Closely linked cis-acting modifier of expansion of the CGG repeat in high risk FMR1 haplotypes.

In its expanded form, the fragile X triplet repeat at Xq27.3 gives rise to the most common form of inherited mental retardation, fragile X syndrome. This high population frequency persists despite strong selective pressure against mutation-bearing chromosomes. Males carrying the full mutation rarely reproduce and females heterozygous for the premutation allele are at risk of premature ovarian failure. Our diagnostic facility and previous research have provided a large databank of X chromosomes that have been tested for the FRAXA allele. Using this resource, we have conducted a detailed genetic association study of the FRAXA region to determine any cis-acting factors that predispose to expansion of the CGG triplet repeat. We have genotyped SNP variants across a 650-kb tract centered on FRAXA in a sample of 877 expanded and normal X chromosomes. These chromosomes were selected to be representative of the haplotypic diversity encountered in our population. We found expansion status to be strongly associated with a approximately 50-kb region proximal to the fragile site. Subsequent detailed analyses of this region revealed no specific genetic determinants for the whole population. However, stratification of chromosomes by risk subgroups enabled us to identify a common SNP variant which cosegregates with the subset of D group haplotypes at highest risk of expansion (chi(1)(2)=17.84, p=0.00002). We have verified that this SNP acts as a marker of repeat expansion in three independent samples.

Refined association mapping for a quantitative trait: weight in the H19-IGF2-INS-TH region.

Previous analyses have provided evidence for one or more loci affecting body weight in the H19-IGF2-INS-TH region on chromosome 11p15. To identify the location of a possible causal locus or loci we applied association analysis by composite likelihood to a large cohort under the Malecot model for body weight. A random sample of 2731 men in the UK were typed for eleven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in IGF2, two SNPs in H19, one SNP in INS and one microsatellite marker in the TH genes. Using F tests appropriate to small marker sets, the superiority of regression over correlation was confirmed. All the evidence for association came from IGF2, with P= 0.007 for height-adjusted weight and P= 0.019 for weight additionally adjusted for smoking and alcohol drinking. Although the estimated point location for the suspected causal variant was close to IGF2 ApaI, the 95% confidence and support intervals covered most of IGF2 but none of the other loci. Identification of the causal SNP or SNPs within IGF2 will require typing of more variants in this region.

An investigation of FRAXA intermediate allele phenotype in a longitudinal sample.

The FRAXA trinucleotide repeat at Xq27.3 gives rise to fragile X syndrome when fully expanded, and both premature ovarian failure (POF) and fragile X tremor and ataxia syndrome (FXTAS) when in the premutation range. Reports of phenotypic effects extending into the intermediate repeat range are inconsistent but some studies suggest that these smaller expansions predispose to special educational needs (SEN). This study utilises the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort to investigate cognitive and behavioural variables that might be associated with FRAXA intermediate alleles. The current study failed to find any strong evidence of association of FRAXA intermediate alleles with SEN, behavioural problems or cognitive difficulties. However, our findings illustrate some of the difficulties encountered in identifying individuals with SEN. The power to identify specific components of cognitive and behavioural difficulties was reduced due to elective drop-out, which is characteristic of longitudinal studies. Our findings demonstrate the non-random loss of participants from this cohort and highlight problems that may arise when such data are used in genetic association studies.

A map of the human genome in linkage disequilibrium units.

Two genetic maps with additive distances contribute information about recombination patterns, recombinogenic sequences, and discovery of genes affecting a particular phenotype. Recombination is measured in morgans (w) over a single generation in a linkage map but may cover thousands of generations in a linkage disequilibrium (LD) map measured in LD units (LDU). We used a subset of single nucleotide polymorphisms from the HapMap Project to create a genome-wide map in LDU. Recombination accounts for 96.8% of the LDU variance in chromosome arms and 92.4% in their deciles. However, deeper analysis shows that LDU/w, an estimate of the effective bottleneck time (t), is significantly variable among chromosome arms because (i) the linkage map is approximated from the Haldane function, then adjusted toward the Kosambi function that is more accurate but still exaggerates w for all chromosomes, especially shorter ones; (ii) the non-pseudoautosomal region of the X chromosome is subject to hemizygous selection; and (iii) at resolution less than approximately 40,000 markers per w, there are indeterminacies (holes) in the LD map reflecting intervals of very high recombination. Selection and stochastic variation in small regions must have effects, which remain to be investigated by comparisons among populations. These considerations suggest an optimal strategy to eliminate holes quickly, greatly enhance the resolution of sex-specific linkage maps, and maximize the gain in association mapping by using LD maps.

The optimal measure of linkage disequilibrium reduces error in association mapping of affection status.

We have developed a simple yet powerful approach for disease gene association mapping by linkage disequilibrium (LD). This method is unique because it applies a model with evolutionary theory that incorporates a parameter for the location of the causal polymorphism. The method exploits LD maps, which assign a location in LD units (LDU) for each marker. This approach is based on single marker tests within a composite likelihood framework, which avoids the heavy Bonferroni correction through multiple testing. As a proof of principle, we tested an 890 kb region flanking the CYP2D6 gene associated with poor drug-metabolizing activity in order to refine the localization of a causal mutation. Previous LD mapping studies using single markers and haplotypes have identified a 390 kb significant region associated with the poor drug-metabolizing phenotype on chromosome 22. None of the 27 Single nucleotide polymorphisms was within the gene. Using a metric LDU map, the commonest functional polymorphism within the gene was located at 14.9 kb from its true location, surrounded within a 95% confidence interval of 172 kb. The kb map had a relative efficiency of 33% compared with the LDU map. Our findings indicate that the support interval and location error are smaller than any published results. Despite the low resolution and the strong LD in the region, our results provide evidence of the substantial utility of LDU maps for disease gene association mapping. These tests are robust to large numbers of markers and are applicable to haplotypes, diplotypes, whole-genome association or candidate region studies.

A metric linkage disequilibrium map of a human chromosome.

We used LDMAP (Maniatis et al. 2002) to analyse SNP data spanning chromosome 22 (Dawson et al. 2002), to obtain a whole-chromosome metric LD map. The LD map, with map distances analogous to the centiMorgan scale of linkage maps, identifies regions of high LD as plateaus ('blocks') and characterises steps which define the relationship between these regions. From this map we estimate that block regions comprise between 32% and 55% of the euchromatic portion of chromosome 22 and that increasing marker density within steps may increase block coverage. Steps are regions of low LD which correspond to areas of variable recombination intensity. The intensity of recombination is related to the height of the step and thus intense recombination hot-spots can be distinguished from more randomly distributed historical events. The LD maps are more closely related to the high-resolution linkage map (Kong et al. 2002) than average measures of rho with recombination accounting for between 34% and 52% of the variance in patterns of LD (r=0.58 - 0.71, p=0.0001). Step regions are closely correlated with a range of sequence motifs including GT/CA repeats. The LD map identifies holes in which greater marker density is required and defines the optimal SNP spacing for positional cloning, which suggests that some multiple of around 50,000 SNPs will be required to efficiently screen Caucasian genomes. Further analyses which investigate selection of informative SNPs and the effect of SNP allele frequency and marker density will refine this estimate.

Mapping quantitative effects of oligogenes by allelic association.

Regression analysis of a quantitative trait as a function of a single diallelic polymorphism has been extended to allelic association by composite likelihood under the Malecot model for multiple markers. We applied the method to 10 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) spanning 27 kb of the angiotensin-I converting enzyme (ACE) gene in British families, localising a causal SNP between G2530A and 4656(CT)3/2 in the 3' region, at a distance of 21.6+/-0.9 kb from the most proximal SNP T-5491C. Neither they nor the I/D polymorphism is causal. To clarify genetic parameters we applied combined segregation, linkage and association analysis. Stronger evidence for the 3' region was obtained, with significant evidence of a lesser 5' effect as reported in French and Nigerian families. However, rigorous confirmation requires that the causal SNPs be identified. Both Malecot and parametric analysis appear to have high power by comparison with alternative methods for localizing oligogenes and their causal polymorphisms.

Recombination, interference and sequence: comparison of chromosomes 21 and 22.

The euchromatic regions of chromosomes 21 and 22 are almost completely sequenced and have similar lengths (33.7-34.6 Mb). This similarity effectively controls for the influence of length, making comparisons of recombination and interference interesting. For both chromosomes, there is less male than female recombination, and male recombination is associated with GT/CA repeats. The striking sex difference may result from greater condensation of chromosomes in paternal meiosis, possibly restricting recombination to regions with longer repeat tracts and/or higher repeat densities. Chiasma interference in both sexes for chromosome 22 and in females for chromosome 21 is close to the genome average. Chromosome 21 is significantly different in male meiosis, with near complete interference, suggesting that even when double recombinants occur they are widely spaced. We propose that this difference is related to the different distribution of GT/CA dinucleotides. These repeats are widely distributed on chromosome 22, perhaps offering greater opportunities for double recombinants to occur within smaller regions, whereas they are largely subtelomeric in distribution on chromosome 21.

A linkage tournament: affection status, parametric analysis, multivariate traits, and enhancements to variance components and relative pairs.

Linkage tests to localize oligogenes have been extended during the past year. Using simulated data and multiplex selection we find that several tests on affected sib pairs have comparable power and type I error. Three variants of SIBPAL2 are favoured when substantial numbers of normal sibs are included, but performance relative to the BETA benchmark degrades rapidly as normal sibs are depleted by selective sampling or typing. Neglect of this fact may explain recent failure of retrospective collaboration to confirm asthma candidates in the 5q cytokine region that are supported by other studies. A fully quantitative trait favours variance components under complete ascertainment and two options in SIBPAL2 under multiplex selection, with substantial gain in power from covariance analysis if the covariate is independent of the candidate locus. A dichotomy and liability threshold give virtually identical results in the SOLAR variance components program. Comparison with single-marker parametric analysis suggests that extension to multiple markers would be competitive with nonparametric methods in power, and superior in depth of genetic analysis. The simulated examples illustrate common problems encountered with linkage scans for oligogenes. They show that nonparametric methods provide no panacea for analytical problems posed by different phenotypes and methods of ascertainment.

The first linkage disequilibrium (LD) maps: delineation of hot and cold blocks by diplotype analysis.

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) provides information about positional cloning, linkage, and evolution that cannot be inferred from other evidence, even when a correct sequence and a linkage map based on more than a handful of families become available. We present theory to construct an LD map for which distances are additive and population-specific maps are expected to be approximately proportional. For this purpose, there is only a modest difference in relative efficiency of haplotypes and diplotypes: resolving the latter into 2-locus haplotypes has significant cost or error and increases information by about 50%. LD maps for a cold spot in 19p13.3 and a more typical region in 3q21 are optimized by interval estimates. For a random sample and trustworthy map the value of LD at large distance can be predicted reliably from information over a small distance and does not depend on the evolutionary variance unless the sample size approaches the population size. Values of the association probability that can be distinguished from the value at large distance are determined not by population size but by time since a critical bottleneck. In these examples, omission of markers with significant Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium does not improve the map, and widely discrepant draft sequences have similar estimates of the genetic parameters. The LD cold spot in 19p13.3 gives an unusually high estimate of time, supporting an argument that this relationship is general. As predicted for a region with ancient haplotypes or uniformly high recombination, there is no clear evidence of LD clustering. On the contrary, the 3q21 region is resolved into alternating blocks of stable and decreasing LD, as expected from crossover clustering. Construction of a genomewide LD map requires data not yet available, which may be complemented but not replaced by a catalog of haplotypes.

Combination of linkage evidence in complex inheritance.

The central problem of complex inheritance is to combine evidence from data that typically differ in markers, phenotypes, ascertainment, and other factors, without sacrificing the reliability that lods have given to linkage mapping for major loci. Here we evaluate 5 possible solutions on 200 replicates simulated in Genetic Analysis Workshop 10. Two methods differ from less efficient ones by distinguishing the tails of a normal distribution. Maximum likelihood scores (currently implemented only for the BETA model) and the approach of Self and Liang perform about as well as pooling samples, which is not feasible with heterogeneous data. With moderately heterogeneous data the Self and Liang method appears to be more efficient than maximum likelihood scores. Although improvements are being made in sample design and statistical analysis, the problem of combining linkage evidence from multiple data sets appears to have been solved. Allelic association presents different problems not yet addressed.

A tournament of linkage tests in complex inheritance.

The performance of some weakly parametric linkage tests in common use was compared on 200 replicates of oligogenic inheritance from Genetic Analysis Workshop 10. Each random sample for the quantitative trait was dichotomized at different thresholds and also selected through 2 affected sibs, generating 8 combinations of sample and variable. The variance component program SOLAR performed best with a continuous trait, even in selected samples, when the population mean was used. The sib-pair program SIBPAL2 was best in most other cases when the phenotype product, population mean, and empirical estimates of pair correlations were used. The BETA program that introduced phenotype products was slightly more powerful than maximum likelihood scores under the null hypothesis and approached but did not exceed SIBPAL2 under its optimal conditions. Type I errors generally exceeded expectations from a chi(2) test, but were conservative with respect to bounds on lods. All methods can be improved by use of the population mean, empirical correlations, logistic representation for affection status, and correct lods for samples that favour the null hypothesis. It remains uncertain whether all information can be extracted by weakly parametric methods and whether correction for ascertainment bias demands a strongly parametric model. Performance on a standard set of simulated data is indispensable for recognising optimal methods.

International Genetic Epidemiology Society: commentary on Darkness in El Dorado by Patrick Tierney.

The International Genetic Epidemiology Society (IGES) has examined the charges against James V. Neel and his colleagues contained in the recently published book by Patrick Tierney entitled Darkness in El Dorado: How Scientists and Journalists Devastated the Amazon (W.W. Norton, 2000). The book implicates Neel in causing or promoting an epidemic of measles among the Yanomamö Indians of Venezuela in 1968 leading to "hundreds if not thousands" of deaths by using a "dinosaur" vaccine (Edmonston B) as a deliberate "experiment" to test his "eugenic" theories. Tierney also attempts to link this research, funded by the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), with a broader tapestry of human radiation experiments. To investigate these serious charges, the IGES undertook a thorough examination of most source documents referenced in Tierney's book, Neel's field logs, notes, first-hand reports, contemporary writings, film sound tracks, etc., and conducted interviews with many relevant persons. The IGES finds that these allegations are false. Neel was not a eugenicist and was in fact highly critical of both the scientific basis of eugenics and its coercive social policies. In this regard, Tierney has grossly misrepresented Neel's views on a wide range of social implications of modern civilization for the long-term health of the gene pool. Far from causing an epidemic of measles, Neel did his utmost to protect the Yanomamö from the ravages of the impending epidemic by a vaccination program using a vaccine that was widely used at the time and administered in an appropriate manner. There was nothing experimental about the vaccination program, which in fact severely hindered the primary scientific objectives of the expedition. Although the research was funded in large part by the AEC, there was no element of radiation research and the work had no connection with the ethical abuses that have been reported from AEC-sponsored radiation research, such as studies of heavy isotopes. Neel's seminal contributions to a broad range of topics in human genetics have been extensively chronicled elsewhere. His research on the Yanomamö in particular has provided unique insights into the evolutionary biology of our species, the role of sociocultural practices, such as kinship relationships and selective pressures in shaping the genetic diversity of primitive population isolates, as well as the general picture of health in such populations. The IGES decries the damage done to the reputation of one of its founders and its first President and the misperception this book may have caused about the conduct of research in genetic epidemiology. Ethical issues about scientific research in primitive populations deserve serious and wide discussion, but the IGES condemns the gross misrepresentation of the facts and demonization of the principal characters in this book.

Haplotypic determinants of instability in the FRAX region: Concatenated mutation or founder effect?

The fragile X triplet repeat expansion at Xq27.3 has been shown to be associated with mutation or instability 600 kb distal at the FMR2 repeat locus. Concatenated mutation, whereby a mutation at one locus somehow interacts with mutation, recombination, deletion, or transposition at another locus, is a possible explanation. In this study we examine evidence from a sample of over 7,000 independent haplotypes from the FRAX region. We adopt the use of cladistic groups to more thoroughly define the properties of these haplotypes, and in doing so isolate one group of haplotypes which may be predisposed to the phenomenon of concatenated mutation. Distinguishing concatenated mutation from founder effects is difficult within a single population. We present our evidence for and against concatenated mutation, and in the process describe a previously undefined mutation at FRAXE.

A sequence-based integrated map of chromosome 22.

The near-completion of the sequence for chromosome 22q revolutionizes map integration. We describe a sequence-based integrated map containing 968 loci including 516 known or predicted gene sequences, 317 STSs not included in these sequences, and 135 nonexpressed multinucleotide polymorphisms. The published sequence spans 34.6 Mb, inclusive of gaps estimated to total 1.1 Mb, compared with a top-down estimate of 43 Mb. This discrepancy is discussed, but will not be resolved until more of the genome is analyzed. The radiation hybrid map has 5% error in order and 34% error in location exceeding 1 Mb. The utility of a composite location based on evidence other than sequence is limited to regions not yet sequenced. A genetic map conditional on sequence order was constructed from pairwise lods. Its length of 74.8 cM in males and 80.2 cM in females is slightly less than the previous estimate not constrained by sequence order. Five recombination hot spots are detected, with differences in location between the sexes. Male recombination correlates with repetitive DNA, whereas female recombination does not. It remains to be seen whether this is true for other human chromosomes. An algorithm to improve the fit of cytogenetic bands sequence location reduces the discrepancies in cytogenetic assignment from 61 to 38. This sequence-based integrated map is represented in the genetic location database (LDB2000), which is available at http://cedar.genetics.soton.ac.uk/public_html/LDB2000.html.

The optimal measure of allelic association.

Allelic association between pairs of loci is derived in terms of the association probability rho as a function of recombination theta, effective population size N, linear systematic pressure v, and time t, predicting both rho(rt), the decrease of association from founders and rho(ct), the increase by genetic drift, with rho(t) = rho(rt) + rho(ct). These results conform to the Malecot equation, with time replaced by distance on the genetic map, or on the physical map if recombination in the region is uniform. Earlier evidence suggested that rho is less sensitive to variations in marker allele frequencies than alternative metrics for which there is no probability theory. This robustness is confirmed for six alternatives in eight samples. In none of these 48 tests was the residual variance as small as for rho. Overall, efficiency was less than 80% for all alternatives, and less than 30% for two of them. Efficiency of alternatives did not increase when information was estimated simultaneously. The swept radius within which substantial values of rho are conserved lies between 385 and 893 kb, but deviation of parameters between measures is enormously significant. The large effort now being devoted to allelic association has little value unless the rho metric with the strongest theoretical basis and least sensitivity to marker allele frequencies is used for mapping of marker association and localization of disease loci.

Linkage analysis of the 5q31-33 candidate region for asthma in 240 UK families.

Atopy and asthma are complex genetic diseases resulting from the interactions of a number of genetic and environmental factors. We had previously reported allelic association between the IL9 marker on chromosome 5q31-33 and atopy. In order to further investigate the role of susceptibility genes on 5q31-33 in the development of atopy and asthma we have studied 240 UK families comprising 131 families selected at random, 60 multiplex families with affected sib pairs, and 49 single proband nuclear families. Polymorphic markers on 5q31-33 were genotyped and both single and multipoint linkage analysis was undertaken using the BETA program. We have used both affection status and quantitative scores for atopy and asthma for phenotypic variables, combining data into scores for asthma and atopy. The strongest suggestion of linkage using multipoint analysis was centred around D5S410 with a maximum Lod of 1.946 at location 171.3 cM and a standard error of 3.3 for the asthma quantitative score. There was no evidence of linkage with atopy, the atopy quantitative score or total serum IgE.

Allelic association with SNPs: metrics, populations, and the linkage disequilibrium map.

Comparison of different metrics, using three large samples of haplotypes from different populations, demonstrates that rho is the most efficient measure of association between pairs of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Pairwise data can be modeled, using composite likelihood, to describe the decline in linkage disequilibrium with distance (the Malecot model). The evidence from more isolated populations (Finland, Sardinia) suggests that linkage disequilibrium extends to 427-893 kb but, even in samples representative of large heterogeneous populations, such as CEPH, the extent is 385 kb or greater. This suggests that isolated populations are not essential for linkage disequilibrium mapping of common diseases with SNPs. The in parameter of the Malecot model (recombination and time), evaluated at each SNP, indicates regions of the genome with extensive and less extensive disequilibrium (low and high values of in respectively). When plotted against the physical map, the regions with extensive and less extensive linkage disequilibrium may correspond to recombination cold and hot spots. This is discussed in relation to the Xq25 cytogenetic band and the HFE gene region.

Complex inheritance: the 21st century.

At least for the early years of the twenty-first century we can anticipate some of the advances to be made in mapping, positional cloning, pooling of evidence over samples for linkage and allelic association, and fully parametric methods that combine the latter with segregation analysis. This preoccupation with problems the twentieth century failed to solve is not grounds for pessimism if the new century provides solutions and applies them to problems of biological interest. We may hope that genetic epidemiology will be part of a community that addresses the needs of geneticists for international communication, a stable nomenclature, genome databases, and a consensus on ethical, legal, and social issues transcending regional prejudices.