Cost-effectiveness analysis of dapagliflozin versus glimepiride as monotherapy in a Chinese population with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin (a novel sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor) versus glimepiride (a widely used sulfonylurea), when applied as monotherapy in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in China. METHODS: Literature screening, meta-analysis and indirect comparison were used to compare efficacy and safety between dapagliflozin and glimepiride. Direct medication costs and medical expenditure on treating diabetes related comorbidities were calculated based on published and local sources and reported in 2015 Chinese Renminbi (RMB). A discount rate of 3% was applied to both costs and health effects. The Cardiff model, an economic model designed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of comparator therapies in diabetes, was used to generate outputs including macrovascular and microvascular complications, diabetes-specific mortality, costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a time horizon of 40 years from the health provider perspective. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty in the model results. RESULTS: Compared with glimepiride, patients on dapagliflozin gained 1.01 QALYs, at a cost saving of RMB 49,065 in our simulated cohort. This resulted in a cost saving of RMB 48,585 per QALY gained with dapagliflozin. The cost-effectiveness results were robust to various sensitivity analyses including probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with glimepiride, dapagliflozin as monotherapy for T2DM is a more cost-effective treatment for T2DM patients on monotherapy in China. The weight control has been identified as the major contributor for the higher cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin.

Differences in risk-adjusted outcome of road traffic injuries in urban tertiary care centers of Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the differences in road injury survival in three tertiary care hospitals in an urban setting. METHODS: The study was conducted in and comprised all road traffic injury victims presenting to the three state-run tertiary care centres in Karachi from September 2006 to October 2009. Patients' age, gender, mode, and delay in arrival, severity of injury were noted. Data was stratified by hospital of presentation. A logistic regression model was developed and probability of survival was assessed after adjusting for various risk factors, including patient characteristics and injury severity. RESULTS: There were 93,657victims in the study, but complete information was missing in 6,458(6.89%) study subjects, including survival information. Overall, 83,837(89.5%) were males; 64,269(74%) were aged between 16 and 45 years; 84,016(95%) had injury severity score of ?15; and overall survival was 84,141(96.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Significant differences existed in risk-adjusted survival of road injury victims presenting to public hospitals of Karachi. These differences pointed to variations in the process of care, and highlighted opportunities for improvement.

Depression and its association with functional status and physical activity in the elderly in Karachi, Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to determine the functional status and level of physical activity and their association with depression in the elderly population (age 60 and above) in Karachi, Pakistan. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study. Subjects were recruited through multi-stage cluster sampling technique. Questionnaire-based interviews were conducted from July to September 2008. Functional status and physical activity were assessed using activities of daily living (ADL) and physical activity questionnaires, respectively. Depression was evaluated using the 15-item geriatric depression scale (GDS). RESULTS: Both mean ADL score (9.9±0.2 vs. 9.6±0.2) as well as time spent in physical activity/week (377.3±26.9min vs. 251.7±15.4min) was higher in men than women, respectively. Subjects spending more than 310min (>5.2h) per week in physical activity were 60% less likely to be depressed compared to those who spent less than 120min (<2h) per week (Adjusted OR=0.4, 95% CI=0.2-0.7). A one unit increase in ADL score showed a 10% decrease in depression after adjusting for other variables (Adjusted OR=0.9, 95% CI=0.8-0.9). CONCLUSIONS: We found a strong association between depression and time spent in physical activities as well as activities of daily living. Our results indicate the potentially important positive role of higher functional status and physical activity in prevention of depression in the elderly in Karachi.

Mapping and Analyzing Stakeholders in China's Essential Drug System by Using a Circular Model: Who We Should Deal with Next?

OBJECTIVES: To predict the prospects of the essential drug system by using the Stakeholder Impact Index (SII) and evaluate the current performance of each main stakeholder and suggested dangerous stakeholders and dormant stakeholders. METHODS: A Delphi method was used, involving 36 experts with experience in implementation and evaluation of the essential drug policy, to construct the circular model as well as evaluate the performance of each stakeholder. RESULTS: The central government was a dominant stakeholder of the whole essential drug system. The provincial governments were definitive stakeholders, whereas local governments and medical institutions were dependent stakeholders. Furthermore, media and drug stores were dormant stakeholders and pharmaceutical manufacturers and delivery enterprises were dangerous stakeholders. Patients, community residents, and medical insurance programs were discretionary stakeholders. The SII for the essential drug system was positive (SIIproj⁎ = 2.72). CONCLUSIONS: The overall anticipation of the essential drug policy is optimistic. Letting definitive stakeholders (provincial governments) having more autonomy can efficiently accelerate the pace of implementation of the essential drug policy in the current situation. Central government, however, also needs to construct an experience exchange platform with the aim of building versatile methods for running the essential drug system in all provinces. Pharmaceutical manufacturers and delivery enterprises were dangerous stakeholders for the essential drug policy. Because of their potential threat to the implementation of the policy, the central government should motivate them to support the construction of the essential drug system spontaneously. In that case, provincial governments need to construct a fair, balanced, and self-stabilized bidding platform.

The Current State of Poison Control Centers in Pakistan and the Need for Capacity Building.

BACKGROUND: Chemical exposure is a major health problem globally. Poison control centers (PCCs) play a leading role both in developed and developing countries in the prevention and control of poisonous chemical exposures. In this study, we aimed to assess the current state of PCCs in Pakistan and highlight capacity building needs in these centers. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of the two registered PCCs was done during August - December 2011. Necessary services of the PCCs were evaluated and the data were recorded on a predesigned checklist. RESULTS: Both PCCs are affiliated to a tertiary care hospital. Clinical services to poisoned patients were available 24 hours a day / 7 days a week. Information on common local products was available to poison center staff. Both centers were involved in undergraduate and post graduate teaching. Telephone poison information service was not available in either of centers. There was a limited capacity for qualitative and analytical toxicology. Common antidotes were available. There were limited surveillance activities to capture toxic risks existing in the community and also a deficiency was observed in chemical disaster planning. CONCLUSION: PCCs in Pakistan need capacity building for specialized training in toxicology, toxicovigilance, chemical disaster planning, analytical laboratory tests and telephone service for consultation in poisoning cases.

Missing the boat: odds for the patients who leave ED without being seen.

BACKGROUND: A patient left without being seen is a well-recognized indicator of Emergency Department overcrowding. The aim of this study was to define the characteristics of LWBS patients, their rates and associated factors from a tertiary care hospital of Pakistan. METHODS: A retrospective patient record review was undertaken. All patients presenting to the Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, between April and December of the year 2010, were included in the study. Information was collected on age, sex, presenting complaints, ED capacity, month, time, shift, day of the week, and waiting times in the ED. A basic descriptive analysis was made and the rates of LWBS patients were determined among the patient subgroups. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the risk factors associated with a patient not being seen in the ED. RESULTS: A total of 38,762 patients visited ED during the study period. Among them 5,086 (13%) patients left without being seen. Percentage of leaving was highest in the night shift (20%). The percentage was twice as high when the ED was on diversion (19.8%) compared to regular periods of operation (9.8%). Mean waiting time before leaving the ED in pediatric patients was 154 minutes while for adults it was 171 minutes. More than 32% of patients had waited for more than 180 minutes before they left without being seen, compared to the patients who were seen in ED. Important predictors for LWBS included; Triage category P4 i.e. walk -in-patients had an OR of 13.62(8.72-21.3), Diversion status, OR 1.49(1.26-1.76), night shift , OR 2.44(1.95-3.05) and Pediatric age, OR 0.57(0.48-0.66). CONCLUSIONS: Our study elucidates the LWBS population characteristics and identifies the risk factors for this phenomenon. Targeted interventions should be planned and implemented to decrease the waiting time and alternate services should be provided for high-risk patients (for LWBS) to minimize their number.

Commercial vehicles and road safety in Pakistan: exploring high-risk attributes among drivers and vehicles.

Road traffic injuries are on the rise in developing countries with a disproportionately high number of crashes involving commercial vehicles. Baseline information on risk factors is necessary to develop targeted prevention programmes. A survey of commercial drivers was conducted at the largest bus and truck station in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Structured interviews elicited information from 857 drivers on their socio-demographics, high-risk driving behaviours, fatigue, use of drugs while driving, vehicle maintenance and health conditions, as well as crash involvement. A binary logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the factors associated with crash involvement in the last five years. Overall, 92 (11.2%) drivers reported having had a road crash in the last 5 years. Factors independently associated with the occurrence of crashes were alcohol use (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.1-4.4), poor vehicle maintenance (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.7-7.01) and lack of seat belt use (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.3-5.6). The high prevalence of high-risk attributes in the study population indicates a great need for targeted risk prevention.

APACHE II scores as predictors of cardio pulmonary resuscitation outcome: Evidence from a tertiary care institute in a low-income country.

AIM: The aim of this study was to demonstrate that APACHE II scores can be used as a predictor of the cardio-pulmonary resuscitation (CPR) outcome in hospitalized patients. METHODS: A retrospective chart review of patients admitted, from 2002 to 2007, at the Aga Khan University Hospital, Karachi, was done for this study. Information was collected on 738 patients, constituting all adults admitted in general ward, ICU, CICU and SCU during this time, and who had under-went cardiac arrest and received cardiopulmonary resuscitation during their stay at the hospital. Patient characteristics, intra-arrest variables such as event-witnessed, initial cardiac rhythm, pre arrest need for intubation and vasoactive drugs, duration of CPR and survival details were extracted from patient records. The APACHE II score was calculated for each patient and a descriptive analysis was done for demographic and clinical features. The primary outcome of successful CPR was categorized as survival >24 h after CPR versus survival <24 h after CPR. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess the association between the explanatory variables and successful CPR. RESULTS: Patients with APACHE II scores less than 20 had 4.6 times higher odds of survival compared to patients with a score of >35 (AOR: 4.6, 95% CI: 2.4-9.0). Also, shorter duration of CPR (AOR: 2.9, 95% CI: 1.9-4.4), evening shift (AOR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3-3.5) and Male patients (AOR: 0.6, 95% CI: (0.4-0.9) compared to females were other significant predictors of CPR outcome. CONCLUSION: APACHE II score, along with other patient characteristics, should be considered in clinical decisions related to CPR administration.

Alcohol and marijuana use while driving--an unexpected crash risk in Pakistani commercial drivers: a cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: A significant proportion of road traffic crashes are attributable to alcohol and marijuana use while driving globally. Sale and use of both substances is illegal in Pakistan and is not considered a threat for road traffic injuries. However literature hints that this may not be the case. We did this study to assess usage of alcohol and marijuana in Pakistani commercial drivers. METHODS: A sample of 857 commercial bus and truck drivers was interviewed in October 2008 at the largest commercial vehicle station in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, Pakistan. Time location cluster sampling was used to select the subjects and a structured questionnaire was used to assess the basic demographic profile, substance abuse habits of the drivers while on the road, and reasons for usage of illicit substances while driving were recorded. Self reported information was collected after obtaining informed consent. Chi square and fisher exact tests were used to assess differences between groups and logistic regression was used to identify significant associations between driver characteristics and alcohol and marijuana use. RESULTS: Almost 10% of truck drivers use alcohol while driving on Pakistani roads. Marijuana use is almost 30% in some groups. Statistically different patterns of usage are seen between population subgroups based on age, ethnicity, education, and marital status. Regression analysis shows association of alcohol and marijuana use with road rage and error behaviours, and also with an increased risk of being involved in road crashes. The reported reasons for using alcohol or marijuana show a general lack of awareness of the hazardous nature of this practice among the commercial driver population. CONCLUSION: Alcohol and marijuana use is highly prevalent in Pakistani commercial drivers. The issue needs to be recognized by concerned authorities and methods such as random breath tests and sobriety check points need to be employed for proper law enforcement.

Unplanned return visit to emergency department: a descriptive study from a tertiary care hospital in a low-income country.

The objective of this study was to determine the incidence, causes, and factors associated with unplanned return visits to emergency department of a tertiary care centre in a low-income country. We conducted a retrospective chart review of all patients who had unplanned returned visit to our emergency department within 48 h of their initial visit during a 1-year study period. The incidence of unplanned revisits is 2%. Two-thirds (69%) of these patients were adults. The most common presenting complaint was fever (29%). During return visits 55% of patients required admission. On multivariable logistic regression model; fever, triage categories 1 and 2, and patients leaving against medical advice were the independent risk factors for revisits requiring admission. Infectious diseases are the leading cause of return visits in our setting.