Designing a national pediatric critical care database: a Delphi consensus study.

PURPOSE: We sought to describe the processes undertaken for the systematic selection and consensus determination of the common data elements for inclusion in a national pediatric critical care database in Canada. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre Delphi consensus study of Canadian pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) participating in the creation of a national database. Participants were PICU health care professionals, allied health professionals, caregivers, and other stakeholders. A dedicated panel group created a baseline survey of data elements based on literature, current PICU databases, and expertise in the field. The survey was then used for a Delphi iterative consensus process over three rounds, conducted from March to June 2021. RESULTS: Of 86 invited participants, 68 (79%) engaged and agreed to participate as part of an expert panel. Panel participants were sent three rounds of the survey with response rates of 62 (91%), 61 (90%) and 55 (81%), respectively. After three rounds, 72 data elements were included from six domains, mostly reflecting clinical status and complex medical interventions received in the PICU. While race, gender, and home region were included by consensus, variables such as minority status, indigenous status, primary language, and ethnicity were not. CONCLUSION: We present the methodological framework used to select data elements by consensus for a national pediatric critical care database, with participation from a diverse stakeholder group of experts and caregivers from all PICUs in Canada. The selected core data elements will provide standardized and synthesized data for research, benchmarking, and quality improvement initiatives of critically ill children.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Nous avons cherché à décrire les processus entrepris pour la sélection systématique et la détermination consensuelle des éléments de données communs à inclure dans une base de données nationale sur les soins intensifs pédiatriques au Canada. MéTHODE: Nous avons mené une étude multicentrique de consensus selon la méthode Delphi sur les unités de soins intensifs pédiatriques (USIP) canadiennes participant à la création d'une base de données nationale. Les personnes participant à l'étude étaient des professionnel·les de la santé de l'USIP, du personnel paramédical, des soignant·es et d'autres intervenant·es. Un groupe de travail spécialisé a créé une enquête de base des éléments de données sur la littérature, les bases de données actuelles portant sur les USIP et l'expertise dans le domaine. L'enquête a ensuite été utilisée pour créer un processus de consensus itératif Delphi sur trois cycles, mené de mars à juin 2021. RéSULTATS: Sur les 86 personnes invitées à participer, 68 (79 %) se sont engagées et ont accepté de participer à un groupe d'experts. Les membres du panel ont reçu trois rondes du sondage, avec des taux de réponse de 62 (91 %), 61 (90 %) et 55 (81 %), respectivement. Après trois cycles, 72 éléments de données provenant de six domaines ont été inclus, reflétant principalement l'état clinique et les interventions médicales complexes reçues à l'USIP. Alors que la race, le genre et la région d'origine ont été inclus par consensus, des variables telles que le statut de minorité, le statut d'autochtone, la langue principale parlée et l'origine ethnique ne l'ont pas été. CONCLUSION: Nous présentons le cadre méthodologique utilisé pour sélectionner des éléments de données consensuels destinés à une base de données nationale sur les soins intensifs pédiatriques, avec la participation d'un groupe diversifié d'expert·es et de soignant·es de toutes les USIP au Canada. Les éléments de données de base sélectionnés fourniront des données normalisées et synthétisées pour la recherche, l'analyse comparative et les initiatives d'amélioration de la qualité pour les enfants gravement malades.

IV Vitamin C in Adults With Sepsis: A Bayesian Reanalysis of a Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVES: The Lessening Organ Dysfunction with Vitamin C trial showed a harmful effect of vitamin C on 28-day death or persistent organ dysfunction. To maximize interpretation, we present a post hoc Bayesian reanalysis. DESIGN: Bayesian reanalysis of a randomized placebo-controlled trial. SETTING: Thirty-five ICUs. PATIENTS: Adults with proven or suspected infection, vasopressor support, and no more than 24 hours of ICU admission. INTERVENTIONS: Patients were allocated to receive either vitamin C (50 mg/kg of body weight) or placebo every 6 hours for up to 96 hours. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary outcome was the composite of death or persistent organ dysfunction (i.e., vasopressor use, invasive mechanical ventilation, or new renal replacement therapy) at 28 days. We used Bayesian log-binomial models with random effects for hospital site and varying informative prior beliefs for the effect of vitamin C to estimate risk ratios (RRs) with 95% credible intervals (Crls) in the intention to treat population (vitamin C, 435 patients; placebo, 437 patients). Using weakly neutral priors, patients allocated to vitamin C had a higher risk of death or persistent organ dysfunction at 28 days (RR, 1.20; 95% Crl, 1.04-1.39; probability of harm, 99%). This effect was consistent when using optimistic (RR, 1.14; 95% Crl, 1.00-1.31; probability of harm, 98%) and empiric (RR, 1.09; 95% Crl, 0.97-1.22; probability of harm, 92%) priors. Patients allocated to vitamin C also had a higher risk of death at 28 days under weakly neutral (RR, 1.17; 95% Crl, 0.98-1.40; probability of harm, 96%), optimistic (RR, 1.10; 95% Crl, 0.94-1.30; probability of harm, 88%), and empiric (RR, 1.05; 95% Crl, 0.92-1.19; probability of harm, 76%) priors. CONCLUSIONS: The use of vitamin C in adult patients with proven or suspected infection and vasopressor support is associated with high probability of harm.

Lower Versus Higher Exposure to Vasopressor Therapy in Vasodilatory Hypotension: A Systematic Review With Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Balancing the risks of hypotension and vasopressor-associated adverse effects is a daily challenge in ICUs. We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to examine the effect of lower versus higher exposure to vasopressor therapy on mortality among adult ICU patients with vasodilatory hypotension. DATA SOURCES: We searched Ovid Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for studies published from inception to October 15, 2021. STUDY SELECTION: We included randomized controlled trials of lower versus higher exposure to vasopressor therapy in adult ICU patients with vasodilatory hypotension without language or publication status limits. DATA EXTRACTION: The primary outcome was 90-day all-cause mortality, with seven prespecified subgroups. Secondary outcomes included shorter- and longer-term mortality, use of life-sustaining therapies, vasopressor-related complications, neurologic outcome, and quality of life at longest reported follow-up. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses to calculate summary effect measures across individual studies (risk ratio [RR] for dichotomous variables, mean difference for continuous variables, both with 95% CIs). The certainty of the evidence was assessed using Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation. We registered this review on the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42021224434). DATA SYNTHESIS: Of 3,403 records retrieved, 68 full-text articles were reviewed and three eligible studies included. Lower exposure to vasopressors probably lowers 90-day mortality but this is based on moderate-certainty evidence, lowered for imprecision (RR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.87-1.02). There was no credible subgroup effect. Lower vasopressor exposure may also decrease the risk of supraventricular arrhythmia (odds ratio, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.36-0.86; low certainty). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with vasodilatory hypotension who are started on vasopressors, moderate-certainty evidence from three randomized trials showed that lower vasopressor exposure probably lowers mortality. However, additional trial data are needed to reach an optimal information size to detect a clinically important 10% relative reduction in mortality with this approach.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of implementing an integrated neonatal care kit to reduce neonatal infection in rural Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of distribution of the integrated neonatal care kit (iNCK) by community health workers from the healthcare payer perspective in Rahimyar Khan, Pakistan. SETTING: Rahimyar Khan, Pakistan. PARTICIPANTS: N/A. INTERVENTION: Cost-utility analysis using a Markov model based on cluster randomised controlled trial (cRCT: NCT02130856) data and a literature review. We compared distribution of the iNCK to pregnant mothers to local standard of care and followed infants over a lifetime horizon. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was incremental net monetary benefit (INMB, at a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$15.50), discounted at 3%. Secondary outcomes were life years, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and costs. RESULTS: At a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$15.50, distribution of the iNCK resulted in lower expected DALYs (28.7 vs 29.6 years) at lower expected cost (US$52.50 vs 55.20), translating to an INMB of US$10.22 per iNCK distributed. These results were sensitive to the baseline risk of infection, cost of the iNCK and the estimated effect of the iNCK on the relative risk of infection. At relative risks of infection below 0.79 and iNCK costs below US$25.90, the iNCK remained cost-effective compared with current local standard of care. CONCLUSION: The distribution of the iNCK dominated the current local standard of care (ie, the iNCK is less costly and more effective than current care standards). Most of the cost-effectiveness of the iNCK was attributable to a reduction in neonatal infection.

Hospital outcomes of children admitted to intensive care in British Columbia via interfacility transfer versus direct admission from 2015 to 2017: a descriptive analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric intensive care relies on having experienced and effective transport systems to transfer critically ill children to the appropriate centre for care. Our aim was to compare hospital outcomes among children admitted directly to a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) with those of children transferred from another facility. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive study using electronic medical records and the PICU database from the BC Children's Hospital. Patients admitted to the PICU from January 2015 to December 2017 were included. We excluded patients who were admitted electively, were admitted for recovery postoperatively, or had inconsistent or out-of-range addresses. We compared hospital mortality rates, use of mechanical ventilation within 24 hours of admission and length of PICU stay between children admitted directly from the BC Children's Hospital emergency department and those transferred from a referring institution. RESULTS: During the study period, there were 870 unique admissions comprising 386 direct admissions and 484 transferred patients. Transported patients were younger, were more critically ill on presentation and required longer stays. The proportions of children who died and of children who required mechanical ventilation within 24 hours of admission were higher in the transported group than in the group admitted directly from the emergency department (8.3% v. 3.9%, p = 0.008, and 75.8% v. 58.0%, p < 0.001, respectively). INTERPRETATION: Mortality rate and use of intensive care resources were higher among children who were transported. Further research is needed to examine the key factors driving the differences in outcomes, including the severity of illness on first presentation, transport team composition, and transport distance and duration.

Risk of dispersion or aerosol generation and infection transmission with nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs for detection of COVID-19: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: SARS-CoV-2-related disease, referred to as COVID-19, has emerged as a global pandemic since December 2019. While there is growing recognition regarding possible airborne transmission, particularly in the setting of aerosol-generating procedures and treatments, whether nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 generate aerosols remains unclear. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: We searched Ovid MEDLINE and EMBASE up to 3 November 2020. We also searched the China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Chinese Medical Journal Network, medRxiv and ClinicalTrials.gov up to 29 March 2020. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: All comparative and non-comparative studies that evaluated dispersion or aerosolisation of viable airborne organisms, or transmission of infection associated with nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab testing. RESULTS: Of 7702 citations, only one study was deemed eligible. Using a dedicated sampling room with negative pressure isolation room, personal protective equipment including N95 or higher masks, strict sterilisation protocols, structured training with standardised collection methods and a structured collection and delivery system, a tertiary care hospital proved a 0% healthcare worker infection rate among eight nurses conducting over 11 000 nasopharyngeal swabs. No studies examining transmissibility with other safety protocols, nor any studies quantifying the risk of aerosol generation with nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swabs for detection of SARS-CoV-2, were identified. CONCLUSIONS: There is limited to no published data regarding aerosol generation and risk of transmission with nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs for the detection of SARS-CoV-2. Field experiments to quantify this risk are warranted. Vigilance in adhering to current standards for infection control is suggested.

Clinical characteristics, treatment and outcomes of paediatric COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Compare paediatric COVID-19 disease characteristics, management and outcomes according to World Bank country income level and disease severity. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. SETTING: Between 1 December 2019 and 8 January 2021, 3350 articles were identified. Two reviewers conducted study screening, data abstraction and quality assessment independently and in duplicate. Observational studies describing laboratory-confirmed paediatric (0-19 years old) COVID-19 were considered for inclusion. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The pooled proportions of clinical findings, treatment and outcomes were compared according to World Bank country income level and reported disease severity. RESULTS: 129 studies were included from 31 countries comprising 10 251 children of which 57.4% were hospitalised. Mean age was 7.0 years (SD 3.6), and 27.1% had a comorbidity. Fever (63.3%) and cough (33.7%) were common. Of 3670 cases, 44.1% had radiographic abnormalities. The majority of cases recovered (88.9%); however, 96 hospitalised children died. Compared with high-income countries, in low-income and middle-income countries, a lower proportion of cases were admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) (9.9% vs 26.0%) yet pooled proportion of deaths among hospitalised children was higher (relative risk 2.14, 95% CI 1.43 to 3.20). Children with severe disease received antimicrobials, inotropes and anti-inflammatory agents more frequently than those with non-severe disease. Subgroup analyses showed that a higher proportion of children with multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) were admitted to ICU (47.1% vs 22.9%) and a higher proportion of hospitalised children with MIS-C died (4.8% vs 3.6%) compared with the overall sample. CONCLUSION: Paediatric COVID-19 has a favourable prognosis. Further severe disease characterisation in children is needed globally.

Application of systems dynamics and group model building to identify barriers and facilitators to acute care delivery in a resource limited setting.

BACKGROUND: Group model building (GMB) is a method to facilitate shared understanding of structures and relationships that determine system behaviors. This project aimed to determine the feasibility of GMB in a resource-limited setting and to use GMB to describe key barriers and facilitators to effective acute care delivery at a tertiary care hospital in Malawi. METHODS: Over 1 week, trained facilitators led three GMB sessions with two groups of healthcare providers to facilitate shared understanding of structures and relationships that determine system behaviors. One group aimed to identify factors that impact patient flow in the paediatric special care ward. The other aimed to identify factors impacting delivery of high-quality care in the paediatric accident and emergency room. Synthesized causal maps of factors influencing patient care were generated, revised, and qualitatively analyzed. RESULTS: Causal maps identified patient condition as the central modifier of acute care delivery. Severe illness and high volume of patients were identified as creating system strain in several domains: (1) physical space, (2) resource needs and utilization, (3) staff capabilities and (4) quality improvement. Stress in these domains results in worsening patient condition and perpetuating negative reinforcing feedback loops. Balancing factors inherent to the current system included (1) parental engagement, (2) provider resilience, (3) ease of communication and (4) patient death. Perceived strengths of the GMB process were representation of diverse stakeholder viewpoints and complex system synthesis in a visual causal pathway, the process inclusivity, development of shared understanding, new idea generation and momentum building. Challenges identified included time required for completion and potential for participant selection bias. CONCLUSIONS: GMB facilitated creation of a shared mental model, as a first step in optimizing acute care delivery in a paediatric facility in this resource-limited setting.

Challenges of implementing the Paediatric Surviving Sepsis Campaign International Guidelines 2020 in resource-limited settings: A real-world view beyond the academia.

The Surviving Sepsis Campaign International Guidelines for the Management of Septic Shock and Sepsis-associated Organ Dysfunction in Children was released in 2020 and is intended for use in all global settings that care for children with sepsis. However, practitioners managing children with sep sis in resource-limited settings (RLS) face several challenges and disease patterns not experienced by those in resource-rich settings. Based upon our collective experience from RLS, we aimed to reflect on the difficulties of implementing the international guidelines. We believe there is an urgent need for more evidence from RLS on feasible, efficacious approaches to the management of sepsis and septic shock that could be included in future context-specific guidelines.

Pediatric Emergency and Critical Care Resources and Infrastructure in Resource-Limited Settings: A Multicountry Survey.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the infrastructure and resources for pediatric emergency and critical care delivery in resource-limited settings worldwide. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey with survey items developed through literature review and revised following piloting. SETTING: The electronic survey was disseminated internationally in November 2019 via e-mail directories of pediatric intensive care societies and networks and using social media. PATIENTS: Healthcare providers who self-identified as working in resource-limited settings. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Results were summarized using descriptive statistics and resource availability was compared across World Bank country income groups. We received 328 responses (238 hospitals, 60 countries), predominantly in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa (n = 161, 67.4%). Hospitals were in low-income (28, 11.7%), middle-income (166, 69.5%), and high-income (44, 18.4%) countries. Across 174 PICU and adult ICU admitting children, there were statistically significant differences in the proportion of hospitals reporting consistent resource availability ("often" or "always") between country income groups (p < 0·05). Resources with limited availability in lower income countries included advanced ventilatory support, invasive and noninvasive monitoring, central venous access, renal replacement therapy, advanced imaging, microbiology, biochemistry, blood products, antibiotics, parenteral nutrition, and analgesic/sedative drugs. Seventy-seven ICUs (52.7%) were staffed 24/7 by a pediatric intensivist or anesthetist. The nurse-to-patient ratio was less than 1:2 in 71 ICUs (49.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Contemporary data demonstrate significant disparity in the availability of essential and advanced human and material resources for the care of critically ill children in resource-limited settings. Minimum standards for essential pediatric emergency and critical care in resource-limited settings are needed.

Global PARITY: Study Design for a Multi-Centered, International Point Prevalence Study to Estimate the Burden of Pediatric Acute Critical Illness in Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND: The burden of pediatric critical illness and resource utilization by children with critical illness in resource limited settings (RLS) are largely unknown. Without specific data that captures key aspects of critical illness, disease presentation, and resource utilization for pediatric populations in RLS, development of a contextual framework for appropriate, evidence-based interventions to guide allocation of limited but available resources is challenging. We present this methods paper which describes our efforts to determine the prevalence, etiology, hospital outcomes, and resource utilization associated with pediatric acute, critical illness in RLS globally. METHODS: We will conduct a prospective, observational, multicenter, multinational point prevalence study in sixty-one participating RLS hospitals from North, Central and South America, Africa, Middle East and South Asia with four sampling time points over a 12-month period. Children aged 29 days to 14 years evaluated for acute illness or injury in an emergency department) or directly admitted to an inpatient unit will be enrolled and followed for hospital outcomes and resource utilization for the first seven days of hospitalization. The primary outcome will be prevalence of acute critical illness, which Global PARITY has defined as death within 48 hours of presentation to the hospital, including ED mortality; or admission/transfer to an HDU or ICU; or transfer to another institution for a higher level-of-care; or receiving critical care-level interventions (vasopressor infusion, invasive mechanical ventilation, non-invasive mechanical ventilation) regardless of location in the hospital, among children presenting to the hospital. Secondary outcomes include etiology of critical illness, in-hospital mortality, cause of death, resource utilization, length of hospital stay, and change in neurocognitive status. Data will be managed via REDCap, aggregated, and analyzed across sites. DISCUSSION: This study is expected to address the current gap in understanding of the burden, etiology, resource utilization and outcomes associated with pediatric acute and critical illness in RLS. These data are crucial to inform future research and clinical management decisions and to improve global pediatric hospital outcomes.

High-flow nasal cannula for acute hypoxemic respiratory failure in patients with COVID-19: systematic reviews of effectiveness and its risks of aerosolization, dispersion, and infection transmission.

PURPOSE: We conducted two World Health Organization-commissioned reviews to inform use of high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) in patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We synthesized the evidence regarding efficacy and safety (review 1), as well as risks of droplet dispersion, aerosol generation, and associated transmission (review 2) of viral products. SOURCE: Literature searches were performed in Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Chinese databases, and medRxiv. Review 1: we synthesized results from randomized-controlled trials (RCTs) comparing HFNC to conventional oxygen therapy (COT) in critically ill patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. Review 2: we narratively summarized findings from studies evaluating droplet dispersion, aerosol generation, or infection transmission associated with HFNC. For both reviews, paired reviewers independently conducted screening, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment. We evaluated certainty of evidence using GRADE methodology. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: No eligible studies included COVID-19 patients. Review 1: 12 RCTs (n = 1,989 patients) provided low-certainty evidence that HFNC may reduce invasive ventilation (relative risk [RR], 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 0.99) and escalation of oxygen therapy (RR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.98) in patients with respiratory failure. Results provided no support for differences in mortality (moderate certainty), or in-hospital or intensive care length of stay (moderate and low certainty, respectively). Review 2: four studies evaluating droplet dispersion and three evaluating aerosol generation and dispersion provided very low certainty evidence. Two simulation studies and a crossover study showed mixed findings regarding the effect of HFNC on droplet dispersion. Although two simulation studies reported no associated increase in aerosol dispersion, one reported that higher flow rates were associated with increased regions of aerosol density. CONCLUSIONS: High-flow nasal cannula may reduce the need for invasive ventilation and escalation of therapy compared with COT in COVID-19 patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure. This benefit must be balanced against the unknown risk of airborne transmission.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: Nous avons réalisé deux comptes rendus sur commande de l'Organisation mondiale de la santé pour guider l'utilisation de canules nasales à haut débit (CNHD) chez les patients ayant contracté le coronavirus (COVID-19). Nous avons synthétisé les données probantes concernant leur efficacité et leur innocuité (compte rendu 1), ainsi que les risques de dispersion des gouttelettes, de génération d'aérosols, et de transmission associée d'éléments viraux (compte rendu 2). SOURCE: Des recherches de littérature ont été réalisées dans les bases de données Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, ainsi que dans les bases de données chinoises et medRxiv. Compte rendu 1 : nous avons synthétisé les résultats d'études randomisées contrôlées (ERC) comparant les CNHD à une oxygénothérapie conventionnelle chez des patients en état critique atteints d'insuffisance respiratoire hypoxémique aiguë. Compte rendu 2 : nous avons résumé sous forme narrative les constatations d'études évaluant la dispersion de gouttelettes, la génération d'aérosols ou la transmission infectieuse associées aux CNHD. Pour les deux comptes rendus, des réviseurs appariés ont réalisé la sélection des études, l'extraction des données et l'évaluation du risque de biais de manière indépendante. Nous avons évalué la certitude des données probantes en nous fondant sur la méthodologie GRADE. CONSTATATIONS PRINCIPALES: Aucune étude éligible n'incluait de patients atteints de COVID-19. Compte rendu 1 : 12 ERC (n = 1989 patients) ont fourni des données probantes de certitude faible selon lesquelles les CNHD réduiraient la ventilation invasive (risque relatif [RR], 0,85; intervalle de confiance [IC] 95 %, 0,74 à 0,99) et l'intensification de l'oxygénothérapie (RR, 0,71; IC 95 %, 0,51 à 0,98) chez les patients atteints d'insuffisance respiratoire. Les résultats n'ont pas démontré de différences en matière de mortalité (certitude modérée), ni de durée du séjour hospitalier ou à l'unité des soins intensifs (certitude modérée et faible, respectivement). Compte rendu 2 : quatre études évaluant la dispersion de gouttelettes et trois évaluant la génération et la dispersion d'aérosols ont fourni des données probantes de très faible certitude. Deux études de simulation et une étude croisée ont donné des résultats mitigés quant à l'effet des CNHD sur la dispersion des gouttelettes. Bien que deux études de simulation n'aient rapporté aucune augmentation associée concernant la dispersion d'aérosols, l'une a rapporté que des taux de débit plus élevés étaient associés à des régions à densité d'aérosols élevée plus grandes. CONCLUSION: Les canules nasales à haut débit pourraient réduire la nécessité de recourir à la ventilation invasive et l'escalade des traitements par rapport à l'oxygénothérapie conventionnelle chez les patients atteints de COVID-19 souffrant d'insuffisance respiratoire hypoxémique aiguë. Cet avantage doit être soupesé contre le risque inconnu de transmission atmosphérique.

Performance of Pediatric Mortality Prediction Models in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the performance of prognostic models for mortality or clinical deterioration events among hospitalized children developed or validated in low- and middle-income countries. STUDY DESIGN: A medical librarian systematically searched EMBASE, Ovid Medline, Scopus, Cochrane Library, EBSCO Global Health, LILACS, African Index Medicus, African Journals Online, African Healthline, Med-Carib, and Global Index Medicus (from 2000 to October 2019). We included citations that described the development or validation of a pediatric prognostic model for hospital mortality or clinical deterioration events in low- and middle-income countries. In duplicate and independently, we extracted data on included populations and model prognostic performance and evaluated risk of bias using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool. RESULTS: Of 41 279 unique citations, we included 15 studies describing 15 prognostic models for mortality and 3 models for clinical deterioration events. Six models were validated in >1 external cohort. The Lambarene Organ Dysfunction Score (0.85 [0.77-0.92]) and Signs of Inflammation in Children that Kill (0.85 [0.82-0.88]) had the highest summary C-statistics (95% CI) for discrimination. Calibration and classification measures were poorly reported. All models were at high risk of bias owing to inappropriate selection of predictor variables and handling of missing data and incomplete performance measure reporting. CONCLUSIONS: Several prognostic models for mortality and clinical deterioration events have been validated in single cohorts, with good discrimination. Rigorous validation that conforms to current standards for prediction model studies and updating of existing models are needed before clinical implementation.