PREDICT validity for prognosis of breast cancer patients with pathogenic BRCA1/2 variants.

We assessed the PREDICT v 2.2 for prognosis of breast cancer patients with pathogenic germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants, using follow-up data from 5453 BRCA1/2 carriers from the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA) and the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). PREDICT for estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer had modest discrimination for BRCA1 carrier patients overall (Gönen & Heller unbiased concordance 0.65 in CIMBA, 0.64 in BCAC), but it distinguished clearly the high-mortality group from lower risk categories. In an analysis of low to high risk categories by PREDICT score percentiles, the observed mortality was consistently lower than the expected mortality, but the confidence intervals always included the calibration slope. Altogether, our results encourage the use of the PREDICT ER-negative model in management of breast cancer patients with germline BRCA1 variants. For the PREDICT ER-positive model, the discrimination was slightly lower in BRCA2 variant carriers (concordance 0.60 in CIMBA, 0.65 in BCAC). Especially, inclusion of the tumor grade distorted the prognostic estimates. The breast cancer mortality of BRCA2 carriers was underestimated at the low end of the PREDICT score distribution, whereas at the high end, the mortality was overestimated. These data suggest that BRCA2 status should also be taken into consideration with tumor characteristics, when estimating the prognosis of ER-positive breast cancer patients.

Evolutionary states and trajectories characterized by distinct pathways stratify patients with ovarian high grade serous carcinoma.

Ovarian high-grade serous carcinoma (HGSC) is typically diagnosed at an advanced stage, with multiple genetically heterogeneous clones existing in the tumors long before therapeutic intervention. Herein we integrate clonal composition and topology using whole-genome sequencing data from 510 samples of 148 patients with HGSC in the prospective, longitudinal, multiregion DECIDER study. Our results reveal three evolutionary states, which have distinct features in genomics, pathways, and morphological phenotypes, and significant association with treatment response. Nested pathway analysis suggests two evolutionary trajectories between the states. Experiments with five tumor organoids and three PI3K inhibitors support targeting tumors with enriched PI3K/AKT pathway with alpelisib. Heterogeneity analysis of samples from multiple anatomical sites shows that site-of-origin samples have 70% more unique clones than metastatic tumors or ascites. In conclusion, these analysis and visualization methods enable integrative tumor evolution analysis to identify patient subtypes using data from longitudinal, multiregion cohorts.

The impact of coding germline variants on contralateral breast cancer risk and survival.

Evidence linking coding germline variants in breast cancer (BC)-susceptibility genes other than BRCA1, BRCA2, and CHEK2 with contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) is scarce. The aim of this study was to assess the association of protein-truncating variants (PTVs) and rare missense variants (MSVs) in nine known (ATM, BARD1, BRCA1, BRCA2, CHEK2, PALB2, RAD51C, RAD51D, and TP53) and 25 suspected BC-susceptibility genes with CBC risk and BCSS. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with Cox regression models. Analyses included 34,401 women of European ancestry diagnosed with BC, including 676 CBCs and 3,449 BC deaths; the median follow-up was 10.9 years. Subtype analyses were based on estrogen receptor (ER) status of the first BC. Combined PTVs and pathogenic/likely pathogenic MSVs in BRCA1, BRCA2, and TP53 and PTVs in CHEK2 and PALB2 were associated with increased CBC risk [HRs (95% CIs): 2.88 (1.70-4.87), 2.31 (1.39-3.85), 8.29 (2.53-27.21), 2.25 (1.55-3.27), and 2.67 (1.33-5.35), respectively]. The strongest evidence of association with BCSS was for PTVs and pathogenic/likely pathogenic MSVs in BRCA2 (ER-positive BC) and TP53 and PTVs in CHEK2 [HRs (95% CIs): 1.53 (1.13-2.07), 2.08 (0.95-4.57), and 1.39 (1.13-1.72), respectively, after adjusting for tumor characteristics and treatment]. HRs were essentially unchanged when censoring for CBC, suggesting that these associations are not completely explained by increased CBC risk, tumor characteristics, or treatment. There was limited evidence of associations of PTVs and/or rare MSVs with CBC risk or BCSS for the 25 suspected BC genes. The CBC findings are relevant to treatment decisions, follow-up, and screening after BC diagnosis.

High miR-30 Expression Associates with Improved Breast Cancer Patient Survival and Treatment Outcome.

Deregulated miRNA expression has been suggested in several stages of breast cancer pathogenesis. We have studied the miR-30 family, in particular miR-30d, in relation to breast cancer patient survival and treatment outcomes. With tumor specimens from 1238 breast cancer patients, we analyzed the association of miR-30d expression with tumor characteristics with the 5-year occurrence of breast cancer-specific death or distant metastasis (BDDM), and with 10-year breast cancer survival (BCS). We conducted a two-stage drug-screen to investigate the impact of miR-30 family members (miR-30a-30e) on sensitivity to doxorubicin and lapatinib in six breast cancer cell lines HCC1937, HCC1954, MDA-MB-361, MCF7, MDA-MB-436 and CAL-120, using drug sensitivity scores (DSS) to compare the miR-30 family mimics to their specific inhibitors. The study was complemented with Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) with the METABRIC data. We found that while high miR-30d expression is typical for aggressive tumors, it predicts better metastasis-free (pBDDM = 0.035, HR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.4-0.9) and breast cancer-specific survival (pBCS = 0.018, HR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.4-0.9), especially in HER2-positive (pBDDM = 0.0009), ER-negative (pBDDM = 0.003), p53-positive (pBDDM = 0.011), and highly proliferating (pBDDM = 0.0004) subgroups, and after adjuvant chemotherapy (pBDDM = 0.035). MiR-30d predicted survival independently of standard prognostic markers (pBDDM = 0.0004). In the drug-screening test, the miR-30 family sensitized the HER2-positive HCC1954 cell line to lapatinib (p < 10-2) and HCC1937, MDA-MB-361, MDA-MB-436 and CAL120 to doxorubicin (p < 10-4) with an opposite impact on MCF7. According to the pathway analysis, the miR-30 family has a suppressive effect on cell motility and metastasis in breast cancer. Our results suggest prognostic and predictive potential for the miR-30 family, which warrants further investigation.

A search for modifying genetic factors in CHEK2:c.1100delC breast cancer patients.

The risk of breast cancer associated with CHEK2:c.1100delC is 2-threefold but higher in carriers with a family history of breast cancer than without, suggesting that other genetic loci in combination with CHEK2:c.1100delC confer an increased risk in a polygenic model. Part of the excess familial risk has been associated with common low-penetrance variants. This study aimed to identify genetic loci that modify CHEK2:c.1100delC-associated breast cancer risk by searching for candidate risk alleles that are overrepresented in CHEK2:c.1100delC carriers with breast cancer compared with controls. We performed whole-exome sequencing in 28 breast cancer cases with germline CHEK2:c.1100delC, 28 familial breast cancer cases and 70 controls. Candidate alleles were selected for validation in larger cohorts. One recessive synonymous variant, rs16897117, was suggested, but no overrepresentation of homozygous CHEK2:c.1100delC carriers was found in the following validation. Furthermore, 11 non-synonymous candidate alleles were suggested for further testing, but no significant difference in allele frequency could be detected in the validation in CHEK2:c.1100delC cases compared with familial breast cancer, sporadic breast cancer and controls. With this method, we found no support for a CHEK2:c.1100delC-specific genetic modifier. Further studies of CHEK2:c.1100delC genetic modifiers are warranted to improve risk assessment in clinical practice.

Association of germline variation with the survival of women with BRCA1/2 pathogenic variants and breast cancer.

Germline genetic variation has been suggested to influence the survival of breast cancer patients independently of tumor pathology. We have studied survival associations of genetic variants in two etiologically unique groups of breast cancer patients, the carriers of germline pathogenic variants in BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes. We found that rs57025206 was significantly associated with the overall survival, predicting higher mortality of BRCA1 carrier patients with estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer, with a hazard ratio 4.37 (95% confidence interval 3.03-6.30, P = 3.1 × 10-9). Multivariable analysis adjusted for tumor characteristics suggested that rs57025206 was an independent survival marker. In addition, our exploratory analyses suggest that the associations between genetic variants and breast cancer patient survival may depend on tumor biological subgroup and clinical patient characteristics.

The Spectrum of FANCM Protein Truncating Variants in European Breast Cancer Cases.

Germline protein truncating variants (PTVs) in the FANCM gene have been associated with a 2-4-fold increased breast cancer risk in case-control studies conducted in different European populations. However, the distribution and the frequency of FANCM PTVs in Europe have never been investigated. In the present study, we collected the data of 114 European female breast cancer cases with FANCM PTVs ascertained in 20 centers from 13 European countries. We identified 27 different FANCM PTVs. The p.Gln1701* PTV is the most common PTV in Northern Europe with a maximum frequency in Finland and a lower relative frequency in Southern Europe. On the contrary, p.Arg1931* seems to be the most common PTV in Southern Europe. We also showed that p.Arg658*, the third most common PTV, is more frequent in Central Europe, and p.Gln498Thrfs*7 is probably a founder variant from Lithuania. Of the 23 rare or unique FANCM PTVs, 15 have not been previously reported. We provide here the initial spectrum of FANCM PTVs in European breast cancer cases.

The FANCM:p.Arg658* truncating variant is associated with risk of triple-negative breast cancer.

Breast cancer is a common disease partially caused by genetic risk factors. Germline pathogenic variants in DNA repair genes BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, ATM, and CHEK2 are associated with breast cancer risk. FANCM, which encodes for a DNA translocase, has been proposed as a breast cancer predisposition gene, with greater effects for the ER-negative and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) subtypes. We tested the three recurrent protein-truncating variants FANCM:p.Arg658*, p.Gln1701*, and p.Arg1931* for association with breast cancer risk in 67,112 cases, 53,766 controls, and 26,662 carriers of pathogenic variants of BRCA1 or BRCA2. These three variants were also studied functionally by measuring survival and chromosome fragility in FANCM -/- patient-derived immortalized fibroblasts treated with diepoxybutane or olaparib. We observed that FANCM:p.Arg658* was associated with increased risk of ER-negative disease and TNBC (OR = 2.44, P = 0.034 and OR = 3.79; P = 0.009, respectively). In a country-restricted analysis, we confirmed the associations detected for FANCM:p.Arg658* and found that also FANCM:p.Arg1931* was associated with ER-negative breast cancer risk (OR = 1.96; P = 0.006). The functional results indicated that all three variants were deleterious affecting cell survival and chromosome stability with FANCM:p.Arg658* causing more severe phenotypes. In conclusion, we confirmed that the two rare FANCM deleterious variants p.Arg658* and p.Arg1931* are risk factors for ER-negative and TNBC subtypes. Overall our data suggest that the effect of truncating variants on breast cancer risk may depend on their position in the gene. Cell sensitivity to olaparib exposure, identifies a possible therapeutic option to treat FANCM-associated tumors.

Recurrent moderate-risk mutations in Finnish breast and ovarian cancer patients.

Mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes predispose to breast and ovarian cancer (BC/OC) with a high lifetime risk, whereas mutations in PALB2, CHEK2, ATM, FANCM, RAD51C and RAD51D genes cause a moderately elevated risk. In the Finnish population, recurrent mutations have been identified in all of these genes, the latest being CHEK2 c.319+2T>A and c.444+1G>A. By genotyping 3,156 cases and 2,089 controls, we estimated the frequencies of CHEK2 c.319+2T>A and c.444+1G>A in Finnish BC patients. CHEK2 c.319+2T>A was detected in 0.7% of the patients, and it was associated with a high risk of BC in the unselected patient group (OR = 5.40 [95% CI 1.58-18.45], p = 0.007) and similarly in the familial patient group. CHEK2 c.444+1G>A was identified in 0.1% of all patients. Additionally, we evaluated the combined prevalence of recurrent moderate-risk gene mutations in 2,487 BC patients, 556 OC patients and 261 BRCA1/2 carriers from 109 families. The overall frequency of the mutations was 13.3% in 1,141 BRCA1/2-negative familial BC patients, 7.5% in 1,727 unselected BC patients and 7.2% in 556 unselected OC patients. At least one moderate-risk gene mutation was found in 12.5% of BRCA1 families and 7.1% of BRCA1 index patients, as well as in 17.0% of BRCA2 families and 11.3% of BRCA2 index patients, and the mutations were associated with an additional risk in the BRCA1/2 index patients (OR = 2.63 [1.15-5.48], p = 0.011). These results support gene panel testing of even multiple members of BC families where several mutations may segregate in different individuals.

E-cadherin breast tumor expression, risk factors and survival: Pooled analysis of 5,933 cases from 12 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium.

E-cadherin (CDH1) is a putative tumor suppressor gene implicated in breast carcinogenesis. Yet, whether risk factors or survival differ by E-cadherin tumor expression is unclear. We evaluated E-cadherin tumor immunohistochemistry expression using tissue microarrays of 5,933 female invasive breast cancers from 12 studies from the Breast Cancer Consortium. H-scores were calculated and case-case odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression. Survival analyses were performed using Cox regression models. All analyses were stratified by estrogen receptor (ER) status and histologic subtype. E-cadherin low cases (N = 1191, 20%) were more frequently of lobular histology, low grade, >2 cm, and HER2-negative. Loss of E-cadherin expression (score < 100) was associated with menopausal hormone use among ER-positive tumors (ever compared to never users, OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.97-1.59), which was stronger when we evaluated complete loss of E-cadherin (i.e. H-score = 0), OR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.06-2.33. Breast cancer specific mortality was unrelated to E-cadherin expression in multivariable models. E-cadherin low expression is associated with lobular histology, tumor characteristics and menopausal hormone use, with no evidence of an association with breast cancer specific survival. These data support loss of E-cadherin expression as an important marker of tumor subtypes.

Publisher Correction: Evidence that breast cancer risk at the 2q35 locus is mediated through IGFBP5 regulation.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/ncomms5999.

Genetic modifiers of CHEK2*1100delC-associated breast cancer risk.

PURPOSE: CHEK2*1100delC is a founder variant in European populations that confers a two- to threefold increased risk of breast cancer (BC). Epidemiologic and family studies have suggested that the risk associated with CHEK2*1100delC is modified by other genetic factors in a multiplicative fashion. We have investigated this empirically using data from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). METHODS: Using genotype data from 39,139 (624 1100delC carriers) BC patients and 40,063 (224) healthy controls from 32 BCAC studies, we analyzed the combined risk effects of CHEK2*1100delC and 77 common variants in terms of a polygenic risk score (PRS) and pairwise interaction. RESULTS: The PRS conferred odds ratios (OR) of 1.59 (95% CI: 1.21-2.09) per standard deviation for BC for CHEK2*1100delC carriers and 1.58 (1.55-1.62) for noncarriers. No evidence of deviation from the multiplicative model was found. The OR for the highest quintile of the PRS was 2.03 (0.86-4.78) for CHEK2*1100delC carriers, placing them in the high risk category according to UK NICE guidelines. The OR for the lowest quintile was 0.52 (0.16-1.74), indicating a lifetime risk close to the population average. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm the multiplicative nature of risk effects conferred by CHEK2*1100delC and the common susceptibility variants. Furthermore, the PRS could identify carriers at a high lifetime risk for clinical actions.Genet Med advance online publication 06 October 2016.

Patient survival and tumor characteristics associated with CHEK2:p.I157T - findings from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium.

BACKGROUND: P.I157T is a CHEK2 missense mutation associated with a modest increase in breast cancer risk. Previously, another CHEK2 mutation, the protein truncating c.1100delC has been associated with poor prognosis of breast cancer patients. Here, we have investigated patient survival and characteristics of breast tumors of germ line p.I157T carriers. METHODS: We included in the analyses 26,801 European female breast cancer patients from 15 studies participating in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. We analyzed the association between p.I157T and the clinico-pathological breast cancer characteristics by comparing the p.I157T carrier tumors to non-carrier and c.1100delC carrier tumors. Similarly, we investigated the p.I157T associated risk of early death, breast cancer-associated death, distant metastasis, locoregional relapse and second breast cancer using Cox proportional hazards models. Additionally, we explored the p.I157T-associated genomic gene expression profile using data from breast tumors of 183 Finnish female breast cancer patients (ten p.I157T carriers) (GEO: GSE24450). Differential gene expression analysis was performed using a moderated t test. Functional enrichment was investigated using the DAVID functional annotation tool and gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA). The tumors were classified into molecular subtypes according to the St Gallen 2013 criteria and the PAM50 gene expression signature. RESULTS: P.I157T was not associated with increased risk of early death, breast cancer-associated death or distant metastasis relapse, and there was a significant difference in prognosis associated with the two CHEK2 mutations, p.I157T and c.1100delC. Furthermore, p.I157T was associated with lobular histological type and clinico-pathological markers of good prognosis, such as ER and PR expression, low TP53 expression and low grade. Gene expression analysis suggested luminal A to be the most common subtype for p.I157T carriers and CDH1 (cadherin 1) target genes to be significantly enriched among genes, whose expression differed between p.I157T and non-carrier tumors. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that there are fundamental differences in breast tumors of CHEK2:p.I157T and c.1100delC carriers. The poor prognosis associated with c.1100delC cannot be generalized to other CHEK2 mutations.

Polygenic risk score is associated with increased disease risk in 52 Finnish breast cancer families.

The risk of developing breast cancer is increased in women with family history of breast cancer and particularly in families with multiple cases of breast or ovarian cancer. Nevertheless, many women with a positive family history never develop the disease. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on the risk effects of multiple common genetic variants have been proposed for individual risk assessment on a population level. We investigate the applicability of the PRS for risk prediction within breast cancer families. We studied the association between breast cancer risk and a PRS based on 75 common genetic variants in 52 Finnish breast cancer families including 427 genotyped women and pedigree information on ~4000 additional individuals by comparing the affected to healthy family members, as well as in a case-control dataset comprising 1272 healthy population controls and 1681 breast cancer cases with information on family history. Family structure was summarized using the BOADICEA risk prediction model. The PRS was associated with increased disease risk in women with family history of breast cancer as well as in women within the breast cancer families. The odds ratio (OR) for breast cancer within the family dataset was 1.55 [95 % CI 1.26-1.91] per unit increase in the PRS, similar to OR in unselected breast cancer cases of the case-control dataset (1.49 [1.38-1.62]). High PRS-values were informative for risk prediction in breast cancer families, whereas for the low PRS-categories the results were inconclusive. The PRS is informative in women with family history of breast cancer and should be incorporated within pedigree-based clinical risk assessment.

Height and Breast Cancer Risk: Evidence From Prospective Studies and Mendelian Randomization.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have linked adult height with breast cancer risk in women. However, the magnitude of the association, particularly by subtypes of breast cancer, has not been established. Furthermore, the mechanisms of the association remain unclear. METHODS: We performed a meta-analysis to investigate associations between height and breast cancer risk using data from 159 prospective cohorts totaling 5216302 women, including 113178 events. In a consortium with individual-level data from 46325 case patients and 42482 control patients, we conducted a Mendelian randomization analysis using a genetic score that comprised 168 height-associated variants as an instrument. This association was further evaluated in a second consortium using summary statistics data from 16003 case patients and 41335 control patients. RESULTS: The pooled relative risk of breast cancer was 1.17 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15 to 1.19) per 10cm increase in height in the meta-analysis of prospective studies. In Mendelian randomization analysis, the odds ratio of breast cancer per 10cm increase in genetically predicted height was 1.22 (95% CI = 1.13 to 1.32) in the first consortium and 1.21 (95% CI = 1.05 to 1.39) in the second consortium. The association was found in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women but restricted to hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. Analyses of height-associated variants identified eight new loci associated with breast cancer risk after adjusting for multiple comparisons, including three loci at 1q21.2, DNAJC27, and CCDC91 at genome-wide significance level P < 5×10(-8). CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides strong evidence that adult height is a risk factor for breast cancer in women and certain genetic factors and biological pathways affecting adult height have an important role in the etiology of breast cancer.

Common germline polymorphisms associated with breast cancer-specific survival.

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies have identified common germline variants nominally associated with breast cancer survival. These associations have not been widely replicated in further studies. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association of previously reported SNPs with breast cancer-specific survival using data from a pooled analysis of eight breast cancer survival genome-wide association studies (GWAS) from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. METHODS: A literature review was conducted of all previously published associations between common germline variants and three survival outcomes: breast cancer-specific survival, overall survival and disease-free survival. All associations that reached the nominal significance level of P value <0.05 were included. Single nucleotide polymorphisms that had been previously reported as nominally associated with at least one survival outcome were evaluated in the pooled analysis of over 37,000 breast cancer cases for association with breast cancer-specific survival. Previous associations were evaluated using a one-sided test based on the reported direction of effect. RESULTS: Fifty-six variants from 45 previous publications were evaluated in the meta-analysis. Fifty-four of these were evaluated in the full set of 37,954 breast cancer cases with 2,900 events and the two additional variants were evaluated in a reduced sample size of 30,000 samples in order to ensure independence from the previously published studies. Five variants reached nominal significance (P <0.05) in the pooled GWAS data compared to 2.8 expected under the null hypothesis. Seven additional variants were associated (P <0.05) with ER-positive disease. CONCLUSIONS: Although no variants reached genome-wide significance (P <5 x 10(-8)), these results suggest that there is some evidence of association between candidate common germline variants and breast cancer prognosis. Larger studies from multinational collaborations are necessary to increase the power to detect associations, between common variants and prognosis, at more stringent significance levels.

The SNP rs6500843 in 16p13.3 is associated with survival specifically among chemotherapy-treated breast cancer patients.

We have utilized a two-stage study design to search for SNPs associated with the survival of breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Our initial GWS data set consisted of 805 Finnish breast cancer cases (360 treated with adjuvant chemotherapy). The top 39 SNPs from this stage were analyzed in three independent data sets: iCOGS (n=6720 chemotherapy-treated cases), SUCCESS-A (n=3596), and POSH (n=518). Two SNPs were successfully validated: rs6500843 (any chemotherapy; per-allele HR 1.16, 95% C.I. 1.08-1.26, p=0.0001, p(adjusted)=0.0091), and rs11155012 (anthracycline therapy; per-allele HR 1.21, 95% C.I. 1.08-1.35, p=0.0010, p(adjusted)=0.0270). The SNP rs6500843 was found to specifically interact with adjuvant chemotherapy, independently of standard prognostic markers (p(interaction)=0.0009), with the rs6500843-GG genotype corresponding to the highest hazard among chemotherapy-treated cases (HR 1.47, 95% C.I. 1.20-1.80). Upon trans-eQTL analysis of public microarray data, the rs6500843 locus was found to associate with the expression of a group of genes involved in cell cycle control, notably AURKA, the expression of which also exhibited differential prognostic value between chemotherapy-treated and untreated cases in our analysis of microarray data. Based on previously published information, we propose that the eQTL genes may be connected to the rs6500843 locus via a RBFOX1-FOXM1 -mediated regulatory pathway.

Identification of novel genetic markers of breast cancer survival.

BACKGROUND: Survival after a diagnosis of breast cancer varies considerably between patients, and some of this variation may be because of germline genetic variation. We aimed to identify genetic markers associated with breast cancer-specific survival. METHODS: We conducted a large meta-analysis of studies in populations of European ancestry, including 37954 patients with 2900 deaths from breast cancer. Each study had been genotyped for between 200000 and 900000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the genome; genotypes for nine million common variants were imputed using a common reference panel from the 1000 Genomes Project. We also carried out subtype-specific analyses based on 6881 estrogen receptor (ER)-negative patients (920 events) and 23059 ER-positive patients (1333 events). All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: We identified one new locus (rs2059614 at 11q24.2) associated with survival in ER-negative breast cancer cases (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.55 to 2.47, P = 1.91 x 10(-8)). Genotyping a subset of 2113 case patients, of which 300 were ER negative, provided supporting evidence for the quality of the imputation. The association in this set of case patients was stronger for the observed genotypes than for the imputed genotypes. A second locus (rs148760487 at 2q24.2) was associated at genome-wide statistical significance in initial analyses; the association was similar in ER-positive and ER-negative case patients. Here the results of genotyping suggested that the finding was less robust. CONCLUSIONS: This is currently the largest study investigating genetic variation associated with breast cancer survival. Our results have potential clinical implications, as they confirm that germline genotype can provide prognostic information in addition to standard tumor prognostic factors.

Prediction of breast cancer risk based on profiling with common genetic variants.

BACKGROUND: Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking. METHODS: We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates. RESULTS: There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report.

Assessment of variation in immunosuppressive pathway genes reveals TGFBR2 to be associated with prognosis of estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer after chemotherapy.

INTRODUCTION: Tumor lymphocyte infiltration is associated with clinical response to chemotherapy in estrogen receptor (ER) negative breast cancer. To identify variants in immunosuppressive pathway genes associated with prognosis after adjuvant chemotherapy for ER-negative patients, we studied stage I-III invasive breast cancer patients of European ancestry, including 9,334 ER-positive (3,151 treated with chemotherapy) and 2,334 ER-negative patients (1,499 treated with chemotherapy). METHODS: We pooled data from sixteen studies from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC), and employed two independent studies for replications. Overall 3,610 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 133 genes were genotyped as part of the Collaborative Oncological Gene-environment Study, in which phenotype and clinical data were collected and harmonized. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was used to assess genetic associations with overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS). Heterogeneity according to chemotherapy or ER status was evaluated with the log-likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: Three independent SNPs in TGFBR2 and IL12B were associated with OS (P <10⁻³) solely in ER-negative patients after chemotherapy (267 events). Poorer OS associated with TGFBR2 rs1367610 (G > C) (per allele hazard ratio (HR) 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22 to 1.95), P = 3.08 × 10⁻4) was not found in ER-negative patients without chemotherapy or ER-positive patients with chemotherapy (P for interaction <10-3). Two SNPs in IL12B (r² = 0.20) showed different associations with ER-negative disease after chemotherapy: rs2546892 (G > A) with poorer OS (HR 1.50 (95% CI 1.21 to 1.86), P = 1.81 × 10⁻4), and rs2853694 (A > C) with improved OS (HR 0.73 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.87), P = 3.67 × 10⁻4). Similar associations were observed with BCSS. Association with TGFBR2 rs1367610 but not IL12B variants replicated using BCAC Asian samples and the independent Prospective Study of Outcomes in Sporadic versus Hereditary Breast Cancer Study and yielded a combined HR of 1.57 ((95% CI 1.28 to 1.94), P = 2.05 × 10⁻5) without study heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: TGFBR2 variants may have prognostic and predictive value in ER-negative breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Our findings provide further insights into the development of immunotherapeutic targets for ER-negative breast cancer.