Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS): a prospective national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Swaziland has the highest national HIV prevalence worldwide. The Swaziland HIV Incidence Measurement Survey (SHIMS) provides the first national HIV incidence estimate based on prospectively observed HIV seroconversions. METHODS: A two-stage survey sampling design was used to select a nationally representative sample of men and women aged 18-49 years from 14 891 households in 575 enumeration areas in Swaziland, who underwent household-based counselling and rapid HIV testing during 2011. All individuals aged 18-49 years who resided or had slept in the household the night before and were willing to undergo home-based HIV testing, answer demographic and behavioural questions in English or siSwati, and provide written informed consent were eligible for the study. We performed rapid HIV testing and assessed sociodemographic and behavioural characteristics with use of a questionnaire at baseline and, for HIV-seronegative individuals, 6 months later. We calculated HIV incidence with Poisson regression modelling as events per person-years × 100, and we assessed covariables as predictors with Cox proportional hazards modelling. Survey weighting was applied and all models used survey sampling methods. FINDINGS: Between Dec 10, 2010, and June 25, 2011, 11 897 HIV-seronegative adults were enrolled in SHIMS and 11 232 (94%) were re-tested. Of these, 145 HIV seroconversions were observed, resulting in a weighted HIV incidence of 2·4% (95% CI 2·1-2·8). Incidence was nearly twice as high in women (3·1%; 95% CI 2·6-3·7) as in men (1·7%; 1·3-2·1, p<0·0001). Among men, partner's HIV-positive status (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2·67, 1·06-6·82, p=0·040) or unknown serostatus (aHR 4·64, 2·32-9·27, p<0·0001) in the past 6 months predicted HIV seroconversion. Among women, significant predictors included not being married (aHR 2·90, 1·44-5·84, p=0·0030), having a spouse who lives elsewhere (aHR 2·66, 1·29-5·45, p=0·0078), and having a partner in the past 6 months with unknown HIV status (aHR 2·87, 1·44-5·84, p=0·0030). INTERPRETATION: Swaziland has the highest national HIV incidence in the world. In high-prevalence countries, population-based incidence measures and programmes that further expand HIV testing and support disclosure of HIV status are needed. FUNDING: President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Epidemic spread of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Numerous reports have documented isolated transmission events or clonal outbreaks of multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains, but knowledge of their epidemic spread remains limited. In this study, we evaluated drug resistance, strain diversity, and clustering rates in patients diagnosed with multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) at the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) Central TB Laboratory in Johannesburg, South Africa, between March 2004 and December 2007. Phenotypic drug susceptibility testing was done using the indirect proportion method, while each isolate was genotyped using a combination of spoligotyping and 12-MIRU typing (12-locus multiple interspersed repetitive unit typing). Isolates from 434 MDR-TB patients were evaluated, of which 238 (54.8%) were resistant to four first-line drugs (isoniazid, rifampin, ethambutol, and streptomycin). Spoligotyping identified 56 different strains and 28 clusters of variable size (2 to 71 cases per cluster) with a clustering rate of 87.1%. Ten clusters included 337 (77.6%) of all cases, with strains of the Beijing genotype being most prevalent (16.4%). Combined analysis of spoligotyping and 12-MIRU typing increased the discriminatory power (Hunter Gaston discriminatory index [HGDI] = 0.962) and reduced the clustering rate to 66.8%. Resolution of Beijing genotype strains was further enhanced with the 24-MIRU-VNTR (variable-number tandem repeat) typing method by identifying 15 subclusters and 19 unique strains from twelve 12-MIRU clusters. High levels of clustering among a variety of strains suggest a true epidemic spread of MDR-TB in the study setting, emphasizing the urgency of early diagnosis and effective treatment to reduce transmission within this community.

Population structure of multi- and extensively drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains in South Africa.

Genotyping of multidrug-resistant (MDR) Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains isolated from tuberculosis (TB) patients in four South African provinces (Western Cape, Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, and Gauteng) revealed a distinct population structure of the MDR strains in all four regions, despite the evidence of substantial human migration between these settings. In all analyzed provinces, a negative correlation between strain diversity and an increasing level of drug resistance (from MDR-TB to extensively drug-resistant TB [XDR-TB]) was observed. Strains predominating in XDR-TB in the Western and Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces were strongly associated with harboring an inhA promoter mutation, potentially suggesting a role of these mutations in XDR-TB development in South Africa. Approximately 50% of XDR-TB cases detected in the Western Cape were due to strains probably originating from the Eastern Cape. This situation may illustrate how failure of efficient health care delivery in one setting can burden health clinics in other areas.