A data-driven model for COVID-19 pandemic - Evolution of the attack rate and prognosis for Brazil.

We introduce a compartmental model SEIAHRV (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Asymptomatic, Hospitalized, Recovered, Vaccinated) with age structure for the spread of the SARAS-CoV virus. In order to model current different vaccines we use compartments for individuals vaccinated with one and two doses without vaccine failure and a compartment for vaccinated individual with vaccine failure. The model allows to consider any number of different vaccines with different efficacies and delays between doses. Contacts among age groups are modeled by a contact matrix and the contagion matrix is obtained from a probability of contagion p c per contact. The model uses known epidemiological parameters and the time dependent probability p c is obtained by fitting the model output to the series of deaths in each locality, and reflects non-pharmaceutical interventions. As a benchmark the output of the model is compared to two good quality serological surveys, and applied to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of We also estimate the attack rate, the total proportion of cases (symptomatic and asymptomatic) with respect to the total population, for all Brazilian states since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that the model present here is relevant to assessing present policies not only in Brazil but also in any place where good serological surveys are not available.

Metastable localization of diseases in complex networks.

We describe the phenomenon of localization in the epidemic susceptible-infective-susceptible model on highly heterogeneous networks in which strongly connected nodes (hubs) play the role of centers of localization. We find that in this model the localized states below the epidemic threshold are metastable. The longevity and scale of the metastable outbreaks do not show a sharp localization transition; instead there is a smooth crossover from localized to delocalized states as we approach the epidemic threshold from below. Analyzing these long-lasting local outbreaks for a random regular graph with a hub, we show how this localization can be detected from the shape of the distribution of the number of infective nodes.

Scale-free network with Boolean dynamics as a function of connectivity.

In this work we analyze scale-free networks with different power-law spectra N (k) approximately k(-gamma) under a Boolean dynamic, where the Boolean rule that each node obeys is a function of its connectivity k. This is done by using only two logical functions (AND and XOR) which are controlled by a parameter q. Using a damage spreading technique we show that the Hamming distance and the number of 1's exhibit power-law behavior as a function of q. The exponents appearing in the power laws depend on the value of gamma.