Clinical Relevance of the Tumor Location-Modified Laurén Classification System for Gastric Cancer in a Western Population.

BACKGROUND: The Tumor Location-Modified Laurén Classification (MLC) system combines Laurén histologic subtype and anatomic tumor location. It divides gastric tumors into proximal non-diffuse (PND), distal non-diffuse (DND), and diffuse (D) types. The optimum classification of patients with Laurén mixed tumors in this system is not clear due to its grouping with both diffuse and non-diffuse types in previous studies. The clinical relevance of the MLC in a Western population has not been examined. METHODS: A cohort study investigated 404 patients who underwent gastrectomy for gastric adenocarcinoma between 2005 and 2020. The classification of Laurén mixed tumors was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and comparison of clinicopathologic characteristics (chi-square). Survival analysis was performed using multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: The ROC curve analysis demonstrated a slightly higher area under the curve value for predicting survival when Laurén mixed tumors were grouped with intestinal-type rather than diffuse-type tumors (0.58 vs 0.57). Survival, tumor recurrence, and resection margin positivity in mixed tumors also was more similar to intestinal type. Distal non-diffuse tumors had the best 5-year survival (DND 64.7 % vs PND 56.1 % vs diffuse 45.1 %; p = 0.006) and were least likely to have recurrence (DND 27.0 % vs PND 34.3 % vs diffuse 48.3 %; p = 0.001). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that MLC was an independent prognostic factor for survival (PND: hazard ratio [HR], 1.64; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.16-2.32 vs diffuse: HR, 2.20; 95 % CI, 1.56-3.09) CONCLUSIONS: The MLC was an independent prognostic marker in this Western cohort of patients with gastric adenocarcinoma. The patients with PND and D tumors had worse survival than those with DND tumors.

Resistance to inflammation underlies enhanced fitness in clonal hematopoiesis.

Clonal hematopoiesis results from enhanced fitness of a mutant hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC), but how such clones expand is unclear. We developed a technique that combines mosaic mutagenesis with color labeling of HSPCs to study how acquired mutations affect clonal fitness in a native environment. Mutations in clonal hematopoiesis­associated genes such as asxl1 promoted clonal dominance. Single-cell transcriptional analysis revealed that mutations stimulated expression of proinflammatory genes in mature myeloid cells and anti-inflammatory genes in progenitor cells of the mutant clone. Biallelic loss of one such immunomodulator, nr4a1, abrogated the ability of asxl1-mutant clones to establish clonal dominance. These results support a model where clonal fitness of mutant clones is driven by enhanced resistance to inflammatory signals from their mutant mature cell progeny.

Cost estimation alongside a multi-regional, multi-country randomized trial of antenatal ultrasound in five low-and-middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Improving maternal health has been a primary goal of international health agencies for many years, with the aim of reducing maternal and child deaths and improving access to antenatal care (ANC) services, particularly in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). Health interventions with these aims have received more attention from a clinical effectiveness perspective than for cost impact and economic efficiency. METHODS: We collected data on resource use and costs as part of a large, multi-country study assessing the use of routine antenatal screening ultrasound (US) with the aim of considering the implications for economic efficiency. We assessed typical antenatal outpatient and hospital-based (facility) care for pregnant women, in general, with selective complication-related data collection in women participating in a large maternal health registry and clinical trial in five LMICs. We estimated average costs from a facility/health system perspective for outpatient and inpatient services. We converted all country-level currency cost estimates to 2015 United States dollars (USD). We compared average costs across countries for ANC visits, deliveries, higher-risk pregnancies, and complications, and conducted sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Our study included sites in five countries representing different regions. Overall, the relative cost of individual ANC and delivery-related healthcare use was consistent among countries, generally corresponding to country-specific income levels. ANC outpatient visit cost estimates per patient among countries ranged from 15 to 30 USD, based on average counts for visits with and without US. Estimates for antenatal screening US visits were more costly than non-US visits. Costs associated with higher-risk pregnancies were influenced by rates of hospital delivery by cesarean section (mean per person delivery cost estimate range: 25-65 USD). CONCLUSIONS: Despite substantial differences among countries in infrastructures and health system capacity, there were similarities in resource allocation, delivery location, and country-level challenges. Overall, there was no clear suggestion that adding antenatal screening US would result in either major cost savings or major cost increases. However, antenatal screening US would have higher training and maintenance costs. Given the lack of clinical effectiveness evidence and greater resource constraints of LMICs, it is unlikely that introducing antenatal screening US would be economically efficient in these settings--on the demand side (i.e., patients) or supply side (i.e., healthcare providers). TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial number: NCT01990625 (First posted: November 21, 2013 on https://clinicaltrials.gov ).

Association of haemoglobin levels in the first trimester and at 26-30 weeks with fetal and neonatal outcomes: a secondary analysis of the Global Network for Women's and Children's Health's ASPIRIN Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Limited data are available from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) on the relationship of haemoglobin levels to adverse outcomes at different times during pregnancy. We evaluated the association of haemoglobin levels in nulliparous women at two times in pregnancy with pregnancy outcomes. DESIGN: ASPIRIN Trial data were used to study the association between haemoglobin levels measured at 6+0 -13+6  weeks and 26+0 -30+0  weeks of gestation with fetal and neonatal outcomes. SETTING: Obstetric care facilities in Pakistan, India, Kenya, Zambia, The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Guatemala. POPULATION: A total of 11 976 pregnant women. METHODS: Generalised linear models were used to obtain adjusted relative risks and 95% CI for adverse outcomes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Preterm birth, stillbirth, neonatal death, small for gestational age (SGA) and birthweight <2500 g. RESULTS: The mean haemoglobin levels at 6+0 -13+6  weeks and at 26-30 weeks of gestation were 116 g/l (SD 17) and 107 g/l (SD 15), respectively. In general, pregnancy outcomes were better with increasing haemoglobin. At 6+0 -13+6  weeks of gestation, stillbirth, SGA and birthweight <2500 g, were significantly associated with haemoglobin of 70-89 g/l compared with haemoglobin of 110-129 g/l The relationships of adverse pregnancy outcomes with various haemoglobin levels were more marked at 26-30 weeks of gestation. CONCLUSIONS: Both lower and some higher haemoglobin concentrations are associated with adverse fetal and neonatal outcomes at 6+0 -13+6  weeks and at 26-30 weeks of gestation, although the relationship with low haemoglobin levels appears more consistent and generally stronger. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Both lower and some higher haemoglobin concentrations were associated with adverse fetal and neonatal outcomes at 6-13 weeks and 26-30 weeks of gestation.

Nutrients cause grassland biomass to outpace herbivory.

Human activities are transforming grassland biomass via changing climate, elemental nutrients, and herbivory. Theory predicts that food-limited herbivores will consume any additional biomass stimulated by nutrient inputs ('consumer-controlled'). Alternatively, nutrient supply is predicted to increase biomass where herbivores alter community composition or are limited by factors other than food ('resource-controlled'). Using an experiment replicated in 58 grasslands spanning six continents, we show that nutrient addition and vertebrate herbivore exclusion each caused sustained increases in aboveground live biomass over a decade, but consumer control was weak. However, at sites with high vertebrate grazing intensity or domestic livestock, herbivores consumed the additional fertilization-induced biomass, supporting the consumer-controlled prediction. Herbivores most effectively reduced the additional live biomass at sites with low precipitation or high ambient soil nitrogen. Overall, these experimental results suggest that grassland biomass will outstrip wild herbivore control as human activities increase elemental nutrient supply, with widespread consequences for grazing and fire risk.

Soil net nitrogen mineralisation across global grasslands.

Soil nitrogen mineralisation (Nmin), the conversion of organic into inorganic N, is important for productivity and nutrient cycling. The balance between mineralisation and immobilisation (net Nmin) varies with soil properties and climate. However, because most global-scale assessments of net Nmin are laboratory-based, its regulation under field-conditions and implications for real-world soil functioning remain uncertain. Here, we explore the drivers of realised (field) and potential (laboratory) soil net Nmin across 30 grasslands worldwide. We find that realised Nmin is largely explained by temperature of the wettest quarter, microbial biomass, clay content and bulk density. Potential Nmin only weakly correlates with realised Nmin, but contributes to explain realised net Nmin when combined with soil and climatic variables. We provide novel insights of global realised soil net Nmin and show that potential soil net Nmin data available in the literature could be parameterised with soil and climate data to better predict realised Nmin.

More salt, please: global patterns, responses and impacts of foliar sodium in grasslands.

Sodium is unique among abundant elemental nutrients, because most plant species do not require it for growth or development, whereas animals physiologically require sodium. Foliar sodium influences consumption rates by animals and can structure herbivores across landscapes. We quantified foliar sodium in 201 locally abundant, herbaceous species representing 32 families and, at 26 sites on four continents, experimentally manipulated vertebrate herbivores and elemental nutrients to determine their effect on foliar sodium. Foliar sodium varied taxonomically and geographically, spanning five orders of magnitude. Site-level foliar sodium increased most strongly with site aridity and soil sodium; nutrient addition weakened the relationship between aridity and mean foliar sodium. Within sites, high sodium plants declined in abundance with fertilisation, whereas low sodium plants increased. Herbivory provided an explanation: herbivores selectively reduced high nutrient, high sodium plants. Thus, interactions among climate, nutrients and the resulting nutritional value for herbivores determine foliar sodium biogeography in herbaceous-dominated systems.

Routine antenatal ultrasound in low- and middle-income countries: first look - a cluster randomised trial.

OBJECTIVE: Ultrasound is widely regarded as an important adjunct to antenatal care (ANC) to guide practice and reduce perinatal mortality. We assessed the impact of ANC ultrasound use at health centres in resource-limited countries. DESIGN: Cluster randomised trial. SETTING: Clusters within five countries (Democratic Republic of Congo, Guatemala, Kenya, Pakistan, and Zambia) METHODS: Clusters were randomised to standard ANC or standard care plus two ultrasounds and referral for complications. The study trained providers in intervention clusters to perform basic obstetric ultrasounds. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was a composite of maternal mortality, maternal near-miss mortality, stillbirth, and neonatal mortality. RESULTS: During the 24-month trial, 28 intervention and 28 control clusters had 24 263 and 23 160 births, respectively; 78% in the intervention clusters received at least one study ultrasound; 60% received two. The prevalence of conditions noted including twins, placenta previa, and abnormal lie was within expected ranges. 9% were referred for an ultrasound-diagnosed condition, and 71% attended the referral. The ANC (RR 1.0 95% CI 1.00, 1.01) and hospital delivery rates for complicated pregnancies (RR 1.03 95% CI 0.89, 1.20) did not differ between intervention and control clusters nor did the composite outcome (RR 1.09 95% CI 0.97, 1.23) or its individual components. CONCLUSIONS: Despite availability of ultrasound at ANC in the intervention clusters, neither ANC nor hospital delivery for complicated pregnancies increased. The composite outcome and the individual components were not reduced. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Antenatal care ultrasound did not improve a composite outcome that included maternal, fetal, and neonatal mortality.

OSIRIS-REx Contamination Control Strategy and Implementation.

OSIRIS-REx will return pristine samples of carbonaceous asteroid Bennu. This article describes how pristine was defined based on expectations of Bennu and on a realistic understanding of what is achievable with a constrained schedule and budget, and how that definition flowed to requirements and implementation. To return a pristine sample, the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft sampling hardware was maintained at level 100 A/2 and <180 ng/cm2 of amino acids and hydrazine on the sampler head through precision cleaning, control of materials, and vigilance. Contamination is further characterized via witness material exposed to the spacecraft assembly and testing environment as well as in space. This characterization provided knowledge of the expected background and will be used in conjunction with archived spacecraft components for comparison with the samples when they are delivered to Earth for analysis. Most of all, the cleanliness of the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft was achieved through communication among scientists, engineers, managers, and technicians.

A prospective cause of death classification system for maternal deaths in low and middle-income countries: results from the Global Network Maternal Newborn Health Registry.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the causes of maternal death in a population-based cohort in six low- and middle-income countries using a standardised, hierarchical, algorithmic cause of death (COD) methodology. DESIGN: A population-based, prospective observational study. SETTING: Seven sites in six low- to middle-income countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guatemala, India (two sites), Kenya, Pakistan and Zambia. POPULATION: All deaths among pregnant women resident in the study sites from 2014 to December 2016. METHODS: For women who died, we used a standardised questionnaire to collect clinical data regarding maternal conditions present during pregnancy and delivery. These data were analysed using a computer-based algorithm to assign cause of maternal death based on the International Classification of Disease-Maternal Mortality system (trauma, termination of pregnancy-related, eclampsia, haemorrhage, pregnancy-related infection and medical conditions). We also compared the COD results to healthcare-provider-assigned maternal COD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Assigned causes of maternal mortality. RESULTS: Among 158 205 women, there were 221 maternal deaths. The most common algorithm-assigned maternal COD were obstetric haemorrhage (38.6%), pregnancy-related infection (26.4%) and pre-eclampsia/eclampsia (18.2%). Agreement between algorithm-assigned COD and COD assigned by healthcare providers ranged from 75% for haemorrhage to 25% for medical causes coincident to pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: The major maternal COD in the Global Network sites were haemorrhage, pregnancy-related infection and pre-eclampsia/eclampsia. This system could allow public health programmes in low- and middle-income countries to generate transparent and comparable data for maternal COD across time or regions. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: An algorithmic system for determining maternal cause of death in low-resource settings is described.

Global Network for Women's and Children's Health Research: probable causes of stillbirth in low- and middle-income countries using a prospectively defined classification system.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to classify causes of stillbirth for six low-middle-income countries using a prospectively defined algorithm. DESIGN: Prospective, observational study. SETTING: Communities in India, Pakistan, Guatemala, Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia and Kenya. POPULATION: Pregnant women residing in defined study regions. METHODS: Basic data regarding conditions present during pregnancy and delivery were collected. Using these data, a computer-based hierarchal algorithm assigned cause of stillbirth. Causes included birth trauma, congenital anomaly, infection, asphyxia, and preterm birth, based on existing cause of death classifications and included contributing maternal conditions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary cause of stillbirth. RESULTS: Of 109 911 women who were enrolled and delivered (99% of those screened in pregnancy), 2847 had a stillbirth (a rate of 27.2 per 1000 births). Asphyxia was the cause of 46.6% of the stillbirths, followed by infection (20.8%), congenital anomalies (8.4%) and prematurity (6.6%). Among those caused by asphyxia, 38% had prolonged or obstructed labour, 19% antepartum haemorrhage and 18% pre-eclampsia/eclampsia. About two-thirds (67.4%) of the stillbirths did not have signs of maceration. CONCLUSIONS: Our algorithm determined cause of stillbirth from basic data obtained from lay-health providers. The major cause of stillbirth was fetal asphyxia associated with prolonged or obstructed labour, pre-eclampsia and antepartum haemorrhage. In the African sites, infection also was an important contributor to stillbirth. Using this algorithm, we documented cause of stillbirth and its trends to inform public health programs, using consistency, transparency, and comparability across time or regions with minimal burden on the healthcare system. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Major causes of stillbirth are asphyxia, pre-eclampsia and haemorrhage. Infections are important in Africa.

Outbreak of pyrazinamide-monoresistant tuberculosis identified using genotype cluster and social media analysis.

SETTING: Monoresistance to pyrazinamide (PZA) has infrequently been associated with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. OBJECTIVE: To report an outbreak of PZA-monoresistant M. tuberculosis in Virginia involving two genotype clusters from December 2004 to August 2010. RESULTS: Thirty cases were identified involving a predominantly young, US-born population with histories of substance use and incarceration and a large proportion of children aged <15 years (n= 6, 20%); of these, 23 cases (77%) were culture-confirmed as M. tuberculosis complex. DNA fingerprinting and molecular analysis of the PZA resistance gene, pncA, demonstrated a clonal strain that was not M. bovis. Genotypic data provided the initial link between seemingly unrelated cases, and helped reveal a historic genotype cluster of cases from 2004. Further genotype cluster and contact investigation procedures, including the novel use of the social networking website Facebook.com, revealed additional links between the 2004 and 2009 genotype clusters and described an ongoing, extensive outbreak necessitating an enhanced screening and treatment protocol for contacts. CONCLUSIONS: This outbreak demonstrates how tuberculosis can spread through a young, vulnerable population. The use of genotypic data and the novel incorporation of social media investigations were critical to understanding the settings and context of infectivity.

Determining primary care physician information needs to inform ambulatory visit note display.

BACKGROUND: With the increase in the adoption of electronic health records (EHR) across the US, primary care physicians are experiencing information overload. The purpose of this pilot study was to determine the information needs of primary care physicians (PCPs) as they review clinic visit notes to inform EHR display. METHOD: Data collection was conducted with 15 primary care physicians during semi-structured interviews, including a third party observer to control bias. Physicians reviewed major sections of an artificial but typical acute and chronic care visit note to identify the note sections that were relevant to their information needs. Statistical methods used were McNemar-Mosteller's and Cochran Q. RESULTS: Physicians identified History of Present Illness (HPI), Assessment, and Plan (A&P) as the most important sections of a visit note. In contrast, they largely judged the Review of Systems (ROS) to be superfluous. There was also a statistical difference in physicians' highlighting among all seven major note sections in acute (p = 0.00) and chronic (p = 0.00) care visit notes. CONCLUSION: A&P and HPI sections were most frequently identified as important which suggests that physicians may have to identify a few key sections out of a long, unnecessarily verbose visit note. ROS is viewed by doctors as mostly "not needed," but can have relevant information. The ROS can contain information needed for patient care when other sections of the Visit note, such as the HPI, lack the relevant information. Future studies should include producing a display that provides only relevant information to increase physician efficiency at the point of care. Also, research on moving A&P to the top of visit notes instead of having A&P at the bottom of the page is needed, since those are usually the first sections physicians refer to and reviewing from top to bottom may cause cognitive load.

Cardiovascular effects of cadence and workload.

Increases in cadence may augment SV during submaximal cycling (> 65 % VO2max) via effects of increased muscle pump activity on preload. At lower workloads (45 - 65 % VO2max), SV tends to plateau, suggesting that effects of increases in cadence on pump activity have little influence on SV. We hypothesized that cadence-induced increases in CO at submaximal workloads, where SV tends to plateau, are due to elevations in HR and/or O2 extraction. SV, CO, HR, VO2, and delta a - vO2 were assessed at 80 and 100 rpm during workloads of 50 % (LO) or 65 % (HI) of VO2max in 11 male cyclists. No changes in SV were seen. CO was higher at 100 rpm in 10 of 11 subjects at LO (18.1 +/- 2.7 vs. 17.2 +/- 2.6 L/min). VO2 at both workloads was greater at 100 than 80 rpm as was HR (LO: 129 +/- 11 vs. 121 +/- 10 beats/min; HI: 146 +/- 13 vs. 139 +/- 14 beats/min) (p < 0.05). delta a - vO2 was greater at HI compared to LO at 80 (15.1 +/- 1.6 vs. 13.6 +/- 1.3 ml) and 100 rpm (16.0 +/- 1.7 vs. 15.1 +/- 1.6 ml) (p < 0.05). Results suggest that increases in O2 demand during low submaximal cycling (50 % VO2max) at high cadences are met by HR-induced increases in CO. At higher workloads (65 % VO2max), inability of higher cadences to increase CO and O2 delivery is offset by greater O2 extraction.

Improved tolerability and efficacy in epilepsy patients with extended-release carbamazepine.

The authors conducted a 3-month, prospective, open-label study assessing the effects of switching from immediate-release carbamazepine formulations to an equal total daily dose of carbamazepine extended-release capsules (CBZ-ERC) in adolescents and adults with epilepsy. Using validated, epilepsy-specific measures the authors found that switching to CBZ-ERC significantly improved patients' adverse events and quality-of-life measures. Switching to CBZ-ERC also improved seizure control.

Occurrence of seizure clusters and status epilepticus during inpatient video-EEG monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the occurrence of status epilepticus and seizure clusters, and the duration until first seizure at epilepsy monitoring units in the United States. METHODS: The authors examined the inpatient video-EEG monitoring reports of 514 consecutive patients admitted to five comprehensive epilepsy centers during the year 2000. Time to first seizure, seizure clustering, and seizure duration were ascertained from reports and entered into a database. RESULTS: In 169 admissions with complex partial seizures (CPSs) or secondarily generalized tonic-clonic (2GTC) seizures, there were 5 (3.0%) patients with status epilepticus, 30 (17.8%) with 4-hour seizure clusters, and 82 (48.5%) with 24-hour seizure clusters. There were no statistically significant differences between centers, except that seizure clusters were observed to be less common at the one center with a formal drug withdrawal protocol. The average time to CPS or 2GTC seizure was 2.1 days; the average number of days to nonepileptic event was 1.2 days (p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Although status epilepticus is uncommon at epilepsy monitoring units, clusters of seizures are common. Intensive monitoring with drug withdrawal must be performed in a highly supervised, hospitalized setting. Inpatient video-EEG monitoring is efficient, with recording of the first epileptic or nonepileptic events in 2 days or less.

The effects of single-dose fexofenadine, diphenhydramine, and placebo on cognitive performance in flight personnel.

BACKGROUND: Sedation and functional impairments are side effects associated with the use of first-generation antihistamines that preclude their use in aviation. Selected second-generation antihistamines do not have such side effects and have been proposed for use in aircrew. METHODS: Forty-two healthy naval aviation personnel served as subjects in this double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled crossover study. Subjective drowsiness, cognitive performance, and vigilance were measured under three conditions: 180 mg fexofenadine (F), 50 mg diphenhydramine (D) as a positive control, or placebo (P). RESULTS: Subjects receiving F vs. D tended to have a faster mean hit reaction time (adjusted mean difference +/- SE, -10.5 +/- 6.8 ms, p = 0.127). Subjects performed faster and better with F vs. D on measures of omission errors and commission errors (p < 0.05). Variable symbol digit coding delayed recall accuracy was better for F vs. D (p = 0.023), and approached significance for shifting attention and divided attention tasks (p = 0.062 and p = 0.057, respectively). Subjects reported significantly more drowsiness (p < 0.005) with D than F. CONCLUSIONS: Diphenhydramine administration resulted in significant psychomotor decrements compared with fexofenadine, while the effects of fexofenadine were similar to placebo. These results provide additional support for the safe use of fexofenadine by aviation personnel.

The dynamics of grazed woodlands in southwest Queensland, Australia and their effect on greenhouse gas emissions.

This study outlines the development of an approach to evaluate the sources, sinks, and magnitudes of greenhouse gas emissions from a grazed semiarid rangeland dominated by mulga (Acacia aneura) and how these emissions may be altered by changes in management. This paper describes the modification of an existing pasture production model (GRASP) to include a gas emission component and a dynamic tree growth and population model. An exploratory study was completed to investigate the likely impact of changes in burning practices and stock management on emissions. This study indicates that there is a fundamental conflict between maintaining agricultural productivity and reducing greenhouse gas emissions on a given unit of land. Greater agricultural productivity is allied with the system being an emissions source while production declines and the system becomes a net emissions sink as mulga density increases. Effective management for sheep production results in the system acting as a net source (approximately 60-200 kg CO2 equivalents/ha/year). The magnitude of the source depends on the management strategies used to maintain the productivity of the system and is largely determined by starting density and average density of the mulga over the simulation period. Prior to European settlement, it is believed that the mulga lands were burnt almost annually. Simulations indicate that such a management approach results in the system acting as a small net sink with an average net absorption of greenhouse gases of 14 kg CO2 equivalents/ha/year through minimal growth of mulga stands. In contrast, the suppression of fire and the introduction of grazing results in thickening of mulga stands and the system can act as a significant net sink absorbing an average of 1000 kg CO2 equivalents/ha/year. Although dense mulga will render the land largely useless for grazing, land in this region is relatively inexpensive and could possibly be developed as a cost-effective carbon offset for greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere. These results also provide support for the hypothesis that changes in land management, and particularly, suppression of fire is chiefly responsible for the observed increases in mulga density over the past century.

Global change and the mulga woodlands of southwest Queensland: greenhouse gas emissions, impacts, and adaptation.

The possibility of trading greenhouse gas emission permits as a result of the Kyoto Protocol has spurred interest in developing land-based sinks for greenhouse gases. Extensive grazing lands that have the potential to develop substantial woody biomass are one obvious candidate for such activities. However, such activities need to consider the possible impacts on existing grazing and the possible impacts of continuing CO2 buildup in the atmosphere and resultant climate change. We used simulation models to investigate these issues in the mulga (Acacia aneura) woodlands of southwest Queensland. The simulation results suggest that this system can be managed to act as either a net source or a net sink of greenhouse gases under current climate and CO2 and under a range of global change scenarios. The key component in determining source or sink status is the management of the woody mulga. The most effective means of permanently increasing carbon stores and hence reducing net emissions is to exclude both burning and grazing. There are combinations of management regimes, such as excluding fire with light grazing, which, on average, allows productive grazing but transient carbon storage. The effects of increased CO2 on ecosystem carbon stores were unexpected. Carbon stores increased (7-17%) with doubling of CO2 only in those simulations where burning did not occur, but decreased when burnt. This occurred because the substantial increases in grass growth with doubling of CO2 (34-56%) enabled more fires, killing off the establishing cohorts needed to ensure continued carbon accumulation. On average, the doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration increased grass growth by 44%, which is identical with mean literature values, suggesting that this result may be applicable in other ecosystems where fire has a similar function. A sensitivity analysis of the CO2 response of mulga showed only minor impacts. We discuss additional uncertainties and shortcomings.