115.6 million nationwide linked records, 2000-2020.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to compare the prevalence and neonatal mortality associated with large for gestational age (LGA) and macrosomia among 115.6 million live births in 15 countries, between 2000 and 2020. DESIGN: Population-based, multi-country study. SETTING: National healthcare systems. POPULATION: Liveborn infants. METHODS: We used individual-level data identified for the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. We calculated the prevalence and relative risk (RR) of neonatal mortality among live births born at term + LGA (>90th centile, and also >95th and >97th centiles when the data were available) versus term + appropriate for gestational age (AGA, 10th-90th centiles) and macrosomic (≥4000, ≥4500 and ≥5000 g, regardless of gestational age) versus 2500-3999 g. INTERGROWTH 21st served as the reference population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence and neonatal mortality risks. RESULTS: Large for gestational age was common (median prevalence 18.2%; interquartile range, IQR, 13.5%-22.0%), and overall was associated with a lower neonatal mortality risk compared with AGA (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.89). Around one in ten babies were ≥4000 g (median prevalence 9.6% (IQR 6.4%-13.3%), with 1.2% (IQR 0.7%-2.0%) ≥4500 g and with 0.2% (IQR 0.1%-0.2%) ≥5000 g). Overall, macrosomia of ≥4000 g was not associated with increased neonatal mortality risk (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69-0.94); however, a higher risk was observed for birthweights of ≥4500 g (RR 1.52, 95% CI 1.10-2.11) and ≥5000 g (RR 4.54, 95% CI 2.58-7.99), compared with birthweights of 2500-3999 g, with the highest risk observed in the first 7 days of life. CONCLUSIONS: In this population, birthweight of ≥4500 g was the most useful marker for early mortality risk in big babies and could be used to guide clinical management decisions.

Stillbirths: Contribution of preterm birth and size-for-gestational age for 125.4 million total births from nationwide records in 13 countries, 2000-2020.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the contribution of preterm birth and size-for-gestational age in stillbirths using six 'newborn types'. DESIGN: Population-based multi-country analyses. SETTING: Births collected through routine data systems in 13 countries. SAMPLE: 125 419 255 total births from 22+0 to 44+6 weeks' gestation identified from 2000 to 2020. METHODS: We included 635 107 stillbirths from 22+0 weeks' gestation from 13 countries. We classified all births, including stillbirths, into six 'newborn types' based on gestational age information (preterm, PT, <37+0 weeks versus term, T, ≥37+0 weeks) and size-for-gestational age defined as small (SGA, <10th centile), appropriate (AGA, 10th-90th centiles) or large (LGA, >90th centile) for gestational age, according to the international newborn size for gestational age and sex INTERGROWTH-21st standards. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Distribution of stillbirths, stillbirth rates and rate ratios according to six newborn types. RESULTS: 635 107 (0.5%) of the 125 419 255 total births resulted in stillbirth after 22+0 weeks. Most stillbirths (74.3%) were preterm. Around 21.2% were SGA types (PT + SGA [16.2%], PT + AGA [48.3%], T + SGA [5.0%]) and 14.1% were LGA types (PT + LGA [9.9%], T + LGA [4.2%]). The median rate ratio (RR) for stillbirth was highest in PT + SGA babies (RR 81.1, interquartile range [IQR], 68.8-118.8) followed by PT + AGA (RR 25.0, IQR, 20.0-34.3), PT + LGA (RR 25.9, IQR, 13.8-28.7) and T + SGA (RR 5.6, IQR, 5.1-6.0) compared with T + AGA. Stillbirth rate ratios were similar for T + LGA versus T + AGA (RR 0.7, IQR, 0.7-1.1). At the population level, 25% of stillbirths were attributable to small-for-gestational-age. CONCLUSIONS: In these high-quality data from high/middle income countries, almost three-quarters of stillbirths were born preterm and a fifth small-for-gestational age, with the highest stillbirth rates associated with the coexistence of preterm and SGA. Further analyses are needed to better understand patterns of gestation-specific risk in these populations, as well as patterns in lower-income contexts, especially those with higher rates of intrapartum stillbirth and SGA.

Understanding ethnic inequalities in stillbirth rates: a UK population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate inequalities in stillbirth rates by ethnicity to facilitate development of initiatives to target those at highest risk. DESIGN: Population-based perinatal mortality surveillance linked to national birth and death registration (Mothers and Babies: Reducing Risk through Audits and Confidential Enquiries across the UK). SETTING: UK. PARTICIPANTS: 4 391 569 singleton births at ≥24+0 weeks gestation between 2014 and 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Stillbirth rate difference per 1000 total births by ethnicity. RESULTS: Adjusted absolute differences in stillbirth rates were higher for babies of black African (3.83, 95% CI 3.35 to 4.32), black Caribbean (3.60, 95% CI 2.65 to 4.55) and Pakistani (2.99, 95% CI 2.58 to 3.40) ethnicities compared with white ethnicities. Higher proportions of babies of Bangladeshi (42%), black African (39%), other black (39%) and black Caribbean (37%) ethnicities were from most deprived areas, which were associated with an additional risk of 1.50 stillbirths per 1000 births (95% CI 1.32 to 1.67). Exploring primary cause of death, higher stillbirth rates due to congenital anomalies were observed in babies of Pakistani, Bangladeshi and black African ethnicities (range 0.63-1.05 per 1000 births) and more placental causes in black ethnicities (range 1.97 to 2.24 per 1000 births). For the whole population, over 40% of stillbirths were of unknown cause; however, this was particularly high for babies of other Asian (60%), Bangladeshi (58%) and Indian (52%) ethnicities. CONCLUSIONS: Stillbirth rates declined in the UK, but substantial excess risk of stillbirth persists among babies of black and Asian ethnicities. The combined disadvantage for black, Pakistani and Bangladeshi ethnicities who are more likely to live in most deprived areas is associated with considerably higher rates. Key causes of death were congenital anomalies and placental causes. Improved strategies for investigation of stillbirth causes are needed to reduce unexplained deaths so that interventions can be targeted to reduce stillbirths.

Cohort differences in disease and disability in the young-old: findings from the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC-CFAS).

BACKGROUND: Projections of health and social care need are highly sensitive to assumptions about cohort trends in health and disability. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional study from the Cambridgeshire centre of the UK Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study to investigate trends in the health of the young-old UK population METHODS: Non-overlapping cohorts of men and women aged 65-69 years in 1991/2 (n = 689) and 1996/7 (n = 687) were compared on: self-reported diseases and conditions; self-rated health; mobility limitation; disability by logistic regression and four-year survival by Cox Proportional Hazards Regression models, with adjustments for differences in socio-economic and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: Survival was similar between cohorts (HR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.62 to 1.32). There was a significant increase in the number of conditions reported between cohorts, with more participants reporting 3 or more conditions in the new cohort (14.2% vs. 10.1%). When individual conditions were considered, there was a 10% increase in the reporting of arthritis and a significant increase in the reporting of chronic airways obstruction (OR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.78). CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of rising levels of ill-health, as measured by the prevalence of self-reported chronic conditions, in the newer cohorts of the young-old. Though changes in diagnosis or reporting of disease cannot, as yet, be excluded, to better understand whether our findings reflect real increases in ill-health, investment should be made into improved population-based databases, linking self-report and objective measures of health and function, and including those in long-term care.

Does socio-economic advantage lead to a longer, healthier old age?

The effect of socio-economic disadvantage on mortality is well documented and differences exist even at older ages. However, whether this translates into differences in the quality of life lived at older ages is less well studied, and in particular in the proportion of remaining life spent without ill health (healthy life expectancy), a key UK Government target. Although there have been studies exploring socio-economic differences in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) worldwide, these have tended to focus on a single measure of socio-economic advantage, for example, education, race, social class or income, with the majority based on cross-sectional data from younger populations. In this prospective study we examine differences in DFLE and total life expectancy (TLE) at older ages using a range of measures of socio-economic advantage. We use a longitudinal study of 1480 participants aged 75 years or over in 1988 registered with a UK primary care practice, who were followed up until 2003 with measurements at up to seven time points. Disability was defined as difficulty with any one of five activities of daily living. The largest differences in DFLE for both men and women were found for housing tenure. Women aged 75 years living in owned or mortgaged property could expect to live 1 year extra without disability compared with those living in rented accommodation, while for men the difference was almost 1.5 years. The effect of socio-economic advantage on disability-free and total life expectancies appeared to be larger for men than women. In women, socio-economic advantage had more effect on DFLE than total life expectancy for all indicators considered, thus the socio-economically advantaged experienced a compression of disability.

Socioeconomic factors associated with the onset of disability in older age: a longitudinal study of people aged 75 years and over.

Although the association between socioeconomic status and mortality is well documented, there is less work focusing on the association with morbidity in older people. This is partly due to the difficulties of measuring socioeconomic status at older ages. The work that does exist tends to use cross-sectional data and objective measures of socioeconomic status such as education, social class or income. However, these standard measures may be less relevant for older people. In this study, we explore the association between socioeconomic status and disability in older people using a range of individual, household and area level indicators of socioeconomic status, including a subjective measure of adequacy of income. We use cross-sectional data of 1470 participants aged 75 years or over on 31/12/1987 and registered with a UK primary care practice. Of these 719 participants with no disability at baseline were followed up until 2003 with measurements at up to seven time points to determine onset of disability. Disability was defined as difficulty with any one of five activities of daily living. In cross-sectional multivariate analysis, age, housing tenure, living status and a subjective measure of income adequacy were associated with prevalence of disability. In longitudinal analyses, self-perceived adequacy of income showed the strongest association with onset of disability; with those reporting difficulties managing having a median age of onset 80.5 years, 7 years younger than those who felt their income was adequate (median age 87.8 years). The prospective association between self-perceived adequacy of income and onset of disability decreased with age. This subjective measure of income adequacy may signify difficulties in budgeting, but could also capture differences in objective indicators of status not recorded in this study, such as wealth. Further work is needed to explore what causes older people to experience difficulty in managing their money and to understand the mechanisms behind its impact on their physical health.

Diseases and impairments as risk factors for onset of disability in the older population in England and Wales: findings from the Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study.

BACKGROUND: This paper reports the association between self-reported diseases and impairments and 2-year onset of disability in a prospective study of people aged 65 years or older in five urban and rural centers in England and Wales (Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study; MRC-CFAS). METHODS: We initially reviewed risk factors for onset of disability in 35 prospective studies of functional decline in older people published in 1998-2001. In the present study, disability was defined as requiring help from another person at least several times a week and was assessed by dependency in activities of daily living. Polytomous and bivariate logistic regression models were fitted for onset of disability and mortality among those nondisabled at baseline (n=7913), adjusting for age, sex, and sociodemography. RESULTS: Among prevalent conditions, arthritis (population-attributable risk 11.4%) and cognitive impairment indicated by a Mini-Mental State Examination score of

Standard of living in the retirement survey: a predictor of six-year functional limitation onset and mortality in women, but not in men from ages 55 - 69 years.

PURPOSE: To investigate the predictive validity for health decline of a standard of living, a measure that combines basic necessities and consumer durables. METHOD: A nationally representative sample of those aged 55-69 years was interviewed at home in the Great Britain Retirement and Retirement Plans Survey, (1988; n=3,541). In 1994, 2,247 were re-interviewed, response rate being 70% of survivors. Relationships between socioeconomic status and health decline were investigated using polytomous logistic regression modelling. The outcomes were onset of functional limitation and mortality. RESULTS: Standard of living was an independent predictor of 6-year functional limitation onset (Odds Ratio compared to good standard of living 2.2; 95% Confidence Interval 1.3-3.8) and mortality (OR=4.6; 95% CI 2.3-8.9) in women, with age, household type, educational qualifications and social class taken into account. However, in men, weaker associations were largely accounted for by differences in education and social class (adjusted OR for functional limitation onset 1.0; 95% CI 0.5-1.9; adjusted OR for mortality 1.4; 95% CI 0.6-2.9). A combined indicator of housing tenure and property value was also an independent predictor of functional limitation onset in women. CONCLUSIONS: Poor standard of living identifies women but not men at risk of health decline who are missed by social class and educational level. Measures of current home-based material resources are a useful addition to minimum datasets for monitoring health inequalities.

The association of diet and other lifestyle factors with the onset of overactive bladder: a longitudinal study in men.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate associations between diet and non-dietary lifestyle factors and the onset of overactive bladder (OAB) in men. SUBJECTS: Random sample of community-dwelling men aged 40 years plus. DESIGN AND METHODS: Baseline data on urinary symptoms and diet were collected from 5454 men using a postal questionnaire and a food-frequency questionnaire. Follow-up data on urinary symptoms were collected from 4887 men in a postal survey one year later. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate diet and lifestyle factors associated with onset of OAB in the men without OAB at baseline. RESULTS: There was a highly significant negative association between beer intake at baseline and subsequent OAB onset (P=0.001), with reduced risk at all levels of intake compared with those who seldom/never drank beer. Adjustment for total alcohol intake (g ethanol day(-1)) reduced the significance of the association (P=0.02). None of the food groups studied was associated with OAB onset, with the possible exception of potatoes (P=0.05), which showed an increased risk of onset at the highest level of consumption. Physical activity, smoking and obesity were not significantly associated. CONCLUSIONS: While most diet and lifestyle factors were not associated with OAB onset, the evidence from this prospective longitudinal study suggests that beer may have a protective role in the development of OAB. This could be due to a non-alcoholic ingredient as well as the alcohol content.

Nutrient composition of the diet and the development of overactive bladder: a longitudinal study in women.

AIMS: Evidence for an association between diet and the symptom syndrome overactive bladder (OAB) would be valuable in understanding its aetiology. The present study investigates prospectively the association between the nutrient composition of the diet and the onset of OAB. METHODS: A random sample of community dwelling women aged 40 years or over was studied. Baseline data on urinary symptoms and diet were collected from 6,371 women using a postal questionnaire and food frequency questionnaire. Follow-up data on urinary symptoms were collected from 5,816 of the women in a postal survey 1 year later. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association of diet (daily intakes of energy, macro and micronutrients) with 1 year incidence of OAB. RESULTS: There was evidence that three nutrients may be associated with OAB onset. Higher intakes of vitamin D (P = 0.008), protein (P = 0.03), and potassium (P = 0.05) were significantly associated with decreased risks of onset. Although overall the associations with vitamin B6 and niacin were not significant (P = 0.08 and P = 0.13), there was some evidence of a decreased risk of onset with higher intakes. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this prospective study suggest possible aetiological associations between certain nutrients and OAB onset. The findings need confirmation and possible mechanisms to explain these associations need further investigation.

Improving uptake of influenza vaccination among older people: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The uptake of influenza vaccination among older people is suboptimal. Contact with a doctor or nurse is associated with older people deciding to accept influenza vaccination. AIM: To compare different forms of approach in improving uptake of influenza vaccination among patients aged 75 years and over in primary care. DESIGN OF STUDY: Randomised controlled trial. SETTING: One large rural general practice serving the town and surrounding area of Melton Mowbray, Leicestershire. METHOD: All 2,052 patients aged 75 years and over, registered with the practice and not living in nursing/residential homes or sheltered accommodation, were included in the study. One-third of patients were randomised to receive an offer of influenza vaccination as part of an over-75 health check administered by a practice nurse in the patient's home, and two-thirds of patients were randomised to receive a personal letter of invitation to attend an influenza vaccination clinic held at the surgery. The main outcome measure was uptake of influenza vaccination. RESULTS: Six hundred and eighty patients were randomised to the health check arm of the trial and 1,372 were randomised to receive a personal letter. Of those randomised to the health check arm, 468 received the health check from the nurse. Overall, the difference in influenza vaccination uptake was 6.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.2% to 10.4%) with 67.9% (n = 932) of those who were sent a personal letter actually receiving the vaccine, compared with 74.3% (n = 505) of those offered a combined health check and influenza vaccination (P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Combining home-based over- 75 health checks with influenza vaccination can improve uptake among older patients. However this intervention is likely to be costly and its effect on influenza vaccination rates is modest. The difference in uptake is greater among those who do not routinely comeforwardfor vaccination and a more viable option may be to target these patients.

Evaluating a mental health assessment for older people with depressive symptoms in general practice: a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of evidence on the most effective primary care management of older people with minor depression. AIM: To evaluate a follow-up assessment by the community mental health team (CMHT) for older people with depressive symptoms identified by practice nurses at a health check for people over the age of 75 years. DESIGN OF STUDY: A pragmatic randomised controlled trial. SETTING: A single large general practice in Leicestershire. METHOD: Patients receiving a health check administered by a practice nurse and scoring 5 or more on the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS15) were randomised to either follow-up by the CMHT or routine general practitioner (GP) care. The GDS15 score was measured at the subsequent health check 18 months later. RESULTS: Forty-seven patients were randomised to CMHT assessment and 46 to routine GP care. Uptake of the intervention was 72% (n = 34). At the follow-up health check a greater proportion of the control group had improved GDS15 scores (P = 0.08). Following assessment, the CMHT recommended their further involvement in the care of 12 patients and this was authorised by patients' GPs in six cases. CONCLUSIONS: A follow-up mental health assessment by a member of the local CMHT was not effective in improving outcomes for mildly depressed older people. Other than random error possible reasons for this include the length of follow-up and a failure to meet raised expectations among the intervention group. If complex referral procedures do not improve outcomes for this group, then specialist community services should play a more prominent part in the training of practice staff to care for their depressed older patients.