What are Effective Strategies to Reduce Low-Value Care? An Analysis of 121 Randomized Deimplementation Studies.

BACKGROUND: Low-value care is healthcare leading to no or little clinical benefit for the patient. The best (combinations of) interventions to reduce low-value care are unclear. PURPOSE: To provide an overview of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating deimplementation strategies, to quantify the effectiveness and describe different combinations of strategies. METHODS: Analysis of 121 RCTs (1990-2019) evaluating a strategy to reduce low-value care, identified by a systematic review. Deimplementation strategies were described and associations between strategy characteristics and effectiveness explored. RESULTS: Of 109 trials comparing deimplementation to usual care, 75 (69%) reported a significant reduction of low-value healthcare practices. Seventy-three trials included in a quantitative analysis showed a median relative reduction of 17% (IQR 7%-42%). The effectiveness of deimplementation strategies was not associated with the number and types of interventions applied. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Most deimplementation strategies achieved a considerable reduction of low-value care. We found no signs that a particular type or number of interventions works best for deimplementation. Future deimplementation studies should map relevant contextual factors, such as the workplace culture or economic factors. Interventions should be tailored to these factors and provide details regarding sustainability of the effect.

Evaluation of low-dose aspirin in the prevention of recurrent spontaneous preterm labour (the APRIL study): A multicentre, randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal morbidity and mortality. The recurrence rate of spontaneous preterm birth is high, and additional preventive measures are required. Our objective was to assess the effectiveness of low-dose aspirin compared to placebo in the prevention of preterm birth in women with a previous spontaneous preterm birth. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a parallel multicentre, randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial (the APRIL study). The study was performed in 8 tertiary and 26 secondary care hospitals in the Netherlands. We included women with a singleton pregnancy and a history of spontaneous preterm birth of a singleton between 22 and 37 weeks. Participants were randomly assigned to aspirin 80 mg daily or placebo initiated between 8 and 16 weeks of gestation and continued until 36 weeks or delivery. Randomisation was computer generated, with allocation concealment by using sequentially numbered medication containers. Participants, their healthcare providers, and researchers were blinded for treatment allocation. The primary outcome was preterm birth <37 weeks of gestation. Secondary outcomes included a composite of poor neonatal outcome (bronchopulmonary dysplasia, periventricular leukomalacia > grade 1, intraventricular hemorrhage > grade 2, necrotising enterocolitis > stage 1, retinopathy of prematurity, culture proven sepsis, or perinatal death). Analyses were performed by intention to treat. From May 31, 2016 to June 13, 2019, 406 women were randomised to aspirin (n = 204) or placebo (n = 202). A total of 387 women (81.1% of white ethnic origin, mean age 32.5 ± SD 3.8) were included in the final analysis: 194 women were allocated to aspirin and 193 to placebo. Preterm birth <37 weeks occurred in 41 (21.2%) women in the aspirin group and 49 (25.4%) in the placebo group (relative risk (RR) 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58 to 1.20, p = 0.32). In women with ≥80% medication adherence, preterm birth occurred in 24 (19.2%) versus 30 (24.8%) women (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.25, p = 0.29). The rate of the composite of poor neonatal outcome was 4.6% (n = 9) versus 2.6% (n = 5) (RR 1.79, 95% CI 0.61 to 5.25, p = 0.29). Among all randomised women, serious adverse events occurred in 11 out of 204 (5.4%) women allocated to aspirin and 11 out of 202 (5.4%) women allocated to placebo. None of these serious adverse events was considered to be associated with treatment allocation. The main study limitation is the underpowered sample size due to the lower than expected preterm birth rates. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that low-dose aspirin did not significantly reduce the preterm birth rate in women with a previous spontaneous preterm birth. However, a modest reduction of preterm birth with aspirin cannot be ruled out. Further research is required to determine a possible beneficial effect of low-dose aspirin for women with a previous spontaneous preterm birth. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register (NL5553, NTR5675) https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/5553.

Estimated impact of introduction of new diagnostic criteria for gestational diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Implementation of new diagnostic criteria for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are still a subject of debate, mostly due to concerns regarding the effects on the number of women diagnosed with GDM and the risk profile of the women newly diagnosed. AIM: To estimate the impact of the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 criteria compared with the WHO 1999 criteria on the incidence of gestational diabetes mellitus as well as to determine the diagnostic accuracy for detecting adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a single center Dutch cohort of 3338 women undergoing a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test where the WHO 1999 criteria to diagnose GDM were clinically applied. Women were categorized into four groups: non-GDM by both criteria, GDM by WHO 1999 only (excluded from GDM), GDM by WHO 2013 only (newly diagnosed) and GDM by both criteria. We compared maternal characteristics, pregnancy outcomes and likelihood ratios for adverse pregnancy outcomes. RESULTS: Retrospectively applying the WHO 2013 criteria increased the cohort incidence by 13.1%, from 19.3% to 32.4%. Discordant diagnoses occurred in 21.3%; 4.1% would no longer be labelled as GDM, and 17.2% were newly diagnosed. Compared to the non-GDM group, women newly diagnosed were older, had higher rates of obesity, higher diastolic blood pressure and higher rates of caesarean deliveries. Their infants were more often delivered preterm, large-for-gestational-age and were at higher risk of a 5 min Apgar score < 7. Women excluded from GDM were older and had similar pregnancy outcomes compared to the non-GDM group, except for higher rates of shoulder dystocia (4.3% vs 1.3%, P = 0.015). Positive likelihood ratios for adverse outcomes in all groups were generally low, ranging from 0.54 to 2.95. CONCLUSION: Applying the WHO 2013 criteria would result in a substantial increase in GDM diagnoses. Newly diagnosed women are at increased risk for pregnancy adverse outcomes. This risk, however, seems to be lower than those identified by the WHO 1999 criteria. This could potentially influence the treatment effect that can be achieved in this group. Evidence on treatment effects in newly diagnosed women is urgently needed.

Thyroid-stimulating hormone and free thyroxine fail to predict the severity and clinical course of hyperemesis gravidarum: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the pathophysiology of hyperemesis gravidarum (HG). Proposed underlying causes are multifactorial and thyroid function is hypothesized to be causally involved. In this study, we aimed to assess the utility of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) as a marker and predictor for the severity and clinical course of HG. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study including women admitted for HG between 5 and 20 weeks of gestation in 19 hospitals in the Netherlands. Women with a medical history of thyroid disease were excluded. TSH and FT4 were measured at study entry. To adjust for gestational age, we calculated TSH multiples of the median (MoM). We assessed HG severity at study entry as severity of nausea and vomiting (by the Pregnancy Unique Quantification of Emesis and nausea score), weight change compared with prepregnancy weight, and quality of life. We assessed the clinical course of HG as severity of nausea and vomiting and quality of life 1 week after inclusion, duration of hospital admissions, and readmissions. We performed multivariable regression analysis with absolute TSH, TSH MoMs, and FT4. RESULTS: Between 2013 and 2016, 215 women participated in the cohort. TSH, TSH MoM, and FT4 were available for, respectively, 150, 126, and 106 of these women. Multivariable linear regression analysis showed that lower TSH MoM was significantly associated with increased weight loss or lower weight gain at study entry (ΔKg; ß = 2.00, 95% CI 0.47-3.53), whereas absolute TSH and FT4 were not. Lower TSH, not lower TSH MoM or FT4, was significantly associated with lower nausea and vomiting scores 1 week after inclusion (ß = 1.74, 95% CI 0.36-3.11). TSH and FT4 showed no association with any of the other markers of the severity or clinical course of HG. Twenty-one out of 215 (9.8%) women had gestational transient thyrotoxicosis. Women with gestational transient thyrotoxicosis had a lower quality of life 1 week after inclusion than women with no gestational transient thyrotoxicosis (p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show an inconsistent role for TSH, TSH MoM, or FT4 at time of admission and provide little guidance on the severity and clinical course of HG.

Strategies to reduce the use of low-value medical tests in primary care: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: It is recognised that medical tests are overused in primary care; however, it is unclear how best to reduce their use. AIM: To identify which strategies are effective in reducing the use of low-value medical tests in primary care settings. DESIGN AND SETTING: Systematic review. METHOD: The databases MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Rx for Change were searched (January 1990 to November 2019) for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated strategies to reduce the use of low-value medical tests in primary care settings. Two reviewers selected eligible RCTs, extracted data, and assessed their risk of bias. RESULTS: Of the 16 RCTs included in the review, 11 reported a statistically significant reduction in the use of low-value medical tests. The median of the differences between the relative reductions in the intervention and control arms was 17% (interquartile range 12% to 24%). Strategies using reminders or audit/feedback showed larger reduction than those without these components (22% versus 14%, and 22% versus 13%, respectively) and patient-targeted strategies showed larger reductions than those not targeted at patients (51% versus 17%). Very few studies investigated the sustainability of the effect, adverse events, cost-effectiveness, or patient-reported outcomes related to reducing the use of low-value tests. CONCLUSION: This review indicates that it is possible to reduce the use of low-value medical tests in primary care, especially by using multiple components including reminders, audit/feedback, and patient-targeted interventions. To implement these strategies widely in primary care settings, more research is needed not only to investigate their effectiveness, but also to examine adverse events, cost-effectiveness, and patient-reported outcomes.

Defining asthma in children: how well do parents, doctors and spirometry agree?

BACKGROUND: Because diagnosing asthma in school-aged children is challenging, a variety of proxies for asthma are used in clinical practice and research settings as indicators of this disease. We aimed to provide insight into the agreement between various asthma indicators based on parental report, medical diagnosis and spirometry. METHODS: Children from the WHISTLER birth cohort performed spirometry and were followed up with parental ISAAC (International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood) questionnaires about asthma at 5 and 8 years of age. Medical data were extracted from primary care records. We compared 15 asthma indicators based on parental report, medical diagnosis and spirometry using positive agreement, κ statistics and latent class cluster analysis. RESULTS: At 5 years of age, 1007 children completed a study visit, while 803 children visited at 8 years of age. Depending on the indicator, the responder and child's age, the asthma prevalence ranged from 0.2% to 26.6%. Cluster analysis revealed classes related to the presence of recent symptoms and a decreased lung function. Agreement between parents and doctors was generally low with κ coefficients ranging from 0.07 (recent wheeze) to 0.52 (recent asthma medication). Additionally, parental report showed to be sensitive to recall bias over time. CONCLUSIONS: Dependent on the asthma indicator, the responder and the age of the child, substantial differences in agreement were observed between commonly used indicators associated with asthmatic disease in school-aged children. Most agreement between parents and doctors was seen for objective and recent indicators such as the recent use of asthma medication. We advocate caution when literature with different asthma indicators is compared.

Maternal Sildenafil vs Placebo in Pregnant Women With Severe Early-Onset Fetal Growth Restriction: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Severe early onset fetal growth restriction caused by placental dysfunction leads to high rates of perinatal mortality and neonatal morbidity. The phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitor, sildenafil, inhibits cyclic guanosine monophosphate hydrolysis, thereby activating the effects of nitric oxide, and might improve uteroplacental function and subsequent perinatal outcomes. Objective: To determine whether sildenafil reduces perinatal mortality or major morbidity. Design, Setting, and Participants: This placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial was conducted at 10 tertiary referral centers and 1 general hospital in the Netherlands from January 20, 2015, to July 16, 2018. Participants included pregnant women between 20 and 30 weeks of gestation with severe fetal growth restriction, defined as fetal abdominal circumference below the third percentile or estimated fetal weight below the fifth percentile combined with Dopplers measurements outside reference ranges or a maternal hypertensive disorder. The trial was stopped early owing to safety concerns on July 19, 2018, whereas benefit on the primary outcome was unlikely. Data were analyzed from January 20, 2015, to January 18, 2019. The prespecified primary analysis was an intention-to-treat analysis including all randomized participants. Interventions: Participants were randomized to sildenafil, 25 mg, 3 times a day vs placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a composite of perinatal mortality or major neonatal morbidity until hospital discharge. Results: Out of 360 planned participants, a total of 216 pregnant women were included, with 108 women randomized to sildenafil (median gestational age at randomization, 24 weeks 5 days [interquartile range, 23 weeks 3 days to 25 weeks 5 days]; mean [SD] estimated fetal weight, 458 [160] g) and 108 women randomized to placebo (median gestational age, 25 weeks 0 days [interquartile range, 22 weeks 5 days to 26 weeks 3 days]; mean [SD] estimated fetal weight, 464 [186] g). In July 2018, the trial was halted owing to concerns that sildenafil may cause neonatal pulmonary hypertension, whereas benefit on the primary outcome was unlikely. The primary outcome, perinatal mortality or major neonatal morbidity, occurred in the offspring of 65 participants (60.2%) allocated to sildenafil vs 58 participants (54.2%) allocated to placebo (relative risk, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.88-1.40; P = .38). Pulmonary hypertension, a predefined outcome important for monitoring safety, occurred in 16 neonates (18.8%) in the sildenafil group vs 4 neonates (5.1%) in the placebo group (relative risk, 3.67; 95% CI, 1.28-10.51; P = .008). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that antenatal maternal sildenafil administration for severe early onset fetal growth restriction did not reduce the risk of perinatal mortality or major neonatal morbidity. The results suggest that sildenafil may increase the risk of neonatal pulmonary hypertension. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02277132.

Global molecular diversity of RSV - the "INFORM RSV" study.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a global cause of severe respiratory morbidity and mortality in infants. While preventive and therapeutic interventions are being developed, including antivirals, vaccines and monoclonal antibodies, little is known about the global molecular epidemiology of RSV. INFORM is a prospective, multicenter, global clinical study performed by ReSViNET to investigate the worldwide molecular diversity of RSV isolates collected from children less than 5 years of age. METHODS: The INFORM study is performed in 17 countries spanning all inhabited continents and will provide insight into the molecular epidemiology of circulating RSV strains worldwide. Sequencing of > 4000 RSV-positive respiratory samples is planned to detect temporal and geographical molecular patterns on a molecular level over five consecutive years. Additionally, RSV will be cultured from a subset of samples to study the functional implications of specific mutations in the viral genome including viral fitness and susceptibility to different monoclonal antibodies. DISCUSSION: The sequencing and functional results will be used to investigate susceptibility and resistance to novel RSV preventive or therapeutic interventions. Finally, a repository of globally collected RSV strains and a database of RSV sequences will be created.

Epidural-Related Fever and Maternal and Neonatal Morbidity: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: While epidural analgesia (EA) is associated with maternal fever during labor, the impact on the risk for maternal and/or neonatal sepsis is unknown. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic review was to investigate the effect of epidural-related intrapartum fever on maternal and neonatal outcomes. METHODS: OVID MEDLINE, OVID Embase, the Cochrane Library, Cochrane Controlled Register of Trials, and clinical trial registries were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCT) and observational cohort studies from inception to November 2018. A total of 761 studies were identified with 100 eligible for full-text review. Only articles investigating the relationship between EA and maternal fever during labor were eligible for inclusion. Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane's Risk of Bias tool and National Institute of Health Quality Assessment Tool. Two meta-analyses - one each for the RCT and observational cohort groups - were performed using the random-effects model of Mantel-Haenszel to produce summary risk ratios (RR) with 95% CI. RESULTS: Twelve RCTs and 16 observational cohort studies involving 579,157 parturients were included. RRs for maternal fever for the RCT and cohort analyses were 3.54 (95% CI 2.61-4.81) and 5.60 (95% CI 4.50-6.97), respectively. Meta-analyses of RR for maternal infection in both groups were infeasible given few occurrences. Meta-analysis of data from observational studies showed an increased risk for maternal antibiotic treatment in the epidural group (RR 2.60; 95% CI 1.31-5.17). For both analyses, neonates born to women with an epidural were not evaluated more often for suspected sepsis. Neither analysis reported an increased rate of neonatal bacteremia or neonatal antibiotic treatment after EA, although data precluded conclusiveness. CONCLUSION: EA increases the risk of intrapartum fever and maternal antibiotic treatment. However, a definite conclusion on whether EA increases the risk for a proven maternal and/or neonatal bacteremia cannot be drawn due to the low quality of data. Further research on whether epidural-related intrapartum fever is of infectious origin or not is therefore needed.

Study protocol for a randomised trial for atosiban versus placebo in threatened preterm birth: the APOSTEL 8 study.

INTRODUCTION: Preterm birth complicates >15 million pregnancies annually worldwide. In many countries, women who present with signs of preterm labour are treated with tocolytics for 48 hours. Although this delays birth, it has never been shown to improve neonatal outcome. In 2015, the WHO stated that the use of tocolytics should be reconsidered and that large placebo-controlled studies to evaluate the effectiveness of tocolytics are urgently needed. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We designed an international, multicentre, randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled clinical trial. Women with threatened preterm birth (gestational age 30-34 weeks), defined as uterine contractions with (1) a cervical length of < 15 mm or (2) a cervical length of 15-30 mm and a positive fibronectin test or (3) in centres where cervical length measurement is not part of the local protocol: a positive fibronectin test or insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (Actim-Partus test) or (4) ruptured membranes, will be randomly allocated to treatment with atosiban or placebo for 48 hours. The primary outcome is a composite of perinatal mortality and severe neonatal morbidity. Analysis will be by intention to treat. A sample size of 1514 participants (757 per group) will detect a reduction in adverse neonatal outcome from 10% to 6% (alpha 0.05, beta 0.2). A cost-effectiveness analysis will be performed from a societal perspective. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee (REC) of the Amsterdam University Medical Centres, location AMC, as well as the REC's in Dublin and the UK. The results will be presented at conferences and published in a peer-reviewed journal. Participants will be informed about the results. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Nederlands Trial Register (Trial NL6469).

Update of a clinical prediction model for serious bacterial infections in preschool children by adding a host-protein-based assay: a diagnostic study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether updating a diagnostic prediction model by adding a combination assay (tumour necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand, interferon γ induced protein-10 and C reactive protein (CRP)) can accurately identify children with pneumonia or other serious bacterial infections (SBIs). DESIGN: Observational double-blind diagnostic study. SETTING: Two hospitals in Israel and four hospitals in the Netherlands. PATIENTS: 591 children, aged 1-60 months, presenting with lower respiratory tract infections or fever without source. 96 of them had SBIs. The original Feverkidstool, a polytomous logistic regression model including clinical variables and CRP, was recalibrated and thereafter updated by using the assay. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Pneumonia, other SBIs or no SBI. RESULTS: The recalibrated original Feverkidstool discriminated well between SBIs and viral infections, with a c-statistic for pneumonia of 0.84 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.92) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.86) for other SBIs. The discriminatory ability increased when CRP was replaced by the combination assay; c-statistic for pneumonia increased to 0.89 (95% CI 0.82 to 0.96) and for other SBIs to 0.91 (95% CI 0.87 to 0.94). This updated Feverkidstool improved diagnosis of SBIs mainly in children with low-moderate risk estimates of SBIs. CONCLUSION: We improved the diagnostic accuracy of the Feverkidstool by replacing CRP with a combination assay to predict pneumonia or other SBIs in febrile children. The updated Feverkidstool has the largest potential to rule out bacterial infections and thus to decrease unnecessary antibiotic prescription in children with low-to-moderate predicted risk of SBIs.

External validation and update of a prognostic model to predict mortality in hospitalized adults with RSV: A retrospective Dutch cohort study.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant mortality in hospitalized adults. Prediction of poor outcomes improves targeted management and clinical outcomes. We externally validated and updated existing models to predict poor outcome in hospitalized RSV-infected adults. In this single center, retrospective, observational cohort study, we included hospitalized adults with respiratory tract infections (RTIs) and a positive polymerase chain reaction for RSV (A/B) on respiratory tract samples (2005-2018). We validated existing prediction models and updated the best discriminating model by revision, recalibration, and incremental value testing. We included 192 RSV-infected patients (median age 60.7 years, 57% male, 65% immunocompromised, and 43% with lower RTI). Sixteen patients (8%) died within 30 days. During hospitalization, 16 (8%) died, 30 (16%) were admitted to intensive care unit, 21 (11%) needed invasive mechanical ventilation, and 5 (3%) noninvasive positive pressure ventilation. Existing models performed moderately at external validation, with C-statistics 0.6 to 0.7 and moderate calibration. Updating to a model including lower RTI, chronic pulmonary disease, temperature, confusion and urea, increased the C-statistic to 0.76 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.91) to predict in-hospital mortality. In conclusion, existing models to predict poor prognosis among hospitalized RSV-infected adults perform moderately at external validation. A prognostic model may help to identify and treat RSV-infected adults at high-risk of death.

Association of a Multifaceted Intervention With Ordering of Unnecessary Laboratory Tests Among Caregivers in Internal Medicine Departments.

Importance: Inappropriate use of laboratory testing is a challenging problem. Estimated overuse rates of approximately 20% have been reported. Effective, sustainable solutions to stimulate optimal use are needed. Objective: To determine the association of a multifaceted intervention with laboratory test volume. Design, Setting, and Participants: A before-after quality improvement study was performed between August 1, 2016, and April 30, 2018, in the internal medicine departments of 4 teaching hospitals in the Netherlands. Data on laboratory order volumes from 19 comparable hospitals were used as controls. The participants were clinicians ordering laboratory tests. Interventions: The intervention included creating awareness through education and feedback, intensified supervision of residents, and changes in order entry systems. Interventions were performed by local project teams and guided by a central project team during a 6-month period. Sustainability was investigated during an 8-month follow-up period. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the change in slope for laboratory test volume. Secondary outcomes were change in slope for laboratory expenditure, order volumes and expenditure for other diagnostic procedures, and clinical outcomes. Data were collected on duration of hospital stay, rate of repeated outpatient visits, 30-day readmission rate, and rate of unexpected prolonged duration of hospital stay for patients admitted for pneumonia. Results: The numbers of internists and residents ordering tests in hospitals 1 to 4 were 16 and 30, 18 and 20, 13 and 17, and 21 and 60, respectively. Statistically significant changes in slope for laboratory test volume per patient contact were found at hospital 1 (change in slope, -1.55; 95% CI, -1.98 to -1.11; P < .001), hospital 3 (change in slope, -0.74; 95% CI, -1.42 to -0.07; P = .03), and hospital 4 (change in slope, -2.18; 95% CI, -3.27 to -1.08; P < .001). At hospital 2, the change in slope was not statistically significant (-0.34; 95% CI, -2.27 to 1.58; P = .73). Laboratory test volume per patient contact decreased by 11.4%, whereas the volume increased by 2.4% in 19 comparable hospitals. Statistically significant changes in slopes for laboratory costs and volumes and costs for other diagnostic procedures were also observed. Clinical outcomes were not associated with negative changes. Important facilitators were education, continuous attention for overuse, feedback, and residents' involvement. Important barriers were difficulties in data retrieval, difficulty in incorporation of principles in daily practice, and high resident turnover. Conclusions and relevance: A set of interventions aimed at changing caregivers' mindset was associated with a reduction in the laboratory test volume in all departments, whereas the volume increased in comparable hospitals in the Netherlands. This study provides a framework for nationwide implementation of interventions to reduce unnecessary laboratory testing.

Decision analytic modeling was useful to assess the impact of a prediction model on health outcomes before a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate how decision analytic models (DAMs) can be used to quantify impact of using a (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model in clinical practice and provide general guidance on how to perform such assessments. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A DAM was developed to assess the impact of using the HEART score for predicting major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Impact on patient health outcomes and health care costs was assessed in scenarios by varying compliance with and informed deviation (ID) (using additional clinical knowledge) from HEART score management recommendations. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was used to assess estimated impact robustness. RESULTS: Impact of using the HEART score on health outcomes and health care costs was influenced by an interplay of compliance with and ID from HEART score management recommendations. Compliance of 50% (with 0% ID) resulted in increased missed MACE and costs compared with usual care. Any compliance combined with at least 50% ID reduced both costs and missed MACE. Other scenarios yielded a reduction in missed MACE at higher costs. CONCLUSION: Decision analytic modeling is a useful approach to assess impact of using a prediction model in practice on health outcomes and health care costs. This approach is recommended before conducting an impact trial to improve its design and conduct.

Expert panel diagnosis demonstrated high reproducibility as reference standard in infectious diseases.

OBJECTIVE: If a gold standard is lacking in a diagnostic test accuracy study, expert diagnosis is frequently used as reference standard. However, interobserver and intraobserver agreements are imperfect. The aim of this study was to quantify the reproducibility of a panel diagnosis for pediatric infectious diseases. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Pediatricians from six countries adjudicated a diagnosis (i.e., bacterial infection, viral infection, or indeterminate) for febrile children. Diagnosis was reached when the majority of panel members came to the same diagnosis, leaving others inconclusive. We evaluated intraobserver and intrapanel agreement with 6 weeks and 3 years' time intervals. We calculated the proportion of inconclusive diagnosis for a three-, five-, and seven-expert panel. RESULTS: For both time intervals (i.e., 6 weeks and 3 years), intrapanel agreement was higher (kappa 0.88, 95%CI: 0.81-0.94 and 0.80, 95%CI: NA) compared to intraobserver agreement (kappa 0.77, 95%CI: 0.71-0.83 and 0.65, 95%CI: 0.52-0.78). After expanding the three-expert panel to five or seven experts, the proportion of inconclusive diagnoses (11%) remained the same. CONCLUSION: A panel consisting of three experts provides more reproducible diagnoses than an individual expert in children with lower respiratory tract infection or fever without source. Increasing the size of a panel beyond three experts has no major advantage for diagnosis reproducibility.

External validation of prognostic models for preeclampsia in a Dutch multicenter prospective cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To perform an external validation of all published prognostic models for first-trimester prediction of the risk of developing preeclampsia (PE). METHODS: Women <14 weeks of pregnancy were recruited in the Netherlands. All systematically identified prognostic models for PE that contained predictors commonly available were eligible for external validation. RESULTS: 3,736 women were included; 87 (2.3%) developed PE. Calibration was poor due to overestimation. Discrimination of 9 models for LO-PE ranged from 0.58 to 0.71 and of 9 models for all PE from 0.55 to 0.75. CONCLUSION: Only a few easily applicable prognostic models for all PE showed discrimination above 0.70, which is considered an acceptable performance.

Forcing dichotomous disease classification from reference standards leads to bias in diagnostic accuracy estimates: A simulation study.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to study the impact of ignoring uncertainty by forcing dichotomous classification (presence or absence) of the target disease on estimates of diagnostic accuracy of an index test. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We evaluated the bias in estimated index test accuracy when forcing an expert panel to make a dichotomous target disease classification for each individual. Data for various scenarios with expert panels were simulated by varying the number and accuracy of "component reference tests" available to the expert panel, index test sensitivity and specificity, and target disease prevalence. RESULTS: Index test accuracy estimates are likely to be biased when there is uncertainty surrounding the presence or absence of the target disease. Direction and amount of bias depend on the number and accuracy of component reference tests, target disease prevalence, and the true values of index test sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSION: In this simulation, forcing expert panels to make a dichotomous decision on target disease classification in the presence of uncertainty leads to biased estimates of index test accuracy. Empirical studies are needed to demonstrate whether this bias can be reduced by assigning a probability of target disease presence for each individual, or using advanced statistical methods to account for uncertainty in target disease classification.

RSV hospitalization in infancy increases the risk of current wheeze at age 6 in late preterm born children without atopic predisposition.

Severe respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection during infancy is associated with ongoing respiratory morbidity. In a large birth cohort of 2210 healthy preterm infants born at 32-35 weeks of gestation, we aimed to determine the role of atopy in the link between RSV hospitalization and current wheeze at age 6. We defined current wheeze as parent-reported wheeze or the use of respiratory medication in the past 12 months. Based on a positive family history of atopic disease, we distinguished between children with and without atopic predisposition. Six-year follow-up data was obtained in 997/1559 (64%) children of which 102 (10.2%) children had been hospitalized with RSV during infancy. Current wheeze was present in 184/997 (18.6%) children. RSV hospitalization was an independent risk factor for current wheeze in children without atopic predisposition (aOR 4.05 [95% CI 1.22-12.52]) but not in children with this atopic background (aOR 1.50 [95% CI 0.81-2.71]).Conclusion: This is the largest published birth cohort demonstrating that in late preterm infants, atopic predisposition defines the relationship between RSV hospitalization and current wheeze. Future RSV prevention trials aiming to prevent ongoing respiratory symptoms should be analyzed separately for atopic status. What is Known: • RSV infection is responsible for a significant burden of disease in young children worldwide. • Severe RSV infection in early life is associated with asthmatic symptoms later in life. What is New: • This is the largest published birth cohort reporting about the role of atopic predisposition in the link between severe RSV infection and current wheeze at school age. • We show that RSV hospitalization in infancy is an independent risk factor for current wheeze in late preterm children without atopic predisposition at age 6. This was not seen in children with atopic predisposition.

Detailed statistical analysis plan for the Dutch STRIDER (Sildenafil TheRapy In Dismal prognosis Early-onset fetal growth Restriction) randomised clinical trial on sildenafil versus placebo for pregnant women with severe early onset fetal growth restriction.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the Dutch Sildenafil therapy in dismal prognosis early onset fetal growth restriction (STRIDER) randomised clinical trial is to assess the beneficial and harmful effects of sildenafil versus placebo on fetal and neonatal mortality in pregnant women with severe early-onset fetal growth restriction. The objective of this detailed statistical analysis plan is to minimize the risks of selective reporting and data-driven analysis. SETTING: The setting is 10 tertiary care hospitals and one secondary care hospital in The Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: The participants will be 360 pregnant women with severe early-onset fetal growth restriction. INTERVENTIONS: The intervention is sildenafil 25 mg or placebo orally three times a day. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome is a composite of death or major neonatal morbidity assessed at hospital discharge. The secondary outcomes are neurodevelopmental impairment; mean scores of the Bayley III cognitive and motor assessment; the proportion of patients experiencing either preeclampsia or haemolysis, elevated liver enzymes, and low platelets syndrome; pulsatility index of uterine arteries, umbilical artery, and middle cerebral artery; birthweight; and gestational age at either delivery or intra-uterine death. RESULTS: A detailed statistical analysis is presented, including pre-defined exploratory outcomes and planned subgroup analyses. One interim analysis after 180 patients had completed the study was planned and a strategy to minimise the risks of type I errors due to repetitive testing is presented. During review of this manuscript the interim analysis was performed by the Data Safety Monitoring Board and early stopping of the trial was recommended. Final analyses will be conducted independently by two statistically qualified persons following the present plan. CONCLUSION: This pre-specified statistical analysis plan was written and submitted without knowledge of the unblinded data and updated after stopping of the trial at interim analysis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02277132 . Registered on 29 September 2014. Original protocol for the study: doi: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.56148.