Spatial signatures of an approaching regime shift in Posidonia oceanica meadows.

Determining the proximity of ecosystems to tipping points is a critical yet complex task, heightened by the growing severity of climate change and local anthropogenic stressors on ecosystem integrity. Spatial Early Warning Signals (EWS) have been recognized for their potential in preemptively signaling regime shifts to degraded states, but their performance in natural systems remains uncertain. In this study, we investigated the performance of 'recovery length' - the spatial extent of recovery from a perturbation - and spatial EWS as early warnings of regime shifts in Posidonia oceanica meadows. Our experimental approach involved progressively thinning the P. oceanica canopy, from 0 to 100%, at the edge of a dead-matte area - a structure formed by dead P. oceanica rhizomes and colonized by algal turfs - to promote the propagation of algal turfs. We calculated recovery length as the distance from the dead-matte edge to the point where algal turfs colonized the canopy-thinned region. Our results showed a linear increase in recovery length with canopy thinning, successfully anticipated the degradation of P. oceanica. While spatial skewness decline with increased canopy degradation, other spatial EWS, such as Moran correlation at lag-1, low-frequency spatial spectra, and spatial variance, were ineffective in signaling this degradation. These findings underscore the potential of recovery length as a reliable early warning indicator of regime shifts in marine coastal ecosystems.

Stabilizing effects of spatially heterogeneous disturbance via reduced spatial synchrony on a rocky shore community.

Understanding how synchronous species fluctuations affect community stability is a main research topic in ecology. Yet experimental studies evaluating how changes in disturbance regimes affect the synchrony and stability of populations and communities remain rare. We hypothesized that spatially heterogeneous disturbances of moderate intensity would promote metacommunity stability by decreasing the spatial synchrony of species fluctuations. To test this hypothesis, we exposed rocky shore communities of algae and invertebrates to homogeneous and gradient-like spatial patterns of disturbance at two levels of intensity for 4 years and used synchrony networks to characterize community responses to these disturbances. The gradient-like disturbance at low intensity enhanced spatial ß diversity compared to the other treatments and produced the most heterogeneous and least synchronized network, which was also the most stable in terms of population and community fluctuations. In contrast, homogeneous disturbance destabilized the community, enhancing spatial synchronization. Intense disturbances always reduced spatial ß diversity, indicating that strong perturbations could destabilize communities via biotic homogenization regardless of their spatial structure. Our findings corroborated theoretical predictions, emphasizing the importance of spatially heterogeneous disturbances in promoting stability by amplifying asynchronous spatial and temporal fluctuations in population and community abundance. In contrast to other networks, synchrony networks are vulnerable to the removal of most peripheral nodes, which are less synchronized, but may contribute more to stability than other nodes by dampening large fluctuations in species abundance. Our findings suggest that climate change and direct anthropogenic disturbance can compromise the stability of ecological communities through combined effects on diversity and synchrony, as well as further affecting ecosystems through habitat loss.