Climate-Smart Siting for renewable energy expansion.

A massive expansion of renewable energy (RE) is underway to meet the world's climate goals. Although RE serves to reduce threats from climate change, it can also pose threats to species whose current and future ranges intersect with RE installations. Here, we propose a "Climate-Smart Siting" framework for addressing potential conflicts between RE expansion and biodiversity conservation. The framework engenders authentic consultation with affected and disadvantaged communities throughout and uses overlay and optimization routines to identify focal areas now and in the future where RE development poses promise and peril as species' ranges shift in response to climate change. We use this framework to demonstrate methods, identify decision outcomes, and discuss market-based levers for aligning RE expansion with the United Nations Global Biodiversity Framework now and as climate change progresses. In the face of the climate crisis, a Climate-Smart Siting strategy could help create solutions without causing further harm to biodiversity and human communities..

Managing climate-change refugia to prevent extinctions.

Earth is facing simultaneous biodiversity and climate crises. Climate-change refugia - areas that are relatively buffered from climate change - can help address both of these problems by maintaining biodiversity components when the surrounding landscape no longer can. However, this capacity to support biodiversity is often vulnerable to severe climate change and other stressors. Thus, management actions need to consider the complex and multidimensional nature of refugia. We outline an approach to understand refugia-promoting processes and to evaluate refugial capacity to determine suitable management actions. Our framework applies climate-change refugia as tools to facilitate resistance in modern conservation planning. Such refugia-focused management can reduce extinctions and maintain biodiversity under climate change.

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage.

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem's carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Climate change and the global redistribution of biodiversity: substantial variation in empirical support for expected range shifts.

BACKGROUND: Among the most widely predicted climate change-related impacts to biodiversity are geographic range shifts, whereby species shift their spatial distribution to track their climate niches. A series of commonly articulated hypotheses have emerged in the scientific literature suggesting species are expected to shift their distributions to higher latitudes, greater elevations, and deeper depths in response to rising temperatures associated with climate change. Yet, many species are not demonstrating range shifts consistent with these expectations. Here, we evaluate the impact of anthropogenic climate change (specifically, changes in temperature and precipitation) on species' ranges, and assess whether expected range shifts are supported by the body of empirical evidence. METHODS: We conducted a Systematic Review, searching online databases and search engines in English. Studies were screened in a two-stage process (title/abstract review, followed by full-text review) to evaluate whether they met a list of eligibility criteria. Data coding, extraction, and study validity assessment was completed by a team of trained reviewers and each entry was validated by at least one secondary reviewer. We used logistic regression models to assess whether the direction of shift supported common range-shift expectations (i.e., shifts to higher latitudes and elevations, and deeper depths). We also estimated the magnitude of shifts for the subset of available range-shift data expressed in distance per time (i.e., km/decade). We accounted for methodological attributes at the study level as potential sources of variation. This allowed us to answer two questions: (1) are most species shifting in the direction we expect (i.e., each observation is assessed as support/fail to support our expectation); and (2) what is the average speed of range shifts? REVIEW FINDINGS: We found that less than half of all range-shift observations (46.60%) documented shifts towards higher latitudes, higher elevations, and greater marine depths, demonstrating significant variation in the empirical evidence for general range shift expectations. For the subset of studies looking at range shift rates, we found that species demonstrated significant average shifts towards higher latitudes (average = 11.8 km/dec) and higher elevations (average = 9 m/dec), although we failed to find significant evidence for shifts to greater marine depths. We found that methodological factors in individual range-shift studies had a significant impact on the reported direction and magnitude of shifts. Finally, we identified important variation across dimensions of range shifts (e.g., greater support for latitude and elevation shifts than depth), parameters (e.g., leading edge shifts faster than trailing edge for latitude), and taxonomic groups (e.g., faster latitudinal shifts for insects than plants). CONCLUSIONS: Despite growing evidence that species are shifting their ranges in response to climate change, substantial variation exists in the extent to which definitively empirical observations confirm these expectations. Even though on average, rates of shift show significant movement to higher elevations and latitudes for many taxa, most species are not shifting in expected directions. Variation across dimensions and parameters of range shifts, as well as differences across taxonomic groups and variation driven by methodological factors, should be considered when assessing overall confidence in range-shift hypotheses. In order for managers to effectively plan for species redistribution, we need to better account for and predict which species will shift and by how much. The dataset produced for this analysis can be used for future research to explore additional hypotheses to better understand species range shifts.

Global environmental changes more frequently offset than intensify detrimental effects of biological invasions.

Human-induced abiotic global environmental changes (GECs) and the spread of nonnative invasive species are rapidly altering ecosystems. Understanding the relative and interactive effects of invasion and GECs is critical for informing ecosystem adaptation and management, but this information has not been synthesized. We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate effects of invasions, GECs, and their combined influences on native ecosystems. We found 458 cases from 95 published studies that reported individual and combined effects of invasions and a GEC stressor, which was most commonly warming, drought, or nitrogen addition. We calculated standardized effect sizes (Hedges' d) for individual and combined treatments and classified interactions as additive (sum of individual treatment effects), antagonistic (smaller than expected), or synergistic (outside the expected range). The ecological effects of GECs varied, with detrimental effects more likely with drought than the other GECs. Invasions were more strongly detrimental, on average, than GECs. Invasion and GEC interactions were mostly antagonistic, but synergistic interactions occurred in >25% of cases and mostly led to more detrimental outcomes for ecosystems. While interactive effects were most often smaller than expected from individual invasion and GEC effects, synergisms were not rare and occurred across ecological responses from the individual to the ecosystem scale. Overall, interactions between invasions and GECs were typically no worse than the effects of invasions alone, highlighting the importance of managing invasions locally as a crucial step toward reducing harm from multiple global changes.

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States.

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Interactive range-limit theory (iRLT): An extension for predicting range shifts.

A central theme of range-limit theory (RLT) posits that abiotic factors form high-latitude/altitude limits, whereas biotic interactions create lower limits. This hypothesis, often credited to Charles Darwin, is a pattern widely assumed to occur in nature. However, abiotic factors can impose constraints on both limits and there is scant evidence to support the latter prediction. Deviations from these predictions may arise from correlations between abiotic factors and biotic interactions, as a lack of data to evaluate the hypothesis, or be an artifact of scale. Combining two tenets of ecology-niche theory and predator-prey theory-provides an opportunity to understand how biotic interactions influence range limits and how this varies by trophic level. We propose an expansion of RLT, interactive RLT (iRLT), to understand the causes of range limits and predict range shifts. Incorporating the main predictions of Darwin's hypothesis, iRLT hypothesizes that abiotic and biotic factors can interact to impact both limits of a species' range. We summarize current thinking on range limits and perform an integrative review to evaluate support for iRLT and trophic differences along range margins, surveying the mammal community along the boreal-temperate and forest-tundra ecotones of North America. Our review suggests that range-limit dynamics are more nuanced and interactive than classically predicted by RLT. Many (57 of 70) studies indicate that biotic factors can ameliorate harsh climatic conditions along high-latitude/altitude limits. Conversely, abiotic factors can also mediate biotic interactions along low-latitude/altitude limits (44 of 68 studies). Both scenarios facilitate range expansion, contraction or stability depending on the strength and the direction of the abiotic or biotic factors. As predicted, biotic interactions most often occurred along lower limits, yet there were trophic differences. Carnivores were only limited by competitive interactions (n = 25), whereas herbivores were more influenced by predation and parasitism (77%; 55 of 71 studies). We highlight how these differences may create divergent range patterns along lower limits. We conclude by (a) summarizing iRLT; (b) contrasting how our model system and others fit this hypothesis and (c) suggesting future directions for evaluating iRLT.

Climate-change refugia: biodiversity in the slow lane.

Climate-change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate-change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long-term, network-based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as "slow lanes" rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.

Novel opsin gene variation in large-bodied, diurnal lemurs.

Some primate populations include both trichromatic and dichromatic (red-green colour blind) individuals due to allelic variation at the X-linked opsin locus. This polymorphic trichromacy is well described in day-active New World monkeys. Less is known about colour vision in Malagasy lemurs, but, unlike New World monkeys, only some day-active lemurs are polymorphic, while others are dichromatic. The evolutionary pressures underlying these differences in lemurs are unknown, but aspects of species ecology, including variation in activity pattern, are hypothesized to play a role. Limited data on X-linked opsin variation in lemurs make such hypotheses difficult to evaluate. We provide the first detailed examination of X-linked opsin variation across a lemur clade (Indriidae). We sequenced the X-linked opsin in the most strictly diurnal and largest extant lemur, Indri indri, and nine species of smaller, generally diurnal indriids (Propithecus). Although nocturnal Avahi (sister taxon to Propithecus) lacks a polymorphism, at least eight species of diurnal indriids have two or more X-linked opsin alleles. Four rainforest-living taxa-I. indri and the three largest Propithecus species-have alleles not previously documented in lemurs. Moreover, we identified at least three opsin alleles in Indri with peak spectral sensitivities similar to some New World monkeys.

Correction: Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159909.].

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Relatedness communicated in lemur scent.

Lemurs are the most olfactory-oriented of primates, yet there is still only a basic level of understanding of what their scent marks communicate. We analyzed scent secretions from Milne-Edwards' sifakas (Propithecus edwardsi) collected in their natural habitat of Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar. We sought to test whether the scent mark could signal genetic relatedness in addition to species, sex, season, and individuality. We not only found correlations (r (2) = 0.38, P = 0.017) between the total olfactory fingerprint and genetic relatedness but also between relatedness and specific components of the odor, despite the complex environmental signals from differences in diet and behavior in a natural setting. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of an association between genetic relatedness and chemical communication in a wild primate population. Furthermore, we found a variety of compounds that were specific to each sex and each sampling period. This research shows that scent marks could act as a remote signal to avoid inbreeding, optimize mating opportunities, and potentially aid kin selection.

Anthropogenic refugia ameliorate the severe climate-related decline of a montane mammal along its trailing edge.

We conducted detailed resurveys of a montane mammal, Urocitellus beldingi, to examine the effects of climate change on persistence along the trailing edge of its range. Of 74 California sites where U. beldingi were historically recorded (1902-1966), 42 per cent were extirpated, with no evidence for colonization of previously unoccupied sites. Increases in both precipitation and temperature predicted site extirpations, potentially owing to snowcover loss. Surprisingly, human land-use change buffered climate change impacts, leading to increased persistence and abundance. Excluding human-modified sites, U. beldingi has shown an upslope range retraction of 255 m. Generalized additive models of past distribution were predictive of modern range contractions (AUC = 0.76) and projected extreme reductions (52% and 99%, respectively) of U. beldingi's southwestern range to 2080 climates (Hadley and CCCMA A2). Our study suggests the strong impacts of climate change on montane species at their trailing edge and how anthropogenic refugia may mitigate these effects.

Comparing aye-aye (Daubentonia madagascariensis) presence and distribution between degraded and non-degraded forest within Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar.

The aye-aye is considered the most widely distributed lemur in Madagascar; however, the effect of forest quality on aye-aye abundance is unknown. We compared aye-aye presence across degraded and non-degraded forest at Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar. We used secondary signs (feeding sites, high activity sites) as indirect cues of aye-aye presence and Canarium trees as an indicator of resource availability. All 3 measured variables indicated higher aye-aye abundance within non-degraded forest; however, the differences across forest type were not significant. Both degraded and non-degraded forests showed a positive correlation between feeding sites and high activity sites. We found that Canarium, an important aye-aye food source, was rare and had limited dispersal, particularly across degraded forest. This preliminary study provides baseline data for aye-aye activity and resource utilization across degraded and non-degraded forests.

Museum genomics: low-cost and high-accuracy genetic data from historical specimens.

Natural history collections are unparalleled repositories of geographical and temporal variation in faunal conditions. Molecular studies offer an opportunity to uncover much of this variation; however, genetic studies of historical museum specimens typically rely on extracting highly degraded and chemically modified DNA samples from skins, skulls or other dried samples. Despite this limitation, obtaining short fragments of DNA sequences using traditional PCR amplification of DNA has been the primary method for genetic study of historical specimens. Few laboratories have succeeded in obtaining genome-scale sequences from historical specimens and then only with considerable effort and cost. Here, we describe a low-cost approach using high-throughput next-generation sequencing to obtain reliable genome-scale sequence data from a traditionally preserved mammal skin and skull using a simple extraction protocol. We show that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from the genome sequences obtained independently from the skin and from the skull are highly repeatable compared to a reference genome.

Morphometrics and pattern of growth in wild sifakas (Propithecus edwardsi) at Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar.

We summarize morphometric data collected over a period of 22 years from a natural population of rainforest sifakas (Propithecus edwardsi) at Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar, and we use those data to document patterns of growth and development. Individually identified, known-age sifakas were successfully captured, measured, and released. We found that body segment lengths increased faster during growth than did body mass, with individuals attaining adult lengths earlier than adult mass. Females can begin reproducing before they are fully grown, but this may not be common. With the exception of hand length, we found no significant sex difference in any adult metric including body mass, chest, and limb circumferences, body segment lengths, and canine tooth height; however, body masses of individual females fluctuated more, independently of pregnancy, than did those of males. We found considerable interannual fluctuation in body mass with single individuals differing more within the same season in different years than from season to season in the same year. Such body mass fluctuation may be a consequence of eastern Madagascar's variable and unpredictable environment in which rainfall during any selected month varies from year to year.

Volatile components of lemur scent secretions vary throughout the year.

Olfactory signals can communicate a wide variety of information and are very important in many mammalian species. However, little is known about the olfactory communication of primates. This study used gas chromatography to examine the volatile components of the anogenital gland secretions of wild Milne-Edward's sifaka, Propithecus edwardsi (Primates, Indriidae) (n = 17), captured in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar. We compared scent swabs of animals and examined differences between social group, age class, sex, and season. The only identified differences in the volatiles were between swabs from the different seasons; all other categories were statistically indistinguishable.

Sex differences in scent marking in Propithecus edwardsi of Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar.

In this study we compared the scent-marking rates of females with those of males. Specifically, we examined the ability of season, dominance status, and natal status to explain the frequency of scent marking in female sifakas living wild in Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar, and compared the results with those published for males [Pochron et al., American Journal of Primatology, in press]. We also sought to determine whether vulnerability to infanticide affects marking frequency in adults of either sex, and whether female reproductive status affects female marking behavior. We found that males marked at twice the rate of females, and like males, females in single-female groups marked at the highest rates. Dominant females and non-natal females marked at higher rates than did subordinate females and natal females, a pattern also seen in males. This suggests that scent marks may convey important information about status. Neither females nor males varied their marking frequency with the presence of vulnerable infants. Females did not alter marking frequency with reproductive state, and like males, they marked at higher rates in the period prior to the mating season than they did in the mating season itself. This implies that females may use scent marks more for intrasexual aggression or territoriality than for mate attraction.

Patterns of male scent-marking in Propithecus edwardsi of Ranomafana National Park, Madagascar.

Scent-marking behavior has been well documented in many primate species. Three common functions attributed to scent-marking in males of multi-male/multi-female lemur species include: 1) advertisement of individual identity, 2) territorial defense, and 3) reproductive suppression. We examined the average number of scent-marks per hour exhibited daily by adult male sifakas (Propithecus edwardsi) and found that patterns of scent-marking changed with season, natal status, and dominance status. Males in single-male groups scent-marked at the highest rate, followed by dominant males, males of equal status, and subordinate males. Non-natal males generally scent-marked at higher rates than natal males, and adult males living in a natal group without a parent marked at higher rates than males living with a parent. All males scent-marked at higher rates in the migration season compared to the other seasons. These patterns were consistent with territorial defense and advertisement to females, and the suggestion that these chemical signals impart information concerning status. Since scent-marking behavior tracked seasons and varied with both dominance and natal status, it may serve multiple functions in males.