Carotid Plaque Inflammation Imaged by PET and Prediction of Recurrent Stroke at 5 Years.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To determine whether carotid plaque inflammation identified by 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18FDG)-PET is associated with late (5-year) recurrent stroke. METHODS: We did an individual-participant data pooled analysis of 3 prospective studies with near-identical study methods. Eligible patients had recent nonsevere (modified Rankin Scale score ≤3) ischemic stroke/TIA and ipsilateral carotid stenosis (50%-99%). Participants underwent carotid 18FDG-PET/CT angiography ≤14 days after recruitment. 18FDG uptake was expressed as maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) in the axial single hottest slice of symptomatic plaque. We calculated the previously validated Symptomatic Carotid Atheroma Inflammation Lumen-Stenosis (SCAIL) score, which incorporates a measure of stenosis severity and 18FDG uptake. The primary outcome was 5-year recurrent ipsilateral ischemic stroke after PET imaging. RESULTS: Of 183 eligible patients, 181 patients completed follow-up (98.9%). The median duration of follow-up was 4.9 years (interquartile range 3.3-6.4 years, cumulative follow-up period 901.8 patient-years). After PET imaging, 17 patients had a recurrent ipsilateral ischemic strokes at 5 years (recurrence rate 9.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.6%-14.6%). Baseline plaque SUVmax independently predicted 5-year ipsilateral recurrent stroke after adjustment for age, sex, carotid revascularization, stenosis severity, NIH Stroke Scale score, and diabetes mellitus (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.98, 95% CI 1.10-3.56, p = 0.02 per 1-g/mL increase in SUVmax). On multivariable Cox regression, SCAIL score predicted 5-year ipsilateral stroke (adjusted HR 2.73 per 1-point increase, 95% CI 1.52-4.90, p = 0.001). DISCUSSION: Plaque inflammation-related 18FDG uptake improved identification of 5-year recurrent ipsilateral ischemic stroke. Addition of plaque inflammation to current selection strategies may target patients most likely to have late and early benefit from carotid revascularization. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class I evidence that in individuals with recent ischemic stroke/TIA and ipsilateral carotid stenosis, carotid plaque inflammation-related 18FDG uptake on PET/CT angiography was associated with 5-year recurrent ipsilateral stroke.

Cohort profile: BIOVASC-late, a prospective multicentred study of imaging and blood biomarkers of carotid plaque inflammation and risk of late vascular recurrence after non-severe stroke in Ireland.

PURPOSE: Inflammation is important in stroke. Anti-inflammatory therapy reduces vascular events in coronary patients. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (18F-FDG-PET) identifies plaque inflammation-related metabolism. However, long-term prospective cohort studies investigating the association between carotid plaque inflammation, identified on 18F-FDG PET and the risk of recurrent vascular events, have not yet been undertaken in patients with stroke. PARTICIPANTS: The Biomarkers Imaging Vulnerable Atherosclerosis in Symptomatic Carotid disease (BIOVASC) study and Dublin Carotid Atherosclerosis Study (DUCASS) are two prospective multicentred observational cohort studies, employing near-identical methodologies, which recruited 285 patients between 2008 and 2016 with non-severe stroke/transient ischaemic attack and ipsilateral carotid stenosis (50%-99%). Patients underwent coregistered carotid 18F-FDG PET/CT angiography and phlebotomy for measurement of inflammatory cytokines. Plaque 18F-FDG-uptake is expressed as maximum standardised uptake value (SUVmax) and tissue-to-background ratio. The BIOVASC-Late study is a follow-up study (median 7 years) of patients recruited to the DUCASS/BIOVASC cohorts. FINDINGS TO DATE: We have reported that 18F-FDG-uptake in atherosclerotic plaques of patients with symptomatic carotid stenosis predicts early recurrent stroke, independent of luminal narrowing. The incorporation of 18F-FDG plaque uptake into a clinical prediction model also improves discrimination of early recurrent stroke, when compared with risk stratification by luminal stenosis alone. However, the relationship between 18F-FDG-uptake and late vascular events has not been investigated to date. FUTURE PLANS: The primary aim of BIOVASC-Late is to investigate the association between SUVmax in symptomatic 'culprit' carotid plaque (as a marker of systemic inflammatory atherosclerosis) and the composite outcome of any late major vascular event (recurrent ischaemic stroke, coronary event or vascular death). Secondary aims are to investigate associations between: (1) SUVmax in symptomatic plaque, and individual vascular endpoints (2) SUVmax in asymptomatic contralateral carotid plaque and SUVmax in ipsilateral symptomatic plaque (3) SUVmax in asymptomatic carotid plaque and major vascular events (4) inflammatory cytokines and vascular events.