The impact of primary health care on malaria morbidity--defining access by disease burden.

OBJECTIVES: Primary care facilities are increasingly becoming the focal point for distribution of malaria intervention strategies, but physical access to these facilities may limit the extent to which communities can be reached. To investigate the impact of travel time to primary care on the incidence of hospitalized malaria episodes in a rural district in Kenya. METHODS: The incidence of hospitalized malaria in a population under continuous demographic surveillance was recorded over 3 years. The time to travel to the nearest primary health care facility was calculated for every child between birth and 5 years of age and trends in incidence of hospitalized malaria as a function of travel time were evaluated. RESULTS: The incidence of hospitalized malaria more than doubled as travel time to the nearest primary care facility increased from 10 min to 2 h. Good access to primary health facilities may reduce the burden of disease by as much as 66%. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight both the potential of the primary health care system in reaching those most at risk and reducing the disease burden. Insufficient access is an important risk factor, one that may be inequitably distributed to the poorest households.

The availability of potential hosts as a determinant of feeding behaviours and malaria transmission by African mosquito populations.

A simple model for the influence of host availability on vector bloodmeal choice is applied to estimate the relative availabilities of humans, cattle and other host populations to malaria vectors in African communities, using published human blood indices and ratios of cattle to humans. Cattle were bitten < 0.01, 0.021 +/- 0.11, 1.61 +/- 0.16 and 1.61 +/- 0.46 times as often as humans by Anopheles funestus, An. gambiae sensu stricto and An. arabiensis in Segera, Tanzania, and An. gambiae sensu lato in The Gambia, respectively. No significant feeding upon host species other than cattle or humans was detected. Even though An. gambiae s.l. in The Gambia were mostly An. gambiae s.s., they were 77 times more likely to choose cattle over humans than An. gambiae s.s. in Tanzania. The model accurately predicted cattle blood indices for the An. arabiensis population in Tanzania (predicted = 0.99 +/- 0.21 x observed + 0.00 +/- 0.10; r2 = 0.66). The potential effect of increased cattle abundance upon malaria transmission intensity was simulated using fitted relative availability parameters and assuming vector emergence rate, feeding cycle length and survivorship were unaffected. The model predicted that increased cattle populations would not affect malaria transmission in Tanzania but could drastically reduce transmission in The Gambia or where An. arabiensis is the dominant vector. We define the availability of a host as the rate at which a typical individual host-seeking vector encounters and feeds upon that host in a single feeding cycle. Mathematical models based on this definition also represent promising tools for quantifying the dependence of vector longevity, feeding cycle length and dispersal upon host availability.

Meiotic recombination, cross-reactivity, and persistence in Plasmodium falciparum.

We incorporate a representation of Plasmodium falciparum recombination within a discrete-event model of malaria transmission. We simulate the introduction of a new parasite genotype into a human population in which another genotype has reached equilibrium prevalence and compare the emergence and persistence of the novel recombinant forms under differing cross-reactivity relationships between the genotypes. Cross-reactivity between the parental (initial and introduced) genotypes reduces the frequency of appearance of recombinants within three years of introduction from 100% to 14%, and delays their appearance by more than a year, on average. Cross-reactivity between parental and recombinant genotypes reduces the frequency of appearance to 36% and increases the probability of recombinant extinction following appearance from 0% to 83%. When a recombinant is cross-reactive with its parental types, its probability of extinction is influenced by cross-reactivity between the parental types in the opposite manner; that is, its probability of extinction after appearance decreases. Frequencies of P. falciparum outcrossing are mediated by frequencies of mixed-genotype infections in the host population, which are in turn mediated by the structure of cross-reactivity between parasite genotypes. The three leading hypotheses about how meiosis relates to oocyst production lead to quantitative, but no qualitative, differences in these results.

Can treatment of P. vivax lead to a unexpected appearance of falciparum malaria?

Of 994 patients admitted to the Bangkok Hospital for Tropical Diseases for P. vivax malaria, 104 (10.5%) experienced appearance of Plasmodiumfalciparum following drug treatment for P. vivax . In all patients, P. falciparum parasites were not found by microscopic examination upon admission. The mean time for P. falciparum appearance was 12.6 days after the commencement of chloroquine treatment. Patients experiencing appearance of P. falciparum had significantly lower hematocrit, and greater initial P. vivax parasite counts. We use a mathematical model to explore the consequences of chloroquine treatment of such mixed infections. Both clinical results and features of the model suggest that such "hidden infections" may be quite common, and that the appearance of P. falciparum may be stimulated by treatment of P. vivax.

Plasmodium malariae blood-stage dynamics.

We examine the dynamics of parasitemia, fever, and gametocytemia reflected in the preintervention charts of 180 malaria-naive U.S. neurosyphilis patients infected with the USPHS strain of Plasmodium malariae, for malariatherapy, focusing on the 84 charts for which more than 35 days of patency preceded intervention and daily records encompassed 92% or more of the duration of each infection. Inoculum size did not influence any outcome variable. Fevers (days with temperatures > or =101 F) followed patterns that fit recognized brood structures more often than did our approximations of merogony cycles (via local peaks in parasitemia), but neither closely fit textbook quartan patterns. There were no discernable patterns in gametocytemia. Successful transmission to mosquitoes increased following subcurative drug treatment but did not depend on detectable gametocytemia.

Why model malaria?

The past 30 years have seen little tangible progress in alleviating the worldwide burden of malaria. Ellis McKenzie here discusses some of the history, problems and prospects of mathematical models of malaria, and the contributions that models might make towards progress. He argues that models can be powerful tools for integrating information from different disciplines, and that advances in computer modeling can complement and extend classic approaches.

Identification of phylogenetic footprints in primate tumor necrosis factor-alpha promoters.

The human tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) gene encodes a pleiotropic cytokine that plays a critical role in basic immunologic processes. To investigate the TNF-alpha regulatory region in the primate lineage, we isolated TNF-alpha promoters from representative great apes, Old World monkeys, and New World monkeys. We demonstrate that there is a nonuniform distribution of fixed human differences in the TNF-alpha promoter. We define a "fixed human difference" as a site that is not polymorphic in humans, but which differs in at least one of the seven primate sequences examined. Furthermore, we identify two human TNF-alpha promoter single nucleotide polymorphisms that are putative ancestral polymorphisms, because each of the human polymorphic nucleotides was found at the identical site in at least one of the other primate sequences. Strikingly, the largest conserved region among the primate species, a 69-nt "phylogenetic footprint," corresponds to a region of the human TNF-alpha promoter that forms the transcriptionally active nucleoprotein-DNA complex, essential for gene regulation. By contrast, other regions of the TNF-alpha promoter, which exhibit a high density of variable sites, are nonessential for gene expression, indicating that distinct TNF-alpha promoter regions have been subjected to different evolutionary constraints depending on their function. TNF-alpha is the first case in which a promoter region dissected by functional analyses can be correlated with nucleotide polymorphism and variability in primate lineages. The results suggest that patterns of polymorphism and divergence are likely to be useful in identifying candidate regions important for gene regulation in other immune-response genes.

A simplified model for predicting malaria entomologic inoculation rates based on entomologic and parasitologic parameters relevant to control.

Malaria transmission intensity is modeled from the starting perspective of individual vector mosquitoes and is expressed directly as the entomologic inoculation rate (EIR). The potential of individual mosquitoes to transmit malaria during their lifetime is presented graphically as a function of their feeding cycle length and survival, human biting preferences, and the parasite sporogonic incubation period. The EIR is then calculated as the product of 1) the potential of individual vectors to transmit malaria during their lifetime, 2) vector emergence rate relative to human population size, and 3) the infectiousness of the human population to vectors. Thus, impacts on more than one of these parameters will amplify each other's effects. The EIRs transmitted by the dominant vector species at four malaria-endemic sites from Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, and Nigeria were predicted using field measurements of these characteristics together with human biting rate and human reservoir infectiousness. This model predicted EIRs (+/- SD) that are 1.13 +/- 0.37 (range = 0.84-1.59) times those measured in the field. For these four sites, mosquito emergence rate and lifetime transmission potential were more important determinants of the EIR than human reservoir infectiousness. This model and the input parameters from the four sites allow the potential impacts of various control measures on malaria transmission intensity to be tested under a range of endemic conditions. The model has potential applications for the development and implementation of transmission control measures and for public health education.

The potential impact of integrated malaria transmission control on entomologic inoculation rate in highly endemic areas.

We have used a relatively simple but accurate model for predicting the impact of integrated transmission control on the malaria entomologic inoculation rate (EIR) at four endemic sites from across sub-Saharan Africa and the southwest Pacific. The simulated campaign incorporated modestly effective vaccine coverage, bed net use, and larval control. The results indicate that such campaigns would reduce EIRs at all four sites by 30- to 50-fold. Even without the vaccine, 15- to 25-fold reductions of EIR were predicted, implying that integrated control with a few modestly effective tools can meaningfully reduce malaria transmission in a range of endemic settings. The model accurately predicts the effects of bed nets and indoor spraying and demonstrates that they are the most effective tools available for reducing EIR. However, the impact of domestic adult vector control is amplified by measures for reducing the rate of emergence of vectors or the level of infectiousness of the human reservoir. We conclude that available tools, including currently neglected methods for larval control, can reduce malaria transmission intensity enough to alleviate mortality. Integrated control programs should be implemented to the fullest extent possible, even in areas of intense transmission, using simple models as decision-making tools. However, we also conclude that to eliminate malaria in many areas of intense transmission is beyond the scope of methods which developing nations can currently afford. New, cost-effective, practical tools are needed if malaria is ever to be eliminated from highly endemic areas.

Blood-stage dynamics and clinical implications of mixed Plasmodium vivax-Plasmodium falciparum infections.

We present a mathematical model of the blood-stage dynamics of mixed Plasmodium vivax-Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections in humans. The model reproduces features of such infections found in nature and suggests several phenomena that may merit clinical attention, including the potential recrudescence of a long-standing, low-level P. falciparum infection following a P. vivax infection or relapse and the capacity of an existing P. vivax infection to reduce the peak parasitemia of a P. falciparum superinfection. We simulate the administration of antimalarial drugs, and illustrate some potential complications in treating mixed-species malaria infections. Notably, our model indicates that when a mixed-species infection is misdiagnosed as a single-species P. vivax infection, treatment for P. vivax can lead to a surge in P. falciparum parasitemia.

The blood-stage dynamics of mixed Plasmodium malariae-Plasmodium falciparum infections.

We present the first mathematical model of the within-host dynamics of a mixed-species malaria infection in a human: the blood-stage population dynamics of a dual infection with Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium falciparum. Our results reproduce several important features of such infections in nature, including the asymmetry of species asexual-form densities, inter-specific suppression through interactions with the human immune system, and seasonal alternations in species prevalence. Most importantly, our results suggest that an existing P. malariae infection can reduce the peak parasitemia of a subsequent P. falciparum superinfection by as much as 50%. This result integrates numerous empirical observations and supports the hypothesis that clinical outcomes of P. falciparum infections may be influenced by the presence of a congener.

Multispecies Plasmodium infections of humans.

We analyzed point-prevalence data from 19 recent studies of human populations in which either Plasmodium ovale or Plasmodium vivax co-occur with Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium malariae. Although the only statistical interactions among, sympatric congeners are pairwise, the frequencies of mixed-species infections relative to standard hypotheses of species sampling independence show no strong relation to overall malaria prevalence. The striking difference between the P. falciparum-P. malariae-P. ovale and the P. falciparum-P. malariae-P. vivax data is that the first typically shows a statistical surplus of mixed-species infections and the second a deficit. This suggests that the number of Plasmodium species present in a human population may be less important in determining the frequencies of mixed-species infections than is the identity of those species.

Identification of three new single nucleotide polymorphisms in the human tumor necrosis factor-alpha gene promoter.

We have identified three new human tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) promoter polymorphisms with single nucleotide (nt) substitutions at -862, -856, and -574 nt relative to the TNF-alpha transcription start site. The -862 and -856 nt TNF-alpha promoter polymorphisms occur with high frequency in Caucasian and Cambodian individuals and are each non-randomly associated with three extended HLA haplotypes. This study, in which 61 independent TNF-alpha promoters were analyzed spanning from -977 to +93 nt relative to the TNF-alpha mRNA cap site, establishes a new canonical TNF-alpha promoter sequence. Furthermore, we show that none of the three novel polymorphisms at -862, -856 and -574 nt or polymorphisms previously described at positions -238, -308 and +70 have an effect upon TNF-alpha gene expression in activated lymphocytes. Thus, these TNF-alpha promoter polymorphisms likely serve as markers for neighboring genes encoding HLA or other undefined molecules in the MHC that may influence disease susceptibility.

The optimal production of gametocytes by Plasmodium falciparum.

We use a simple model of the blood-stage infection dynamics of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum to consider the adaptive significance of different rates of conversion from its pathogenic, asexual stages to its transmissible, sexual forms. We find that maximize transmissivity in single-strain infections are generally greater than the highest rates reported for in vitro cultures and are several times those for which the behavior of the model is consistent with clinical profiles of infection dynamics. When two strains that share a common immune agent coinfect a host through simultaneous inoculation or sequential superinfection, however, a strain with a lower, clinically-consistent value of the conversion rate inhibits the transmissivity of one with the higher value optimal for single-strain infection. Hence we suggest that "apparent" competition by way of a common immune response might be responsible for selection of the former.