Incentivising safe sex: a randomised trial of conditional cash transfers for HIV and sexually transmitted infection prevention in rural Tanzania.

OBJECTIVE: The authors evaluated the use of conditional cash transfers as an HIV and sexually transmitted infection prevention strategy to incentivise safe sex. DESIGN: An unblinded, individually randomised and controlled trial. SETTING: 10 villages within the Kilombero/Ulanga districts of the Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System in rural south-west Tanzania. PARTICIPANTS: The authors enrolled 2399 participants, aged 18-30 years, including adult spouses. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomly assigned to either a control arm (n=1124) or one of two intervention arms: low-value conditional cash transfer (eligible for $10 per testing round, n=660) and high-value conditional cash transfer (eligible for $20 per testing round, n=615). The authors tested participants every 4 months over a 12-month period for the presence of common sexually transmitted infections. In the intervention arms, conditional cash transfer payments were tied to negative sexually transmitted infection test results. Anyone testing positive for a sexually transmitted infection was offered free treatment, and all received counselling. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary study end point was combined prevalence of the four sexually transmitted infections, which were tested and reported to subjects every 4 months: Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis and Mycoplasma genitalium. The authors also tested for HIV, herpes simplex virus 2 and syphilis at baseline and month 12. RESULTS: At the end of the 12-month period, for the combined prevalence of any of the four sexually transmitted infections, which were tested and reported every 4 months (C trachomatis, N gonorrhoeae, T vaginalis and M genitalium), unadjusted RR for the high-value conditional cash transfer arm compared to controls was 0.80 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.06) and the adjusted RR was 0.73 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.99). Unadjusted RR for the high-value conditional cash transfer arm compared to the low-value conditional cash transfer arm was 0.76 (95% CI 0.49 to 1.03) and the adjusted RR was 0.69 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.92). No harm was reported. CONCLUSIONS: Conditional cash transfers used to incentivise safer sexual practices are a potentially promising new tool in HIV and sexually transmitted infections prevention. Additional larger study would be useful to clarify the effect size, to calibrate the size of the incentive and to determine whether the intervention can be delivered cost effectively. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00922038 ClinicalTrials.gov.

Poverty, gender inequities, and women's risk of human immunodeficiency virus/AIDS.

Entrenched economic and gender inequities together are driving a globally expanding, increasingly female, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS epidemic. To date, significant population-level declines in HIV transmission have not been observed, at least in part because most approaches to prevention have presumed a degree of individual control in decision making that does not speak to the reality of women's and girls' circumstances in many parts of the world. Such efforts have paid insufficient attention to critical characteristics of the risk environment, most notably poverty and gender power inequities. Even fewer interventions have addressed specific mechanisms through which these inequities engender risky sexual practices that result in women's disproportionately increased vulnerabilities to HIV infection. This article focuses on identifying those mechanisms, or structural pathways, that stem from the interactions between poverty and entrenched gender inequities and recommending strategies to address and potentially modify those pathways. We highlight four such structural pathways to HIV risk, all of which could be transformed: (1) lack of access to critical information and health services for HIV/sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention, (2) limited access to formal education and skill development, (3) intimate partner violence, and (4) the negative consequences of migration prompted by insufficient economic resources. We argue for interventions that enhance women's access to education, training, employment, and HIV/STI prevention information and tools; minimize migration; and by working with men and communities, at the same time reduce women's poverty and promote gender-equitable norms. In conclusion, we identify challenges in developing and evaluating strategies to address these structural pathways.

The best of both worlds? Potential of hybrid prospective/concurrent risk adjustment.

BACKGROUND: There remains considerable uncertainty about whether prospective or concurrent risk adjustment (RA) is preferable. Although concurrent models have better predictive power than prospective models, the large payments associated with concurrent RA create incentives for fraudulent coding. A hybrid strategy--in which prospective payments were used for patients with low expected costs and concurrent payments were available upon the diagnosis of a small number of common, expensive conditions--might improve predictive performance while requiring less auditing than fully concurrent RA. In addition, within-condition RA (using clinical data) for the selected conditions could further improve predictive power. OBJECTIVES: To assess how such a hybrid strategy might perform, focusing on a small number of chronic, expensive conditions that are verifiable (hence auditable). SUBJECTS AND MEASURES: All patients from seven health plans who had two complete years of utilization data were considered. RA models were estimated among patients younger than 65 (n = 319,209) using the Hierarchical Coexisting Conditions (HCC) model with and without stratification of the sample based on the presence of one or more of 100 verifiable, expensive, predictive conditions (VEP100). R2 and predictive ratios were calculated for each model studied. RESULTS: Patients with a VEP100 condition (9.3% of the population) accounted for 84.3% of the variation in cost. R2 was 0.08 using a prospective HCC model on the entire population, but increased to 0.26 for a hybrid using prospective HCCs on the 90.7% of the sample without a VEP100 condition and a simple concurrent model consisting of dummy variables for each of the VEP100 conditions. CONCLUSION: Combined with targeted auditing, a hybrid approach to RA could improve our ability to match payments to costs. However, because this would require additional, costly data collection, more research is needed to determine whether this benefit justifies the data collection and auditing burden.