The role of kidney dysfunction in COVID-19 and the influence of age.

COVID-19 is strongly influenced by age and comorbidities. Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent finding in COVID-19 patients and seems to be associated to mortality and severity. On the other hand, the role of kidney dysfunction in COVID-19 is still debated. We performed a retrospective study in a cohort of 174 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Italy from March 3rd to May 21st 2020, to investigate the role of kidney dysfunction on COVID-19 severity and mortality. Moreover, we examined in depth the relationship between kidney function, age, and progression of COVID-19, also using different equations to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). We performed logistic regressions, while a predictive analysis was made through a machine learning approach. AKI and death occurred respectively in 10.2% and 19.5%, in our population. The major risk factors for mortality in our cohort were age [adjusted HR, 6.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-21.4] and AKI [3.36 (1.44-7.87)], while, in these relationships, GFR at baseline mitigated the role of age. The occurrence of AKI was influenced by baseline kidney function, D-dimer, procalcitonin and hypertension. Our predictive analysis for AKI and mortality reached an accuracy of ≥ 94% and ≥ 91%, respectively. Our study scales down the role of kidney function impairment on hospital admission , especially in elderly patients. BIS-1 formula demonstrated a worse performance to predict the outcomes in COVID-19 patients when compared with MDRD and CKD-EPI.

Second outbreak of Trichinella pseudospiralis in Europe: clinical patterns, epidemiological investigation and identification of the etiological agent based on the western blot patterns of the patients' serum.

Trichinellosis is a zoonotic disease due to the ingestion of raw or undercooked meat from animals infected with the larvae of nematodes belonging to the genus Trichinella. In January-February 2015, an outbreak of trichinellosis occurred in Genoa, Northern Italy. The epidemiological link was traced back to a dinner served at an agritourism farm on 31 December 2014, where a majority of the 52 guests had consumed the 'beef' steak tartare. The source of infection was not traced; however, it was noted that the amount of beef purchased officially for providing at the dinner did not correspond with that served, suggesting that meat of a different origin had been added to the beef to prepare the steak tartare. Clinical and laboratory data of 30 individuals out of the 52 (57.7%), of which four were hospitalized, were consistent with that of the case definition of trichinellosis. Western blot patterns of the sera from patients with confirmed trichinellosis were similar to the diagnostic pattern identified for the reference sera of Trichinella pseudospiralis but different from those of the control sera tested for patients infected with Trichinella spiralis and Trichinella britovi. Identification of T. pseudospiralis as the aetiological agent responsible for the outbreak of trichinellosis using an indirect tool represents an advancement in the epidemiological investigation of this zoonotic disease.

Tocilizumab and steroid treatment in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can lead to respiratory failure due to severe immune response. Treatment targeting this immune response might be beneficial but there is limited evidence on its efficacy. The aim of this study was to determine if early treatment of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia with tocilizumab and/or steroids was associated with better outcome. METHODS: This observational single-center study included patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who were not intubated and received either standard of care (SOC, controls) or SOC plus early (within 3 days from hospital admission) anti-inflammatory treatment. SOC consisted of hydroxychloroquine 400mg bid plus, in those admitted before March 24th, also darunavir/ritonavir. Anti-inflammatory treatment consisted of either tocilizumab (8mg/kg intravenously or 162mg subcutaneously) or methylprednisolone 1 mg/kg for 5 days or both. Failure was defined as intubation or death, and the endpoints were failure-free survival (primary endpoint) and overall survival (secondary) at day 30. Difference between the groups was estimated as Hazard Ratio by a propensity score weighted Cox regression analysis (HROW). RESULTS: Overall, 196 adults were included in the analyses. They were mainly male (67.4%), with comorbidities (78.1%) and severe COVID-19 pneumonia (83.7%). Median age was 67.9 years (range, 30-100) and median PaO2/FiO2 200 mmHg (IQR 133-289). Among them, 130 received early anti-inflammatory treatment with: tocilizumab (n = 29, 22.3%), methylprednisolone (n = 45, 34.6%), or both (n = 56, 43.1%). The adjusted failure-free survival among tocilizumab/methylprednisolone/SOC treated patients vs. SOC was 80.8% (95%CI, 72.8-86.7) vs. 64.1% (95%CI, 51.3-74.0), HROW 0.48, 95%CI, 0.23-0.99; p = 0.049. The overall survival among tocilizumab/methylprednisolone/SOC patients vs. SOC was 85.9% (95%CI, 80.7-92.6) vs. 71.9% (95%CI, 46-73), HROW 0.41, 95%CI: 0.19-0.89, p = 0.025. CONCLUSION: Early adjunctive treatment with tocilizumab, methylprednisolone or both may improve outcomes in non-intubated patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Durability of first-line regimens including integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs): data from a real-life setting.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the durability of three integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs) and two NRTIs in ART-naive individuals. METHODS: The study design was observational. Patients were HIV-positive, ART-naive subjects starting raltegravir, elvitegravir/cobicistat or dolutegravir with two NRTIs. The primary endpoint was time to treatment failure, i.e. occurrence of virological failure (first of two consecutive plasma HIV RNAs ≥200 copies/mL after 24 weeks) or INSTI discontinuation for any reason apart from simplification. Secondary endpoints were INSTI discontinuation due to toxicity/intolerance and CD4 count response. Survival analysis was done using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression. RESULTS: Two thousand and sixteen patients were included: 310 (15.4%) started raltegravir-based regimens, 994 (49.3%) started dolutegravir-based regimens and 712 (35.3%) started elvitegravir/cobicistat-based regimens. Over a median of 11 months, 167 patients experienced treatment failure; the 1 year probability of treatment failure was 6.5% for raltegravir, 5.4% for dolutegravir and 6.7% for elvitegravir/cobicistat (P = 0.001). Sixty-eight patients (3.4%) discontinued INSTIs owing to toxicity/intolerance. By multivariable analysis, patients starting raltegravir had a 2.03-fold (95% CI = 1.2-3.2) higher risk and patients on elvitegravir/cobicistat a 1.88-fold (95% CI = 1.2-2.9) higher risk of treatment failure versus dolutegravir; there was no difference in risk of discontinuation due to toxicity/intolerance when comparing dolutegravir and raltegravir and marginal evidence for a difference when comparing elvitegravir/cobicistat and dolutegravir (adjusted relative hazard = 1.94 for elvitegravir/cobicistat versus dolutegravir, 95% CI = 1.00-3.76, P = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In our real-life setting, INSTI-based regimens showed high potency and durability. Among regimens currently recommended in Europe, those including dolutegravir are associated with a lower risk of treatment failure.

Role of HCV-RNA decay and IP-10 levels after 48 hours of standard HCV therapy as predictors of rapid virological response.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Rapid virological response (RVR) is a critical end-point in the era of the new direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA). The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value in achieving RVR of HCV-RNA load and IP10 after 48 hours of standard anti HCV therapy. METHODS: HCV mono-infected and HIV/HCV co-infected patients naives to interferon were included. Demographic data, immune-virological HIV-related condition and HCV disease status were recorded before starting treatment. HCV-RNA and IP10 concentrations were also measured 48 hours after first interferon dose. Univariate model, logistic regression and ROC curve were performed for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Thirty-two patients were enrolled (mean age 49.2 ± 5.6 years): all were treated with pegylated-interferon and ribavirin. Nineteen (59.3%) were HIV/HCV co-infected patients. RVR was reached in 10 patients (31.2%). A decline of more than two log of HCV-RNA after 48 hours of therapy was associated with RVR (P=0.004). A trend was observed between increased IP10 levels at 48 hours and RVR (P=0.08). In a multivariable model only HCV-RNA at 48 hours was associated with RVR (P=0.011). ROC curve analysis for both HCV-RNA at 48 hours and IP-10 at 48 hours showed an area under the curve of 0.87 (95%CI: 0.74-1; P=0.001) with specificity of 72.2% and sensibility of 90%. CONCLUSION: In HCV treatment-naïve patients HCV-RNA and IP10 determination after 48 hours of interferon and ribavirin may be a worthwhile endpoint to predict RVR and select patients that may not require DAA addition.

IANUA: a regional project for the determination of costs in HIV-infected patients.

HIV treatment is based on combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) which has substantially improved survival, thus resulting in an increase in patient life expectancy as well as in the cost of HIV-related medical care. Therefore, several cost effectiveness studies were implemented worldwide, with one specifically in the Liguria region (Italy), to compare the annual economic expense in this area for HIV services, and the related improvement in patients' health. The IANUA project is intended to implement both cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis, therefore data related to clinical indicators and perceived health status were collected, the latter using a questionnaire based on the EQ-5D-3L. Information about the antiretroviral drugs and the relative quantity that a patient withdraws from the hospital pharmacy every month were extracted from the regional "F-file". All data gathered were stored in the Ligurian HIV Network, a web platform developed by the DIBRIS - Medinfo laboratory. More than eight hundred questionnaires were collected, and data will be elaborated by economists and psychologists. The first statistical elaborations showed that, as expected, costs increased as the number of therapeutic lines increased. Moreover, the average annual costs for patients whose last CD4 values were below 200 cells/mmc corresponded to the maximum expense recorded, however, the cost for patients with final CD4 counts above 500 cells/mmc was not, as expected, the lowest found. This can be explained by the fact that stabilized patients, who had CD4 values below 500 cells/mmc, did not need very expensive care, while patients with CD4 counts above 500 cells/mmc improved their health status thanks to cART.

Latent tuberculosis infection among a large cohort of medical students at a teaching hospital in Italy.

The surveillance of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in both healthcare workers and healthcare students is considered fundamental for tuberculosis (TB) prevention. The aim of the present study was to estimate LTBI prevalence and evaluate potential risk-factors associated with this condition in a large cohort of medical students in Italy. In a cross-sectional study, performed between March and December 2012, 1511 eligible subjects attending the Medical School of the University of Genoa, trained at the IRCCS San Martino-IST Teaching Hospital of Genoa, were actively called to undergo the tuberculin skin test (TST). All the TST positive cases were confirmed with an interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA). A standardized questionnaire was collected for multivariate risk analysis. A total of 1302 (86.2%) students underwent TST testing and completed the questionnaire. Eleven subjects (0.8%) resulted TST positive and LTBI diagnosis was confirmed in 2 (0.1%) cases. Professional exposure to active TB patients (OR 21.7, 95% CI 2.9-160.2; P value 0.003) and previous BCG immunization (OR 28.3, 95% CI 3.0-265.1; P value 0.003) are independently associated with TST positivity. Despite the low prevalence of LTBI among Italian medical students, an occupational risk of TB infection still exists in countries with low circulation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

Quality of life of people living with HIV, preliminary results from IANUA (Investigation on Antiretroviral Therapy) study.

INTRODUCTION: The introduction of combined antiretroviral treatment (cART) has reduced HIV-associated morbidity and mortality, and changed the patients' perspective of life. As a result, Health Related Quality of Life (HRQOL) has become a crucial clinical issue. OBJECTIVE: Assessment of HRQOL in a sample of Italian patients from IANUA study. Investigate correlation between CD4 cell counts, viral load and changes in HRQOL. MATERIALS AND METHODS: EQ-5D-3L self-reported questionnaire has been used in the evaluation of HRQOL. It assesses five dimensions: "mobility," "self care," "usual activities," "pain/discomfort" and "anxiety/depression." Each dimension has three levels: no problems, some problems and extreme problems. In addition, it includes a Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) where one's own health "today" is rated from 0 "worst imaginable health" to 100 "best imaginable health." The respondents provide information on marital status, education, employment/unemployment, other treatments used in addition to HAART (1,2,3,4,5 or more) and number of hospitalizations due to HIV/AIDS. RESULTS: 684 patients completed the questionnaire: 231 females and 453 males. The mean age of the sample was 51 years (range 21-78). The mean VAS score was 69.9. 558 patients (81.5%) reported no problems in mobility. 642 patients (93.5%) had no problems in self care. 423 patients (61.8%) had no pain/discomfort while 219 had some problems. 326 patients (46.1%) had some problems in anxiety/depression. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis of self-reported questionnaires indicates that HRQOL in our sample group is not deeply affected by HIV/AIDS. The dimensions that are affected in the least are "mobility" and "self care" while the major problem is "anxiety/depression" with half of the sample reporting moderate or high level.

Durability of lopinavir/ritonavir monotherapy in individuals with viral load ≤50 copies/ml in an observational setting.

BACKGROUND: The main objective is to evaluate the efficacy and durability of lopinavir-ritonavir monotherapy (LPV/r-MT) in virologically controlled HIV-positive individuals switching from combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: Criteria to be included in this observational study were to have initiated for the first time LPV/r-MT after ≥2 consecutive HIV RNA≤50 copies/ml achieved on a ≥3-drug-including regimen. The main end points were time to virological rebound (VR; defined in two ways: time of first of two consecutive viral load [VL]>50 and >200 copies/ml), time to discontinuation/intensification and time to experience either a single VL>200 copies/ml or discontinuation/intensification (treatment failure [TF]). Individuals' follow-up accrued from the date of starting LPV/r-MT to event or last available VL. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analyses were used. RESULTS: A total of 228 individuals were included: median age 46 years (IQR 40-50), 36% females, 36% intravenous drug users and 25% HCV-coinfected. Median CD4(+) T-cell count at nadir was 215 cell/mm(3) (IQR 116-336) and at baseline was 615 cell/mm(3) (IQR 436-768). By 36 months after switching to LPV/r-MT, the proportion of individuals with VR (confirmed VL>200 copies/ml) was 11% and with TF was 35%. In the multivariable Cox model the factors associated with a lower risk of TF was the duration of viral suppression <50 copies/ml prior to baseline (ARH=0.92; 95% CI 0.85, 0.99; P=0.024, per 6 months longer) and having LPV/r as part of last cART (ARH=0.45; 95% CI 0.21, 0.95; P=0.037). CONCLUSIONS: In daily clinical practice, we confirm a relatively safe approach of treatment simplification to LPV-MT in a selected population with long-lasting virological control.

Latent tuberculosis infection and associated risk factors among undergraduate healthcare students in Italy: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The screening of both healthcare workers and students attending teaching hospitals for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is recommended in hospitals of many countries with a low-incidence of TB, including Italy, as a fundamental tool of tuberculosis (TB) control programs. The aim of the study was to estimate the prevalence of LTBI and evaluate the main risk-factors associated with this condition in a cohort of healthcare Italian students. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study, performed between January and May 2012, 881 undergraduate students attending the Medical, Nursing, Pediatric Nursing and Midwifery Schools of the University of Genoa, trained at the IRCCS San Martino-IST Teaching Hospital of Genoa, were actively called to undergo the Tuberculin Skin Test (TST). All the TST positive cases were also tested with an Interferon-Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) to confirm the diagnosis of LTBI. A standardized questionnaire was collected for risk-assessment analysis. RESULTS: Seven hundred and thirty-three (83.2%) subjects underwent TST testing. The prevalence of TST positives was 1.4%, and in 4 (0.5%) out of 10 TST positive cases LTBI diagnosis was confirmed by IGRA. No difference in the prevalence of subjects who tested positive to TST emerged between pre-clinical (n = 138) and clinical (n = 595) students. No statistically significant association between TST positivity and age, gender, and BCG vaccination was observed. The main independent variable associated with TST positivity was to be born in a country with a high TB incidence (i.e., ≥20 cases per 100,000 population) (adjusted OR 102.80, 95% CI 18.09-584.04, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of LTBI among healthcare students resulted very low. The only significant association between TST positivity and potential risk factors was to be born in high TB incidence areas. In countries with a low incidence of TB, the screening programs of healthcare students before clinical training can be useful for the early identification and treatment of the sporadic cases of LTBI.

Role of serum free light chains in predicting HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma and Hodgkin's lymphoma and its correlation with antiretroviral therapy.

A nested case-control study was performed within the Italian cohort of naïve to antiretroviral human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) patients (ICONA) cohort to evaluate the role of serum free light chains (sFLC) in predicting non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) and Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) in HIV-infected individuals. Of 6513 participants, 86 patients developed lymphoma and 46 of these (NHL, 30; HL, 16) were included in this analysis having stored prediagnostic blood. A total of 46 serum case samples matched 1:1 to lymphoma-free serum control samples were assayed for κ and λ sFLC levels and compared by using conditional logistic regression. Because the polyclonal nature of free light chains (FLCs) was the focus of our study, we introduced the k + λ sum as the measurement of choice and as the primary variable studied. κ + λ sFLC values were significantly higher in patient with lymphoma than in controls, especially when considering samples stored 0-2-year period before the lymphoma diagnosis. In the multivariable analysis, the elevation of sFLC predicted the risk of lymphoma independently of CD4 count, (odd ratio of 16.85 for k + λ sFLC >2-fold upper normal limit (UNL) vs. normal value). A significant reduction in the risk of lymphoma (odd ratio of 0.07 in model with k + λ sFLC) was found in people with low sFLC and undetectable HIV viremia lasting more than 6 months. Our analysis indicates that an elevated polyclonal sFLC is a strong and sensitive predictor of the risk of developing lymphomas, and it is an easy to measure biomarker that merits consideration for introduction in routine clinical practice in people with HIV.

Determinants of access to experimental antiretroviral drugs in an Italian cohort of patients with HIV: a multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND: Identification of the determinants of access to investigational drugs is important to promote equity and scientific validity in clinical research. We aimed to analyze factors associated with the use of experimental antiretrovirals in Italy. METHODS: We studied participants in the Italian Cohort of Antiretroviral-Naive Patients (ICoNA). All patients 18 years or older who had started cART (≥ 3 drugs including at least two NRTI) after their enrolment and during 1997-2007 were included in this analysis. We performed a random effect logistic regression analysis to take into account clustering observations within clinical units. The outcome variable was the use of an experimental antiretroviral, defined as an antiretroviral started before commercial availability, in any episode of therapy initiation/change. Use of an experimental antiretroviral obtained through a clinical trial or an expanded access program (EAP) was also analyzed separately. RESULTS: A total of 9,441 episodes of therapy initiation/change were analyzed in 3,752 patients. 392 episodes (360 patients) involved an experimental antiretroviral. In multivariable analysis, factors associated with the overall use of experimental antiretrovirals were: number of experienced drugs (≥ 8 drugs versus "naive": adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 3.71) or failed antiretrovirals(3-4 drugs and ≥ 5 drugs versus 0-2 drugs: AOR = 1.42 and 2.38 respectively); calendar year (AOR = 0.80 per year) and plasma HIV-RNA copies/ml at therapy change (≥ 4 log versus < 2 log: AOR = 1.55). The probability of taking an experimental antiretroviral through a trial was significantly lower for patients suffering from liver co-morbidity(AOR = 0.65) and for those who experienced 3-4 drugs (vs naive) (AOR = 0.55), while it increased for multi-treated patients(AOR = 2.60). The probability to start an experimental antiretroviral trough an EAP progressively increased with the increasing number of experienced and of failed drugs and also increased for patients with liver co-morbidity (AOR = 1.44; p = 0.053). and for male homosexuals (vs heterosexuals: AOR = 1.67). Variability of the random effect associated to clinical units was statistically significant (p < 0.001) although no association was found with specific characteristics of clinical unit examined. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with HIV infection in Italy, access to experimental antiretrovirals seems to be influenced mainly by exhaustion of treatment options and not by socio-demographic factors.

A case of secondary syphilis presenting as optic neuritis.

Neurosyphilis is still a significant medical problem in developing countries and syphilitic ocular manifestations are often not diagnosed due to the lack of typical characteristics. We describe the case of a 59-year-old homosexual man with a 1-month history of decreased vision acuity in his left eye who was diagnosed with neurosyphilis and received treatment with intravenous penicillin G (16 million units in divided daily doses), with great improvement of visual acuity and CSF examination findings. The interest of this case is not only represented by the unusually early ocular involvement, but also by the rapid evolution of the disease into the secondary stage in a man who had had one at-risk homosexual relationship only 3 months before the onset symptoms. We also support the view that the presence of ocular involvement in syphilitic patients is suggestive of involvement of the CNS and should be considered synonymous with neurosyphilis.

Highly active antiretroviral therapy reduces the age-associated risk of dementia in a cohort of older HIV-1-infected patients.

Historically, older patients have shown a higher risk of HIV-1-associated dementia (HIVD). The objective of this study was to evaluate the association of aging with HIVD and minor cognitive motor disorders (MCMDs) during the late-highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era and to analyze characteristics, predictive factors, and survival of older HIV-1-infected individuals affected by these disorders. A nested longitudinal study was designed for a cohort of HIV-1-infected individuals with neurological diseases. Multiple logistic regression and Cox regression for survival were employed. From 2000 to 2003, 195 patients with HIVD (53%) or MCMD (47%) were enrolled. The cumulative prevalence of these two disorders was 21%, with an increasing rate for calendar year (p < 0.001). Previous antiretroviral exposure occurred in 46% of patients. Mean CD4(+) cell count and plasma HIV-1 RNA were 144 cells/microl and 4.5 log10 copies/ml, respectively. The mean age was 44 years (SD, 9.9), with 35% of patients aged 20-39 years (I), 45% aged 40-49 years (II), and 20% aged >/=50 years (III). Among drug-naive patients, the prevalence of HIVD progressively increased in older subjects: 7.2% (I), 15.3% (II), and 27.3% (III) (p < 0.001), whereas no significant increase in HIVD with older age was observed in drug-treated subjects. Older age was independently associated with an increased risk of HIVD (odds ratio, 6.44; 95% confidence interval, 2.82-14.69) in naive but not in experienced individuals, but had no significant effect on survival. No significant effect of age was observed for MCMD. We conclude that in our cohort, HAART seems to alter the relationship between aging and HIVD, conferring a neuroprotective effect to older patients. These results may have significant implications for the clinical management of the older HIV population.

[HIV and related infections in Italian penal institutions: epidemiological and health organization note]. / HIV e infezioni correlate negli Istituti Penitenziari Italiani: note di epidemiologia e di organizzazione sanitaria.

HIV and other infections represent an important health problem in Italian jails. In particular, HIV prevalence is high, due to the characteristics of the prison population, which is constituted by a large proportion of injecting drug users and foreigners. In addition, data from other countries suggest that risky behaviour are not uncommon during imprisonment, and transmission of HIV and other infection in this setting may also occur. Data from surveys conducted by the Penitentiary Authority in Italian jails show a decline of HIV seroprevalence from 9.7% in 1990 to 2.6% in 2001. However, these data are largely incomplete and do not account for possible biases due to self-selection of inmates toward HIV serological testing or to variations in the access to screening activities. More accurate data, possibly obtained through anonymous unlinked surveys, are needed in order to better plan health services and preventive measures.

[Survival, progression to AIDS and immunosuppression in HIV-positive individuals before and after the introduction of the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)]. / Sopravvivenza, progressione in AIDS e livello di immunosoppresione in persone HIV-positive prima e dopo l'introduzione della terapia antiretrovirale di combinazione con tre o più farmaci (HAART).

We evaluated the changes in the progression to death and AIDS and in the mean level of CD4 lymphocytes by calendar period in HIV-positive individuals before and after the introduction of HAART. Through data collected in a prospective cohort study (Italian Seroconversion Study) of 1899 HIV-infected persons with well estimated date of seroconversion, considered as time-zero of analysis, we calculated Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox models, allowing for staggered entries, to estimate the cumulative probability of survival and hazard-ratios (HR) for death and for AIDS by calendar period (1980-1996: pre-HAART era, 1997-1998: first HAART era, and 1999-2001: second HAART era), age at seroconversion, gender, and exposure category. During 17251 person-years, 660 HIV-positive patients developed AIDS and 510 died. Before 1997, the cumulative probability of survival, at twelve years from seroconversion, was 51.0%. In the period 1997-1998 the probability was 77.3% and in the period 1999-2001 it further increased at 91.2%. In the period 1980-1996 only older age at seroconversion was associated with more rapid progression to death. In the period 1987-2001 individuals infected through injecting drug use had a reduced increase of survival compared to those infected through sexual contact. Similar results were obtained for progression to AIDS. Finally we estimated an improved level of immunesuppression in the period 1987-2001. In fact, while in the period 1980-1996 we estimated a decrease of the CD4 lymphocites of -54.8 cells/mm3 (95% CI: -52.0; -57.6) per year; after 1996, we estimated an increase of CD4 of +39.6 (95% CI +34.1; +45.1)per year. This study provides strong evidence that the efficacy of the HAART estimated in the controlled clinical trials has resulted in a real reduction at the population level of morbidity and mortality.