Risk assessment tool floundering? Let's ask the client to self-predict.

Self-prediction by criminal justice involved clients has not been typically implemented in risk assessment procedures, yet clients have unique self-knowledge that may add to the assessment of risk. The Transition Inventory is an eight scale self-prediction measure that addresses areas that are a precursor to antisocial and criminal activity (e.g., "Drugs or alcohol will be a problem for me"). The Transition Inventory was administered to 131 paroled clients (primary drug-related offenses), 104 of whom were of minority/ethnic status. Predictive validity was demonstrated by the Transition Inventory incrementally predicting supervision failure. Individual scale construct validity was demonstrated by predicting later assessed corresponding measures, with the Leisure scale having the most robust predictive relationship. Self-prediction may promote greater predictability and stronger client engagement in the assessment process.

A cross-validation of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R) within a correctional sample.

The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R) was developed to replace the original VRAG based on an updated and larger sample with an extended follow-up period. Using a sample of 120 adult male correctional offenders, the current study examined the interrater reliability and predictive and comparative validity of the VRAG-R to the VRAG, the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised, the Statistical Information on Recidivism-Revised, and the Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimate over a follow-up period of up to 22 years postrelease. The VRAG-R achieved moderate levels of predictive validity for both general and violent recidivism that was sustained over time as evidenced by time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Further, moderate predictive validity was evident when the Antisociality item was both removed and then subsequently replaced with a substitute measure of antisociality. Results of the individual item analyses for the VRAG and VRAG-R revealed that only a small number of items are significant predictors of violent recidivism. The results of this study have implications for the application of the VRAG-R to the assessment of violent recidivism among correctional offenders. (PsycINFO Database Record

The predictive validity of the Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates Scale (TTV) in a long-term follow-up of violent offenders.

Over the past few decades many structured risk appraisal measures have been created to respond to this need. The Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates Scale (TTV) is a measure designed to integrate both an actuarial estimate of violence risk with critical risk management indicators. The current study examined interrater reliability and the predictive validity of the TTV in a sample of violent offenders (n = 120) over an average follow-up period of 17.75 years. The TTV was retrospectively scored and compared with the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Statistical Information of Recidivism Scale-Revised (SIR-R1), and the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R). Approximately 53% of the sample reoffended violently, with an overall recidivism rate of 74%. Although the VRAG was the strongest predictor of violent recidivism in the sample, the Actuarial Risk Estimates (ARE) scale of the TTV produced a small, significant effect. The Risk Management Indicators (RMI) produced nonsignificant area under the curve (AUC) values for all recidivism outcomes. Comparisons between measures using AUC values and Cox regression showed that there were no statistical differences in predictive validity. The results of this research will be used to inform the validation and reliability literature on the TTV, and will contribute to the overall risk assessment literature. (PsycINFO Database Record

Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates: a validation study of an integrated-actuarial risk assessment instrument.

This study is an initial validation study of the Two-Tiered Violence Risk Estimates instrument (TTV), a violence risk appraisal instrument designed to support an integrated-actuarial approach to violence risk assessment. The TTV was scored retrospectively from file information on a sample of violent offenders. Construct validity was examined by comparing the TTV with instruments that have shown utility to predict violence that were prospectively scored: The Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and Lifestyle Criminality Screening Form (LCSF). Predictive validity was examined through a long-term follow-up of 12.4 years with a sample of 78 incarcerated offenders. Results show the TTV to be highly correlated with the HCR-20 and LCSF. The base rate for violence over the follow-up period was 47.4%, and the TTV was equally predictive of violent recidivism relative to the HCR-20 and LCSF. Discussion centers on the advantages of an integrated-actuarial approach to the assessment of violence risk.

Intimate partner violence intervention for high-risk offenders.

This study is an evaluation of pre-postprogram change associated with the High Intensity Family Violence Prevention Program (HIFVPP) for incarcerated male offenders who are perpetrators of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV). The sample consists of 159 male offenders who participated in the HIFVPP while incarcerated. Participants were assessed pre-, mid-, and postprogram using an assessment battery consisting of self-report questionnaires and facilitator-rated evaluation scales. Results found uniform and significant (p < .001) improvement for pre- and postprogram change in the self-report questionnaires and in the facilitator ratings. A positive improvement in motivation, whether assessed by the participant or facilitator, was associated with improvement in program outcomes and significant within, between, and interaction effects were found when participant program performance over time was compared among grouped postprogram ratings of motivation. The implication for the efficacy of addressing offender motivation to change in IPV interventions is discussed.

Treating offenders with mental illness: a research synthesis.

The purpose of this research synthesis was to examine treatment effects across studies of the service providers to offenders with mental illness. Meta-analytic techniques were applied to 26 empirical studies obtained from a review of 12,154 research documents. Outcomes of interest in this review included measures of both psychiatric and criminal functioning. Although meta-analytic results are based on a small sample of available studies, results suggest interventions with offenders with mental illness effectively reduced symptoms of distress, improving offender's ability to cope with their problems, and resulted in improved behavioral markers including institutional adjustment and behavioral functioning. Furthermore, interventions specifically designed to meet the psychiatric and criminal justice needs of offenders with mental illness have shown to produce significant reductions in psychiatric and criminal recidivism. Finally, this review highlighted admission policies and treatment strategies (e.g., use of homework), which produced the most positive benefits. Results of this research synthesis are directly relevant for service providers in both criminal justice and mental health systems (e.g., psychiatric hospitals) as well as community settings by informing treatment strategies for the first time, which are based on empirical evidence. In addition, the implications of these results to policy makers tasked with the responsibility of designating services for this special needs population are highlighted.

An evaluation of intimate partner violence intervention with incarcerated offenders.

The following study is an evaluation of the Moderate Intensity Family Violence Prevention Program (MIFVPP). The sample consisted of 298 male federal offenders who participated in the MIFVPP while incarcerated or on release within the community. Participants were assessed pre-, mid-, and postprogram using an assessment battery consisting of self-report questionnaires and facilitator-rated evaluation scales. Results of the study found uniform and significant (p < .001) improvement for pre and post program change in the self-report questionnaires and in the facilitator ratings. A positive improvement in motivation, whether assessed by the participant or facilitator, was associated with improvement in program outcomes and significant within, between, and interaction effects were found when participant program performance over time was compared among grouped postprogram ratings of motivation. The implication for the efficacy of addressing offender motivation to change in intimate partner violence (IPV) interventions is discussed.

The effect of discordance among violence and general recidivism risk estimates on predictive accuracy.

INTRODUCTION: Previous research has shown that the prediction of short-term inpatient violence is negatively affected when clinicians' inter-rater agreement is low and when confidence in the estimate of risk is low. This study examined the effect of discordance between risk assessment instruments used to predict long-term general and violence risk in offenders. METHODS: The Psychopathy Checklist - Revised (PCL-R), Level of Service Inventory - Revised (LSI-R), Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism (GSIR) were the four risk-prediction instruments used to predict post-release general and violent recidivism within a sample of 209 offenders. RESULTS: The findings lend empirical support to the assumption that predictive accuracy is threatened where there is discordance between risk estimates. Discordance between instruments had the impact of reducing predictive accuracy for all instruments except the GSIR. Further, the influence of discordance was shown to be greater on certain instruments over others. Discordance had a moderating effect on both the PCL-R and LSI-R but not on the VRAG and GSIR. CONCLUSIONS: There is a distinct advantage when attempting to predict recidivism to employing measures such as the LSI-R, which includes dynamic variables and intervention-related criminogenic domains, over a measure purely of fixed characteristics, such as the GSIR; however, if there is discordance between the risk estimates, caution should be exercised and more reliance on the more static historically based instrument may be indicated.

Impression management and self-report among violent offenders.

Offenders are assumed by many to employ socially desirable responding (SDR) response styles when completing self-report measures. Contrary to expectations, prior research has shown that accounting for SDR in self-report measures of antisocial constructs does not improve the relationship with outcome. Despite this, many self-report measures reliably predict future criminal outcome criteria. The present research examines the relationship of SDR (self-deception and impression management) with self-reported antisocial attitudes and the outcome of criminal recidivism in a sample of violent offenders. Offenders high on impression management reported lower antisocial attitudes. However, when impression management was statistically partialed from antisocial attitudes, the relationship with recidivism tended to diminish, though not to a statistically significant degree. This finding, though hypothesized based on previous empirical findings, is contrary to the theoretical assumption that controlling for SDR should improve the relationship of self-report with outcome. The discussion centers on the implications of routinely removing impression management from self-report.

An evaluation of the Psychache Scale on an offender population.

This study examined the generalizability of a self-report measure of psychache to an offender population. The factor structure, construct validity, and criterion validity of the Psychache Scale was assessed on 136 male prison inmates. The results showed the Psychache Scale has a single underlying factor structure and to be strongly associated with measures of depression and hopelessness and moderately associated with psychiatric symptoms and the criterion variable of a history of prior suicide attempts. The variables of depression, hopelessness, and psychiatric symptoms all contributed unique variance to psychache. Discussion centers on psychache's theoretical application to the prediction of suicide.

A coffee can, factor analysis, and prediction of antisocial behavior: the structure of criminal risk.

The predictive accuracy of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised, Level of Service Inventory-Revised, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism were compared to four instruments randomly generated from the total pool of original items. None of the four original instruments better predicted post-release failure than the four randomly generated instruments. These results suggest two conclusions: (a) the instruments are only measuring criminal risk, and (b) no single instrument has captured sufficient risk assessment theory to result in better prediction than randomly derived instruments measuring criminal risk. A two-stage factor analysis was completed on 1614 cases. This analysis of the risk items indicated a 4-factor solution and all 4 factors were equal to the original instruments in predicting post-release failure. Thus, the original instruments did not improve prediction over randomly structured scales, nor did the restructuring of items improve risk assessment, suggesting substantial deficiencies in the conceptualization of risk assessment and instrumentation. We argue that developing a risk-based construct, which involves hypothesis testing and an explanation of behavior, is the optimal method to advance risk assessment within the criminal justice and mental health systems. Such an approach would provide targeted areas for clinical intervention that are salient to risk.

Advances in the assessment and prediction of interpersonal violence.

This article underscores the weakness of clinical judgment as a mechanism for prediction with examples from other areas in the psychological literature. Clinical judgment has as its Achilles'heel the reliance on a person to incorporate multiple pieces of information while overcoming human judgment errors--a feat insurmountable thus far. The actuarial approach to risk assessment has overcome many of the weaknesses of clinical judgment and has been shown to be a much superior method. Nonetheless, the static/historical nature of the risk factors associated with most actuarial approaches is limiting. Advances in risk prediction will be found in part in the development of dynamic actuarial instruments that will measure both static/historical and changeable risk factors. The dynamic risk factors can be reevaluated on an ongoing basis, and it is proposed that the level of change in dynamic factors necessary to represent a significant change in overall risk will be an interactive function with static risk factors.

The antisocial attitudes and associates of sex offenders.

INTRODUCTION: Meta-analyses have demonstrated that attitudes and associates (peer group behaviour) are among the best predictors of antisocial behaviour in offender populations. Research on sex offender attitudes has typically focused on sex-related content and not antisocial attitudes in general. This study investigates the antisocial attitudes of sex offenders by comparing them with non-sex offenders on responses to the Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA). METHOD: The MCAA comprises two parts. Part A is a quantified self-report measure of criminal friends. Part B contains four attitude scales: Violence, Entitlement, Antisocial Intent and Associates. Ninety sex offenders were compared with 119 nonsex offenders on their endorsement of the MCAA and criminal history. RESULTS: Sex offenders endorsed fewer antisocial attitudes, reported fewer criminal friends and had fewer incarcerations than did non-sex offenders. Rapists endorsed antisocial attitudes more than did child molesters and incest offenders. However, these differences disappeared on controlling for age. A finding of fewer previous incarcerations among sex offenders was robust even controlling for age. CONCLUSION: The MCAA appears to be a reliable and valid instrument with sex offender samples. General antisocial attitudes appear to have a similar relationship with criminal history for both sex offenders and non-sex offenders, and should not be ignored in future studies or clinical practice. While a general sense of entitlement was not associated with sex offending per se, its stronger association with incarceration among sex offenders than non-sex offenders might suggest that this has the potential for identifying an important, perhaps more serious sub-group of sex offenders.

The generalized instructional set of the Criminal Attribution Inventory (CRAI): socially desirable responding and faking.

Accurate assessment of criminal attributions can assist in explaining crime and identifying offender treatment targets. The current study examines the relationship between a new method of assessing the cognition of criminal attributes, the Criminal Attribution Inventory (CRAI) and a measure of socially desirable responding. 300 participants including incarcerated offenders, released offenders, sex offenders, and university students participated in the current study. Results indicate minimal relationships between socially desirable responding and the CRAI. In a fake-good testing situation, the faking index had appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive power in identifying fake-good responses. The CRAI's instructional set of general observation as opposed to self-representation appears to limit socially desirable responding and also allows the CRAI to be administered to nonoffender populations.

Predictive validity despite social desirability: evidence for the robustness of self-report among offenders.

INTRODUCTION: Many professionals believe that self-report questionnaires used to predict recidivism have a low validity. The aim of the present study was to investigate the assumption that the validity of self-report is vulnerable to self-presentation biases in offender samples. METHOD: The participants consisted of 124 male offenders who volunteered to complete the Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ). RESULTS: Lower scores on measures of social desirability were significantly associated with higher levels of risk (as measured by self-report and a rated actuarial instrument) and a higher likelihood to re-offend. Further, stepwise regression analysis revealed that social desirability added significantly unique variance in the prediction of violent recidivism. DISCUSSION: The authors propose that impression management may be an enduring person-based characteristic within an offender sample rather than a situationally determined response style. The variance associated with this characterological information is proposed to be the source of the unique predictive variance.

Antisocial constructs in predicting institutional violence among violent offenders and child molesters.

This study investigated the ability of self-reported antisocial constructs to predict serious institutional infractions among a correctional sample of child molesters (n = 69) and violent offenders (n = 138). Each group had significant predictors, but the predictors differed between the two groups. Interpersonal problems accounted for significant incremental variance after age in the relationship with institutional violence for child molesters. With the violent offender group, alienation and impulse expression showed significant incremental variance after accounting for age. Alienation and impulse expression also added to age in the relationship with the function of failure over time for the most institutionally disruptive. Implications for institutional classification and clinical use in an offender population are discussed.

Predicting violent behavior through a static-stable variable lens.

This study examines the differential relationship of criminogenic domains to violent and nonviolent recidivism in a sample of predominantly violent offenders. In addition, the criminogenic domains are examined through a static-stable variable dichotomy. The results support previously published retrospective studies that found different domains associated with violent and nonviolent offending. In addition, the results showed that stable variables add to the prediction of both violent and nonviolent behavior after accounting for the most salient static variables. The results are discussed within the context of improving risk prediction.

Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA): development, factor structure, reliability, and validity.

Recent meta-analysis has demonstrated that attitudes and associates are among the best predictors of antisocial behavior. Despite this finding, there are few psychometrically developed and validated measures of criminal and antisocial attitudes and associates. This study reviews the theoretical and empirical development of the Measures of Criminal Attitudes and Associates (MCAA), which is composed of two parts. Part A is a quantified self-report measure of criminal friends. Part B contains four attitude scales: Violence, Entitlement, Antisocial Intent, and Associates. The MCAA showed reasonable reliability (internal consistency and temporal stability) and appropriate convergent and discriminant validity. Criterion validity was evidenced in the scale's relationship with criminal history variables, and a factor analysis confirmed the four distinct scale domains.