Incidence and Predictors of Progression to Chagas Cardiomyopathy: Long-Term Follow-Up of Trypanosoma cruzi-Seropositive Individuals.

BACKGROUND: There are few contemporary cohorts of Trypanosoma cruzi-seropositive individuals, and the basic clinical epidemiology of Chagas disease is poorly understood. Herein, we report the incidence of cardiomyopathy and death associated with T. cruzi seropositivity. METHODS: Participants were selected in blood banks at 2 Brazilian centers. Cases were defined as T. cruzi-seropositive blood donors. T. cruzi-seronegative controls were matched for age, sex, and period of donation. Patients with established Chagas cardiomyopathy were recruited from a tertiary outpatient service. Participants underwent medical examination, blood collection, ECG, and echocardiogram at enrollment (2008-2010) and at follow-up (2018-2019). The primary outcomes were all-cause mortality and development of cardiomyopathy, defined as the presence of a left ventricular ejection fraction <50% or QRS complex duration ≥120 ms, or both. To handle loss to follow-up, a sensitivity analysis was performed using inverse probability weights for selection. RESULTS: We enrolled 499 T. cruzi-seropositive donors (age 48±10 years, 52% male), 488 T. cruzi-seronegative donors (age 49±10 years, 49% male), and 101 patients with established Chagas cardiomyopathy (age 48±8 years, 59% male). The mortality in patients with established cardiomyopathy was 80.9 deaths/1000 person-years (py) (54/101, 53%) and 15.1 deaths/1000 py (17/114, 15%) in T. cruzi-seropositive donors with cardiomyopathy at baseline. Among T. cruzi-seropositive donors without cardiomyopathy at baseline, mortality was 3.7 events/1000 py (15/385, 4%), which was no different from T. cruzi-seronegative donors with 3.6 deaths/1000 py (17/488, 3%). The incidence of cardiomyopathy in T. cruzi-seropositive donors was 13.8 (95% CI, 9.5-19.6) events/1000 py (32/262, 12%) compared with 4.6 (95% CI, 2.3-8.3) events/1000 py (11/277, 4%) in seronegative controls, with an absolute incidence difference associated with T. cruzi seropositivity of 9.2 (95% CI, 3.6-15.0) events/1000 py. T. cruzi antibody level at baseline was associated with development of cardiomyopathy (adjusted odds ratio, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.1-1.8]). CONCLUSIONS: We present a comprehensive description of the natural history of T. cruzi seropositivity in a contemporary patient population. The results highlight the central importance of anti-T. cruzi antibody titer as a marker of Chagas disease activity and risk of progression.

Ten-year incidence of Chagas cardiomyopathy among asymptomatic Trypanosoma cruzi-seropositive former blood donors.

BACKGROUND: Very few studies have measured disease penetrance and prognostic factors of Chagas cardiomyopathy among asymptomatic Trypanosoma cruzi-infected persons. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a retrospective cohort study among initially healthy blood donors with an index T cruzi-seropositive donation and age-, sex-, and period-matched seronegatives in 1996 to 2002 in the Brazilian cities of São Paulo and Montes Claros. In 2008 to 2010, all subjects underwent medical history, physical examination, ECGs, and echocardiograms. ECG and echocardiogram results were classified by blinded core laboratories, and records with abnormal results were reviewed by a blinded panel of 3 cardiologists who adjudicated the outcome of Chagas cardiomyopathy. Associations with Chagas cardiomyopathy were tested with multivariate logistic regression. Mean follow-up time between index donation and outcome assessment was 10.5 years for the seropositives and 11.1 years for the seronegatives. Among 499 T cruzi seropositives, 120 (24%) had definite Chagas cardiomyopathy, and among 488 T cruzi seronegatives, 24 (5%) had cardiomyopathy, for an incidence difference of 1.85 per 100 person-years attributable to T cruzi infection. Of the 120 seropositives classified as having Chagas cardiomyopathy, only 31 (26%) presented with ejection fraction <50%, and only 11 (9%) were classified as New York Heart Association class II or higher. Chagas cardiomyopathy was associated (P<0.01) with male sex, a history of abnormal ECG, and the presence of an S3 heart sound. CONCLUSIONS: There is a substantial annual incidence of Chagas cardiomyopathy among initially asymptomatic T cruzi-seropositive blood donors, although disease was mild at diagnosis.