Communicating carabids: Engaging farmers to encourage uptake of integrated pest management.

BACKGROUND: Natural enemy pest control is becoming more desirable as restrictions increase on pesticide use. Carabid beetles are proven agents of natural-enemy pest control (NPC), controlling pests and weeds in crop areas. Agro-ecological measures can be effective for boosting carabid abundance and associated NPC, but the benefits of specific interventions to production are seldom communicated to farmers. We explore pathways to improved NPC by engaging farmers and increasing knowledge about farm management practices (FMPs) beneficial to carabids using engagement materials. We used a questionnaire to measure awareness, beliefs and attitudes to carabids and analysed these within a framework of the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), relative to a control group. RESULTS: We found awareness of carabid predation to be associated with beliefs of pest and weed control efficacy. Within the framework of TPB, we found that current implementation of FMPs was higher if farmers perceived them to be both important for carabids and easy to implement. This was also true for future intention to implement, yet the perceived importance was influenced by engagement materials. Field margins/buffer strips and beetle banks (16% and 13% of responses) were the most favoured by farmers as interventions for carabids. CONCLUSION: The TPB is a valuable tool with which to examine internal elements of farmer behaviour. In this study self-selected participants were influenced by online engagement in a single intervention, proving this approach has the potential to change behaviour. Our results are evidence for the effectiveness of raising awareness of NPC to change attitudes and increase uptake of sustainable practices.

Exploring the effects of land management change on productivity, carbon and nutrient balance: Application of an Ensemble Modelling Approach to the upper River Taw observatory, UK.

Agriculture is challenged to produce healthy food and to contribute to cleaner energy whilst mitigating climate change and protecting ecosystems. To achieve this, policy-driven scenarios need to be evaluated with available data and models to explore trade-offs with robust accounting for the uncertainty in predictions. We developed a novel model ensemble using four complementary state-of-the-art agroecosystems models to explore the impacts of land management change. The ensemble was used to simulate key agricultural and environmental outputs under various scenarios for the upper River Taw observatory, UK. Scenarios assumed (i) reducing livestock production whilst simultaneously increasing the area of arable where it is feasible to cultivate (PG2A), (ii) reducing livestock production whilst simultaneously increasing bioenergy production in areas of the catchment that are amenable to growing bioenergy crops (PG2BE) and (iii) increasing both arable and bioenergy production (PG2A + BE). Our ensemble approach combined model uncertainty using the tower property of expectation and the law of total variance. Results show considerable uncertainty for predicted nutrient losses with different models partitioning the uncertainty into different pathways. Bioenergy crops were predicted to produce greatest yields from Miscanthus in lowland and from SRC-willow (cv. Endurance) in uplands. Each choice of management is associated with trade-offs; e.g. PG2A results in a significant increase of edible calories (6736 Mcal ha-1) but reduced soil C (-4.32 t C ha-1). Model ensembles in the agroecosystem context are difficult to implement due to challenges of model availability and input and output alignment. Despite these challenges, we show that ensemble modelling is a powerful approach for applications such as ours, offering benefits such as capturing structural as well as data uncertainty and allowing greater combinations of variables to be explored. Furthermore, the ensemble provides a robust means for combining uncertainty at different scales and enables us to identify weaknesses in system understanding.

Modelling cassava production and pest management under biotic and abiotic constraints.

KEY MESSAGE: We summarise modelling studies of the most economically important cassava diseases and arthropods, highlighting research gaps where modelling can contribute to the better management of these in the areas of surveillance, control, and host-pest dynamics understanding the effects of climate change and future challenges in modelling. For over 30 years, experimental and theoretical studies have sought to better understand the epidemiology of cassava diseases and arthropods that affect production and lead to considerable yield loss, to detect and control them more effectively. In this review, we consider the contribution of modelling studies to that understanding. We summarise studies of the most economically important cassava pests, including cassava mosaic disease, cassava brown streak disease, the cassava mealybug, and the cassava green mite. We focus on conceptual models of system dynamics rather than statistical methods. Through our analysis we identified areas where modelling has contributed and areas where modelling can improve and further contribute. Firstly, we identify research challenges in the modelling developed for the surveillance, detection and control of cassava pests, and propose approaches to overcome these. We then look at the contributions that modelling has accomplished in the understanding of the interaction and dynamics of cassava and its' pests, highlighting success stories and areas where improvement is needed. Thirdly, we look at the possibility that novel modelling applications can achieve to provide insights into the impacts and uncertainties of climate change. Finally, we identify research gaps, challenges, and opportunities where modelling can develop and contribute for the management of cassava pests, highlighting the recent advances in understanding molecular mechanisms of plant defence.

Communication and building social capital in community supported agriculture.

Community supported agriculture (CSA) schemes (programs) provide an alternative means for obtaining produce, through direct purchase from farms. They are also often driven by a vision of transforming the current mainstream food system and seek to build a community of people who support this vision. Social capital refers to the networks and ties between people and groups and the impact of these ties on access to influence, information, opportunity, and ability to organize. Social capital is built by CSAs and helps foster and stabilize the grassroots agricultural innovations that are needed for the development of sustainable food systems. Using the concept of social capital, we studied communication methods of four CSAs in the UK, examining the interactions between CSAs and their members and within each of their membership groups. We carried out in-depth interviews with 49 CSA members to establish what interactions they had with their CSA and with other members, and analyzed our data thematically to identify the characteristics of interactions that were important to participants. We consider how our research may benefit CSA organizations by enabling them to learn what their members want and to learn about the varied ways in which members conceptualize their experiences of community derived from their membership. We found that the various CSA communication strategies, which consist of frequent and varying virtual and face-to-face interactions, are able to promote development of both bridging and bonding social capital. Overall, there is a desire for social connection in CSA memberships. Furthermore, in CSAs where members can interact easily, there is potential for CSA membership to provide members with communication that is important as a source of both knowledge and social connection. CSAs can maximize both social capital and member satisfaction by using a range of communication media and methods to meet their members' circumstances and preferences.

The potential for soybean to diversify the production of plant-based protein in the UK.

Soybean (Glycine max) offers an important source of plant-based protein. Currently much of Europe's soybean is imported, but there are strong economic and agronomic arguments for boosting local production. Soybean is grown in central and eastern Europe but is less favoured in the North due to climate. We conducted field trials across three seasons and two sites in the UK to test the viability of early-maturing soybean varieties and used the data from these trials to calibrate and validate the Rothamsted Landscape Model. Once validated, the model was used to predict the probability soybean would mature and the associated yield for 26 sites across the UK based on weather data under current, near-future (2041-60) and far-future (2081-2100) climate. Two representative concentration pathways, a midrange mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) and a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) were also explored. Our analysis revealed that under current climate early maturing varieties will mature in the south of the UK, but the probability of failure increases with latitude. Of the 26 sites considered, only at one did soybean mature for every realisation. Predicted expected yields ranged between 1.39 t ha-1 and 1.95 t ha-1 across sites. Under climate change these varieties are likely to mature as far north as southern Scotland. With greater levels of CO2, yield is predicted to increase by as much as 0.5 t ha-1 at some sites in the far future, but this is tempered by other effects of climate change meaning that for most sites no meaningful increase in yield is expected. We conclude that soybean is likely to be a viable crop in the UK and for similar climates at similar latitudes in Northern Europe in the future but that for yields to be economically attractive for local markets, varieties must be chosen to align with the growing season.

An online headphone screening test based on dichotic pitch.

Online experimental platforms can be used as an alternative to, or complement, lab-based research. However, when conducting auditory experiments via online methods, the researcher has limited control over the participants' listening environment. We offer a new method to probe one aspect of that environment, headphone use. Headphones not only provide better control of sound presentation but can also "shield" the listener from background noise. Here we present a rapid (< 3 min) headphone screening test based on Huggins Pitch (HP), a perceptual phenomenon that can only be detected when stimuli are presented dichotically. We validate this test using a cohort of "Trusted" online participants who completed the test using both headphones and loudspeakers. The same participants were also used to test an existing headphone test (AP test; Woods et al., 2017, Attention Perception Psychophysics). We demonstrate that compared to the AP test, the HP test has a higher selectivity for headphone users, rendering it as a compelling alternative to existing methods. Overall, the new HP test correctly detects 80% of headphone users and has a false-positive rate of 20%. Moreover, we demonstrate that combining the HP test with an additional test-either the AP test or an alternative based on a beat test (BT)-can lower the false-positive rate to ~ 7%. This should be useful in situations where headphone use is particularly critical (e.g., dichotic or spatial manipulations). Code for implementing the new tests is publicly available in JavaScript and through Gorilla (gorilla.sc).

Model-based optimisation of agricultural profitability and nutrient management: a practical approach for dealing with issues of scale.

To manage agricultural landscapes more sustainably, we must understand and quantify the synergies and trade-offs between environmental impact, production, and other ecosystem services. Models play an important role in this type of analysis as generally it is infeasible to test multiple scenarios by experiment. These models can be linked with algorithms that optimise for multiple objectives by searching a space of allowable management interventions (the control variables). Optimisation of landscapes for multiple objectives can be computationally challenging, however, particularly if the scale of management is typically smaller (e.g. field scale) than the scale at which the objective is quantified (landscape scale) resulting in a large number of control variables whose impacts do not necessarily scale linearly. In this paper, we explore some practical solutions to this problem through a case study. In our case study, we link a relatively detailed, agricultural landscape model with a multiple-objective optimisation algorithm to determine solutions that both maximise profitability and minimise greenhouse gas emissions in response to management. The optimisation algorithm combines a non-dominated sorting routine with differential evolution, whereby a 'population' of 100 solutions evolves over time to a Pareto optimal front. We show the advantages of using a hierarchical approach to the optimisation, whereby it is applied to finer-scale units first (i.e. fields), and then the solutions from each optimisation are combined in a second step to produce landscape-scale outcomes. We show that if there is no interaction between units, then the solution derived using such an approach will be the same as the one obtained if the landscape is optimised in one step. However, if there is spatial interaction, or if there are constraints on the allowable sets of solutions, then outcomes can be quite different. In these cases, other approaches to increase the efficiency of the optimisation may be more appropriate-such as initialising the control variables for half of the population of solutions with values expected to be near optimal. Our analysis shows the importance of aligning a policy or management recommendation with the appropriate scale.

Using functional traits to model annual plant community dynamics.

Predicting the response of biological communities to changes in the environment or management is a fundamental pursuit of community ecology. Meeting this challenge requires the integration of multiple processes: habitat filtering, niche differentiation, biotic interactions, competitive exclusion, and stochastic demographic events. Most approaches to this long-standing problem focus either on the role of the environment, using trait-based filtering approaches, or on quantifying biotic interactions with process-based community dynamics models. We introduce a novel approach that uses functional traits to parameterize a process-based model. By combining the two approaches we make use of the extensive literature on traits and community filtering as a convenient means of reducing the parameterization requirements of a complex population dynamics model whilst retaining the power to capture the processes underlying community assembly. Using arable weed communities as a case study, we demonstrate that this approach results in predictions that show realistic distributions of traits and that trait selection predicted by our simulations is consistent with in-field observations. We demonstrate that trait-based filtering approaches can be combined with process-based models to derive the emergent distribution of traits. While initially developed to predict the impact of crop management on functional shifts in weed communities, our approach has the potential to be applied to other annual plant communities if the generality of relationships between traits and model parameters can be confirmed.

What makes or breaks a campaign to stop an invading plant pathogen?

Diseases in humans, animals and plants remain an important challenge in our society. Effective control of invasive pathogens often requires coordinated concerted action of a large group of stakeholders. Both epidemiological and human behavioural factors influence the outcome of a disease control campaign. In mathematical models that are frequently used to guide such campaigns, human behaviour is often ill-represented, if at all. Existing models of human, animal and plant disease that do incorporate participation or compliance are often driven by pay-offs or direct observations of the disease state. It is however very well known that opinion is an important driving factor of human decision making. Here we consider the case study of Citrus Huanglongbing disease (HLB), which is an acute bacterial disease that threatens the sustainability of citrus production across the world. We show how by coupling an epidemiological model of this invasive disease with an opinion dynamics model we are able to answer the question: What makes or breaks the effectiveness of a disease control campaign? Frequent contact between stakeholders and advisors is shown to increase the probability of successful control. More surprisingly, we show that informing stakeholders about the effectiveness of control methods is of much greater importance than prematurely increasing their perceptions of the risk of infection. We discuss the overarching consequences of this finding and the effect on human as well as plant disease epidemics.

Accounting for data sparsity when forming spatially coherent zones.

Efficient farm management can be aided by the identification of zones in the landscape. These zones can be informed from different measured variables by ensuring a sense of spatial coherence. Forming spatially coherent zones is an established method in the literature, but has been found to perform poorly when data are sparse. In this paper, we describe the different types of data sparsity and investigate how this impacts the performance of established methods. We introduce a set of methodological advances that address these shortcomings to provide a method for forming spatially coherent zones under data sparsity.

Multi-objective optimization as a tool to identify possibilities for future agricultural landscapes.

Agricultural landscapes provide many functions simultaneously including food production, regulation of water and regulation of greenhouse gases. Thus, it is challenging to make land management decisions, particularly transformative changes, that improve on one function without unintended consequences for other functions. To make informed decisions the trade-offs between different landscape functions must be considered. Here, we use a multi-objective optimization algorithm with a model of crop production that also simulates environmental effects such as nitrous oxide emissions to identify trade-off frontiers and associated possibilities for agricultural management. Trade-offs are identified in three soil types, using wheat production in the UK as an example, then the trade-off for combined management of the three soils is considered. The optimization algorithm identifies trade-offs between different objectives and allows them to be visualised. For example, we observed a highly non-linear trade-off between wheat yield and nitrous oxide emissions, illustrating where small changes might have a large impact. We used a cluster analysis to identify distinct management strategies with similar management actions and use these clusters to link the trade-off curves to possibilities for management. There were more possible strategies for achieving desirable environmental outcomes and remaining profitable when the management of different soil types was considered together. Interestingly, it was on the soil capable of the highest potential profit that lower profit strategies were identified as useful for combined management. Meanwhile, to maintain average profitability across the soils, it was necessary to maximise the profit from the soil with the lowest potential profit. These results are somewhat counterintuitive and so the range of strategies supplied by the model could be used to stimulate discussion amongst stakeholders. In particular, as some key objectives can be met in different ways, stakeholders could discuss the impact of these management strategies on other objectives not quantified by the model.

Auditory and Visual Sequence Learning in Humans and Monkeys using an Artificial Grammar Learning Paradigm.

Language flexibly supports the human ability to communicate using different sensory modalities, such as writing and reading in the visual modality and speaking and listening in the auditory domain. Although it has been argued that nonhuman primate communication abilities are inherently multisensory, direct behavioural comparisons between human and nonhuman primates are scant. Artificial grammar learning (AGL) tasks and statistical learning experiments can be used to emulate ordering relationships between words in a sentence. However, previous comparative work using such paradigms has primarily investigated sequence learning within a single sensory modality. We used an AGL paradigm to evaluate how humans and macaque monkeys learn and respond to identically structured sequences of either auditory or visual stimuli. In the auditory and visual experiments, we found that both species were sensitive to the ordering relationships between elements in the sequences. Moreover, the humans and monkeys produced largely similar response patterns to the visual and auditory sequences, indicating that the sequences are processed in comparable ways across the sensory modalities. These results provide evidence that human sequence processing abilities stem from an evolutionarily conserved capacity that appears to operate comparably across the sensory modalities in both human and nonhuman primates. The findings set the stage for future neurobiological studies to investigate the multisensory nature of these sequencing operations in nonhuman primates and how they compare to related processes in humans.

The implications of spatially variable pre-emergence herbicide efficacy for weed management.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of pre-emergence herbicides within fields is spatially variable as a consequence of soil heterogeneity. We quantified the effect of soil organic matter on the efficacy of two pre-emergence herbicides, flufenacet and pendimethalin, against Alopecurus myosuroides and investigated the implications of variation in organic matter for weed management using a crop-weed competition model. RESULTS: Soil organic matter played a critical role in determining the level of control achieved. The high organic matter soil had more surviving weeds with higher biomass than the low organic matter soil. In the absence of competition, surviving plants recovered to produce the same amount of seed as if no herbicide had been applied. The competition model predicted that weeds surviving pre-emergence herbicides could compensate for sublethal effects even when competing with the crop. The ED50 (median effective dose) was higher for weed seed production than seedling mortality or biomass. This difference was greatest on high organic matter soil. CONCLUSION: These results show that the application rate of herbicides should be adjusted to account for within-field variation in soil organic matter. The results from the modelling emphasised the importance of crop competition in limiting the capacity of weeds surviving pre-emergence herbicides to compensate and replenish the seedbank. © 2017 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

The landscape model: A model for exploring trade-offs between agricultural production and the environment.

We describe a model framework that simulates spatial and temporal interactions in agricultural landscapes and that can be used to explore trade-offs between production and environment so helping to determine solutions to the problems of sustainable food production. Here we focus on models of agricultural production, water movement and nutrient flow in a landscape. We validate these models against data from two long-term experiments, (the first a continuous wheat experiment and the other a permanent grass-land experiment) and an experiment where water and nutrient flow are measured from isolated catchments. The model simulated wheat yield (RMSE 20.3-28.6%), grain N (RMSE 21.3-42.5%) and P (RMSE 20.2-29% excluding the nil N plots), and total soil organic carbon particularly well (RMSE3.1-13.8%), the simulations of water flow were also reasonable (RMSE 180.36 and 226.02%). We illustrate the use of our model framework to explore trade-offs between production and nutrient losses.

Evolutionary origins of non-adjacent sequence processing in primate brain potentials.

There is considerable interest in understanding the ontogeny and phylogeny of the human language system, yet, neurobiological work at the interface of both fields is absent. Syntactic processes in language build on sensory processing and sequencing capabilities on the side of the receiver. While we better understand language-related ontogenetic changes in the human brain, it remains a mystery how neurobiological processes at specific human development stages compare with those in phylogenetically closely related species. To address this knowledge gap, we measured EEG event-related potentials (ERPs) in two macaque monkeys using a paradigm developed to evaluate human infant and adult brain potentials associated with the processing of non-adjacent ordering relationships in sequences of syllable triplets. Frequent standard triplet sequences were interspersed with infrequent voice pitch or non-adjacent rule deviants. Monkey ERPs show early pitch and rule deviant mismatch responses that are strikingly similar to those previously reported in human infants. This stands in contrast to adults' later ERP responses for rule deviants. The results reveal how non-adjacent sequence ordering relationships are processed in the primate brain and provide evidence for evolutionarily conserved neurophysiological effects, some of which are remarkably like those seen at an early human developmental stage.

Individually customisable non-invasive head immobilisation system for non-human primates with an option for voluntary engagement.

BACKGROUND: Head immobilisation is often necessary for neuroscientific procedures. A number of Non-invasive Head Immobilisation Systems (NHIS) for monkeys are available, but the need remains for a feasible integrated system combining a broad range of essential features. NEW METHOD: We developed an individualised macaque NHIS addressing several animal welfare and scientific needs. The system comprises a customised-to-fit facemask that can be used separately or combined with a back piece to form a full-head helmet. The system permits presentation of visual and auditory stimuli during immobilisation and provides mouth access for reward. RESULTS: The facemask was incorporated into an automated voluntary training system, allowing the animals to engage with it for increasing periods leading to full head immobilisation. We evaluated the system during performance on several auditory or visual behavioural tasks with testing sessions lasting 1.5-2h, used thermal imaging to monitor for and prevent pressure points, and measured head movement using MRI. COMPARISON WITH EXISTING METHODS: A comprehensive evaluation of the system is provided in relation to several scientific and animal welfare requirements. Behavioural results were often comparable to those obtained with surgical implants. Cost-benefit analyses were conducted comparing the system with surgical options, highlighting the benefits of implementing the non-invasive option. CONCLUSIONS: The system has a number of potential applications and could be an important tool in neuroscientific research, when direct access to the brain for neuronal recordings is not required, offering the opportunity to conduct non-invasive experiments while improving animal welfare and reducing reliance on surgically implanted head posts.

Communicating the uncertainty in estimated greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.

In an effort to mitigate anthropogenic effects on the global climate system, industrialised countries are required to quantify and report, for various economic sectors, the annual emissions of greenhouse gases from their several sources and the absorption of the same in different sinks. These estimates are uncertain, and this uncertainty must be communicated effectively, if government bodies, research scientists or members of the public are to draw sound conclusions. Our interest is in communicating the uncertainty in estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture to those who might directly use the results from the inventory. We tested six methods of communication. These were: a verbal scale using the IPCC calibrated phrases such as 'likely' and 'very unlikely'; probabilities that emissions are within a defined range of values; confidence intervals for the expected value; histograms; box plots; and shaded arrays that depict the probability density of the uncertain quantity. In a formal trial we used these methods to communicate uncertainty about four specific inferences about greenhouse gas emissions in the UK. Sixty four individuals who use results from the greenhouse gas inventory professionally participated in the trial, and we tested how effectively the uncertainty about these inferences was communicated by means of a questionnaire. Our results showed differences in the efficacy of the methods of communication, and interactions with the nature of the target audience. We found that, although the verbal scale was thought to be a good method of communication it did not convey enough information and was open to misinterpretation. Shaded arrays were similarly criticised for being open to misinterpretation, but proved to give the best impression of uncertainty when participants were asked to interpret results from the greenhouse gas inventory. Box plots were most favoured by our participants largely because they were particularly favoured by those who worked in research or had a stronger mathematical background. We propose a combination of methods should be used to convey uncertainty in emissions and that this combination should be tailored to the professional group.

Different forms of effective connectivity in primate frontotemporal pathways.

It is generally held that non-primary sensory regions of the brain have a strong impact on frontal cortex. However, the effective connectivity of pathways to frontal cortex is poorly understood. Here we microstimulate sites in the superior temporal and ventral frontal cortex of monkeys and use functional magnetic resonance imaging to evaluate the functional activity resulting from the stimulation of interconnected regions. Surprisingly, we find that, although certain earlier stages of auditory cortical processing can strongly activate frontal cortex, downstream auditory regions, such as voice-sensitive cortex, appear to functionally engage primarily an ipsilateral temporal lobe network. Stimulating other sites within this activated temporal lobe network shows strong activation of frontal cortex. The results indicate that the relative stage of sensory processing does not predict the level of functional access to the frontal lobes. Rather, certain brain regions engage local networks, only parts of which have a strong functional impact on frontal cortex.

The Effect of Farmers' Decisions on Pest Control with Bt Crops: A Billion Dollar Game of Strategy.

A farmer's decision on whether to control a pest is usually based on the perceived threat of the pest locally and the guidance of commercial advisors. Therefore, farmers in a region are often influenced by similar circumstances, and this can create a coordinated response for pest control that is effective at a landscape scale. This coordinated response is not intentional, but is an emergent property of the system. We propose a framework for understanding the intrinsic feedback mechanisms between the actions of humans and the dynamics of pest populations and demonstrate this framework using the European corn borer, a serious pest in maize crops. We link a model of the European corn borer and a parasite in a landscape with a model that simulates the decisions of individual farmers on what type of maize to grow. Farmers chose whether to grow Bt-maize, which is toxic to the corn borer, or conventional maize for which the seed is cheaper. The problem is akin to the snow-drift problem in game theory; that is to say, if enough farmers choose to grow Bt maize then because the pest is suppressed an individual may benefit from growing conventional maize. We show that the communication network between farmers' and their perceptions of profit and loss affects landscape scale patterns in pest dynamics. We found that although adoption of Bt maize often brings increased financial returns, these rewards oscillate in response to the prevalence of pests.