Potential Biases in Test-Negative Design Studies of COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Arising from the Inclusion of Asymptomatic Individuals.

The test-negative design (TND) is a popular method for evaluating vaccine effectiveness (VE). A "classical" TND study includes symptomatic individuals tested for the disease targeted by the vaccine to estimate VE against symptomatic infection. However, recent applications of the TND have attempted to estimate VE against infection by including all tested individuals, regardless of their symptoms. In this article, we use directed acyclic graphs and simulations to investigate potential biases in TND studies of COVID-19 VE arising from the use of this "alternative" approach, particularly when applied during periods of widespread testing. We show that the inclusion of asymptomatic individuals can potentially lead to collider stratification bias, uncontrolled confounding by health and healthcare-seeking behaviors (HSBs), and differential outcome misclassification. While our focus is on the COVID-19 setting, the issues discussed here may also be relevant in the context of other infectious diseases. This may be particularly true in scenarios where there is either a high baseline prevalence of infection, a strong correlation between HSBs and vaccination, different testing practices for vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, or settings where both the vaccine under study attenuates symptoms of infection and diagnostic accuracy is modified by the presence of symptoms.

Risk of transmission of HIV to infants during breast/chest feeding when mothers/birthing parents living with HIV are on antiretroviral therapy: a protocol for a rapid review.

INTRODUCTION: HIV is a major public health issue affecting millions globally. Women and girls account for 46% of new HIV infections in 2022 and approximately 1.3 million females become pregnant every year. Vertical transmission of HIV from persons living with HIV (PLHIV) to infants may occur through different modalities, such as through breast/chest feeding. Notably, 82% of PLHIV who chose to breast/chest feed are on antiretroviral therapy (ART) when feeding their infants. Precise estimates of the risk of postpartum transmission to infants during breast/chest feeding at varying viral load levels remain a significant gap in the literature. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A rapid systematic search of electronic databases will be conducted from January 2005 to the present, including Medline, Embase and Global Health. The objective of this rapid review is to explore and assess the available evidence on the effect of varying viral load levels on the risk of HIV transmission to infants during breast/chest feeding when the birthing or gestational parent living with HIV is on ART. Study characteristics will be summarised and reported to support the narrative summary of the findings. The focus will be on the absolute risk of HIV transmission from birthing parent to infant during chest/breast feeding. The findings will also be stratified by month, including the risk of HIV transmission for 6 months and greater than 6 months postpartum. We will ascertain the risk of bias using A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews 2, Quality of Prognosis Studies and Downs and Black checklist for the appropriate study type. A summary score will not be calculated, rather the strengths and limitations of the studies will be narratively described. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: No human subjects will be involved in the research. The findings of this rapid review will inform a future systematic review and will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, presentations and conferences. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42024499393.

Test negative design for vaccine effectiveness estimation in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic methodology review.

BACKGROUND: During the height of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the test-negative design (TND) was extensively used in many countries to evaluate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). Typically, the TND involves the recruitment of care-seeking individuals who meet a common clinical case definition. All participants are then tested for an infection of interest. OBJECTIVES: To review and describe the variation in TND methodology, and disclosure of potential biases, as applied to the evaluation of COVID-19 VE during the early vaccination phase of the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review by searching four biomedical databases using defined keywords to identify peer-reviewed articles published between January 1, 2020, and January 25, 2022. We included only original articles that employed a TND to estimate VE of COVID-19 vaccines in which cases and controls were evaluated based on SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test results. RESULTS: We identified 96 studies, 35 of which met the defined criteria. Most studies were from North America (16 studies) and targeted the general population (28 studies). Outcome case definitions were based primarily on COVID-19-like symptoms; however, several papers did not consider or specify symptoms. Cases and controls had the same inclusion criteria in only half of the studies. Most studies relied upon administrative or hospital databases assembled for a different (non-evaluation) clinical purpose. Potential unmeasured confounding (20 studies), misclassification of current SARS-CoV-2 infection (16 studies) and selection bias (10 studies) were disclosed as limitations by some studies. CONCLUSION: We observed potentially meaningful deviations from the validated design in the application of the TND during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Neurological involvement in hospitalized children with SARS-CoV-2 infection: a multinational study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Neurological involvement associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection is increasingly recognized. However, the specific characteristics and prevalence in pediatric patients remain unclear. The objective of this study was to describe the neurological involvement in a multinational cohort of hospitalized pediatric patients with SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: This was a multicenter observational study of children <18 years of age with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or multisystemic inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) and laboratory evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children, admitted to 15 tertiary hospitals/healthcare centers in Canada, Costa Rica, and Iran February 2020-May 2021. Descriptive statistical analyses were performed and logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with neurological involvement. RESULTS: One-hundred forty-seven (21%) of 697 hospitalized children with SARS-CoV-2 infection had neurological signs/symptoms. Headache (n = 103), encephalopathy (n = 28), and seizures (n = 30) were the most reported. Neurological signs/symptoms were significantly associated with ICU admission (OR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.15-2.55; p = 0.008), satisfaction of MIS-C criteria (OR: 3.71, 95% CI: 2.46-5.59; p < 0.001), fever during hospitalization (OR: 2.15, 95% CI: 1.46-3.15; p < 0.001), and gastrointestinal involvement (OR: 2.31, 95% CI: 1.58-3.40; p < 0.001). Non-headache neurological manifestations were significantly associated with ICU admission (OR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.08-3.42; p = 0.026), underlying neurological disorders (OR: 2.98, 95% CI: 1.49-5.97, p = 0.002), and a history of fever prior to hospital admission (OR: 2.76, 95% CI: 1.58-4.82; p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: In this study, approximately 21% of hospitalized children with SARS-CoV-2 infection had neurological signs/symptoms. Future studies should focus on pathogenesis and long-term outcomes in these children.

Diagnostic accuracy of qPCR and microscopy for cutaneous leishmaniasis in rural Ecuador: A Bayesian latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND: Clinical and laboratory diagnosis of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is hampered by under-ascertainment of direct microscopy. METHODS: This study compared the diagnostic accuracy of qPCR on DNA extracted from filter paper to the accuracy of direct smear slide microscopy in participants presenting with a cutaneous lesion suspected of leishmaniasis to 16 rural healthcare centers in the Ecuadorian Amazon and Pacific regions, from January 2019 to June 2021. We used Bayesian latent class analysis to estimate test sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios (LR), and predictive values (PV) with their 95% credible intervals (95%CrI). The impact of sociodemographic and clinical characteristics on predictive values was assessed as a secondary objective. RESULTS: Of 320 initially included participants, paired valid test results were available and included in the diagnostic accuracy analysis for 129 from the Amazon and 185 from the Pacific region. We estimated sensitivity of 68% (95%CrI 49% to 82%) and 73% (95%CrI 73% to 83%) for qPCR, and 51% (95%CrI 36% to 66%) and 76% (95%CrI 65% to 86%) for microscopy in the Amazon and Pacific region, respectively. In the Amazon, with an estimated disease prevalence among participants of 73%, negative PV for qPCR was 54% (95%CrI 5% to 77%) and 44% (95%CrI 4% to 65%) for microscopy. In the Pacific, (prevalence 88%) the negative PV was 34% (95%CrI 3% to 58%) and 37% (95%CrI 3% to 63%). The addition of qPCR parallel to microscopy in the Amazon increases the observed prevalence from 38% to 64% (+26 (95%CrI 19 to 34) percentage points). CONCLUSION: The accuracy of either qPCR on DNA extracted from filter paper or microscopy for CL diagnosis as a stand-alone test seems to be unsatisfactory and region-dependent. We recommend further studies to confirm the clinically relevant increment found in the diagnostic yield due to the addition of qPCR.

SARS-CoV-2 infection prevention and control measures in Belgian schools between December 2020 and June 2021 and their association with seroprevalence: a cross-sectional analysis of a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To protect school-aged children from the potential consequences of a new viral infection, public health authorities recommended to implement infection prevention and control (IPC) measures in school settings. Few studies evaluated the implementation of these measures and their effect on SARS-CoV-2 infection rates among pupils and staff. The aim of this study was to describe the implementation of infection prevention and control (IPC) measures in Belgian schools and assess its relation to the prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among pupils and staff. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in a representative sample of primary and secondary schools in Belgium between December 2020 and June 2021. The implementation of IPC measures in schools was assessed using a questionnaire. Schools were classified according to their compliance with the implementation of IPC measures as 'poor', 'moderate' or 'thorough'. Saliva samples were collected from pupils and staff to determine the SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence. To assess the association between the strength of implementation of IPC measures and SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among pupils and staff, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis using the data collected in December 2020/January 2021. RESULTS: A variety of IPC measures (ventilation, hygiene and physical distancing) was implemented by more than 60% of schools, with most attention placed on hygiene measures. In January 2021, poor implementation of IPC measures was associated with an increase in anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence among pupils from 8.6% (95%CI: 4.5 - 16.6) to 16.7% (95%CI: 10.2 - 27.4) and staff from 11.5% (95%CI: 8.1 - 16.4) to 17.6% (95%CI: 11.5 - 27.0). This association was only statistically significant for the assessment of all IPC measures together in the population comprised of pupils and staff. CONCLUSIONS: Belgian schools were relatively compliant with recommended IPC measures at the school level. Higher SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among pupils and staff was found in schools with poor implementation of IPC measures, compared to schools with thorough implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered under the NCT04613817 ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier on November 3, 2020.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and determinants for salivary seropositivity among pupils and school staff: a prospective cohort study.

Representative school data on SARS-CoV-2 past-infection are scarce, and differences between pupils and staff remain ambiguous. We performed a nation-wide prospective seroprevalence study among pupils and staff over time and in relation to determinants of infection using Poisson regression and generalised estimating equations. A cluster random sample was selected with allocation by region and sociodemographic (SES) background. Surveys and saliva samples were collected in December 2020, March, and June 2021, and also in October and December 2021 for primary pupils. We recruited 885 primary and 569 secondary pupils and 799 staff in 84 schools. Cumulative seroprevalence (95% CI) among primary pupils increased from 11.0% (7.6; 15.9) at baseline to 60.4% (53.4; 68.3) in December 2021. Group estimates were similar at baseline; however, in June they were significantly higher among primary staff (38.9% (32.5; 46.4)) compared to pupils and secondary staff (24.2% (20.3; 28.8)). Infections were asymptomatic in 48-56% of pupils and 28% of staff. Seropositivity was associated with individual SES in pupils, and with school level, school SES and language network in staff in June. Associations with behavioural characteristics were inconsistent. Seroconversion rates increased two- to four-fold after self-reported high-risk contacts, especially with adults. Seroprevalence studies using non-invasive sampling can inform public health management.

Proactive Contact Tracing.

The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred an unprecedented demand for interventions that can reduce disease spread without excessively restricting daily activity, given negative impacts on mental health and economic outcomes. Digital contact tracing (DCT) apps have emerged as a component of the epidemic management toolkit. Existing DCT apps typically recommend quarantine to all digitally-recorded contacts of test-confirmed cases. Over-reliance on testing may, however, impede the effectiveness of such apps, since by the time cases are confirmed through testing, onward transmissions are likely to have occurred. Furthermore, most cases are infectious over a short period; only a subset of their contacts are likely to become infected. These apps do not fully utilize data sources to base their predictions of transmission risk during an encounter, leading to recommendations of quarantine to many uninfected people and associated slowdowns in economic activity. This phenomenon, commonly termed as "pingdemic," may additionally contribute to reduced compliance to public health measures. In this work, we propose a novel DCT framework, Proactive Contact Tracing (PCT), which uses multiple sources of information (e.g. self-reported symptoms, received messages from contacts) to estimate app users' infectiousness histories and provide behavioral recommendations. PCT methods are by design proactive, predicting spread before it occurs. We present an interpretable instance of this framework, the Rule-based PCT algorithm, designed via a multi-disciplinary collaboration among epidemiologists, computer scientists, and behavior experts. Finally, we develop an agent-based model that allows us to compare different DCT methods and evaluate their performance in negotiating the trade-off between epidemic control and restricting population mobility. Performing extensive sensitivity analysis across user behavior, public health policy, and virological parameters, we compare Rule-based PCT to i) binary contact tracing (BCT), which exclusively relies on test results and recommends a fixed-duration quarantine, and ii) household quarantine (HQ). Our results suggest that both BCT and Rule-based PCT improve upon HQ, however, Rule-based PCT is more efficient at controlling spread of disease than BCT across a range of scenarios. In terms of cost-effectiveness, we show that Rule-based PCT pareto-dominates BCT, as demonstrated by a decrease in Disability Adjusted Life Years, as well as Temporary Productivity Loss. Overall, we find that Rule-based PCT outperforms existing approaches across a varying range of parameters. By leveraging anonymized infectiousness estimates received from digitally-recorded contacts, PCT is able to notify potentially infected users earlier than BCT methods and prevent onward transmissions. Our results suggest that PCT-based applications could be a useful tool in managing future epidemics.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in technology-dependent children: a multicenter case series.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to describe the clinical course and outcomes in children with technology dependence (TD) hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: Seventeen pediatric hospitals (15 Canadian and one each in Iran and Costa Rica) included children up to 17 years of age admitted February 1, 2020, through May 31, 2021, with detection of SARS-CoV-2. For those with TD, data were collected on demographics, clinical course and outcome. RESULTS: Of 691 children entered in the database, 42 (6%) had TD of which 22 had feeding tube dependence only, 9 were on supplemental oxygen only, 3 had feeding tube dependence and were on supplemental oxygen, 2 had a tracheostomy but were not ventilated, 4 were on non-invasive ventilation, and 2 were on mechanical ventilation prior to admission. Three of 42 had incidental SARS-CoV-2 infection. Two with end-stage underlying conditions were transitioned to comfort care and died. Sixteen (43%) of the remaining 37 cases required increased respiratory support from baseline due to COVID-19 while 21 (57%) did not. All survivors were discharged home. CONCLUSION: Children with TD appear to have an increased risk of COVID-19 hospitalization. However, in the absence of end-stage chronic conditions, all survived to discharge.