Burden of Disease of COVID-19: Strengthening the Collaboration for National Studies.

Objectives: Quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality is a key enabler to assessing the impact of COVID-19 across countries and within countries relative to other diseases, regions, or demographics. Differences in methods, data sources, and definitions of mortality due to COVID-19 may hamper comparisons. We describe efforts to support countries in estimating the national-level burden of COVID-19 using disability-adjusted life years. Methods: The European Burden of Disease Network developed a consensus methodology, as well as a range of capacity-building activities to support burden of COVID-19 studies. These activities have supported 11 national studies so far, with study periods between January 2020 and December 2021. Results: National studies dealt with various data gaps and different assumptions were made to face knowledge gaps. Still, they delivered broadly comparable results that allow for interpretation of consistencies, as well as differences in the quantified direct health impact of the pandemic. Discussion: Harmonized efforts and methodologies have allowed for comparable estimates and communication of results. Future studies should evaluate the impact of interventions, and unravel the indirect health impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

Factors related to under-treatment of secondary cardiovascular risk, including primary healthcare: Australian National Health Survey linked data analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To inform national evidence gaps on cardiovascular disease (CVD) preventive medication use and factors relating to under-treatment - including primary healthcare engagement - among CVD survivors in Australia. METHODS: Data from 884 participants with self-reported CVD from the 2014-15 National Health Survey were linked to primary care and pharmaceutical dispensing data for 2016 through the Multi-Agency Data Integration Project. Logistic regression quantified the relation of combined blood pressure- and lipid-lowering medication use to participant characteristics. RESULTS: Overall, 94.8% had visited a general practitioner (GP) and 40.0% were on both blood pressure- and lipid-lowering medications. Medication use was least likely in: women versus men (OR=0.49[95%CI:0.37-0.65]), younger participants (e.g. 45-64y versus 65-85y: OR=0.58[0.42-0.79])and current versus never-smokers (OR=0.73[0.44-1.20]). Treatment was more likely in those with ≥9 versus ≤4 conditions (OR=2.15[1.39-3.31]), with ≥11 versus 0-2 GP visits/year (OR=2.62[1.53-4.48]) and with individual CVD risk factors (e.g. high blood pressure OR=3.13 [2.34-4.19]) versus without); the latter even accounting for GP service-use frequency. CONCLUSIONS: Younger people, smokers, those with infrequent GP visits or without CVD risk factors were the least likely to be on medication. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Substantial under-treatment, even among those using GP services, indicates opportunities to prevent further CVD events in primary care.

Education-related inequalities in cause-specific mortality: first estimates for Australia using individual-level linked census and mortality data.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in mortality are evident in all high-income countries, and ongoing monitoring is recommended using linked census-mortality data. Using such data, we provide the first estimates of education-related inequalities in cause-specific mortality in Australia, suitable for international comparisons. METHODS: We used Australian Census (2016) linked to 13 months of Death Registrations (2016-17). We estimated relative rates (RR) and rate differences (RD, per 100 000 person-years), comparing rates in low (no qualifications) and intermediate (secondary school) with high (tertiary) education for individual causes of death (among those aged 25-84 years) and grouped according to preventability (25-74 years), separately by sex and age group, adjusting for age, using negative binomial regression. RESULTS: Among 13.9 M people contributing 14 452 732 person-years, 84 743 deaths occurred. All-cause mortality rates among men and women aged 25-84 years with low education were 2.76 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.61-2.91] and 2.13 (2.01-2.26) times the rates of those with high education, respectively. We observed inequalities in most causes of death in each age-sex group. Among men aged 25-44 years, relative and absolute inequalities were largest for injuries, e.g. transport accidents [RR = 10.1 (5.4-18.7), RD = 21.2 (14.5-27.9)]). Among those aged 45-64 years, inequalities were greatest for chronic diseases, e.g. lung cancer [men RR = 6.6 (4.9-8.9), RD = 57.7 (49.7-65.8)] and ischaemic heart disease [women RR = 5.8 (3.7-9.1), RD = 20.2 (15.8-24.6)], with similar patterns for people aged 65-84 years. When grouped according to preventability, inequalities were large for causes amenable to behaviour change and medical intervention for all ages and causes amenable to injury prevention among young men. CONCLUSIONS: Australian education-related inequalities in mortality are substantial, generally higher than international estimates, and related to preventability. Findings highlight opportunities to reduce them and the potential to improve the health of the population.

Value of a national burden-of-disease study: a comparison of estimates between the Australian Burden of Disease Study 2015 and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of burden of disease are important for monitoring population health, informing policy and service planning. Burden estimates for the same population can be reported differently by national studies [e.g. the Australian Burden of Disease Study (ABDS) and the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBDS)]. METHODS: Australian ABDS 2015 and GBDS 2017 burden estimates and methods for 2015 were compared. Years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) measures were compared for overall burden and 'top 50' causes. Disease-category definitions (based on ICD-10), redistribution algorithms, data sources, disability weights, modelling methods and assumptions were reviewed. RESULTS: GBDS 2017 estimated higher totals than ABDS 2015 for YLL, YLD and DALY for Australia. YLL differences were mainly driven by differences in the allocation of deaths to disease categories and the redistribution of implausible causes of death. For YLD, the main drivers were data sources, severity distributions and modelling strategies. Most top-50 diseases for DALY had a similar YLL:YLD composition reported. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in the ABDS and GBDS estimates reflect the different purposes of local and international studies and differences in data and modelling strategies. The GBDS uses all available evidence and is useful for international comparisons. National studies such as the ABDS have the flexibility to meet local needs and often the advantage of access to unpublished data. It is important that all data sources, inputs and models be assessed for quality and appropriateness. As studies evolve, differences should be accounted for through increased transparency of data and methods.

History and development of national burden of disease assessment in Australia.

Australia's 1996 national burden of disease (BoD) study was one of the first in the world and updates have continued over the following two decades with the fifth study now underway. The studies adapt the global framework most recently implemented by the Global Burden of Disease Study and the World Health Organization to suit Australia's specific needs, producing estimates of fatal and non-fatal burden via the Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) metric, as well as attribution of the burden to many risk factors. Detailed Australian data are used with minimal reliance on modelling to fill data gaps. Comprehensive estimates are produced, including for the Indigenous population, for each of the eight states and territories, the five remoteness areas and five socioeconomic quintiles. A number of method developments have been made as part of these studies, including redistribution of deaths data and a detailed quality framework for describing the robustness of the underlying data and methods. Data and methods continue to be refined as part of the studies, and developments in global studies and other national studies are incorporated where appropriate.

Education inequalities in adult all-cause mortality: first national data for Australia using linked census and mortality data.

BACKGROUND: National linked mortality and census data have not previously been available for Australia. We estimated education-based mortality inequalities from linked census and mortality data that are suitable for international comparisons. METHODS: We used the Australian Bureau of Statistics Death Registrations to Census file, with data on deaths (2011-2012) linked probabilistically to census data (linkage rate 81%). To assess validity, we compared mortality rates by age group (25-44, 45-64, 65-84 years), sex and area-inequality measures to those based on complete death registration data. We used negative binomial regression to quantify inequalities in all-cause mortality in relation to five levels of education ['Bachelor degree or higher' (highest) to 'no Year 12 and no post-secondary qualification' (lowest)], separately by sex and age group, adjusting for single year of age and correcting for linkage bias and missing education data. RESULTS: Mortality rates and area-based inequality estimates were comparable to published national estimates. Men aged 25-84 years with the lowest education had age-adjusted mortality rates 2.20 [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.08‒2.33] times those of men with the highest education. Among women, the rate ratio was 1.64 (1.55‒1.74). Rate ratios were 3.87 (3.38‒4.44) in men and 2.57 (2.15‒3.07) in women aged 25-44 years, decreasing to 1.68 (1.60‒1.76) in men and 1.44 (1.36‒1.53) in women aged 65-84 years. Absolute education inequalities increased with age. One in three to four deaths (31%) was associated with less than Bachelor level education. CONCLUSIONS: These linked national data enabled valid estimates of education inequality in mortality suitable for international comparisons. The magnitude of relative inequality is substantial and similar to that reported for other high-income countries.

Evaluating recruitment strategies for AUSPICE, a large Australian community-based randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the effectiveness of different strategies for recruiting participants for a large Australian randomised controlled trial (RCT), the Australian Study for the Prevention through Immunisation of Cardiovascular Events (AUSPICE). DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Men and women aged 55-60 years with at least two cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, overweight/obesity) were recruited for a multicentre placebo-controlled RCT assessing the effectiveness of 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (23vPPV) for preventing cardiovascular events. METHODS: Invitations were mailed by the Australian Department of Human Services to people in the Medicare database aged 55-60 years; reminders were sent 2 weeks later. Invitees could respond in hard copy or electronically. Direct recruitment was supplemented by asking invitees to extend the invitation to friends and family (snowball sampling) and by Facebook advertising. MAIN OUTCOME: Proportions of invitees completing screening questionnaire and recruited for participation in the RCT. RESULTS: 21 526 of 154 992 invited people (14%) responded by completing the screening questionnaire, of whom 4725 people were eligible and recruited for the study. Despite the minimal study burden (one questionnaire, one clinic visit), the overall participation rate was 3%, or an estimated 10% of eligible persons. Only 16% of eventual participants had responded within 2 weeks of the initial invitation letter (early responders); early and late responders did not differ in their demographic or medical characteristics. Socio-economic disadvantage did not markedly influence response rates. Facebook advertising and snowball sampling did not increase recruitment. CONCLUSIONS: Trial participation rates are low, and multiple concurrent methods are needed to maximise recruitment. Social media strategies may not be successful in older age groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12615000536561.

Improving the cardiometabolic health of people with psychosis: A protocol for a randomised controlled trial of the Physical Health Nurse Consultant service.

BACKGROUND: Over 690,000 Australians experience psychosis annually, significantly impacting cardiometabolic illness and healthcare costs. Current models of care are fragmented and a critical implementation gap exists regarding the delivery of coordinated physical healthcare for Australians with psychosis. OBJECTIVES: To describe a trial implementing a Physical Health Nurse Consultant (PHNC) role to coordinate physical health care in a community mental health setting. DESIGN/METHODS: In this 24-month, 2-group randomised controlled trial, 160 adults with psychosis will be randomised to usual care, or to the PHNC in addition to usual care. Using the Positive Cardiometabolic Health treatment framework and working in collaborative partnerships with consumers (consumer-led co-design), the PHNC will provide care coordination including referral to appropriate programmes or services based on the treatment framework, with the consumer. Burden of Disease risk factors will be collected according to Australian Bureau of Statistics' National Health Survey guidelines. Consumer experience will be assessed using the 'Access', 'Acceptability' and 'Shared Decision Making' dimensions of the Patient Experiences in Primary Healthcare Survey. Cost-effectiveness will be modelled from Burden of Disease data using the Assessing Cost Effectiveness Prevention methodology. RESULTS: Data collection of two years duration will commence in late 2018. Preliminary findings are expected in December 2019. Primary outcomes will be the effect of the PHNC role on physical healthcare in community-based adults with psychosis. CONCLUSIONS: The PHNC is an innovative approach to physical health care for adults with psychosis which aims to meet the physical health needs of consumers by addressing barriers to physical health care.

Rationale and design of a randomized controlled trial of pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine for prevention of cardiovascular events: The Australian Study for the Prevention through Immunization of Cardiovascular Events (AUSPICE).

BACKGROUND: Research has shown that vaccination with Streptococcus pneumoniae reduced the extent of atherosclerosis in experimental animal models. It is thought that phosphorylcholine lipid antigens in the S. pneumoniae cell wall induce the production of antibodies that cross-react with oxidized low-density lipoprotein, a component of atherosclerotic plaques. These antibodies may bind to and facilitate the regression of the plaques. Available data provide evidence that similar mechanisms also occur in humans, leading to the possibility that pneumococcal vaccination protects against atherosclerosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis, including 8 observational human studies, of adult pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination for preventing cardiovascular disease in people older than 65 years, showed a 17% reduction in the odds (odds ratio 0.83, 95% CI 0.71-0.97) of having an acute coronary syndrome event. METHODS/DESIGN: The AUSPICE is a multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind, clinical trial to formally test whether vaccination with the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine protects against cardiovascular events (fatal and nonfatal acute coronary syndromes and ischemic strokes). Cardiovascular outcomes will be obtained during 4 to 5 years of follow-up, through health record linkage with state and national administrative data sets. CONCLUSION: This is the first registered randomized controlled trial (on US, World Health Organization, Australia and New Zealand trial registries) to be conducted to test whether vaccination with the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine will reduce cardiovascular events. If successful, vaccination can be readily extended to at-risk groups to reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases.

Latest statistics on cardiovascular disease in Australia.

The results presented herein summarize the most up-to-date cardiovascular statistics available at this time in Australia. The analysis presented here is based on and extends results published in two Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) reports, namely Cardiovascular disease: Australian facts 2011 and the cardiovascular disease (CVD) section of Australia's Health 2012. Despite significant improvements in the cardiovascular health of Australians in recent decades, CVD continues to impose a heavy burden on Australians in terms of illness, disability and premature death. Direct health care expenditure for CVD exceeds that for any other disease group. The most recent national data have been analysed to describe patterns and trends in CVD hospitalization and death rates, with additional analysis by Indigenous status, remoteness and socioeconomic group. The incidence of and case-fatality from major coronary events has also been examined. Although CVD death rates have declined steadily in Australia since the late 1960s, CVD still accounts for a larger proportion of deaths (33% in 2009) than any other disease group. Worryingly, the rate at which the coronary heart disease death rate has been falling in recent years has slowed in younger (35-54 years) age groups. Between 1998-99 and 2009-10, the overall rate of hospitalizations for CVD fell by 13%, with declines observed for most major CVDs. In conclusion, CVD disease remains a significant health problem in Australia despite decreasing death and hospitalization rates.

Estimating the total incidence of kidney failure in Australia including individuals who are not treated by dialysis or transplantation.

BACKGROUND: To date, incidence data for kidney failure in Australia have been available for only those who start renal replacement therapy (RRT). Information about the total incidence of kidney failure, including non-RRT-treated cases, is important to help understand the burden of kidney failure in the community and the characteristics of patients who die without receiving treatment. STUDY DESIGN: Data linkage study of national observational data sets. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: All incident treated cases recorded in the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry (ANZDATA) probabilistically linked to incident untreated kidney failure cases derived from national death registration data for 2003-2007. PREDICTOR: Age, sex, and year. OUTCOMES: Kidney failure, a combination of incident RRT or death attributed to kidney failure (without RRT). MEASUREMENTS: Total incidence of kidney failure (treated and untreated) and treatment rates. RESULTS: There were 21,370 incident cases of kidney failure in 2003-2007. The incidence rate was 20.9/100,000 population (95% CI, 18.3-24.0) and was significantly higher among older people and males (26.1/100,000 population; 95% CI, 22.5-30.0) compared with females (17.0/100,000 population; 95% CI, 14.9-19.2). There were similars number of treated (10,949) and untreated (10,421) cases, but treatment rates were influenced highly by age. More than 90% of cases in all age groups between 5 and 60 years were treated, but this percentage decreased sharply for older people; only 4% of cases in persons 85 years or older were treated (ORs for no treatment of 115 [95% CI, 118-204] for men ≥80 years and 400 [95% CI, 301-531] for women ≥80 years compared with women who were <50 years). LIMITATIONS: Cross-sectional design, reliance on accurate coding of kidney failure in death registration data. CONCLUSIONS: Almost all Australians who develop kidney failure at younger than 60 years receive RRT, but treatment rates decrease substantially above that age.

Age-specific trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in the Netherlands between 1980 and 2009.

Recent analyses suggest the decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates is slowing in younger age groups in countries such as the US and the UK. This work aimed to analyse recent trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in the Netherlands. Analysis was of annual all circulatory, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates between 1980 and 2009 for the Netherlands. Data were stratified by sex and 10-year age group (age 35-85+). The annual rate of change and significant changes in the trend were identified using join point Poisson regression. For almost all age and sex groups examined the rate of IHD and cerebrovascular disease mortality in the Netherlands has more than halved between 1980 and 2009. The decline in mortality from both IHD and cerebrovascular disease is continuing for all ages and sex groups, with an acceleration in the decline apparent from the late 1990s/early 2000s. The decline in age-specific all circulatory, coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease mortality rates continues for all age and sex groups in the Netherlands.

Recalibration and validation of the SCORE risk chart in the Australian population: the AusSCORE chart.

BACKGROUND: Development of a validated risk prediction model for future cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australians is a high priority for cardiovascular health strategies. DESIGN: Recalibration of the SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) risk chart based on Australian national mortality data and average major CVD risk factor levels. METHODS: Australian national mortality data (2003-2005) were used to estimate 10-year cumulative CVD mortality rates for people aged 40-74 years. Average age-specific and sex-specific levels of systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and prevalence of current smoking were generated from data obtained in eight Australian large-scale population-based surveys undertaken from the late 1980s. The SCORE risk chart was then recalibrated by applying hazard ratios for 10-year CVD mortality obtained in the SCORE project. Discrimination and calibration of the recalibrated model was evaluated and compared with that of the original SCORE and Framingham equations in the Blue Mountains Eye Study in Australia using Harrell's c and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi statistics, respectively. RESULTS: An Australian risk prediction chart for CVD mortality was derived. Among 1998 Blue Mountains Eye Study participants aged 49-74 years with neither CVD nor diabetes at baseline, the Harrell's c statistics for the Australian risk prediction chart for CVD mortality were 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.84) and 0.71 (confidence interval: 0.62-0.80) in men and women, respectively. The corresponding Hosmer-Lemeshow chi statistics, the measure of calibration, were 2.32 (P = 0.68) and 7.43 (P = 0.11), which were superior to both the SCORE and Framingham equations. CONCLUSION: This new tool provides a valid and reliable method to predict risk of CVD mortality in the general Australian population.