Global mismatches between threat mapping research effort and the potential of threat abatement actions to reduce extinction risk.

Threat mapping is a necessary tool for identifying and abating direct threats to species in the ongoing extinction crisis. There are known gaps in the threat mapping literature for particular threats and geographic locations, and it remains unclear if the distribution of research effort is appropriately targeted relative to conservation need. We aimed to determine the drivers of threat mapping research effort and to quantify gaps that, if filled, could inform actions with the highest potential to reduce species' extinction risk. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model to analyze research effort as a function of threat abatement potential (quantified as the potential reduction in species extinction risk from abating threats), species richness, land area, and human pressure. The model showed that threat mapping research effort increased by 1.1 to 1.2 times per standardized unit change in threat abatement potential. However, species richness and land area were stronger predictors of research effort overall. The greatest areas of mismatch between research effort and threat abatement potential, receiving disproportionately low research effort, were related to the threats to species of agriculture, aquaculture, and biological resource use across the tropical regions of the Americas, Asia, and Madagascar. Conversely, the threat of linear infrastructure (e.g., roads and rails) across regions, the threat of biological resource use (e.g., hunting or collection) in sub-Saharan Africa, and overall threats in North America and Europe all received disproportionately high research effort. We discuss the range of methodological and sociopolitical factors that may be behind the overall trends and specific areas of mismatch we found. We urge a stronger emphasis on targeting research effort toward those threats and geographic locations where threat abatement activities could make the greatest contribution to reducing global species extinction risk.

Disparidades mundiales entre la investigación sobre el esfuerzo de mapeo de amenazas y la potencial amenaza de las acciones de abatimiento para reducir el riesgo de extinción Resumen El mapeo de amenazas es una herramienta necesaria para identificar y abatir las amenazas directas para las especies en la actual crisis de extinción. Existen vacíos conocidos en la literatura del mapeo de amenazas para amenazas particulares y ubicaciones geográficas, y todavía no está claro si la distribución de los esfuerzos de investigación está enfocada de forma apropiada en relación con las necesidades de conservación. Buscamos determinar los factores que influyen sobre el esfuerzo de investigación del mapeo de amenazas y cuantificar los vacíos que, si se cierran, podrían guiar las acciones con el potencial más alto para reducir el riesgo de extinción de las especies. Usamos un modelo binomial lineal negativo generalizado para analizar el esfuerzo de investigación como función del potencial de abatimiento de amenazas (cuantificado como la reducción potencial en el riesgo de extinción a partir del abatimiento de amenazas), la riqueza de especies, el área del suelo y la presión humana. El modelo mostró que el esfuerzo de investigación del mapeo de amenazas incrementó entre 1.1 y 1.2 veces por unidad estandarizada de cambio en el potencial de abatimiento de amenazas. Sin embargo, la riqueza de especies y el área del suelo fueron pronósticos más sólidos del esfuerzo de investigación generalizado. Las principales áreas de disparidad entre el esfuerzo de investigación y el potencial de abatimiento de amenazas, las cuales reciben un esfuerzo de investigación desproporcionalmente bajo, estuvieron relacionadas con las amenazas para las especies de agricultura, acuacultura y recursos biológicos que se usan en las regiones tropicales de América, Asia y Madagascar. Al contrario, la amenaza de la infraestructura lineal (p. ej.: carreteras y vías férreas) en las regiones, la amenaza del uso de recursos biológicos (p. ej.: caza o recolección) en la África subsahariana y las amenazas generales en América del Norte y en Europa recibieron un esfuerzo de investigación desproporcionalmente alto. Abordamos el rango de factores metodológicos y sociopolíticos que pueden estar detrás de las tendencias generales y las áreas específicas de disparidad que encontramos. Instamos a un mayor énfasis en el enfoque del esfuerzo de investigación hacia aquellas amenazas y ubicaciones geográficas en donde las actividades de abatimiento de amenazas podrían brindar una mayor contribución para reducir el riesgo mundial de extinción de especies.

Genetic diversity goals and targets have improved, but remain insufficient for clear implementation of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Genetic diversity among and within populations of all species is necessary for people and nature to survive and thrive in a changing world. Over the past three years, commitments for conserving genetic diversity have become more ambitious and specific under the Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD) draft post-2020 global biodiversity framework (GBF). This Perspective article comments on how goals and targets of the GBF have evolved, the improvements that are still needed, lessons learned from this process, and connections between goals and targets and the actions and reporting that will be needed to maintain, protect, manage and monitor genetic diversity. It is possible and necessary that the GBF strives to maintain genetic diversity within and among populations of all species, to restore genetic connectivity, and to develop national genetic conservation strategies, and to report on these using proposed, feasible indicators.

Quantifying and mapping species threat abatement opportunities to support national target setting.

The successful implementation of the Convention on Biological Diversity's post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework will rely on effective translation of targets from global to national level and increased engagement across diverse sectors of society. Species conservation targets require policy support measures that can be applied to a diversity of taxonomic groups, that link action targets to outcome goals, and that can be applied to both global and national data sets to account for national context, which the species threat abatement and restoration (STAR) metric does. To test the flexibility of STAR, we applied the metric to vascular plants listed on national red lists of Brazil, Norway, and South Africa. The STAR metric uses data on species' extinction risk, distributions, and threats, which we obtained from national red lists to quantify the contribution that threat abatement and habitat restoration activities could make to reducing species' extinction risk. Across all 3 countries, the greatest opportunity for reducing plant species' extinction risk was from abating threats from agricultural activities, which could reduce species' extinction risk by 54% in Norway, 36% in South Africa, and 29% in Brazil. Species extinction risk could be reduced by a further 21% in South Africa by abating threats from invasive species and by 21% in Brazil by abating threats from urban expansion. Even with different approaches to red-listing among countries, the STAR metric yielded informative results that identified where the greatest conservation gains could be made for species through threat-abatement and restoration activities. Quantifiably linking local taxonomic coverage and data collection to global processes with STAR would allow national target setting to align with global targets and enable state and nonstate actors to measure and report on their potential contributions to species conservation.

How do Snow Partridge (Lerwa lerwa) and Tibetan Snowcock (Tetraogallus tibetanus) coexist in sympatry under high-elevation conditions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau?

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) has the highest elevations of all biodiversity hotspots. Difficulties involved in fieldwork at high elevations cause challenges in researching mechanisms facilitating species coexistence. Herein, we investigated Snow Partridge (Lerwa lerwa) and Tibetan Snowcock (Tetraogallus tibetanus), the only two endemic Galliformes on the QTP, to understand species coexistence patterns and determine how they live in sympatry for the first time. We assembled occurrence data, estimated habitat suitability differences and the underlying factors between two species at different scales using ecological niche models. Niche overlap tests were used to investigate whether niche differences between these species allow for their coexistence. We found that elevation was the most important factor determining habitat suitability for both species. At the meso-scale, two species have similar ecological niches with their suitable habitats lying predominantly along ridge crests. However, ridge crests were more influential for habitat suitability by L. lerwa than for that of T. tibetanus because the latter species ranges further afield than ridge crests. Thus, differences in habitat suitability between these species lead to habitat partitioning, which allows stable coexistence. At the macro-scale, temperature and precipitation were major factors influencing habitat suitability differences between these species. Tetraogallus tibetanus extended into the hinterland of the QTP and occurred at higher elevations, where colder and drier alpine conditions are commonplace. Conversely, L. lerwa occurred along the southeastern margin of the QTP with a lower snow line, an area prone to rainy and humid habitats. Niche overlap analysis showed that habitat suitability differences between these species are not driven by niche differentiation. We concluded that the coexistence of these two pheasants under high-elevation conditions could be an adaption to different alpine conditions.

GalliForm, a database of Galliformes occurrence records from the Indo-Malay and Palaearctic, 1800-2008.

Historical as well as current species distribution data are needed to track changes in biodiversity. Species distribution data are found in a variety of sources, each of which has its own distinct bias toward certain taxa, time periods or places. We present GalliForm, a database that comprises 186687 galliform occurrence records linked to 118907 localities in Europe and Asia. Records were derived from museums, peer-reviewed and grey literature, unpublished field notes, diaries and correspondence, banding records, atlas records and online birding trip reports. We describe data collection processes, georeferencing methods and quality-control procedures. This database has underpinned several peer-reviewed studies, investigating spatial and temporal bias in biodiversity data, species' geographic range changes and local extirpation patterns. In our rapidly changing world, an understanding of long-term change in species' distributions is key to predicting future impacts of threatening processes such as land use change, over-exploitation of species and climate change. This database, its historical aspect in particular, provides a valuable source of information for further studies in macroecology and biodiversity conservation.

Ex situ management as insurance against extinction of mammalian megafauna in an uncertain world.

The persistence of endangered species may depend on the fate of a very small number of individual animals. In situ conservation alone may sometimes be insufficient. In these instances, the International Union for Conservation of Nature provides guidelines for ex situ conservation and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) indicates how ex situ management can support the CBD's objectives by providing insurance policies for species. The circumstances that justify its use are uncertain. To evaluate the current in situ extinction risk and ex situ management of 43 critically endangered species of mammalian megafauna, we used nonmetric multidimensional scaling and geopolitical variables related to governance, economics, and national policy within their extant ranges. We then fitted generalized additive models to assess the contribution of each variable to the ordination. Fifteen (almost one-third) of the world's terrestrial mammalian megafauna are not the subject of any ex situ management. Seventy-three percent of these taxa occur in areas characterized by political uncertainty, such as border zones or areas affected by armed conflicts, mainly in Africa and the Middle East. A further 23% of taxa in ex situ programs do not meet sustainability criteria for inbreeding avoidance. Strategic conservation planning, such as the One Plan approach, may improve ex situ management for these taxa. Given the escalating trend in threats afflicting megafauna, ex situ management should be considered more rigorously, particularly in politically unstable regions, to achieve CBD Target 12 (prevent extinction of threatened species).

Manejo Ex Situ como Protección contra la Extinción de la Megafauna de Mamíferos en un Mundo Incierto Resumen La persistencia de las especies en peligro puede depender del destino de un número muy pequeño de animales individuales. La conservación in situ por sí sola a veces puede ser insuficiente. Bajo estas instancias, la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza proporciona directrices para la conservación ex situ y la Convención sobre la Diversidad Biológica (CBD) indica cómo el manejo ex situ puede apoyar a lograr sus objetivos al proporcionar políticas de protección para las especies. Las circunstancias que justifican el uso del manejo ex situ son inciertas. Para evaluar el actual riesgo de extinción in situ y el manejo ex situ de 43 especies de megafauna de mamíferos en peligro crítico de extinción usamos un escalamiento multidimensional no métrico, así como variables geopolíticas relacionadas con el gobierno, la economía y las políticas nacionales dentro de la distribución actual de estas especies. Después ajustamos los modelos sumativos generalizados para evaluar la contribución de cada variable a la ordinación. Quince (casi un tercio) de los mamíferos terrestres pertenecientes a la megafauna no están sujetos a ningún tipo de manejo ex situ. El 73% de estos taxones ocurren en áreas conocidas por su incertidumbre política, como zonas fronterizas o áreas afectadas por conflictos armados, principalmente en África y en el Oriente Medio. Además, un 23% de los taxones que sí se encuentran en programas de conservación ex situ no cumplen con los criterios de sustentabilidad para evitar la endogamia. La planeación de la conservación estratégica, como la estrategia de One Plan, podría mejorar el manejo ex situ para estos taxones. Dada la tendencia creciente en las amenazas que afectan a la megafauna, el manejo ex situ debería considerarse de manera más rigurosa, particularmente en las regiones con inestabilidad política, para alcanzar el Objetivo 12 de la CBD (evitar la extinción de especies amenazadas).

Ecological time lags and the journey towards conservation success.

Global conservation targets to reverse biodiversity declines and halt species extinctions are not being met despite decades of conservation action. However, a lack of measurable change in biodiversity indicators towards these targets is not necessarily a sign that conservation has failed; instead, temporal lags in species' responses to conservation action could be masking our ability to observe progress towards conservation success. Here we present our perspective on the influence of ecological time lags on the assessment of conservation success and review the principles of time lags and their ecological drivers. We illustrate how a number of conceptual species may respond to change in a theoretical landscape and evaluate how these responses might influence our interpretation of conservation success. We then investigate a time lag in a real biodiversity indicator using empirical data and explore alternative approaches to understand the mechanisms that drive time lags. Our proposal for setting and evaluating conservation targets is to use milestones, or interim targets linked to specific ecological mechanisms at key points in time, to assess whether conservation actions are likely to be working. Accounting for ecological time lags in biodiversity targets and indicators will greatly improve the way that we evaluate conservation successes.

Using the Value of Information to improve conservation decision making.

Conservation decisions are challenging, not only because they often involve difficult conflicts among outcomes that people value, but because our understanding of the natural world and our effects on it is fraught with uncertainty. Value of Information (VoI) methods provide an approach for understanding and managing uncertainty from the standpoint of the decision maker. These methods are commonly used in other fields (e.g. economics, public health) and are increasingly used in biodiversity conservation. This decision-analytical approach can identify the best management alternative to select where the effectiveness of interventions is uncertain, and can help to decide when to act and when to delay action until after further research. We review the use of VoI in the environmental domain, reflect on the need for greater uptake of VoI, particularly for strategic conservation planning, and suggest promising areas for new research. We also suggest common reporting standards as a means of increasing the leverage of this powerful tool. The environmental science, ecology and biodiversity categories of the Web of Knowledge were searched using the terms 'Value of Information,' 'Expected Value of Perfect Information,' and the abbreviation 'EVPI.' Google Scholar was searched with the same terms, and additionally the terms decision and biology, biodiversity conservation, fish, or ecology. We identified 1225 papers from these searches. Included studies were limited to those that showed an application of VoI in biodiversity conservation rather than simply describing the method. All examples of use of VOI were summarised regarding the application of VoI, the management objectives, the uncertainties, the models used, how the objectives were measured, and the type of VoI. While the use of VoI appears to be on the increase in biodiversity conservation, the reporting of results is highly variable, which can make it difficult to understand the decision context and which uncertainties were considered. Moreover, it was unclear if, and how, the papers informed management and policy interventions, which is why we suggest a range of reporting standards that would aid the use of VoI. The use of VoI in conservation settings is at an early stage. There are opportunities for broader applications, not only for species-focussed management problems, but also for setting local or global research priorities for biodiversity conservation, making funding decisions, or designing or improving protected area networks and management. The long-term benefits of applying VoI methods to biodiversity conservation include a more structured and decision-focused allocation of resources to research.

Examining the relationship between local extinction risk and position in range.

Over half of globally threatened animal species have experienced rapid geographic range loss. Identifying the parts of species' distributions most vulnerable to local extinction would benefit conservation planning. However, previous studies give little consensus on whether ranges decline to the core or edge. We built on previous work by using empirical data to examine the position of recent local extinctions within species' geographic ranges, address range position as a continuum, and explore the influence of environmental factors. We aggregated point-locality data for 125 Galliform species from across the Palearctic and Indo-Malaya into equal-area half-degree grid cells and used a multispecies dynamic Bayesian occupancy model to estimate rates of local extinctions. Our model provides a novel approach to identify loss of populations from within species ranges. We investigated the relationship between extinction rates and distance from range edge by examining whether patterns were consistent across biogeographic realm and different categories of land use. In the Palearctic, local extinctions occurred closer to the range edge than range core in both unconverted and human-dominated landscapes. In Indo-Malaya, no pattern was found for unconverted landscapes, but in human-dominated landscapes extinctions tended to occur closer to the core than the edge. Our results suggest that local and regional factors override general spatial patterns of recent local extinction within species' ranges and highlight the difficulty of predicting the parts of a species' distribution most vulnerable to threat.

Uncertainty in identifying local extinctions: the distribution of missing data and its effects on biodiversity measures.

Identifying local extinctions is integral to estimating species richness and geographic range changes and informing extinction risk assessments. However, the species occurrence records underpinning these estimates are frequently compromised by a lack of recorded species absences making it impossible to distinguish between local extinction and lack of survey effort-for a rigorously compiled database of European and Asian Galliformes, approximately 40% of half-degree cells contain records from before but not after 1980. We investigate the distribution of these cells, finding differences between the Palaearctic (forests, low mean human influence index (HII), outside protected areas (PAs)) and Indo-Malaya (grassland, high mean HII, outside PAs). Such cells also occur more in less peaceful countries. We show that different interpretations of these cells can lead to large over/under-estimations of species richness and extent of occurrences, potentially misleading prioritization and extinction risk assessment schemes. To avoid mistakes, local extinctions inferred from sightings records need to account for the history of survey effort in a locality.

Philippine protected areas are not meeting the biodiversity coverage and management effectiveness requirements of Aichi Target 11.

Aichi Target 11 of the Convention on Biological Diversity urges, inter alia, that nations protect at least 17 % of their land, and that protection is effective and targets areas of importance for biodiversity. Five years before reporting on Aichi targets is due, we assessed the Philippines' current protected area system for biodiversity coverage, appropriateness of management regimes and capacity to deliver protection. Although protected estate already covers 11 % of the Philippines' land area, 64 % of its key biodiversity areas (KBAs) remain unprotected. Few protected areas have appropriate management and governance infrastructures, funding streams, management plans and capacity, and a serious mismatch exists between protected area land zonation regimes and conservation needs of key species. For the Philippines to meet the biodiversity coverage and management effectiveness elements of Aichi Target 11, protected area and KBA boundaries should be aligned, management systems reformed to pursue biodiversity-led targets and effective management capacity created.

Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.

Religious Relationships with the Environment in a Tibetan Rural Community: Interactions and Contrasts with Popular Notions of Indigenous Environmentalism.

Representations of Green Tibetans connected to Buddhism and indigenous wisdom have been deployed by a variety of actors and persist in popular consciousness. Through interviews, participatory mapping and observation, we explored how these ideas relate to people's notions about the natural environment in a rural community on the Eastern Tibetan plateau, in Sichuan Province, China. We found people to be orienting themselves towards the environment by means of three interlinked religious notions: (1) local gods and spirits in the landscape, which have become the focus of conservation efforts in the form of 'sacred natural sites;' (2) sin and karma related to killing animals and plants; (3) Buddhist moral precepts especially non-violence. We highlight the gaps between externally generated representations and local understandings, but also the dynamic, contested and plural nature of local relationships with the environment, which have been influenced and reshaped by capitalist development and commodification of natural resources, state environmental policies, and Buddhist modernist ideas.

The use of automated bioacoustic recorders to replace human wildlife surveys: an example using nightjars.

To be able to monitor and protect endangered species, we need accurate information on their numbers and where they live. Survey methods using automated bioacoustic recorders offer significant promise, especially for species whose behaviour or ecology reduces their detectability during traditional surveys, such as the European nightjar. In this study we examined the utility of automated bioacoustic recorders and the associated classification software as a way to survey for wildlife, using the nightjar as an example. We compared traditional human surveys with results obtained from bioacoustic recorders. When we compared these two methods using the recordings made at the same time as the human surveys, we found that recorders were better at detecting nightjars. However, in practice fieldworkers are likely to deploy recorders for extended periods to make best use of them. Our comparison of this practical approach with human surveys revealed that recorders were significantly better at detecting nightjars than human surveyors: recorders detected nightjars during 19 of 22 survey periods, while surveyors detected nightjars on only six of these occasions. In addition, there was no correlation between the amount of vocalisation captured by the acoustic recorders and the abundance of nightjars as recorded by human surveyors. The data obtained from the recorders revealed that nightjars were most active just before dawn and just after dusk, and least active during the middle of the night. As a result, we found that recording at both dusk and dawn or only at dawn would give reasonably high levels of detection while significantly reducing recording time, preserving battery life. Our analyses suggest that automated bioacoustic recorders could increase the detection of other species, particularly those that are known to be difficult to detect using traditional survey methods. The accuracy of detection is especially important when the data are used to inform conservation.

Deconstructing Community for Conservation: Why Simple Assumptions are Not Sufficient.

Many conservation policies advocate engagement with local people, but conservation practice has sometimes been criticised for a simplistic understanding of communities and social context. To counter this, this paper explores social structuring and its influences on conservation-related behaviours at the site of a conservation intervention near Pipar forest, within the Seti Khola valley, Nepal. Qualitative and quantitative data from questionnaires and Rapid Rural Appraisal demonstrate how links between groups directly and indirectly influence behaviours of conservation relevance (including existing and potential resource-use and proconservation activities). For low-status groups the harvesting of resources can be driven by others' preference for wild foods, whilst perceptions of elite benefit-capture may cause reluctance to engage with future conservation interventions. The findings reiterate the need to avoid relying on simple assumptions about 'community' in conservation, and particularly the relevance of understanding relationships between groups, in order to understand natural resource use and implications for conservation.

Protected areas in South Asia have not prevented habitat loss: a study using historical models of land-use change.

Habitat loss imperils species both locally and globally, so protection of intact habitat is critical for slowing the rate of biodiversity decline. Globally, more than 150,000 protected areas have been designated with a goal of protecting species and ecosystems, but whether they can continue to achieve this goal as human impacts escalate is unknown. Here we show that in South Asia, one of the world's major growth epicentres, the trajectory of habitat conversion rates inside protected areas is indistinguishable from that on unprotected lands, and habitat conversion rates do not decline following gazettement of a protected area. Moreover, a quarter of the land inside South Asia's protected areas is now classified as human modified. If the global community is to make significant progress towards the Convention on Biological Diversity's Aichi Target on protected areas, there is an urgent need both to substantially enhance management of these protected areas and to develop systematic conservation outside the formal protected area system.