HIV risk behaviour, viraemia, and transmission across HIV cascade stages including low-level viremia: Analysis of 14 cross-sectional population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

As antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) increases, HIV programmes require up-to-date information about evolving HIV risk behaviour and transmission risk, including those with low-level viremia (LLV; >50 to ≤1000 copies/mL), to guide prevention priorities. We aimed to assess differences in sexual risk behaviours, distribution of viral load (VL) and proportion of transmission across PLHIV subgroups. We analysed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries during 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of self-reported HIV high-risk behaviour (multiple partners and condomless sex) across cascade stages via generalised estimation equations. We modelled the proportions of transmission from each subgroup using relative self-reported sexual risk, a Hill function for transmission rate by VL, and proportions within cascade stages from surveys and UNAIDS country estimates for 2010-2020. Compared to PLHIV with undetectable VL (≤50 copies/mL), undiagnosed PLHIV (aPR women: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]; men: 1.61 [1.33-1.95]) and men diagnosed but untreated (2.06 [1.52-2.78]) were more likely to self-report high-risk sex. High-risk behaviour was not significantly associated with LLV. Mean VL was similar among undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and on ART but non-suppressed sub-groups. Across surveys, undiagnosed and diagnosed but untreated contributed most to transmission (40-91% and 1-41%, respectively), with less than 1% from those with LLV. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of transmission from individuals on ART but non-suppressed increased. In settings with high ART coverage, effective HIV testing, ART linkage, and retention remain priorities to reduce HIV transmission. Persons with LLV are an increasing share of PLHIV but their contribution to HIV transmission was small. Improving suppression among PLHIV on ART with VL ≥1000 copies/mL will become increasingly important.

Comparison of HIV prevalence, incidence, and viral load suppression in Zambia population-based HIV impact assessments from 2016 and 2021.

BACKGROUND: The Zambian government has implemented a public health response to control the HIV epidemic in the country. Zambia conducted a population-based HIV impact assessment (ZAMPHIA) survey in 2021 to assess the status of the HIV epidemic to guide its public health programs. METHODS: ZAMPHIA 2021 was a cross-sectional two-stage cluster sample household survey among persons aged ≥15 years conducted in Zambia across all 10 provinces. Consenting participants were administered a standardized questionnaire and whole blood was tested for HIV according to national guidelines. HIV-1 viral load (VL), recent HIV infection, and antiretroviral medications were tested for in HIV-seropositive samples. Viral load suppression (VLS) was defined as <1000 copies/ml. ZAMPHIA 2021 results were compared to ZAMPHIA 2016 for persons aged 15-59 years (i.e., the overlapping age ranges). All estimates were weighted to account for nonresponse and survey design. RESULTS: During ZAMPHIA 2021, of 25 483 eligible persons aged ≥15 years, 18 804 (73.8%) were interviewed and tested for HIV. HIV prevalence was 11.0% and VLS prevalence was 86.2% overall, but was <80% among people living with HIV aged 15-24 years and in certain provinces. Among persons aged 15-59 years, from 2016 to 2021, HIV incidence declined from 0.6% to 0.3% ( P -value: 0.07) and VLS prevalence increased from 59.2% to 85.7% ( P -value: <0.01). DISCUSSION: Zambia has made substantial progress toward controlling the HIV epidemic from 2016 to 2021. Continued implementation of a test-and-treat strategy, with attention to groups with lower VLS in the ZAMPHIA 2021, could support reductions in HIV incidence and improve overall VLS in Zambia.

Risk Factors for Recent HIV Infections among Adults in 14 Countries in Africa Identified by Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Surveys, 2015-2019.

Identifying persons who have newly acquired HIV infections is critical for characterizing the HIV epidemic direction. We analyzed pooled data from nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted across 14 countries in Africa for recent infection risk factors. We included adults 15-49 years of age who had sex during the previous year and used a recent infection testing algorithm to distinguish recent from long-term infections. We collected risk factor information via participant interviews and assessed correlates of recent infection using multinomial logistic regression, incorporating each survey's complex sampling design. Compared with HIV-negative persons, persons with higher odds of recent HIV infection were women, were divorced/separated/widowed, had multiple recent sex partners, had a recent HIV-positive sex partner or one with unknown status, and lived in communities with higher HIV viremia prevalence. Prevention programs focusing on persons at higher risk for HIV and their sexual partners will contribute to reducing HIV incidence.

Hypertension among persons living with HIV-Zambia, 2021; A cross-sectional study of a national electronic health record system.

Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease, which is a common cause of death in Zambia. Data on hypertension prevalence in Zambia are scarce and limited to specific geographic areas and/or populations. We measured hypertension prevalence among persons living with HIV (PLHIV) in Zambia using a national electronic health record (EHR) system. We did a cross-sectional study of hypertension prevalence among PLHIV aged ≥18 years during 2021. Data were extracted from the SmartCare EHR, which covers ~90% of PLHIV on treatment in Zambia. PLHIV with ≥2 clinical visits in 2021 were included. Hypertension was defined as ≥2 elevated blood pressure readings (systolic ≥140 mmHg/diastolic ≥90 mmHg) during 2021 and/or on anti-hypertensive medication recorded in their EHR ≤5 years. Logistic regression was used to assess for associations between hypertension and demographic characteristics. Among 750,098 PLHIV aged ≥18 years with ≥2 visits during 2021, 101,363 (13.5%) had ≥2 recorded blood pressure readings. Among these PLHIV, 14.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 14.5-14.9) had hypertension. Only 8.9% of PLHIV with hypertension had an anti-hypertensive medication recorded in their EHR. The odds of hypertension were greater in older age groups compared to PLHIV aged 18-29 years (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for 30-44 years: 2.6 [95% CI: 2.4-2.9]; aOR for 45-49 years: 6.4 [95% CI: 5.8-7.0]; aOR for ≥60 years: 14.5 [95% CI: 13.1-16.1]), urban areas (aOR: 1.9 [95% CI: 1.8-2.1]), and on ART for ≥6-month at a time (aOR: 1.1 [95% CI: 1.0-1.2]). Hypertension was common among PLHIV in Zambia, with few having documentation of treatment. Most PLHIV were excluded from the analysis because of missing BP measurements. Strengthening integrated management of non-communicable diseases in HIV clinics might help to diagnose and treat hypertension in Zambia. Addressing missing data of routine clinical data (like blood pressure) could improve non-communicable diseases surveillance in Zambia.

Measuring Oral Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) Continuation Through Electronic Health Records During Program Scale-Up Among the General Population in Zambia.

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is being scaled-up in Zambia, but PrEP continuation data are limited by paper-based registers and aggregate reports. Utilization of Zambia's electronic health record (EHR) system, SmartCare, may address this gap. We analyzed individuals aged ≥ 15 years who initiated PrEP between October 2020 and September 2021 in four provinces in Zambia in SmartCare versus aggregate reports. We measured PrEP continuation using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards models. SmartCare captured 29% (16,791/58,010) of new PrEP clients; 49% of clients continued at one month, and 89% discontinued PrEP by February 2022. Women were less likely than men to discontinue PrEP (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 0.89, 95% CI 0.86-0.92, z = - 6.99, p < 0.001), and PrEP clients aged ≥ 50 years were less likely to discontinue PrEP compared to clients 15-19 years (aHR: 0.53, 95% CI 0.48-0.58, z = - 13.04, p < 0.001). Zambia's EHR is a valuable resource for measuring individual-level PrEP continuation over time and can be used to inform HIV prevention programs.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19 During the First 4 Waves in Zambia.

Importance: Few epidemiologic studies related to COVID-19 have emerged from countries in Africa, where demographic characteristics, epidemiology, and health system capacity differ from other parts of the world. Objectives: To describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients admitted to COVID-19 treatment centers, assess risk factors for in-hospital death, and explore how treatment center admissions were affected by COVID-19 waves in Zambia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study assessed patients admitted to COVID-19 treatment centers in 5 Zambian cities between March 1, 2020, and February 28, 2022. Exposures: Risk factors for in-hospital mortality, including patient age and severity of COVID-19, at treatment center admission. Main Outcomes and Measures: Patient information was collected, including inpatient disposition (discharged or died). Differences across and within COVID-19 waves were assessed. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to assess associations between risk factors and in-hospital mortality as well as between characteristics of admitted patients and timing of admission. Results: A total of 3876 patients were admitted during 4 COVID-19 waves (mean [SD] age, 50.6 [19.5] years; 2103 male [54.3%]). Compared with the first 3 waves (pooled), the proportion of patients who were 60 years or older admitted during wave 4, when the Omicron variant was circulating, was significantly lower (250 of 1009 [24.8%] vs 1116 of 2837 [39.3%]; P < .001). Factors associated with in-hospital mortality included older age (≥60 vs <30 years; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.55; 95% CI, 2.34-5.52) and HIV infection (aOR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.07-1.79). Within waves, patients who were admitted during weeks 5 to 9 had significantly higher odds of being 60 years or older (aOR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.79-2.45) or having severe COVID-19 at admission (aOR, 2.49; 95% CI, 2.14-2.90) than those admitted during the first 4 weeks. Conclusions and Relevance: The characteristics of admitted patients during the Omicron wave and risk factors for in-hospital mortality in Zambia reflect data reported elsewhere. Within-wave analyses revealed a pattern in which it appeared that admission of higher-risk patients was prioritized during periods when there were surges in demand for health services during COVID-19 waves. These findings support the need to expand health system capacity and improve health system resiliency in Zambia and other countries with resource-limited health systems.

COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Against Progression to In-Hospital Mortality in Zambia, 2021-2022.

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines are highly effective for reducing severe disease and mortality. However, vaccine effectiveness data are limited from Sub-Saharan Africa. We report COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against progression to in-hospital mortality in Zambia. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among admitted patients at 8 COVID-19 treatment centers across Zambia during April 2021 through March 2022, when the Delta and Omicron variants were circulating. Patient demographic and clinical information including vaccination status and hospitalization outcome (discharged or died) were collected. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the odds of in-hospital mortality by vaccination status, adjusted for age, sex, number of comorbid conditions, disease severity, hospitalization month, and COVID-19 treatment center. Vaccine effectiveness of ≥1 vaccine dose was calculated from the adjusted odds ratio. Results: Among 1653 patients with data on their vaccination status and hospitalization outcome, 365 (22.1%) died. Overall, 236 (14.3%) patients had received ≥1 vaccine dose before hospital admission. Of the patients who had received ≥1 vaccine dose, 22 (9.3%) died compared with 343 (24.2%) among unvaccinated patients (P < .01). The median time since receipt of a first vaccine dose (interquartile range) was 52.5 (28-107) days. Vaccine effectiveness for progression to in-hospital mortality among hospitalized patients was 64.8% (95% CI, 42.3%-79.4%). Conclusions: Among patients admitted to COVID-19 treatment centers in Zambia, COVID-19 vaccination was associated with lower progression to in-hospital mortality. These data are consistent with evidence from other countries demonstrating the benefit of COVID-19 vaccination against severe complications. Vaccination is a critical tool for reducing the consequences of COVID-19 in Zambia.

A national HIV clinical mentorship program: Enabling Zambia to accelerate control of the HIV epidemic.

Although Zambia has increased the proportion of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who are on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in recent years, progress toward HIV epidemic control remains inconsistent. Some districts are still failing to meet the UNAIDS 90/90/90 targets where 90% of PLHIV should know their status, 90% of those diagnosed should be on ART, and 90% of those on ART should achieve viral load suppression (VLS) by 2020. Providing consistently excellent HIV services at all ART health facilities is critical for achieving the UNAIDS 90/90/90 targets and controlling the HIV epidemic in Zambia. Zambia Ministry of Health, in collaboration with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), aimed to achieve these targets through establishing a national HIV clinical mentorship program in which government-employed mentors were assigned to specific facilities with a mandate to identify and ameliorate programmatic challenges. Mentors were hired, trained and deployed to individual facilities in four provinces to mentor staff on quality HIV clinical and program management. The pre-mentorship period was July 2018-September 2018 and the post-mentorship period was July 2019-September 2019. Review of key programmatic indicators from the pre and post-deployment periods revealed the proportion of people who had a positive HIV test result out of those tested increased from 4.2% to 6.8% (P <0.001) as fewer HIV tests were needed despite the number of PLHIV being identified and placed on ART increasing from 492,613 to 521,775, and VLS increased from 84.8% to 90.1% (p <0.001). Key considerations in the establishment of an HIV clinical mentorship program include having a government-led process of regular site level data review and continuous clinical mentorship underpinned by quality improvement methodology.

COVID-19 Severity and COVID-19-Associated Deaths Among Hospitalized Patients with HIV Infection - Zambia, March-December 2020.

The effect of HIV infection on COVID-19 outcomes is unclear. Studies in South Africa (1) and the United Kingdom (2) found an independent association between HIV infection and COVID-19 mortality; however, other studies have not found an association between poor COVID-19 outcomes and either HIV status among hospitalized patients (3-5) or HIV-associated factors such as CD4 count, viral load, or type of antiretroviral therapy (ART) (6). The effect of HIV infection on COVID-19 outcomes remains an urgent question in sub-Saharan Africa, where many countries are experiencing dual HIV and COVID-19 epidemics, and capacity to treat severe COVID-19 is limited. Using data from patients with probable or confirmed COVID-19 admitted to specialized treatment centers during March-December 2020 in Zambia, the Zambian Ministry of Health and CDC assessed the relationship between HIV infection and severe COVID-19 and COVID-19-associated death. Among 443 patients included in the study, 122 (28%) were HIV-positive, and of these, 91 (89%) were receiving ART at the time of hospitalization. HIV status alone was not significantly associated with severe COVID-19 at admission or during hospitalization or with COVID-19-associated death. However, among HIV-positive persons, those with severe HIV disease were more likely to develop severe COVID-19 and were at increased risk for COVID-19-associated death. Ensuring that persons maintain HIV disease control, including maintaining ART continuity and adherence, achieving viral suppression, and addressing and managing underlying medical conditions, could help reduce COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

Long-term immunological responses to treatment among HIV-2 patients in Côte d'Ivoire.

BACKGROUND: Studies indicate that responses to HIV-2 treatment regimens are worse than responses to HIV-1 regimens during the first 12 months of treatment, but longer-term treatment responses are poorly described. We utilized data from Côte d'Ivoire's RETRO-CI laboratory to examine long-term responses to HIV-2 treatment. METHODS: Adult (≥15 years) patients with baseline CD4 counts < 500 cells/µl that initiated treatment at one of two HIV treatment centers in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire between 1998 and 2004 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Patients were stratified by baseline CD4 counts and survival analyses were employed to examine the relationship between HIV type and time to achieving CD4 ≥ 500 cells/µl during follow up. RESULTS: Among 3487 patients, median follow-up time was 4 years and 57% had documented ART regimens for > 75% of their recorded visits. Kaplan-Meier estimates for achievement of CD4 ≥ 500 cells/µl after 6 years of follow-up for patients in the lower CD4 strata (< 200 cells/µl) were 40% (HIV-1), 31% (HIV-dual), and 17% (HIV-2) (log-rank p < 0.001). Cox Regression indicated that HIV-1 was significantly associated with achievement of CD4 ≥ 500 cells/µl during follow-up, compared to HIV-2. CONCLUSIONS: Sub-optimal responses to long-term HIV-2 treatment underscore the need for more research into improved and/or new treatment options for patients with HIV-2. In many West African countries, effective treatment of both HIV-1 and HIV-2 will be essential in the effort to reach epidemic control.

Specimen origin, type and testing laboratory are linked to longer turnaround times for HIV viral load testing in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to reach UNAIDS' treatment and viral suppression targets have increased demand for viral load (VL) testing and strained existing laboratory networks, affecting turnaround time. Longer VL turnaround times delay both initiation of formal adherence counseling and switches to second-line therapy for persons failing treatment and contribute to poorer health outcomes. METHODS: We utilized descriptive statistics and logistic regression to analyze VL testing data collected in Malawi between January 2013 and March 2016. The primary outcomes assessed were greater-than-median pretest phase turnaround time (days elapsed from specimen collection to receipt at the laboratory) and greater-than-median test phase turnaround time (days from receipt to testing). RESULTS: The median number of days between specimen collection and testing increased 3-fold between 2013 (8 days, interquartile range (IQR) = 6-16) and 2015 (24, IQR = 13-39) (p<0.001). Multivariable analysis indicated that the odds of longer pretest phase turnaround time were significantly higher for specimen collection districts without laboratories capable of conducting viral load tests (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 5.16; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.04-5.27) as well as for Malawi's Northern and Southern regions. Longer test phase turnaround time was significantly associated with use of dried blood spots instead of plasma (aOR = 2.30; 95% CI = 2.23-2.37) and for certain testing months and testing laboratories. CONCLUSION: Increased turnaround time for VL testing appeared to be driven in part by categorical factors specific to the phase of turnaround time assessed. Given the implications of longer turnaround time and the global effort to scale up VL testing, addressing these factors via increasing efficiencies, improving quality management systems and generally strengthening the VL spectrum should be considered essential components of controlling the HIV epidemic.

Elevated Hepcidin Is Part of a Complex Relation That Links Mortality with Iron Homeostasis and Anemia in Men and Women with HIV Infection.

BACKGROUND: Early and chronic inflammation is a hallmark of HIV infection, and inflammation is known to increase hepcidin expression. Consequently, hepcidin may be a key determinant of the iron homeostasis and anemia associated with poorer HIV prognoses. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to understand how hepcidin is related to anemia, iron homeostasis, and inflammation at HIV diagnosis and to investigate associations between hepcidin and all-cause mortality in HIV infection. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort, baseline plasma hepcidin was measured by competitive enzyme immunoassay within 3 mo of HIV diagnosis in 196 antiretroviral-naive Gambians. Iron homeostasis [hemoglobin, plasma transferrin, ferritin, iron, soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR)] and inflammation [α1-antichymotrypsin (ACT)] from the same plasma sample were available, as were absolute CD4 cell counts, age, gender, body mass index (BMI), and HIV type. RESULTS: Anemia was common across the spectrum of immunosuppression [CD4 cell counts (prevalence of anemia): >500 cells/µL (68%), 200-500 cells/µL (73%), and <200 cells/µL (89%); P = 0.032] and in men (81%) and women (76%). Increasing hepcidin was associated with iron homeostasis biomarkers (higher ferritin and lower transferrin, hemoglobin, and sTfR), inflammation (higher ACT), and key health indicators (lower CD4 or BMI, advancing age, and male gender; P < 0.001 except for hemoglobin, P = 0.021). Elevated hepcidin was associated with greater all-cause mortality in a dose-dependent manner [intermediate vs. lowest tertile: unadjusted HR (95% CI), 1.95 (1.22, 3.10); upper vs. lowest tertile: 3.02 (1.91, 4.78)]. Principal components analysis identified 2 patterns composed of hepcidin-ferritin-transferrin, with or without ACT, and iron-sTfR-hemoglobin that may distinguish inflammation and erythropoiesis iron functions. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated hepcidin is independently associated with greater mortality in men and women with HIV infection, and hepcidin is also part of a complex relation linking iron homeostasis, anemia, and HIV. Understanding the mechanisms and role of hepcidin modulation may further guide evidence-based interventions needed to counter detrimental iron homeostasis and anemia in HIV infection.

Iron homeostasis and progression to pulmonary tuberculosis disease among household contacts.

Early identification of individuals at risk for progressing to active tuberculosis (TB) disease may limit new transmission and improve clinical outcomes. Evidence indicates altered iron homeostasis may identify those at greater risk of disease progression in HIV co-infection. We aimed to investigate iron homeostasis biomarkers as risk factors for progression to TB. Archived plasma samples were analyzed from household contacts of pulmonary TB index cases in The Gambia. Contacts were classified as asymptomatic non-progressors (n = 17) or TB-progressors (n = 10), which included two HIV-infected participants. Iron homeostasis (hemoglobin, ferritin, hepcidin, soluble transferrin receptor, transferrin) was assessed in all contacts at study recruitment. Plasma was collected a median of 910 days prior to TB diagnosis. Low transferrin around the time of known exposure to infectious TB was a disease progression risk factor among all TB-progressors (Poisson incidence rate ratio: 0.55; 95% CI: 0.35-0.89). Iron homeostasis also differed between early and delayed TB-progressors, with higher ferritin and hepcidin concentrations observed among early TB-progressors (mean ferritin 50.2 vs. 26.2 ng/ml; P = 0.027; mean hepcidin 37.7 vs. 5.6 ng/ml; P = 0.036). Iron homeostasis is associated with progression to TB among household contacts. Further studies are needed to elucidate mechanisms and determine the clinical utility of monitoring iron homeostasis biomarkers.

Complex anemia in tuberculosis: the need to consider causes and timing when designing interventions.

BACKGROUND: Anemia is common in tuberculosis, and multiple etiologies necessitate targeted interventions. The proportion of iron-responsive anemia due to iron deficiency compared with iron-unresponsive anemia due to impaired iron absorption/redistribution from tuberculosis-associated immune activation or inflammation is unknown. This impedes selection of safe and effective treatment and appropriate intervention timing. METHODS: Baseline hemoglobin, ferritin, hepcidin, soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), and transferrin were measured in 45 patients with confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (cases), 47 tuberculin skin test (TST)-positive controls, and 39 TST-negative controls in The Gambia. Tuberculosis cases were additionally followed 2 and 6 months after tuberculosis treatment initiation. Mutually exclusive anemia categories based on iron biomarker concentrations were iron deficiency anemia (IDA), anemia of inflammation (AI), and multifactorial anemia (IDA+AI). RESULTS: Anemia was more frequent in tuberculosis cases (67%) than in TST-positive (36%) or TST-negative (21%) controls. AI was the predominant anemia at tuberculosis diagnosis, declining from 36% to 8% after 6 months of treatment; however, a corresponding reduction was not evident for anemia with iron-responsive components (IDA, IDA+AI). Iron biomarkers discriminated between active tuberculosis and TST-positive or TST-negative controls, as well as between active untreated and treated tuberculosis. This was most noticeable for hepcidin, which decreased from a median of 84.0 ng/mL at diagnosis to 9.7 ng/mL after 2 months (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Tuberculosis chemotherapy is associated with significant reductions in AI, but IDA and IDA+AI remain unresolved. Iron-based interventions are needed for IDA and IDA+AI, and monitoring of iron biomarkers reveals a window for intervention opening as early as 2 months into tuberculosis treatment.