Development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: The development of a prognostic mortality risk model for hospitalized COVID-19 patients may facilitate patient treatment planning, comparisons of therapeutic strategies, and public health preparations. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the electronic health records of patients hospitalized within a 13-hospital New Jersey USA network between March 1, 2020 and April 22, 2020 with positive polymerase chain reaction results for SARS-CoV-2, with follow-up through May 29, 2020. With death or hospital discharge by day 40 as the primary endpoint, we used univariate followed by stepwise multivariate proportional hazard models to develop a risk score on one-half the data set, validated on the remainder, and converted the risk score into a patient-level predictive probability of 40-day mortality based on the combined dataset. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 3123 hospitalized COVID-19 patients; median age 63 years; 60% were men; 42% had >3 coexisting conditions. 713 (23%) patients died within 40 days of hospitalization for COVID-19. From 22 potential candidate factors 6 were found to be independent predictors of mortality and were included in the risk score model: age, respiratory rate ≥25/minute upon hospital presentation, oxygenation <94% on hospital presentation, and pre-hospital comorbidities of hypertension, coronary artery disease, or chronic renal disease. The risk score was highly prognostic of mortality in a training set and confirmatory set yielding in the combined dataset a hazard ratio of 1.80 (95% CI, 1.72, 1.87) for one unit increases. Using observed mortality within 20 equally sized bins of risk scores, a predictive model for an individual's 40-day risk of mortality was generated as -14.258 + 13.460*RS + 1.585*(RS-2.524)^2-0.403*(RS-2.524)^3. An online calculator of this 40-day COVID-19 mortality risk score is available at www.HackensackMeridianHealth.org/CovidRS. CONCLUSIONS: A risk score using six variables is able to prognosticate mortality within 40-days of hospitalization for COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT04347993.

Reduced-dose fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab (FCR-Lite) plus lenalidomide, followed by lenalidomide consolidation/maintenance, in previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Fludarabine, cyclophosphamide, and rituximab (FCR) remains the standard of care for fit chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients requiring first therapy. However, side effects can be significant, and patients with poor risk features have inferior outcomes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate reduced-dose FCR (FCR-Lite) plus lenalidomide (FCR(2) ) followed by lenalidomide maintenance as a strategy to shorten immunochemotherapy in untreated CLL. Patients received four to six cycles of FCR(2) . Patients who were minimal residual disease (MRD) negative in peripheral blood (PB) and bone marrow (BM) initiated 12 months of lenalidomide maintenance after either four or six cycles (based on MRD status). The primary study endpoint was the complete response (CR) rate after four cycles of FCR(2) . Twenty patients were evaluable. After four cycles of FCR(2) , response rates were: CR, 45.0%; CR with incomplete blood count recovery (CRi), 5.0%; partial response (PR), 45.0%; and stable disease (SD), 5.0%. BM and PB samples from 27.8% and 52.9% of patients, respectively, were MRD negative. After six cycles, response rates were: CR, 58.3%; CRi, 16.7%; and PR, 25.0%. BM and PB samples from 50.0% and 72.7% of patients, respectively, were MRD negative. Overall, 75% of evaluable patients achieved a CR or CRi following FCR(2) . After 17.4 months of median follow-up, one progression and one death occurred. Our findings suggest that FCR(2) combines encouraging clinical activity with acceptable toxicity in previously untreated CLL. Lenalidomide can be safely added to FCR and may reduce chemotherapy exposure without compromising outcomes.