Efficacy and safety of a mineral and vitamin treatment on symptoms of antenatal depression: 12-week fully blinded randomised placebo-controlled trial (NUTRIMUM).

BACKGROUND: Broad-spectrum micronutrients (minerals and vitamins) have shown benefit for treatment of depressive symptoms. AIMS: To determine whether additional micronutrients reduce symptoms of antenatal depression. METHOD: Eighty-eight medication-free pregnant women at 12-24 weeks gestation, who scored ≥13 on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), were randomised 1:1 to micronutrients or active placebo (containing iodine and riboflavin), for 12 weeks. Micronutrient doses were generally between recommended dietary allowance and tolerable upper level. Primary outcomes (EPDS and Clinical Global Impression - Improvement Scale (CGI-I)) were analysed with constrained longitudinal data analysis. RESULTS: Seventeen (19%) women dropped out, with no group differences, and four (4.5%) gave birth before trial completion. Both groups improved on the EPDS, with no group differences (P = 0.1018); 77.3% taking micronutrients and 72.7% taking placebos were considered recovered. However, the micronutrient group demonstrated significantly greater improvement, based on CGI-I clinician ratings, over time (P = 0.0196). The micronutrient group had significantly greater improvement on sleep and global assessment of functioning, and were more likely to identify themselves as 'much' to 'very much' improved (68.8%) compared with placebo (38.5%) (odds ratio 3.52, P = 0.011; number needed to treat: 3). There were no significant group differences on treatment-emergent adverse events, including suicidal ideation. Homocysteine decreased significantly more in the micronutrient group. Presence of personality difficulties, history of psychiatric medication use and higher social support tended to increase micronutrient response compared with placebo. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the benefits of active monitoring on antenatal depression, with added efficacy for overall functioning when taking micronutrients, with no evidence of harm. Trial replication with larger samples and clinically diagnosed depression are needed.

Estimating global economic well-being with unlit settlements.

It is well established that nighttime radiance, measured from satellites, correlates with economic prosperity across the globe. In developing countries, areas with low levels of detected radiance generally indicate limited development - with unlit areas typically being disregarded. Here we combine satellite nighttime lights and the world settlement footprint for the year 2015 to show that 19% of the total settlement footprint of the planet had no detectable artificial radiance associated with it. The majority of unlit settlement footprints are found in Africa (39%), rising to 65% if we consider only rural settlement areas, along with numerous countries in the Middle East and Asia. Significant areas of unlit settlements are also located in some developed countries. For 49 countries spread across Africa, Asia and the Americas we are able to predict and map the wealth class obtained from ~2,400,000 geo-located households based upon the percent of unlit settlements, with an overall accuracy of 87%.

How many people need to classify the same image? A method for optimizing volunteer contributions in binary geographical classifications.

Involving members of the public in image classification tasks that can be tricky to automate is increasingly recognized as a way to complete large amounts of these tasks and promote citizen involvement in science. While this labor is usually provided for free, it is still limited, making it important for researchers to use volunteer contributions as efficiently as possible. Using volunteer labor efficiently becomes complicated when individual tasks are assigned to multiple volunteers to increase confidence that the correct classification has been reached. In this paper, we develop a system to decide when enough information has been accumulated to confidently declare an image to be classified and remove it from circulation. We use a Bayesian approach to estimate the posterior distribution of the mean rating in a binary image classification task. Tasks are removed from circulation when user-defined certainty thresholds are reached. We demonstrate this process using a set of over 4.5 million unique classifications by 2783 volunteers of over 190,000 images assessed for the presence/absence of cropland. If the system outlined here had been implemented in the original data collection campaign, it would have eliminated the need for 59.4% of volunteer ratings. Had this effort been applied to new tasks, it would have allowed an estimated 2.46 times as many images to have been classified with the same amount of labor, demonstrating the power of this method to make more efficient use of limited volunteer contributions. To simplify implementation of this method by other investigators, we provide cutoff value combinations for one set of confidence levels.

Disentangling Niche Theory and Beta Diversity Change.

AbstractBeta diversity describes the differences in species composition among communities. Changes in beta diversity over time are thought to be due to selection based on species' niche characteristics. For example, theory predicts that selection that favors habitat specialists will increase beta diversity. In practice, ecologists struggle to predict how beta diversity changes. To remedy this problem, we propose a novel solution that formally measures selection's effects on beta diversity. Using the Price equation, we show how change in beta diversity over time can be partitioned into fundamental mechanisms including selection among species, variable selection among communities, drift, and immigration. A key finding of our approach is that a species' short-term impact on beta diversity cannot be predicted using information on its long-term environmental requirements (i.e., its niche). We illustrate how our approach can be used to partition causes of diversity change in a montane tropical forest before and after an intense hurricane. Previous work in this system highlighted the resistance of habitat specialists and the recruitment of light-demanding species but was unable to quantify the importance of these effects on beta diversity. Using our approach, we show that changes in beta diversity were consistent with ecological drift. We use these results to highlight the opportunities presented by a synthesis of beta diversity and formal models of selection.

Modelling the emergence dynamics of the western corn rootworm beetle (Diabrotica virgifera virgifera).

The western corn rootworm is an invasive species to Europe and is a major agricultural pest that causes widespread economic and yield losses to maize producers. The Gompertz curve was originally used to model human population mortality. It is a sigmoidal curve where the beginning and end of a period shows the slowest time for growth, and adequately describes observed dynamics of many phenomena. We propose the use of the Gompertz function in a Bayesian Hierarchical framework to model the emergence dynamics of the western corn rootworm beetle. The proposed model includes the use of climatic variables to assess how weather can influence the observed dynamics. We apply the model to Austrian monitoring data collected in 2004-2015.

Urinary neopterin and total neopterin measurements allow monitoring of oxidative stress and inflammation levels of knee and hip arthroplasty patients.

Knee and hip arthroplasty are common surgeries within an aging population. Some data has suggested that knee arthroplasty is more traumatic to the body than hip arthroplasty due to the increased complexity and load bearing nature of the joint. Here, we compare the stress of the two surgeries by measuring urinary neopterin and total neopterin as biomarkers of oxidative stress and inflammation. Urinary neopterin and total neopterin (neopterin + 7,8-dihydroneopterin) levels were analysed in 28 knee and 22 hip arthroplasty patients pre- and post-operatively to determine oxidative stress and inflammation levels. Total neopterin was 31.1% higher with knee arthroplasty (p<0.05). Urinary neopterin was 32.8% higher in the knee arthroplasty group versus hips. The increase in neopterin and total neopterin following a post-surgical decrease in levels was significant in both groups. Levels of neopterin and total neopterin were varied between patients, but all increased following surgery and subsided by day 28. The increased levels of urinary neopterin and total neopterin from knee arthroplasty indicate that knee osteoarthritis and arthroplasty is a more significant trauma to the body than hip osteoarthritis and arthroplasty surgery. This is also shown by faster inflammatory resolution following hip arthroplasty.

Russian forest sequesters substantially more carbon than previously reported.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and transition to a new forest inventory system, Russia has reported almost no change in growing stock (+ 1.8%) and biomass (+ 0.6%). Yet remote sensing products indicate increased vegetation productivity, tree cover and above-ground biomass. Here, we challenge these statistics with a combination of recent National Forest Inventory and remote sensing data to provide an alternative estimate of the growing stock of Russian forests and to assess the relative changes in post-Soviet Russia. Our estimate for the year 2014 is 111 ± 1.3 × 109 m3, or 39% higher than the value in the State Forest Register. Using the last Soviet Union report as a reference, Russian forests have accumulated 1163 × 106 m3 yr-1 of growing stock between 1988-2014, which balances the net forest stock losses in tropical countries. Our estimate of the growing stock of managed forests is 94.2 × 109 m3, which corresponds to sequestration of 354 Tg C yr-1 in live biomass over 1988-2014, or 47% higher than reported in the National Greenhouse Gases Inventory.

Soil cadmium mobilisation by dissolved organic matter from soil amendments.

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) release from Cd contaminated soils been linked to mobilisation of the metal as Cd-DOM complexes and this may be exacerbated by organic matter-rich soil amendments. The quantity and quality of the DOM can determine the proportion of dissolved Cd that partitions to mobile complexes and their stability and, thus, the potential for Cd transport from contaminated soils. The aim of this work was to examine differences in Cd mobilisation from soils to which different types of soil amendments/conditioners have been applied and the importance of DOM characteristics in determining the extent to which this can happen. Three soils were spiked with Cd to 2 mg kg-1, allowed to equilibrate and then treated with compost and peat. These soils and an untreated subsample of each soil were then adjusted to three different pHs: 5.6, 6.4 and 7.4, using lime. The amount of Cd mobilised from each soil was tested using a column leaching experiment. Ultrafiltration and speciation modelling were used to determine amounts of Cd as DOM-complexed, "truly" dissolved (<5 kDa) and colloidal species, while DOM quality was assessed using UV-Vis and fluorescence spectroscopy. Most colloidal Cd was mobilised from the compost treated soils (50%-60%), followed by the peat treated soils (20-44%). The relationships between colloidal Cd, DOC concentration and soil pH, together with the spectroscopic and modelling results showed that structural properties of DOM are an important factor in mobilising Cd from contaminated soils.

Expressing uncertainty in Human-Robot interaction.

Most people struggle to understand probability which is an issue for Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) researchers who need to communicate risks and uncertainties to the participants in their studies, the media and policy makers. Previous work showed that even the use of numerical values to express probabilities does not guarantee an accurate understanding by laypeople. We therefore investigate if words can be used to communicate probability, such as "likely" and "almost certainly not". We embedded these phrases in the context of the usage of autonomous vehicles. The results show that the association of phrases to percentages is not random and there is a preferred order of phrases. The association is, however, not as consistent as hoped for. Hence, it would be advisable to complement the use of words with numerical expression of uncertainty. This study provides an empirically verified list of probabilities phrases that HRI researchers can use to complement the numerical values.

GWAS on longitudinal growth traits reveals different genetic factors influencing infant, child, and adult BMI.

Early childhood growth patterns are associated with adult health, yet the genetic factors and the developmental stages involved are not fully understood. Here, we combine genome-wide association studies with modeling of longitudinal growth traits to study the genetics of infant and child growth, followed by functional, pathway, genetic correlation, risk score, and colocalization analyses to determine how developmental timings, molecular pathways, and genetic determinants of these traits overlap with those of adult health. We found a robust overlap between the genetics of child and adult body mass index (BMI), with variants associated with adult BMI acting as early as 4 to 6 years old. However, we demonstrated a completely distinct genetic makeup for peak BMI during infancy, influenced by variation at the LEPR/LEPROT locus. These findings suggest that different genetic factors control infant and child BMI. In light of the obesity epidemic, these findings are important to inform the timing and targets of prevention strategies.

Spatio-temporal analysis of differences in campylobacteriosis incidence between urban and rural areas in the Southern District Health Board, New Zealand.

The objective of this paper is to investigate differences in campylobacteriosis incidence between urban and rural areas in the Southern District Health Board of New Zealand between 2000 and 2015. The data were analysed using a Bayesian change-point model to evaluate how campylobacteriosis incidence changed over time and to see whether the dynamics differed between rural and urban areas. A conditional auto regressive error term was introduced to account for any spatial effects. The results of our analysis showed that campylobacteriosis incidence increased between 2000 and 2005, decreased between 2006 and 2008 then stabilised from 2009 onward. In addition we found that the changes in incidence were greater in urban areas than in rural ones.

Long seed dispersal distances by an inquisitive flightless rail (Gallirallus australis) are reduced by interaction with humans.

Human presence is becoming increasingly ubiquitous, but the influence this has on the seed dispersal services performed by frugivorous animals is largely unknown. The New Zealand weka (Gallirallus australis) is an inquisitive flightless rail that frequently congregates in areas of high human use. Weka are important seed dispersers, yet the seed dispersal services they provide are still poorly understood. We estimated seed dispersal distances of weka for two plant species (Prumnopitys ferruginea and Elaeocarpus dentatus) and tested how human interaction affected these dispersal distances. We estimated weka seed dispersal distances by combining GPS data from 39 weka over three sites with weka seed retention time data in a mechanistic model. The mean seed retention times were extremely long (38-125 h). Weka were highly effective dispersers, dispersing 93-96% of seeds away from parent canopies, and 1% of seeds over 1 km. However, we found evidence of a significant human impact on the seed dispersal distances of weka, with birds occupying areas of high human use performing 34.8-40.9% shorter distances than their more remote counterparts. This represents an example of cryptic function loss, where although weka are still present in the ecosystem, their seed dispersal services are impaired by human interaction.

Estimating the global distribution of field size using crowdsourcing.

There is an increasing evidence that smallholder farms contribute substantially to food production globally, yet spatially explicit data on agricultural field sizes are currently lacking. Automated field size delineation using remote sensing or the estimation of average farm size at subnational level using census data are two approaches that have been used. However, both have limitations, for example, automatic field size delineation using remote sensing has not yet been implemented at a global scale while the spatial resolution is very coarse when using census data. This paper demonstrates a unique approach to quantifying and mapping agricultural field size globally using crowdsourcing. A campaign was run in June 2017, where participants were asked to visually interpret very high resolution satellite imagery from Google Maps and Bing using the Geo-Wiki application. During the campaign, participants collected field size data for 130 K unique locations around the globe. Using this sample, we have produced the most accurate global field size map to date and estimated the percentage of different field sizes, ranging from very small to very large, in agricultural areas at global, continental, and national levels. The results show that smallholder farms occupy up to 40% of agricultural areas globally, which means that, potentially, there are many more smallholder farms in comparison with the two different current global estimates of 12% and 24%. The global field size map and the crowdsourced data set are openly available and can be used for integrated assessment modeling, comparative studies of agricultural dynamics across different contexts, for training and validation of remote sensing field size delineation, and potential contributions to the Sustainable Development Goal of Ending hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.

Introduction of mammalian seed predators and the loss of an endemic flightless bird impair seed dispersal of the New Zealand tree Elaeocarpus dentatus.

Understanding the mutualistic services provided by species is critical when considering both the consequences of their loss or the benefits of their reintroduction. Like many other Pacific islands, New Zealand seed dispersal networks have been changed by both significant losses of large frugivorous birds and the introduction of invasive mammals. These changes are particularly concerning when important dispersers remain unidentified. We tested the impact of frugivore declines and invasive seed predators on seed dispersal for an endemic tree, hinau Elaeocarpus dentatus, by comparing seed dispersal and predation rates on the mainland of New Zealand with offshore sanctuary islands with higher bird and lower mammal numbers. We used cameras and seed traps to measure predation and dispersal from the ground and canopy, respectively. We found that canopy fruit handling rates (an index of dispersal quantity) were poor even on island sanctuaries (only 14% of seeds captured below parent trees on islands had passed through a bird), which suggests that hinau may be adapted for ground-based dispersal by flightless birds. Ground-based dispersal of hinau was low on the New Zealand mainland compared to sanctuary islands (4% of seeds dispersed on the mainland vs. 76% dispersed on islands), due to low frugivore numbers. A flightless endemic rail (Gallirallus australis) conducted the majority of ground-based fruit removal on islands. Despite being threatened, this rail is controversial in restoration projects because of its predatory impacts on native fauna. Our study demonstrates the importance of testing which species perform important mutualistic services, rather than simply relying on logical assumptions.

Spatial distribution of arable and abandoned land across former Soviet Union countries.

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of agricultural abandonment following the collapse of the Soviet Union is highly uncertain. To help improve this situation, we have developed a new map of arable and abandoned land for 2010 at a 10 arc-second resolution. We have fused together existing land cover and land use maps at different temporal and spatial scales for the former Soviet Union (fSU) using a training data set collected from visual interpretation of very high resolution (VHR) imagery. We have also collected an independent validation data set to assess the map accuracy. The overall accuracies of the map by region and country, i.e. Caucasus, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation and Ukraine, are 90±2%, 84±2%, 92±1%, 78±3%, 95±1%, 83±2%, respectively. This new product can be used for numerous applications including the modelling of biogeochemical cycles, land-use modelling, the assessment of trade-offs between ecosystem services and land-use potentials (e.g., agricultural production), among others.

LEGO products have become more complex.

The LEGO Group has become the largest toy company in the world and they can look back to a proud history of more than 50 years of producing bricks and other toys. Starting with a simple set of basic bricks their range of toys appeared to have increased in complexity over the years. We processed the inventories of most sets from 1955-2015 and our analysis showed that LEGO sets have become bigger, more colorful and more specialized. The vocabulary of bricks has increased significantly resulting in sets sharing fewer bricks. The increased complexity of LEGO sets and bricks enables skilled builders to design ever more amazing models but it may also overwhelm less skilled or younger builders.

Evaluating statistical model performance in water quality prediction.

Exposure to contaminated water while swimming or boating or participating in other recreational activities can cause gastrointestinal and respiratory disease. It is not uncommon for water bodies to experience rapid fluctuations in water quality, and it is therefore vital to be able to predict them accurately and in time so as to minimise population's exposure to pathogenic organisms. E. coli is commonly used as an indicator to measure water quality in freshwater, and higher counts of E. coli are associated with increased risk to illness. In this case study, we compare the performance of a wide range of statistical models in prediction of water quality via E. coli levels for the weekly data collected over the summer months from 2006 to 2014 at the recreational site on the Oreti river in Wallacetown, New Zealand. The models include naive model, multiple linear regression, dynamic regression, regression tree, Markov chain, classification tree, random forests, multinomial logistic regression, discriminant analysis and Bayesian network. The results show that Bayesian network was superior to all the other models. Overall, it had a leave-one-out and k-fold cross validation error rate of 21%, while predicting the majority of instances of E. coli levels classified as unsafe by the Microbiological Water Quality Guidelines for Marine and Freshwater Recreational Areas 2003, New Zealand. Because Bayesian networks are also flexible in handling missing data and outliers and allow for continuous updating in real time, we have found them to be a promising tool, and in the future, plan to extend the analysis beyond the current case study site.

Uncertainty in soil data can outweigh climate impact signals in global crop yield simulations.

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are increasingly used for agro-environmental assessments and estimates of climate change impacts on food production. Recently, the influence of climate data and weather variability on GGCM outcomes has come under detailed scrutiny, unlike the influence of soil data. Here we compare yield variability caused by the soil type selected for GGCM simulations to weather-induced yield variability. Without fertilizer application, soil-type-related yield variability generally outweighs the simulated inter-annual variability in yield due to weather. Increasing applications of fertilizer and irrigation reduce this variability until it is practically negligible. Importantly, estimated climate change effects on yield can be either negative or positive depending on the chosen soil type. Soils thus have the capacity to either buffer or amplify these impacts. Our findings call for improvements in soil data available for crop modelling and more explicit accounting for soil variability in GGCM simulations.

Have LEGO Products Become More Violent?

Although television, computer games and the Internet play an important role in the lives of children they still also play with physical toys, such as dolls, cars and LEGO bricks. The LEGO company has become the world's largest toy manufacturer. Our study investigates if the LEGO company's products have become more violent over time. First, we analyzed the frequency of weapon bricks in LEGO sets. Their use has significantly increased. Second, we empirically investigated the perceived violence in the LEGO product catalogs from the years 1978-2014. Our results show that the violence of the depicted products has increased significantly over time. The LEGO Company's products are not as innocent as they used to be.

Nesting Ecology of a Small Montane Population of the Nigerian/Cameroon Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes ellioti) in Nigeria.

Understanding nest site choice by chimpanzees has implications for ecology, anthropology, and in the collection of census data, yet it remains controversial. Here we provide the first information on environmental factors affecting nest site choice in a montane population of the rare and relatively understudied Nigerian/Cameroon chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes ellioti) in Ngel Nyaki Forest Reserve, Nigeria. The forest is small, isolated, and visited by researchers, community members, and hunters. We also tested the hypothesis that people (researchers) walking along forest trails collecting data on a regular basis since 2005 will have changed nesting behaviour in the vicinity of the trails. Along the trails searched for nests, the chimpanzees used a subset of 35 (28.5%) of all available tree species. The top 5 nest tree species represented 16% of all non-nest tree species. The nest trees were on steeper than average slopes and the trees themselves were shorter and had a smaller DBH (diameter at breast height) than trees without nests. We found no evidence to suggest a change in nesting behaviour along trails compared with off trails; however, the average nest height today is considerably higher than it was in 2004, which may indicate a change in behaviour across the whole forest.