Conserving evolutionary history does not result in greater diversity over geological time scales.

Alternative prioritization strategies have been proposed to safeguard biodiversity over macroevolutionary time scales. The first prioritizes the most distantly related species-maximizing phylogenetic diversity (PD)-in the hopes of capturing at least some lineages that will successfully diversify into the future. The second prioritizes lineages that are currently speciating, in the hopes that successful lineages will continue to generate species into the future. These contrasting schemes also map onto contrasting predictions about the role of slow diversifiers in the production of biodiversity over palaeontological time scales. We consider the performance of the two schemes across 10 dated species-level palaeo-phylogenetic trees ranging from Foraminifera to dinosaurs. We find that prioritizing PD for conservation generally led to fewer subsequent lineages, while prioritizing diversifiers led to modestly more subsequent diversity, compared with random sets of lineages. Importantly for conservation, the tree shape when decisions are made cannot predict which scheme will be most successful. These patterns are inconsistent with the notion that long-lived lineages are the source of new species. While there may be sound reasons for prioritizing PD for conservation, long-term species production might not be one of them.

Evolutionarily distinct amphibians are disproportionately lost from human-modified ecosystems.

Humans continue to alter terrestrial ecosystems, but our understanding of how biodiversity responds is still limited. Anthropogenic habitat conversion has been associated with the loss of evolutionarily distinct bird species at local scales, but whether this evolutionary pattern holds across other clades is unknown. We collate a global dataset on amphibian assemblages in intact forests and nearby human-modified sites to assess whether evolutionary history influences susceptibility to land conversion. We found that evolutionarily distinct amphibian species are disproportionately lost when forested habitats are converted to alternative land-uses. We tested the hypothesis that grassland-associated amphibian lineages have both higher diversification and are pre-adapted to human landscapes, but found only weak evidence supporting this. The loss of evolutionarily distinct amphibians with land conversion suggests that preserving remnant forests will be vital if we aim to preserve the amphibian tree of life in the face of mounting anthropogenic pressures.

The global diversity of birds in space and time.

Current global patterns of biodiversity result from processes that operate over both space and time and thus require an integrated macroecological and macroevolutionary perspective. Molecular time trees have advanced our understanding of the tempo and mode of diversification and have identified remarkable adaptive radiations across the tree of life. However, incomplete joint phylogenetic and geographic sampling has limited broad-scale inference. Thus, the relative prevalence of rapid radiations and the importance of their geographic settings in shaping global biodiversity patterns remain unclear. Here we present, analyse and map the first complete dated phylogeny of all 9,993 extant species of birds, a widely studied group showing many unique adaptations. We find that birds have undergone a strong increase in diversification rate from about 50 million years ago to the near present. This acceleration is due to a number of significant rate increases, both within songbirds and within other young and mostly temperate radiations including the waterfowl, gulls and woodpeckers. Importantly, species characterized with very high past diversification rates are interspersed throughout the avian tree and across geographic space. Geographically, the major differences in diversification rates are hemispheric rather than latitudinal, with bird assemblages in Asia, North America and southern South America containing a disproportionate number of species from recent rapid radiations. The contribution of rapidly radiating lineages to both temporal diversification dynamics and spatial distributions of species diversity illustrates the benefits of an inclusive geographical and taxonomical perspective. Overall, whereas constituent clades may exhibit slowdowns, the adaptive zone into which modern birds have diversified since the Cretaceous may still offer opportunities for diversification.

Can sexual selection drive female life histories? A comparative study on Galliform birds.

Sexual selection has been identified as a major evolutionary force shaping male life history traits but its impact on female life history evolution is less clear. Here we examine the impact of sexual selection on three key female traits (body size, egg size and clutch size) in Galliform birds. Using comparative independent contrast analyses and directional discrete analyses, based on published data and a new genera-level supertree phylogeny of Galliform birds, we investigated how sexual selection [quantified as sexual size dimorphism (SSD) and social mating system (MS)] affects these three important female traits. We found that female body mass was strongly and positively correlated with egg size but not with clutch size, and that clutch size decreased as egg size increased. We established that SSD was related to MS, and then used SSD as a proxy of the strength of sexual selection. We found both a positive relationship between SSD and female body mass and egg size and that increases in female body mass and egg size tend to occur following increases in SSD in this bird order. This pattern of female body mass increases lagging behind changes in SSD, established using our directional discrete analysis, suggests that female body mass increases as a response to increases in the level of sexual selection and not simply through a strong genetic relationship with male body mass. This suggests that sexual selection is linked to changes in female life history traits in Galliformes and we discuss how this link may shape patterns of life history variation among species.

Range-restricted, specialist Bornean butterflies are less likely to recover from ENSO-induced disturbance.

The forest fires induced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 1997-1998 resulted in the temporary extirpation of more than 100 lowland butterfly species at a forest site in Borneo. Species with more restricted ranges were less likely to recover over the following four years. Matched-pair analyses revealed that species with lower initial abundances, restricted geographic ranges, and more specialized larvae were less likely to return. Specialization differed predictably between the (more generalist) wide-range and (more specialized) restricted-range species in our data set, and both geographic range and level of specialization were important in multivariate models. These are the first observations directly linking extent of occurrence, ecological specialization, and observed recovery following local extirpation. If recovery time exceeds the frequency of disturbance, local extirpation can lead to local extinction. Given that ENSO-induced disturbances are increasing in frequency, in severity, and in geographic scale, these results suggest that specialist species with restricted geographic ranges could be at particularly high risk of global extinction.

Variable assortative mating in replicate mating trials using Drosophila melanogaster populations derived from contrasting opposing slopes of 'Evolution Canyon', Israel.

Significant assortative mating in laboratory studies has been previously shown between two populations of Drosophila melanogaster collected from micro-climactically contrasting and opposing slopes of 'Evolution Canyon' (Lower Nahal Oren, Israel; Korol et al., 2000). Coupled with evidence that the two populations are adapted to their respective environments, this has been suggested as a rare example of ongoing behaviourally mediated speciation occurring in the face of gene flow. Reproductive isolation between these populations, however, has never been confirmed by replicate experiments in an independent laboratory. For this reason, we tested recent collections of these populations for premating isolation in both the original (Haifa) and a new (Burnaby) laboratory under a variety of experimental protocols. Although non-random mating was found in the majority of trials conducted in Haifa, we were unable to replicate these strong results in Burnaby. Most notably, we failed to detect assortative mating in four separate double choice experiments. Significant non-random mating was detected, however, in three of six single choice experiments in Burnaby, suggesting that the populations are behaviourally differentiated in some manner. Why nonrandom mating was weaker in Burnaby than Haifa is not understood, but suggests that assortative mating may be sensitive to unknown environmental factors.

Testing hypotheses about ecological specialization using phylogenetic trees.

It is often assumed that ecological specialization represents an evolutionary "dead-end" that limits further evolution. Maximum-likelihood (ML) analyses on phylogenies for 15 groups of phytophagous insects revealed that high transition rates both to and from specialization occurred, but that the mean ratio of rates was significantly biased toward a higher rate to specialization. Here we explore the consequences of the fact that transition rates inferred by ML are affected not only by the distribution, but also by the frequency, of character states. Higher rates to the more common state were inferred in the analyses of Nosil (2002), in similar studies published since 2002, and in a small set of simulations. Thus, the ratio of the rate toward versus away from specialization was strongly, positively correlated with the proportion of specialist species at the tips of the phylogeny and whether transitions away from specialization occur remains unclear. Here we reexamine these data using methods that do not rely on directly comparing transition rates. Maximum-likelihood analyses show that models with no transitions in one direction (e.g., irreversible evolution as predicted by the "specialist as dead end" framework) are usually strongly rejected, independent of the proportion of specialists at the tips. Ancestral state reconstruction revealed two instances where generalists were unambiguously derived from specialists. Transition rates would need to biased 100-fold and 5000-fold toward specialization to reconstruct a history where these shifts from specialization toward generalization do not occur. The general conclusions of Nosil (2002) appear to hold; transitions in either direction likely occur such that specialization does not always limit further evolution. Most generally, inferences regarding character evolution can be strengthened by comparing models of character change and examining ancestor states, rather than only comparing parameter values.

Phylogenetically patterned speciation rates and extinction risks change the loss of evolutionary history during extinctions.

If we are to plan conservation strategies that minimize the loss of evolutionary history through human-caused extinctions, we must understand how this loss is related to phylogenetic patterns in current extinction risks and past speciation rates. Nee & May (1997, Science 278, 692-694) showed that for a randomly evolving clade (i) a single round of random extinction removed relatively little evolutionary history, and (ii) extinction management (choosing which taxa to sacrifice) offered only marginal improvement. However, both speciation rates and extinction risks vary across lineages within real clades. We simulated evolutionary trees with phylogenetically patterned speciation rates and extinction risks (closely related lineages having similar rates and risks) and then subjected them to several biologically informed models of extinction. Increasing speciation rate variation increases the extinction-management pay-off. When extinction risks vary among lineages but are uncorrelated with speciation rates, extinction removes more history (compared with random trees), but the difference is small. When extinction risks vary and are correlated with speciation rates, history loss can dramatically increase (negative correlation) or decrease (positive correlation) with speciation rate variation. The loss of evolutionary history via human-caused extinctions may therefore be more severe, yet more manageable, than first suggested.

Metabolic rate, generation time, and the rate of molecular evolution in birds.

A recent hypothesis suggests that resting metabolic rate, measured as energy expended per unit body mass per unit time, might be implicated in the rate of nucleotide substitution in animals. Using relative rate tests on DNA-DNA hybridization data from birds, we show that generation time is significantly correlated with genetic distance between members of an ingroup and an outgroup taxon, but that neither metabolic rate nor body mass explain variation consistent with the hypothesis, either alone or with generation time.

Tempo and mode of evolution revealed from molecular phylogenies.

The analysis of the tempo and mode of evolution has a strong tradition in paleontology. Recent advances in molecular phylogenetic reconstruction make it possible to complement this work by using data from extant species.