Effects of climate and environmental variance on the performance of a novel peatland-based integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA) system: Implications and opportunities for advancing research and disruptive innovation post COVID-19 era.

Advancing wet peatland 'paludiculture' innovation present enormous potential to sustain carbon-cycles, reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) gas emissions and to transition communities to low-carbon economies; however, there is limited scientific-evidence to support and enable direct commercial viability of eco-friendly products and services. This timely study reports on a novel, paludiculture-based, integrated-multi-trophic-aquaculture (IMTA) system for sustainable food production in the Irish midlands. This freshwater IMTA process relies on a naturally occurring ecosystem of microalgae, bacteria and duckweed in ponds for managing waste and water quality that is powered by wind turbines; however, as it is recirculating, it does not rely upon end-of-pipe solutions and does not discharge effluent to receiving waters. This constitutes the first report on the effects of extreme weather events on the performance of this IMTA system that produces European perch (Perca fluviatilis), rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiis) during Spring 2020. Sampling coincided with lockdown periods of worker mobility restriction due to COVID-19 pandemic. Observations revealed that the frequency and intensity of storms generated high levels of rainfall that disrupted the algal and bacterial ecosystem in the IMTA leading to the emergence and predominance of toxic cyanobacteria that caused fish mortality. There is a pressing need for international agreement on standardized set of environmental indicators to advance paludiculture innovation that addresses climate-change and sustainability. This study describes important technical parameters for advancing freshwater aquaculture (IMTA), which can be future refined using real-time monitoring-tools at farm level to inform management decision-making based on evaluating environmental indicators and weather data. The relevance of these findings to informing global sustaining and disruptive research and innovation in paludiculture is presented, along with alignment with UN Sustainable Development goals. This study also addresses global challenges and opportunities highlighting a commensurate need for international agreement on resilient indicators encompassing linked ecological, societal, cultural, economic and cultural domains.

UK COVID-19 lockdown: 100 days of air pollution reduction?

On the 23 March 2020, a country-wide COVID-19 lockdown was imposed on the UK. The following 100 days saw anthropogenic movements quickly halt, before slowly easing back to a "new" normality. In this short communication, we use data from official UK air-quality sensors (DEFRA AURN) and the UK Met Office stations to show how lockdown measures affected air quality in the UK. We compare the 100 days post-lockdown (23 March to 30 June 2020) with the same period from the previous 7 years. We find, as shown in numerous studies of other countries, the nitrogen oxides levels across the country dropped substantially (∼ 50%). However, we also find the ozone levels increased (∼ 10%), and the levels of sulphur dioxide more than doubled across the country. These changes, driven by a complex balance in the air chemistry near the surface, may reflect the influence of low humidity as suggested by Met Office data, and potentially, the reduction of nitrogen oxides and their interactions with multiple pollutants.

Weather-based forecasting of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in Canada.

Early warning systems to predict infectious disease outbreaks have been identified as a key adaptive response to climate change. Warming, climate variability and extreme weather events associated with climate change are expected to drive an increase in frequency and intensity of mosquito-borne disease (MBD) outbreaks globally. In Canada, this will mean an increased risk of endemic and emerging MBD outbreaks such as West Nile virus and other MBDs. The availability of timely information on the risk of impending MBD outbreaks has important public health implications, by allowing implementation of mosquito control measures and targeted communications regarding the need for increased personal protective measures-before an outbreak occurs. In Canada, both mechanistic and statistical weather-based models have been developed to predict West Nile virus outbreaks. These include models for different species of mosquitoes that transmit West Nile virus in different geographical areas of Canada. Although initial results have been promising, further validation and assessment of forecasting skill are needed before wide scale implementation. Weather-based forecasting for other emerging MBDs in Canada, such as Eastern equine encephalitis, may also be feasible.

The UK's suitability for Aedes albopictus in current and future climates.

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus is able to transmit various pathogens to humans and animals and it has already caused minor outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in southern Europe. Alarmingly, it is spreading northwards and its eggs have been found in the UK in 2016 and 2017. Climate-driven models can help to analyse whether this originally subtropical species could become established in northern Europe. But so far, these models have not considered the impact of the diurnal temperature range (DTR) experienced by mosquitoes in the field. Here, we describe a dynamical model for the life cycle of Ae. albopictus, taking into account the DTR, rainfall, photoperiod and human population density. We develop a new metric for habitat suitability and drive our model with different climate data sets to analyse the UK's suitability for this species. For now, most of the UK seems to be rather unsuitable, except for some densely populated and high importation risk areas in southeast England. But this picture changes in the next 50 years: future scenarios suggest that Ae. albopictus could become established over almost all of England and Wales, indicating the need for continued mosquito surveillance.

The effect of temperature, farm density and foot-and-mouth disease restrictions on the 2007 UK bluetongue outbreak.

In 2006, bluetongue (BT), a disease of ruminants, was introduced into northern Europe for the first time and more than two thousand farms across five countries were affected. In 2007, BT affected more than 35,000 farms in France and Germany alone. By contrast, the UK outbreak beginning in 2007 was relatively small, with only 135 farms in southeast England affected. We use a model to investigate the effects of three factors on the scale of BT outbreaks in the UK: (1) place of introduction; (2) temperature; and (3) animal movement restrictions. Our results suggest that the UK outbreak could have been much larger had the infection been introduced into the west of England either directly or as a result of the movement of infected animals from southeast England before the first case was detected. The fact that air temperatures in the UK in 2007 were marginally lower than average probably contributed to the UK outbreak being relatively small. Finally, our results indicate that BT movement restrictions are effective at controlling the spread of infection. However, foot-and-mouth disease restrictions in place before the detection and control of BT in 2007 almost certainly helped to limit BT spread prior to its detection.

Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.

Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles.

The control of epidemic malaria is a priority for the international health community and specific targets for the early detection and effective control of epidemics have been agreed. Interannual climate variability is an important determinant of epidemics in parts of Africa where climate drives both mosquito vector dynamics and parasite development rates. Hence, skilful seasonal climate forecasts may provide early warning of changes of risk in epidemic-prone regions. Here we discuss the development of a system to forecast probabilities of anomalously high and low malaria incidence with dynamically based, seasonal-timescale, multi-model ensemble predictions of climate, using leading global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models developed in Europe. This forecast system is successfully applied to the prediction of malaria risk in Botswana, where links between malaria and climate variability are well established, adding up to four months lead time over malaria warnings issued with observed precipitation and having a comparably high level of probabilistic prediction skill. In years in which the forecast probability distribution is different from that of climatology, malaria decision-makers can use this information for improved resource allocation.

Meningococcal meningitis and carriage in western Zaire: a hypoendemic zone related to climate?

An analysis of bacteria recovered from cerebrospinal fluid over a 16-year period at a rural hospital in western Zaire showed that Neisseria meningitidis accounted for only five (2.2%) isolates. A survey of naso-pharyngeal colonisation with N. meningitidis in 378 healthy children was undertaken to distinguish whether this low frequency was due to lack of carriage or, by inference, lack of the co-factors necessary to permit invasive disease. N. meningitidis was recovered from only three (0.78%) of the children. All isolates were non-typable strains of low pathogenicity. A review of studies examining the aetiology of bacterial meningitis and the geographical location of epidemics of meningococcal meningitis in and around Zaire reveals a 'hypoendemic zone', the limits of which correlate well with the area in which mean absolute humidity remains above 10 g m-3 of air throughout the year. Continuous high absolute humidity appears to reduce the transmission of meningococci.