An Absorbing Markov Chain Model to Predict Dairy Cow Calving Time.

Abnormal behavioral changes in the regular daily mobility routine of a pregnant dairy cow can be an indicator or early sign to recognize when a calving event is imminent. Image processing technology and statistical approaches can be effectively used to achieve a more accurate result in predicting the time of calving. We hypothesize that data collected using a 360-degree camera to monitor cows before and during calving can be used to establish the daily activities of individual pregnant cows and to detect changes in their routine. In this study, we develop an augmented Markov chain model to predict calving time and better understand associated behavior. The objective of this study is to determine the feasibility of this calving time prediction system by adapting a simple Markov model for use on a typical dairy cow dataset. This augmented absorbing Markov chain model is based on a behavior embedded transient Markov chain model for characterizing cow behavior patterns during the 48 h before calving and to predict the expected time of calving. In developing the model, we started with an embedded four-state Markov chain model, and then augmented that model by adding calving as both a transient state, and an absorbing state. Then, using this model, we derive (1) the probability of calving at 2 h intervals after a reference point, and (2) the expected time of calving, using their motions between the different transient states. Finally, we present some experimental results for the performance of this model on the dairy farm compared with other machine learning techniques, showing that the proposed method is promising.

Activity-Integrated Hidden Markov Model to Predict Calving Time.

Accurately predicting when calving will occur can provide great value in managing a dairy farm since it provides personnel with the ability to determine whether assistance is necessary. Not providing such assistance when necessary could prolong the calving process, negatively affecting the health of both mother cow and calf. Such prolongation could lead to multiple illnesses. Calving is one of the most critical situations for cows during the production cycle. A precise video-monitoring system for cows can provide early detection of difficulties or health problems, and facilitates timely and appropriate human intervention. In this paper, we propose an integrated approach for predicting when calving will occur by combining behavioral activities extracted from recorded video sequences with a Hidden Markov Model. Specifically, two sub-systems comprise our proposed system: (i) Behaviors extraction such as lying, standing, number of changing positions between lying down and standing up, and other significant activities, such as holding up the tail, and turning the head to the side; and, (ii) using an integrated Hidden Markov Model to predict when calving will occur. The experiments using our proposed system were conducted at a large dairy farm in Oita Prefecture in Japan. Experimental results show that the proposed method has promise in practical applications. In particular, we found that the high frequency of posture changes has played a central role in accurately predicting the time of calving.