Development and external validation of a head and neck cancer risk prediction model.

BACKGROUND: Head and neck cancer (HNC) incidence is on the rise, often diagnosed at late stage and associated with poor prognoses. Risk prediction tools have a potential role in prevention and early detection. METHODS: The IARC-ARCAGE European case-control study was used as the model development dataset. A clinical HNC risk prediction model using behavioral and demographic predictors was developed via multivariable logistic regression analyses. The model was then externally validated in the UK Biobank cohort. Model performance was tested using discrimination and calibration metrics. RESULTS: 1926 HNC cases and 2043 controls were used for the development of the model. The development dataset model including sociodemographic, smoking, and alcohol variables had moderate discrimination, with an area under curve (AUC) value of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.77); the calibration slope (0.75) and tests were suggestive of good calibration. 384 616 UK Biobank participants (with 1177 HNC cases) were available for external validation of the model. Upon external validation, the model had an AUC of 0.62 (95% CI, 0.61-0.64). CONCLUSION: We developed and externally validated a HNC risk prediction model using the ARCAGE and UK Biobank studies, respectively. This model had moderate performance in the development population and acceptable performance in the validation dataset. Demographics and risk behaviors are strong predictors of HNC, and this model may be a helpful tool in primary dental care settings to promote prevention and determine recall intervals for dental examination. Future addition of HPV serology or genetic factors could further enhance individual risk prediction.

Taking care of nurses is a boost for patients and the wider economy.

Investment in nursing is key to having a healthy workforce and a healthy population. NHS Chief Nursing Officers for Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and England Alex McMahon, Maria McIlgorm, Sue Tranka and Ruth May reflect on policies adopted over the past year aimed at developing the healthcare workforce.

Physical health of care-experienced young children in high-income countries: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Good health in the early years lays the foundation for lifelong health. Children with experience of extraparental care (eg, foster, kinship, residential) have poorer outcomes than children without such experience. Common health conditions in high-income countries differ from those in low-income and middle-income countries. Health conditions also vary substantially with age. The literature examining physical health conditions affecting young care-experienced children in high-income countries has not been previously reviewed. This review addresses this gap to better understand the health needs of these children. METHODS: In this scoping review, we used a broad range of search terms in MEDLINE, CINAHL, and Web of Science Core Collection databases to identify studies of (1) care-experienced children, (2) physical health outcomes, and (3) children aged 6 years or younger. Intersecting search results were retained for screening. Results were restricted to peer-reviewed journal articles indexed before Sept 1, 2022, with titles in English. Grey literature was excluded. No restriction was placed on study design. Results were narratively synthesised and categorised by health condition. FINDINGS: Searches yielded 15 639 results, and 33 articles were ultimately included, covering 11 countries. Studies were concentrated in the USA (n=18, 55%) and Europe (including UK; n=10, 30%). Most studies investigated a specific health outcome or set of outcomes (n=23, 70%) with many of the remaining studies carrying out broader health reviews (n=8, 24%). Height and weight were the most frequently reported outcomes (n=10, 30%) followed by vision (n=7, 21%) and dental health (n=7, 21%). Nine studies (27%) compared outcomes in care-experienced children with outcomes in non-care-experienced controls. Synthesis of results identified poor physical development, poor dental health, low rates of immunisation, dermatological conditions, and anaemia to be substantial health problems among young children with care experience. INTERPRETATION: Poor physical development and anaemia suggest efforts are required to improve care-experienced children's diet. Dermatological conditions and poor dental health can be managed by additional health-care support to care-experienced children and caregivers. A strength of this work is the standardised methodology. This work is limited by the exclusion of grey literature and restriction to high-income countries. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, and Chief Scientist Office (Scotland).

Inequalities in access to NHS primary care dental services in Scotland during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Introduction This study aimed to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on access and inequalities in primary care dental services among children and adults in Scotland.Methods Access was measured as any NHS Scotland primary care dental contacts derived from administrative data from January 2019 to May 2022, linked to the area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation for children and adults, and related to population denominator estimates from National Record Scotland. Inequalities for pre-pandemic (January 2019-January 2020) and recent (December 2021-February 2022, and March 2022-May 2022) periods for both children and adults were calculated and compared using the slope index of inequality and relative index of inequality.Results Following the first lockdown (March 2020) there was a dramatic fall to near zero dental contacts, followed by a slow recovery to 64.8% of pre-pandemic levels by May 2022. There was initial widening of relative inequalities in dental contacts in early 2022, which, more recently, had begun to return to pre-pandemic levels.Conclusion COVID-19 had a major impact on access to NHS primary dental care, and while inequalities in access are apparent as services recover from lockdown, these inequalities are not a new phenomenon.

As we celebrate the 75th anniversary of the NHS, many challenges remain.

Despite the pressures facing nurses, NHS Chief Nursing Officers for Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England Alex McMahon, Sue Tranka, Maria McIlgorm and Ruth May look forward to new opportunities and projects to retain and develop existing staff and initiatives to attract potential recruits to the profession.

Evaluating childsmile, Scotland's National Oral Health Improvement Programme for children.

In the early 2000s, a Scottish Government Oral Health Action Plan identified the need for a national programme to improve child oral health and reduce inequalities. 'Childsmile' aimed to improve child oral health in Scotland, reduce inequalities in outcomes and access to dental services, and to shift the balance of care from treatment to prevention through targeted and universal components in dental practice, community and educational settings. This paper describes how an embedded, theory-based research and evaluation arm with multi-disciplinary input helps determine priorities and provides important strategic direction. Programme theory is articulated in dedicated, dynamic logic models, and evaluation themes are as follows: population-level data linkage; trials and economic evaluations; investigations drawing from behavioural and implementation science; evidence reviews and updates; and applications of systems science. There is also a growing knowledge sharing network internationally. Collaborative working from all stakeholders is necessary to maintain gains and to address areas that may not be working as well, and never more so with the major disruptions to the programme from the COVID-19 pandemic and response. Conclusions are that evaluation and research are synergistic with a complex, dynamic programme like Childsmile. The evidence obtained allows for appraisal of the relative strengths of component interventions and the reach and impact of Childsmile to feed into national policy.

Risk prediction models for head and neck cancer: A rapid review.

Background: Cancer risk assessment models are used to support prevention and early detection. However, few models have been developed for head and neck cancer (HNC). Methods: A rapid review of Embase and MEDLINE identified n = 3045 articles. Following dual screening, n = 14 studies were included. Quality appraisal using the PROBAST (risk of bias) instrument was conducted, and a narrative synthesis was performed to identify the best performing models in terms of risk factors and designs. Results: Six of the 14 models were assessed as "high" quality. Of these, three had high predictive performance achieving area under curve values over 0.8 (0.87-0.89). The common features of these models were their inclusion of predictors carefully tailored to the target population/anatomical subsite and development with external validation. Conclusions: Some existing models do possess the potential to identify and stratify those at risk of HNC but there is scope for improvement.

Head and neck cancer in the UK: what was the stage before COVID-19? UK cancer registries analysis (2011-2018).

Introduction People who present with more advanced stage head and neck cancer (HNC) are associated with poorer outcomes and survival. The burden and trends of advanced stage HNC are not fully known at the population level. The UK national cancer registries routinely collect data on HNC diagnoses.Aims To describe trends in stage of diagnosis of HNCs across the UK before the COVID-19 pandemic.Methods Aggregated HNC incidence data were requested from the national cancer registries of the four UK countries for the ten most recent years of available data by subsite and American Joint Commission on Cancer stage at diagnosis classification. Additionally, data for Scotland were available by age group, sex and area-based socioeconomic deprivation category.Results Across the UK, rates of advanced stage HNC had increased, with 59% of patients having advanced disease at diagnosis from 2016-2018. England had a lower proportion of advanced disease (58%) than Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland (65-69%) where stage data were available. The completeness of stage data had improved over recent years (87% by 2018).Conclusion Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, diagnoses of HNC at an advanced stage comprised the majority of HNCs in the UK, representing the major challenge for the cancer healthcare system.

Working together to promote and celebrate the diversity of nursing.

This year has been particularly challenging for nurses around the world. As the commemorations take place for International Nurses Day on 12 May, the Chief Nursing Officer for Scotland and Chief Nursing Officer for Wales share their priorities and hopes for the coming year.

Physical health of care-experienced young children in high-income countries: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Care-experienced children have poorer health, developmental, and quality of life outcomes across the lifespan compared to children who are not in care. These inequities begin to manifest in the early years. The purpose of the proposed scoping review is to collate and synthesise studies of the physical health of young care-experienced children. The results of the review will help map the distribution of health outcomes, identify potential targets for intervention, and assess gaps in the literature relating to this group. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will carry out a scoping review of the literature to identify studies of physical health outcomes in care-experienced children. Systematic literature searches will be carried out on the MEDLINE, CINAHL and Web of Science Core Collection databases for items indexed on or before 31 August 2022. Studies will be included where the participants are aged 3 months or greater and less than 6 years. Data elements extracted from included studies will include study objectives, health outcomes, participant demographics, care setting characteristics and bibliographic information. The results of the review will be synthesised and reported using a critical narrative approach. Comparisons between care and non-care populations will be reported if sufficient studies are identified. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Data will be extracted from publicly available sources, so no additional ethical approval is required. Results will be published in a peer-reviewed journal article. Furthermore, they will be shared in summary reports and presented to local authorities, care organisations and other relevant stakeholders that can influence healthcare policy and procedure relating to young children in care.

Cancer mortality 1981-2016 and contribution of specific cancers to current socioeconomic inequalities in all cancer mortality: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: In many high-income countries cancer mortality rates have declined, however, socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have widened over time with those in the most deprived areas bearing the greatest burden. Less is known about the contribution of specific cancers to inequalities in total cancer mortality. METHODS: Using high-quality routinely collected population and mortality records we examine long-term trends in cancer mortality rates in Scotland by age group, sex, and area deprivation. We use the decomposed slope and relative indices of inequality to identify the specific cancers that contribute most to absolute and relative inequalities, respectively, in total cancer mortality. RESULTS: Cancer mortality rates fell by 24 % for males and 10 % for females over the last 35 years; declining across all age groups except females aged 75+ where rates rose by 14 %. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer death. Mortality rates of lung cancer have more than halved for males since 1981, while rates among females have almost doubled over the same period. CONCLUSION: Current relative inequalities in total cancer mortality are dominated by inequalities in lung cancer mortality, but with contributions from other cancer sites including liver, and head and neck (males); and breast (females), stomach and cervical (younger females). An understanding of which cancer sites contribute most to inequalities in total cancer mortality is crucial for improving cancer health and care, and for reducing preventable cancer deaths.

Occupational socioeconomic risk associations for head and neck cancer in Europe and South America: individual participant data analysis of pooled case-control studies within the INHANCE Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The association between socioeconomic disadvantage (low education and/or income) and head and neck cancer is well established, with smoking and alcohol consumption explaining up to three-quarters of the risk. We aimed to investigate the nature of and explanations for head and neck cancer risk associated with occupational socioeconomic prestige (a perceptual measure of psychosocial status), occupational socioeconomic position and manual-work experience, and to assess the potential explanatory role of occupational exposures. METHODS: Pooled analysis included 5818 patients with head and neck cancer (and 7326 control participants) from five studies in Europe and South America. Lifetime job histories were coded to: (1) occupational social prestige-Treiman's Standard International Occupational Prestige Scale (SIOPS); (2) occupational socioeconomic position-International Socio-Economic Index (ISEI); and (3) manual/non-manual jobs. RESULTS: For the longest held job, adjusting for smoking, alcohol and nature of occupation, increased head and neck cancer risk estimates were observed for low SIOPS OR=1.88 (95% CI: 1.64 to 2.17), low ISEI OR=1.74 (95% CI: 1.51 to 1.99) and manual occupations OR=1.49 (95% CI: 1.35 to 1.64). Following mutual adjustment by socioeconomic exposures, risk associated with low SIOPS remained OR=1.59 (95% CI: 1.30 to 1.94). CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that low occupational socioeconomic prestige, position and manual work are associated with head and neck cancer, and such risks are only partly explained by smoking, alcohol and occupational exposures. Perceptual occupational psychosocial status (SIOPS) appears to be the strongest socioeconomic factor, relative to socioeconomic position and manual/non-manual work.

Inequality in survival of people with head and neck cancer: Head and Neck 5000 cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Explanations for socioeconomic inequalities in survival of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients have had limited attention and are not well understood. METHODS: The UK Head and Neck 5000 prospective clinical cohort study was analyzed. Survival relating to measures of socioeconomic status was explored including area-based and individual factors. Three-year overall survival was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method. All-cause mortality was investigated via adjusted Cox Proportional Hazard models. RESULTS: A total of 3440 people were included. Three-year overall survival was 76.3% (95% CI 74.9, 77.7). Inequality in survival by deprivation category, highest education level, and financial concerns was explained by age, sex, health, and behavioral factors. None of the potential explanatory factors fully explained the inequality associated with annual household income or the proportion of income of benefits. CONCLUSION: These results support the interventions to address the financial issues within the wider care and support provided to HNC patients.

Evaluation of a national complex oral health improvement programme: a population data linkage cohort study in Scotland.

OBJECTIVES: Child dental caries is a global public health challenge with high prevalence and wide inequalities. A complex public health programme (Childsmile) was established. We aimed to evaluate the reach of the programme and its impact on child oral health. SETTING: Education, health and community settings, Scotland-wide. INTERVENTIONS: Childsmile (national oral health improvement programme) interventions: nursery-based fluoride varnish applications (FVAs) and supervised daily toothbrushing, community-based Dental Health Support Worker (DHSW) contacts and primary care dental practice visits-delivered to the population via a proportionate universal approach. PARTICIPANTS: 50 379 children (mean age=5.5 years, SD=0.3) attending local authority schools (2014/2015). DESIGN: Population-based individual child-level data on four Childsmile interventions linked to dental inspection survey data to form a longitudinal cohort. Logistic regression assessed intervention reach and the independent impact of each intervention on caries experience, adjusting for age, sex and area-based Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). OUTCOME MEASURES: Reach of the programme is defined as the percentage of children receiving each intervention at least once by SIMD fifth. Obvious dental caries experience (presence/absence) is defined as the presence of decay (into dentine), missing (extracted) due to decay or filled deciduous teeth. RESULTS: 15 032 (29.8%) children had caries experience. The universal interventions had high population reach: nursery toothbrushing (89.1%), dental practice visits (70.5%). The targeted interventions strongly favoured children from the most deprived areas: DHSW contacts (SIMD 1: 29.5% vs SIMD 5: 7.7%), nursery FVAs (SIMD 1: 75.2% vs SIMD 5: 23.2%). Odds of caries experience were markedly lower among children participating in nursery toothbrushing (>3 years, adjusted OR (aOR)=0.60; 95% CI 0.55 to 0.66) and attending dental practice (≥6 visits, aOR=0.55; 95% CI 0.50 to 0.61). The findings were less clear for DHSW contacts. Nursery FVAs were not independently associated with caries experience. CONCLUSIONS: The universal interventions, nursery toothbrushing and regular dental practice visits were independently and most strongly associated with reduced odds of caries experience in the cohort, with nursery toothbrushing having the greatest impact among children in areas of high deprivation.

Fluoride Varnish in Nursery Schools: A Randomised Controlled Trial - Protecting Teeth @3.

Studies suggest that fluoride varnish (FV) application can reduce dental caries in child populations. The multiple-component national child oral health improvement programme in Scotland (Childsmile) includes nursery-based universal supervised toothbrushing and deprivation-targeted FV applications, together with community and dental practice prevention interventions. This trial, a double-blind, two-arm randomised control trial, aimed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the nursery-based FV applications plus treatment-as-usual (TAU) Childsmile programme interventions, compared to TAU Childsmile interventions alone, in children not targeted to receive nursery FV as part of the programme. Participating children in the first year of nursery (aged three), with or without existing caries, were randomised to either FV or TAU and followed up for 24 months until the first year of primary school. Treatments were administered at six-monthly intervals. The primary endpoint was "worsening of d3mft" from baseline to 24 months. Secondary endpoints were worsening of d3mfs, d3t, mt, and ft. Individual record-linkage captured wider programme activities and tertiary endpoints. A total of 1,284 children were randomised, leading to 1,150 evaluable children (n = 577 FV, n = 573 TAU, 10% dropouts). Mean age was 3.5 years, 50% were female (n = 576), 17% had caries at baseline (n = 195), all balanced between the groups. Most children received three/four treatments. Overall, 26.9% (n = 155) had worsened d3mft in the FV group, and 31.6% (n = 181) in the TAU group, with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.80 (0.62-1.03), p = 0.078. The results for worsening of the secondary endpoints were: d3mfs 0.79 (0.61-1.01) p = 0.063, d3t 0.75 (0.57-0.99) p = 0.043, mt 1.34 (0.75-2.39) p = 0.319, and ft 0.77 (0.53-1.14) p = 0.191. We calculated a number needed to treat of 21 and a cost of GBP 686 to prevent a single worsening of d3mft. There was a modest non-significant reduction in the worsening of d3mft in the nursery FV group compared to TAU, suggesting that this intervention is unlikely to represent an effective or cost-effective addition to the population oral health improvement programme.

Determinants of long-term survival in a population-based cohort study of patients with head and neck cancer from Scotland.

BACKGROUND: We investigated long-term survival from head and neck cancer (HNC) using different survival approaches. METHODS: Patients were followed-up from the Scottish Audit of Head and Neck Cancer. Overall survival and disease-specific survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Net survival was calculated by the Pohar-Perme method. Mutually adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the predictors of survival. RESULTS: A total of 1820 patients were included in the analyses. Overall survival at 12 years was 26.3% (24.3%, 28.3%). Disease-specific survival at 12 years was 56.9% (54.3%, 59.4%). Net survival at 12 years was 41.4% (37.6%, 45.1%). CONCLUSION: Determinants associated with long-term survival included age, stage, treatment modality, WHO performance status, alcohol consumption, smoking behavior, and anatomical site. We recommend that net survival is used for long-term outcomes for HNC patients-it disentangles other causes of death, which are overestimated in overall survival and underestimated in disease-specific survival.

Inequalities in the dental health needs and access to dental services among looked after children in Scotland: a population data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the health needs and service access among children and young people who are looked after by the state. The aim of this study was to compare dental treatment needs and access to dental services (as an exemplar of wider health and well-being concerns) among children and young people who are looked after with the general child population. METHODS: Population data linkage study utilising national datasets of social work referrals for 'looked after' placements, the Scottish census of children in local authority schools, and national health service's dental health and service datasets. RESULTS: 633 204 children in publicly funded schools in Scotland during the academic year 2011/2012, of whom 10 927 (1.7%) were known to be looked after during that or a previous year (from 2007-2008). The children in the looked after children (LAC) group were more likely to have urgent dental treatment need at 5 years of age: 23%vs10% (n=209/16533), adjusted (for age, sex and area socioeconomic deprivation) OR 2.65 (95% CI 2.30 to 3.05); were less likely to attend a dentist regularly: 51%vs63% (n=5519/388934), 0.55 (0.53 to 0.58) and more likely to have teeth extracted under general anaesthesia: 9%vs5% (n=967/30253), 1.91 (1.78 to 2.04). CONCLUSIONS: LAC are more likely to have dental treatment needs and less likely to access dental services even when accounting for sociodemographic factors. Greater efforts are required to integrate child social and healthcare for LAC and to develop preventive care pathways on entering and throughout their time in the care system.

Inequality in the Survival of Patients With Head and Neck Cancer in Scotland.

Background: Socioeconomic inequalities impact on the survival of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients, but there is limited understanding of the explanations of the inequality, particularly in long-term survival. Methods: Patients were recruited from the Scottish Audit of Head and Neck Cancer between 1999 and 2001 and were linked to mortality data as at 30th September 2013. Socioeconomic status was determined using the area-based Carstairs 2001 index. Overall and disease-specific survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method with 95% confidence intervals (CI's) at 1-, 5-, and 12-years. Net survival at 1-, 5-, and 12-years was also computed with 95% CIs. Cox proportional hazard models with 95% CIs were used to determine the explanations for the inequality in survival by all-cause mortality and disease-specific mortality with 95% CIs. Results: Most patients were from the most deprived group, and were more likely to smoke, drink, have cancer of a higher stage and have a lower WHO Performance Status. A clear gradient across Carstairs fifths for unadjusted overall and disease-specific survival was observed at 1-, 5-, and 12-years for patients with HNC. Following the adjustment for multiple patient, tumor and treatment factors, the inequality in survival for patients with HNC had attenuated and was no longer statistically significant at 1-, 5-, and 12-years. Conclusion: A clear gradient across Carstairs fifths for unadjusted overall, disease-specific and net survival was observed at 1-, 5-, and 12-years for HNC patients in Scotland from 1999 to 2001. This study concludes that explanations for the inequality in the survival of patients with HNC are not straightforward, and that many factors including various patient, tumor and treatment factors play a part in the inequality in the survival of patients with HNC.

Research should be at the core of nursing.

If we are to improve management of long-term conditions, and address the needs of our ageing population, we must make nursing research central to nursing practice.