Pest population dynamics are related to a continental overwintering gradient.

Overwintering success is an important determinant of arthropod populations that must be considered as climate change continues to influence the spatiotemporal population dynamics of agricultural pests. Using a long-term monitoring database and biologically relevant overwintering zones, we modeled the annual and seasonal population dynamics of a common pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), based on three overwintering suitability zones throughout North America using four decades of soil temperatures: the southern range (able to persist through winter), transitional zone (uncertain overwintering survivorship), and northern limits (unable to survive winter). Our model indicates H. zea population dynamics are hierarchically structured with continental-level effects that are partitioned into three geographic zones. Seasonal populations were initially detected in the southern range, where they experienced multiple large population peaks. All three zones experienced a final peak between late July (southern range) and mid-August to mid-September (transitional zone and northern limits). The southern range expanded by 3% since 1981 and is projected to increase by twofold by 2099 but the areas of other zones are expected to decrease in the future. These changes suggest larger populations may persist at higher latitudes in the future due to reduced low-temperature lethal events during winter. Because H. zea is a highly migratory pest, predicting when populations accumulate in one region can inform synchronous or lagged population development in other regions. We show the value of combining long-term datasets, remotely sensed data, and laboratory findings to inform forecasting of insect pests.

Modeling the potential range expansion of larger grain borer, Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae).

Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), is a beetle that is a member of a family that is primarily comprised of wood-boring insects, including forest insect pests. It is native to Mexico and Central America, where it has adapted to become a pest of stored maize. It was accidentally introduced into Africa in late 1970s, where it quickly spread throughout the sub-Saharan region, perhaps aided by adaptation to alternate hosts and the ability to persist in non-agricultural habitats. We used the correlative modelling algorithm, MaxEnt, to identify global areas of potential high suitability based on the climate locations with documented populations. Predictions using a model trained in Mexico + Central America showed potential high climatic suitability extending north into the southern United States and southward into South America, including parts of Argentina, but predictions using a model built from African occurrences did not include those areas as highly suitable. However, there was general agreement in both models that large areas of the tropics in the Western Hemisphere and in Asia have climatic conditions that could support P. truncatus if it were to become established. The models also showed consistency in capturing potential suitability at sites not used to build a given model. Results can be used as an initial guide to establish surveillance programs to monitor for this insect in high risk areas where it is not currently found, and to proactively mitigate the biosecurity risk from P. truncatus.

Sublethal effects of subzero temperatures on the light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana: fitness costs in response to partial freezing.

Population responses to environmental extremes often dictate the bounds to species' distributions. However, population dynamics at, or near, those range limits may also be affected by sublethal effects. We exposed late instars and pupae of an invasive leafroller, Epiphyas postvittana (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), to cold temperatures and measured the effects of exposure on subsequent survivorship, development, and reproduction. Cold temperature was applied as acute exposure to -10 °C (a low, but not immediately lethal temperature for this species) or the onset of freezing (the peak of the supercooling point exotherm). Survival was defined as the ability to successfully eclose as an adult. We measured immature development times, pupal mass, and adult longevity as proxies of fitness in survivors. Additionally, surviving insects were mated with individuals that had not been exposed to cold to measure fertility. There was no difference between the proportion of larvae or pupae that survived acute exposure to -10 °C and those exposed to the control temperature. Approximately 17% of larvae and 8% of pupae survived brief periods with internal ice formation and continued development to become reproductively viable adults. Importantly, surviving the onset of freezing came with significant fitness costs but not to exposure to -10 °C; most insects that survived partial freezing had lower fertility and shorter adult lifespans than either the -10 °C or control group. These results are discussed within the context of forecasting invasive insect distributions.

Host-mediated shift in the cold tolerance of an invasive insect.

While many insects cannot survive the formation of ice within their bodies, a few species can. On the evolutionary continuum from freeze-intolerant (i.e., freeze-avoidant) to freeze-tolerant insects, intermediates likely exist that can withstand some ice formation, but not enough to be considered fully freeze tolerant. Theory suggests that freeze tolerance should be favored over freeze avoidance among individuals that have low relative fitness before exposure to cold. For phytophagous insects, numerous studies have shown that host (or nutrition) can affect fitness and cold-tolerance strategy, respectively, but no research has investigated whether changes in fitness caused by different hosts of polyphagous species could lead to systematic changes in cold-tolerance strategy. We tested this relationship with the invasive, polyphagous moth, Epiphyas postvittana (Walker). Host affected components of fitness, such as larval survivorship rates, pupal mass, and immature developmental times. Host species also caused a dramatic change in survival of late-instar larvae after the onset of freezing-from less than 8% to nearly 80%. The degree of survival after the onset of freezing was inversely correlated with components of fitness in the absence of cold exposure. Our research is the first empirical evidence of an evolutionary mechanism that may drive changes in cold-tolerance strategies. Additionally, characterizing the effects of host plants on insect cold tolerance will enhance forecasts of invasive species dynamics, especially under climate change.

Release of genetically engineered insects: a framework to identify potential ecological effects.

Genetically engineered (GE) insects have the potential to radically change pest management worldwide. With recent approvals of GE insect releases, there is a need for a synthesized framework to evaluate their potential ecological and evolutionary effects. The effects may occur in two phases: a transitory phase when the focal population changes in density, and a steady state phase when it reaches a new, constant density. We review potential effects of a rapid change in insect density related to population outbreaks, biological control, invasive species, and other GE organisms to identify a comprehensive list of potential ecological and evolutionary effects of GE insect releases. We apply this framework to the Anopheles gambiae mosquito - a malaria vector being engineered to suppress the wild mosquito population - to identify effects that may occur during the transitory and steady state phases after release. Our methodology reveals many potential effects in each phase, perhaps most notably those dealing with immunity in the transitory phase, and with pathogen and vector evolution in the steady state phase. Importantly, this framework identifies knowledge gaps in mosquito ecology. Identifying effects in the transitory and steady state phases allows more rigorous identification of the potential ecological effects of GE insect release.

Novel Vip3A Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize approaches high-dose efficacy against Helicoverpa zea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) under field conditions: Implications for resistance management.

Sweet corn, Zea mays L., transformed to express a novel vegetative insecticidal protein, Vip3A (event MIR162, Syngenta Seeds, Inc..), produced by the bacterium, Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), was evaluated over four field seasons in Maryland and two field seasons in Minnesota for efficacy against the corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie). Hybrids expressing the Vip3A protein and pyramided in hybrids also expressing the Cry1Ab Bt protein (event Bt11, ATTRIBUTE(®), Syngenta Seeds, Inc.) were compared to hybrids expressing only Cry1Ab or to genetically similar non-Bt hybrids each year. In addition to H. zea efficacy, results for Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner) and Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) are presented. Over all years and locations, the non-Bt hybrids, without insecticide protection, averaged between 43 and 100% ears infested with a range of 0.24 to 1.74 H. zea larvae per ear. By comparison, in the pyramided Vip3A x Cry1Ab hybrids, no larvae were found and only minimal kernel damage (likely due to other insect pests) was recorded. Hybrids expressing only Cry1Ab incurred a moderate level of H. zea feeding damage, with surviving larvae mostly limited to the first or second instar as a result of previously documented growth inhibition from Cry1Ab. These results suggest that the Vip3A protein, pyramided with Cry1Ab, appears to provide the first "high-dose" under field conditions and will be valuable for ongoing resistance management.