Modeling the predictors of stunting in Ethiopia: analysis of 2016 Ethiopian demographic health survey data (EDHS).

BACKGROUND: Despite continued efforts to address malnutrition, there is minimal reduction in the prevalence rates of stunting in developing countries, including Ethiopia. The association between nutritional and socioeconomic factors collected from a national survey in Ethiopia and stunting have not been rigorously analyzed. Therefore, this study aims to model the effect of nutritional and socioeconomic predictors using 2016 Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey (EDHS) data. METHODS: This study is a secondary data analysis of the 2016 EDHS survey, which included 7909 children aged 6 to59 months. Descriptive statistics using frequency and percentage for categorical data and mean and standard deviation for metric data were conducted. Linearity, confounding, and multicollinearity were checked. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression were carried out. The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. A receiver operative curve was built to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of the model. RESULTS: The study identified that 39.2% of children included in this analysis were stunted. Furthermore, 76.47, 84.27, and 92.62% of the children did not consume fruits and vegetables, legumes and lentils, or meat and its products, respectively. Children aged 24 months to 59 months were found to be at 9.71 times higher risk of being stunted compared to their younger counterparts aged 6-24 months (AOR: 9.71; CI: 8.07, 11.6 children). Those children weighing below 9.1 kg were at 27.86 odds of being stunted compared to those weighing 23.3 kg and above. Moreover, mothers with a height below 150 cm (AOR: 2.01; CI: 1.76, 2.5), living in a rural area (AOR: 1.3, CI: 1.09, 1.54), and being male (AOR: 1.4; CI: 1.26, 1.56) were factors associated with stunting. The predictive ability of the model was 77%: if a pair of observations with stunted and non-stunted children were taken, the model correctly ranks 77% of such pair of observations. CONCLUSION: The model indicates that being born male, being from a mother of short stature, living in rural areas, small child size, mother with mild anemia, father having no formal education or primary education only, having low child weight, and being 24-59 months of age increases the likelihood of stunting. On the other hand, being born of an overweight or obese mother decreases the likelihood of stunting.

In vitro α-amylase inhibitory effect of TLC isolates of Aloe megalacantha baker and Aloe monticola Reynolds.

BACKGROUND: About 425 million adults had diabetes mellitus globally in 2017. Type 2 diabetes accounts for the enormous majority of diabetes cases and it is gradually growing which is predicted to increase by 48% in 2045. Imbalanced cellular carbohydrate and lipid metabolism cause an increase in postprandial blood glucose level which eventually leads to the onset and progression of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The lack of effective and safe carbohydrate hydrolyzing enzyme inhibitors contributes to the increasing prevalence. Thus, this study was targeted to assess the α-amylase inhibitory potential of isolates obtained from Aloe megalacantha Baker and Aloe monticola Reynolds, which are among the commonly used folkloric remedies for the management of diabetes mellitus. METHOD: The α-amylase inhibitory effect of Aloe megalacantha Baker and Aloe monticola Reynolds were evaluated using the 3,5-dinitro salicylic acid method. 2, 2-Diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl free radical scavenging property was also used to test the antioxidant effect of both plants. Results were analysed using GraphPad Prism software version 8. RESULTS: The more polar isolates (AM1 and AG1) were possessed stronger α-amylase inhibition activity than the leaves latex and the other strains (AM2 and AG2). Leaf latex of A. megalacantha, AM1, AM2, leaf latex of A. monticola, AG1, and AG2 were found to have an IC50 value of 74.76 ± 1.98, 37.83 ± 3.31, 96.75 ± 1.98, 78.10 ± 1.88, 56.95 ± 1.88 and 64.03 ± 3.60 µg/mL, respectively (P < 0.001). The leaf latexes of A. megalacantha and A. monticola showed a significant (P < 0.001) free radical hunting property with an IC50 value of 890.1 ± 1.73 and 597.5 ± 2.02 µg/mL, respectively. CONCLUSION: Hence, the outcomes of the present investigation partly justify the acclaimed use of Aloe megalacantha and Aloe monticola for the treatment of diabetes.

Effects of angiotensin converting enzyme gene polymorphism on hypertension in Africa: A meta-analysis and systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is dramatically increasing in Africa with evidence of increased severity and resistance to treatment. Although angiotensin converting enzyme gene polymorphism is associated with higher prevalence of hypertension, the evidence is inconclusive on its influence on the emerging pattern in Africa. This meta-analysis is conducted to pool the available evidence to inform future research and interventions. METHODS: Articles published through May 2018 were systematically searched in PubMed, Scopus and EMBASE databases. Studies were assessed for inclusion by two independent researchers. Six models were used to assess the effect of angiotensin converting enzyme deletion-insertion gene polymorphism. Heterogeneity and publication bias were tested and sensitivity analysis was carried out. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were measured for pooled effect. Both random effect and fixed effect models were used, whilst the frequency of DD, II and DI genotypes were computed and compared. RESULT: Patients with D allele were 1.49 times more likely to develop essential hypertension compared with patients who carry the I allele (OR:1.49; CI:1.07, 2.07). Similarly, patients who had homozygous co-dominance genotype DD (i.e., DD vs II) were at a 2.17 times higher risk of essential hypertension compared to the co-dominant genotype II (OR:2.17, CI:1.79, 3.18), dominant model (I.e., DD+ID vs II) (OR:1.48; CI:1.03, 2.12), and recessive model (OR:1.64; CI:1.03, 2.61). On subgroup analysis, participants from Sub-Saharan Africa were more genetically susceptible to hypertension compared to their North Africa counterparts. There was no publication bias found, but there was high to moderate heterogeneity. CONCLUSION: ACE I/D polymorphism is associated with essential hypertension in Africa in the allele contrast model, as well as the dominant, recessive and homozygous codominance model. On subgroup analysis, ACE I/D was associated with essential hypertension in patients from Sub-Saharan Africa but not in North Africa. A future large scale study, which includes different ethnic groups, is recommended.

Comparative effectiveness of antihypertensive drugs prescribed in Ethiopian healthcare practice: A pilot prospective, randomized, open label study.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has been highly suggestive that patients of African ancestry are less responsive to beta-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors. However, clinical practice within Ethiopia has continued to recommend all drugs for treatment of hypertension despite the lack of evidentiary support. Therefore this study aims to compare the effectiveness of the three major antihypertensive drugs currently prescribed in an Ethiopian health care setting to further the potential for evidence based prescribing practices. METHODS: A prospective, randomized, open label comparative study was used to determine the mean reduction in blood pressure (primary outcome) and assess cardiovascular events (secondary outcomes) among patients receiving one or more of three common antihypertensive drugs (i.e., nifedipine, hydrochlorothiazide, and enalapril) in routine clinical practice between November 2016 and April 2017. Patients were followed for three months. Analysis was based on an intention-to-treat approach. One way analysis of covariance was used to compare the difference in therapeutic effectiveness in reducing blood pressure. RESULT: A total of 141 patients were randomized to one of three recipient groups-nifedipine (n = 47), enalapril (n = 47) or hydrochlorothiazide (n = 47). Three months after randomization, 44 patients in each group completed the follow-up. Patients randomized to nifedipine had significantly higher mean reduction in systolic blood pressure than those randomized to enalapril(p = 0.003) or hydrochlorothiazide(p = 0.036). The mean reduction in systolic blood pressure was -37.35(CI:-40, -34.2) in the nifedipine group; -30.3(CI: -33.5, -27.1) in patients receiving enalapril; and -32.1(CI:-35, -29.3) in patients assigned hydrochlorothiazide. However, nifedipine did not have a significance difference in reduction of mean diastolic blood pressure compared than those receiving enalapril (p = 0.57) or hydrochlorthiazide (p = 0.99). CONCLUSION: This study revealed that amongst the three drugs nifedipine was found to be the most effective drug in reduction of systolic blood pressure. Hydrochlorothiazide and enalapril did not show a difference in reduction of mean blood pressure. Further, long term randomized trials are highly recommended to inform revision of Ethiopia-centric hypertension treatment guidelines.

Low birth weight and macrosomia in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: who are the mothers at risk?

BACKGROUND: Infant birth weight, which is classified into low birth weight, normal birth weight and macrosomia, is associated with short and long-term health consequences, such as neonatal mortality and chronic disease in life. Macrosomia and low birth weight are double burden problems in developing counties, such as Ethiopia, but the paucity of evidence has made it difficult to assess the extent of this situation. As a result there has been inconsistency in the reported prevalence of low birth weight and macrosomia in Ethiopia. This study aimed to determine the incidence and predictors of low birth weight and macrosomia in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. METHOD: We conducted a cross-sectional survey among a cohort of 1152 neonates delivered in Tigray Region at randomly selected hospitals between April and July 2014. We used the birth weight category described previously as an outcome variable. Data were collected using structured questionnaire by midwives. We entered and analyzed data using STATA™ Version 11.0. Data were described using a frequency, percentage, relative risk ratio, and 95% confidence interval. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to identify independent predictors of low birth weight and macrosomia. RESULT: In this study, we found a 10.5% and 6.68% incidence of low birth weight and macrosomia, respectively. Seventy (57.8%) of all low birth weight neonates were term births. The predictors for low birth weight were: early marriage (<18 year) (RRR: 0.59, CI: 0.35-0.97); rural residence (RRR: 0.53, CI: 0.32-0.9); prematurity (RRR: 15.4, CI: 9.18-25.9); no antenatal follow-up (RRR: 6.78, CI: 2.39-19.25); and female sex (RRR: 1.77, CI: 1.13-2.77). Predictors for macrosomia were: female gender (RRR: 0.58, CI: 0.35-0.9); high body mass index (RRR: 5.0, CI: 1.56-16); post-maturity (RRR: 2.23, CI: 1.06-4.6); and no maternal complication (RRR: 0.46, CI: 0.27-0.8). CONCLUSION: In this study, we found gestational age and gender of the neonate to be common risk factors for both low birth weight and macrosomia. Strengthening antenatal follow up, prevention of pre and post maturity, controlling body mass index, and improving socioeconomic status of mothers are recommendations to prevent the double burden (low birth weight and macrosomia) and associated short and long-term consequences.

Effect of ivabradine on cardiovascular outcomes in patients with stable angina: meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Although there are established drugs for treatment of cardiovascular diseases, due to adverse effects these drugs may not be clinically applicable to all patients. Recent trends have seen the emergence of drugs which act on funny current channels to induce selective heart rate reduction. Ivabradine is one such drug developed for coronary artery disease and heart failure. There is inconsistent evidence about the effect of this selective inhibitor in reduction of cardiovascular related mortality and morbidity. Such an inconsistency warrants the need for a meta-analysis to consider the effectiveness and efficacy of Ivabradine in the treatment of coronary artery disease and heart failure. METHODS: Randomized controlled trials with a minimum follow-up period of one year were searched in Pub Med/Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials published between 1980 and 2016.Each eligible study was assessed for risk of bias by using the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment tool. The outcomes assessed in this study included: all cause mortality, cardiovascular-related mortality, hospitalization for new or worsening heart failure, and adverse events. Subgroup analysis and publication bias were assessed. We used Mantel-Haenszel method for random-effects. Analysis was done using RevMan5.1™.This study was registered in PROSPERO as [PROSPERO 2016:CRD42016035597]. RESULT: Three trials with a total of 36,577 participants met the meta-analysis criteria. Pooled analysis showed that ivabradine is not effective in reducing cardiovascular deaths (OR: 1.02; CI:0.91-1.15,P = 0.74), all-cause mortality (OR:1.00; CI:0.91-1.10,P = 0.98), coronary revascularization (OR: 0.93, CI: 0.77-1.11, P = 0.41) and hospital admission for worsening of heart failure (OR: 0.94, CI: 0.71-1.25, P = 0.69). However, the drug was found to significantly increase adverse events: phosphenes (OR:7.77, CI: 4.4-14.6,P < 0.00001), blurred vision (OR:3.07,CI:2.18-4.32,P < 0.00001), symptomatic bradycardia (OR: 6.23, CI: 4.2-9.26, P < 0.00001), and atrial fibrillation (OR: 1.35, CI: 1.19-1.53, P < 0.0001). Subgroup analysis by duration of follow up on cardiovascular outcomes found that there is no difference in effect of ivabradine depending on the duration of follow up. There was no publication bias in reporting of included studies. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis suggests that ivabradine is not effective in reducing cardiovascular-related morbidity and mortality unless used for specific conditions. On the contrary, the use of this drug was strongly associated with the onset of untoward and new adverse events. This finding strongly supports previous findings and further informs the rational and evidence-informed clinical use of ivabradine.

Cause of neonatal deaths in Northern Ethiopia: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the significant reduction in childhood mortality, neonatal mortality has shown little or no concomitant decline worldwide. The dilemma arises in that the lack of documentation of cause of death in developing countries, where registration of vital events is virtually nonexistent. Understanding of the causes of death in neonates is important to guide public health interventions. The present study identifies the common causes of neonatal death in Ethiopia. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted among neonates born between April 2014 and July 2014 in seven hospitals, in Tigray region, Ethiopia. Mothers were interviewed by midwifes respecting risk factors and infant survival. For neonates who died in hospital, causes of death were extracted from medical records, whereas a verbal autopsy method provided presumptive assignment of cause of death for those infants who died at home. RESULTS: Of the1152 live births, there were 68 deaths (63 per 1000 live births). Two thirds of deaths were attributable to prematurity 23 (34%) or asphyxia 21 (31%). Slight variance was seen between the morality patterns in early and late neonatal periods. In the early neonatal period, 37% were due to prematurity, while asphyxia (35%) was more common in the late neonatal period. All infection-related deaths occurred in neonate-mother dyads from rural areas. CONCLUSION: Prematurity, asphyxia, and infections were the leading causes of neonatal deaths in Tigray region during the study period. Causes of deaths identified during early and late neonatal mortality differed, which clearly indicates the need for responsive and evidence-based interventions and policies.

Pre-term and post-term births: predictors and implications on neonatal mortality in Northern Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Pre-term and post-term births are major determinants of neonatal mortality, including short- and long-term morbidity. In developing countries, where pre-term and post-term births are disproportionately common, the magnitude and underlying causes are not well understood, and evidence is required to design appropriate interventions. This study measured the incidence and identified risk factors of pre-term birth and post-term births in Ethiopia. In addition, it examined the effects of pre-term and post-term birth on neonatal mortality. METHOD: This study is a portion of prospective cohort study conducted on 1152 live births born between April and July 2014 in seven hospitals in Tigray region, Northern Ethiopia. Neonatal mortality and birth outcomes were considered as dependent variables. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and weekly neonatal follow up directed at midwives. Data were described using frequency, percentage, ratio of relative risk (RRR), and 95 % confidence interval (CI). We used multinomial and binary logistic regression to identify independent predictors of birth outcome and neonatal mortality respectively. RESULT: The prevalence of pre-term and post term births was 8.1 % and 6.0 % respectively. Underweight maternal body mass index (RRR: 0.47, CI: 0.22-0.99), medium reported income (RRR: 0.26, CI: 0.12-0.5), length of neonate (RRR: 0.05, CI: 0.01-0.41), and multiple births (RRR: 2.86, CI: 1.4-5.650) were associated with pre-term birth. Predictors for post-term birth were overweight maternal body mass index (RRR: 3.88, CI: 1.01-15.05), high reported income mothers (RRR: 2.17, CI:1.1-4.3), as well as unmarried, widowed and divorced marital status (RRR:2.43, CI:1.02-5.80). With regards to binary logistic regression, pre-term birth (RR: 2.45, CI: 1.45-4.04) was an independent predictor for neonatal mortality, but this was not true for post-term births (RR: 0.45, CI: 0.07-2.96). CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic and proximate factors are important predictors for pre-term and post-term births. Empowering women in terms of income status and controlling body mass index within the normal range are recommended. In addition, early detection and close antenatal follow-ups for mothers, who are at risk before and during pregnancy, are necessary to prevent both pre-term and post-term births.

Survival of neonates and predictors of their mortality in Tigray region, Northern Ethiopia: prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Neonatal mortality accounts for an estimated 2.8 million deaths worldwide, which constitutes 44 % of under-5-mortality and 60 % of infant mortality. Neonatal mortality predictors vary by country with the availability and quality of health care. Therefore, aim of this study was to estimate survival time and identify predictors of neonatal mortality in Tigray region, northern Ethiopia. METHOD: A prospective cohort study design was carried out among a cohort of neonates delivered in seven hospitals of Tigray from April to July, 2014 and followed up for a total of 28 days. Data were collected by interviewing mothers using structured questionnaires and assessments of the neonate and mothers by midwives. Kaplan-Meier, Log rank test and Cox-proportional hazard regressions were used. STATA V-11 program was used for data entry, cleaning and analysis. RESULTS: From 1152 neonates, 68 died (neonatal mortality rate 62.5/1000 live births), 73.52 % of the neonates died within 7 days, 60 were lost to follow-up and the percentage of survival at 28 days was 93.96 % (95 % CI: 92.4, 95.2 %). Predictors of neonatal mortality were: normal birth weight (AHR: 0.45, 95 % CI: 0.24, 0.84), not initiating exclusive breastfeeding (AHR: 7.5, 95 % CI: 3.77, 15.05), neonatal complications (AHR: 0.14, 95 % CI 0.07, 0.29), maternal complications (AHR: 0.37, 95 % CI: 0.22, 0.63) and proximity (AHR: 2.5, 95 % CI: 1.29, 4.91). CONCLUSION: Neonatal mortality is unacceptably very high. Managing complications and low birth weight, initiating exclusive breast feeding, improving quality of services and ensuring a continuum of care are recommended to increase survival of neonates.