Predicting current and future habitat of Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) under climate change.

Climate change is among the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss, threatening up to 15-30% of described species by the end of the twenty-first century. We estimated the current suitable habitat and forecasted future distribution ranges of Indian pangolin (Manis crassicaudata) under climate change scenarios. We collected occurrence records of Indian pangolin using burrow counts, remote camera records and previously published literature in Pakistan during 2021-2023. We downloaded bioclimatic data for current (1970-2000) and future (2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100) climate scenarios from the WorldClim database using the Hadley Global Environment Model (HadGEM3-GC31-LL). We used MaxEnt software to predict current and future distributions of Indian pangolin, then computed the amount of habitat lost, gained, and unchanged across periods. We obtained 560 Indian pangolin occurrences overall, 175 during the study, and 385 from our literature search. Model accuracy was very good (AUC = 0.885, TSS = 0.695), and jackknife tests of variable importance showed that the contribution of annual mean temperature (bio1) was greatest (33.4%), followed by the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio-12, 29.3%), temperature seasonality (bio 4, 25.9%), and precipitation seasonality (bio 15, 11.5%). The maxent model predicted that during the current time period (1970-2000) highly suitable habitat for Indian pangolin was (7270 km2, 2.2%), followed by moderately suitable (12,418 km2, 3.7%), less suitable (49,846 km2, 14.8%), and unsuitable habitat (268,355 km2, 79.4%). Highly suitable habitat decreased in the western part of the study area under most SSPs and in the central parts it declined under all SSPs and in future time periods. The predicted loss in the suitable habitat of the Indian pangolin was greatest (26.97%) under SSP 585 followed by SSP 126 (23.67%) during the time 2061-2080. The gain in suitable habitat of Indian pangolin was less than that of losses on average which ranged between 1.91 and 13.11% under all SSPs during all time periods. While the stable habitat of the Indian pangolin ranged between 64.60 and 83.85% under all SSPs during all time periods. Our study provides the current and future habitat ranges of Indian pangolin in the face of a changing climate. The findings of our study could be helpful for policymakers to set up conservation strategies for Indian pangolin in Pakistan.

Shifts in the Distribution Range and Niche Dynamics of the Globally Threatened Western Tragopan (Tragopan melanocephalus) Due to Climate Change and Human Population Pressure.

The impact of a changing climate, particularly global warming, often harms the distribution of pheasants, particularly those with limited endemic ranges. To effectively create plans of action aimed at conserving species facing threats such as the Western Tragopan, (Tragopan melanocephalus; Gray, 1829; Galliformes, found in the western Himalayas), it is crucial to understand how future distributions may be affected by anticipated climate change. This study utilized MaxEnt modeling to assess how suitable the habitat of the targeted species is likely to be under different climate scenarios. While similar studies have been conducted regionally, there has been no research on this particular endemic animal species found in the western Himalayas throughout the entire distribution range. The study utilized a total of 200 occurrence points; 19 bioclimatic, four anthropogenic, three topographic, and a vegetation variable were also used. To determine the most fitting model, species distribution modeling (SDM) was employed, and the MaxEnt calibration and optimization techniques were utilized. Data for projected climate scenarios of the 2050s and 2070s were obtained from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585. Among all the variables analyzed; aspect, precipitation of coldest quarter, mean diurnal range, enhanced vegetation index, precipitation of driest month, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, human footprint, precipitation of driest quarter, and temperature annual range were recognized as the most influential drivers, in that order. The predicted scenarios had high accuracy values (AUC-ROC > 0.9). Based on the feedback provided by the inhabitants, it was observed that the livability of the selected species could potentially rise (between 3.7 to 13%) in all projected scenarios of climate change, because this species is relocating towards the northern regions of the elevation gradient, which is farther from the residential areas, and their habitats are shrinking. The suitable habitats of the Tragopan melanocephalus in the Himalayan region will move significantly by 725 m upwards, because of predicted climate change. However, the fact that the species is considered extinct in most areas and only found in small patches suggests that further research is required to avert a further population decline and delineate the reasons leading to the regional extinction of the species. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for devising conservation strategies for Tragopan melanocephalus under the changing climate and provide a framework for subsequent surveillance efforts aimed at protecting the species.

Niche partitioning by sympatric civets in the Himalayan foothills of Pakistan.

Niche overlap between sympatric species can indicate the extent of interspecific competition. Sympatric competing species can exhibit spatial, temporal, and dietary adjustments to reduce competition. We investigated spatial, temporal, and dietary niche overlap of sympatric Asian palm civet (Paradoxurus hermaphroditus) and small Indian civet ( Viverricula indica), in and around Pir Lasura National Park, Pakistan. We used remote cameras to determine the frequency and timing of detections to estimate spatial and temporal overlap, and prey remains from scats to estimate dietary overlap. We collected scat samples of Asian palm civet (n = 108) and small Indian civet (n = 44) for dietary analysis. We found low spatial (Oij = 0.32) and temporal (Δ = 0.39) overlap, but high dietary niche overlap (0.9) between these two civet species. Both civet species were detected at only 11 camera sites and small Indian civets were detected most frequently during 2:00-5:00 h and 8:00-10:00 h, whereas Asian palm civets detections were greatest during 20:00-2:00 h. The overall niche breadth of Asian palm civet was slightly narrower (L = 9.69, Lst = 0.31) than that of the small Indian civet (L = 10, Lst = 0.52). We identified 27 dietary items (15 plant, 12 animal) from scats of Asian palm civet including Himalayan pear (Pyrus pashia; 27%), Indian gerbil (Tatera indica; 10%), Rhesus monkey (Macaca mulatta; 4%), and insects (5%). Scat analysis of small Indian civets revealed 17 prey items (eight plant, nine animal) including Himalayan pear (24%), domestic poultry (15%), Indian gerbil (11%), and house mouse (Mus musculus; 5%). Both civet species consumed fruits of cultivated orchard species. Spatial and temporal partitioning of landscapes containing diverse foods appears to facilitate coexistence between Asian palm civets and small Indian civets.

Appearances often deceive in racerunners: integrative approach reveals two new species of Eremias (Squamata: Lacertidae) from Pakistan.

Based on newly provided morphological and previously published genetic data, we describe two new distinctive sympatric lacertid lizards of the genus Eremias (subgenus Aspidorhinus) from the arid mountains of northwestern Balochistan Province, Pakistan. The new species, Eremias killasaifullahi sp. nov. and Eremias rafiqi sp. nov. are distinguished from all other species of the subgenus Aspidorhinus (E. afghanistanica, E. fahimii, E. isfahanica, E. kopetdaghica, E. lalezharica, E. montana, E. nikolskii, E. papenfussi, E. persica, E. regeli, E. roborowskii, E. strauchi, E. suphani, and E. velox) by unique morphological characters and genetic differentiation. In the molecular phylogeny of Aspidorhinus, both new taxa are well-supported lineages differentiated from other species of this subgenus by uncorrected p distances from 8.5% to 21.6%, respectively. Both new species belong to E. persica complex where E. rafiqi sp. nov. is partly similar in dorsal color pattern to E. persica but can be distinguished from this species by unique meristic and morphometric characters. Eremias rafiqi sp. nov. is found in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and eastern Iran. Eremias killasaifullahi sp. nov. can be differentiated from E. persica by its distant distribution, dorsal color and pattern, smaller size, and less number of gulars and ventral scales. Eremias killasaifullahi sp. nov. is only known from the type locality and represents the local microendemism, along with other endemic species of reptiles reported from this part of Pakistan. We, however, expect that E. killasaifullahi sp. nov. could have a broader range in northwestern Pakistan and southeastern Afghanistan, which should be an object of following investigations. Our data show that remote areas between Hindu Kush Mountains and Indus River need attention as they most probably represent possible sources of genetic and species diversity in the region.

Medicinal waterbirds in the traditional healthcare system: an assessment of biodiversity-cultural linkages in Eastern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Eastern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is home to a vast range of medicinal and edible waterbird species due to its diverse geographical environment. Waterbird species have been used for various ailments and cultural practices since ancient times, while ethno-pharmacological applications and cultural uses of waterbird species in this area have seldom been documented. This study is the first ethnomedicinal and cultural assessment of waterbird species, and the first compilation and listing of all known data on these species in Eastern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. METHODS: Interviews and questionnaires were used to collect data from native respondents (N = 100). To analyze the data, principal component analysis (PCA), relative frequency of citation (RFC), fidelity level (FL%), relative popularity level (RPL), rank order priority, and similarity index were used. RESULTS: In total, 64 waterbird species were utilized in cultural practices, of which 40 species are used to cure different infectious and chronic diseases such as cold, cough, flu, fever, respiratory disorders, asthma, TB, gastric ulcers, kidney stones, male impotency, obesity, paralysis, piles, cancer, arthritis, body pain, and weakness. PCA showed significant differences in the use of waterbird species among the local inhabitants of the study area, separated along the axis-2 (p < 0.05). The FL% of waterbird species varied from 12 to 100%. 100% FL was analyzed for four waterbird species, i.e., Charadrius mongolus (cold), Gallicrex cinerea (asthma), Anas platyrhynchos (cancer), and Esacus recurvirostris (body weakness). In this study, Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) was the most popular species used in the healthcare system of Eastern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with high RFC (4.06), FL% (100), and RPL (1.0) values. CONCLUSION: We concluded that waterbird species are more used for medicine and food purposes in the study area. However, in vitro/in vivo assessment of biochemical activities of waterbird species with a maximum FL% might be significant to produce novel drugs. Recent research shows important ethno-ornithological information about native people and their links with waterbird species, which might be helpful for the sustainable use of waterbird diversity in the research area.

Morphological and molecular characterization of Tatera indica Hardwicke 1807 (Rodentia: Muridae) from Pothwar, Pakistan.

Genus Tatera is comprised of 12 species, but only one species, Tatera indica, exists in Asia. T. indica is considered an agricultural pest and host of a few zoonotic diseases. However, the data on morphological characteristics are published, but the aspect of molecular characterization is lacking to confirm the status of subspecies in most of the Asian countries including Pakistan. Therefore, the present study is the first study on morphological and molecular characterization of T. indica to get a phylogenetic relationship with the population of T. indica in Pakistan. Almost all the morphometric, cranial, and dental values of T. indica were lower in the present study as compared to the specimen from Iran, Syria, and Turkey. The molecular analysis indicated the presence of sub-species of T. indica. Interestingly, the cytochrome b gene sequence showed more resemblance to the Iranian rat than the previously reported sequence of a Pakistani T. indica. Iran shares a border with Pakistan, and migration between the two countries could be a possible reason. The resembling morphometric data on Iranian rats also explain this phenomenon. The present study found, although minor, evidence of the presence of sub-species even within Pakistan. Unfortunately, the previously submitted sequence from Pakistan was not supplemented with morphometric data and the exact capturing site of the rat. Therefore, further molecular and morphometric data from other regions are required to confirm the presence of sub-species.

Spatial Distribution and Dietary Niche Breadth of Leopard Cats (Prionailurus bengalensis) Inhabiting Margalla Hills National Park, Pakistan.

The leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis) is distributed throughout the Himalayan foothills in Pakistan and occurs in moist temperate and dry coniferous forests. However, the cat species is categorized as "Data Deficient" in Pakistan. In the current study we aimed to investigate the leopard cat distribution and dietary niche in the Margalla Hills National Park, the lowest part of the Himalayan foothills in Pakistan. We recorded direct (field observations, camera trapping) and indirect signs (scats) of the species on 23 trails /tracks in the study area. The leopard cat was recorded at 13 different sampling sites in the park, with an altitudinal range between 664-1441 m asl. The diet composition of the species was investigated through scat analysis, with the species identity of the scats confirmed through the mitochondrial cytB region. The species' diet comprised both animal and plant matter. The animal-based diet (in terms of frequency of occurrence) contained wild (51.75%) as well as domestic prey (7.69%), and plant species (31.47%). Wild prey included small mammals (rodents, two mongoose species, Asian palm squirrel, and Cape hare), birds, insects and snails. The domestic prey were poultry birds, sheep, goats and dogs. Consumption of wild prey was higher in summer (n = 31 scat), whereas intake of domestic prey was higher in winter (n = 37 scats). The dietary niche breadth was wider 14.84 in summer than winter 10.67. A chi-square test showed a significant difference in seasonal dietary intake of the leopard cat. The study concludes that the leopard cat feeds mainly on wild animal prey and plant species; however, in winter consumption of domestic prey increases.

Range contraction of snow leopard (Panthera uncia).

Snow Leopard (Panthera uncia) is native to mountain ranges of Central and South Asia, where it occurs from 3,000-4500 m elevation. The species is enlisted as "Endangered" by IUCN and its populations are reportedly declining. In the current study, we compared the past and current distribution ranges of the species using spatial analysis. We used Quantum Geographical Information System (QGIS) software to reconstruct and quantify its past distribution range and compare with its current one. Snow leopard was found more widely distributed in the past having a distribution range of approximately 10.47 million km2 against the current 3.20 million km2. Range contraction of the species approximates 69%. A total of 719 terrestrial protected areas of Asia (out of total 7209) had this species in the past whereas at current, only 311 protected areas support this species. The results emphasize escalating conservation efforts to save its remaining distribution range.

Assessment of bias in morphological identification of carnivore scats confirmed with molecular scatology in north-eastern Himalayan region of Pakistan.

Scats are often used to study ecological parameters of carnivore species. However, field identification of carnivore scats, based on their morphological characteristics, becomes difficult if many carnivore species are distributed in the same area. We assessed error rates in morphological identification of five sympatric carnivores' scats in north-eastern Himalayan region of Pakistan during 2013-2017. A sample of 149 scats were subjected to molecular identification using fecal DNA. We used a confusion matrix to assess different types of errors associated with carnivore scat identification. We were able to amplify DNA from 96.6% (n = 144) of scats. Based on field identification of carnivore scats, we had predicted that out of 144 scats: 11 (7.6%) scats were from common leopard, 38 (26.4%) from red fox, 29 (20.1%) from Asiatic jackal, 37 (25.7%) from yellow throated martin, 14 (9.7%) from Asian palm civet and 15 (10.4%) from small Indian civet. However, molecular identification revealed and confirmed nine were scats (6.24%) from common leopard, 40 (27.8 %) from red fox, 21 (14.6%) from Asiatic jackal, 45 (31.25%) from Asian palm civet, 12 (8.3%) scats from small Indian civet, while 11 scats (7.6%) were found from Canis lupus Spp., three (2%) from dog, one (0.7 %) scat sample from porcupine, and two (1.4%) from rhesus monkey. Misidentification rate was highest for Asian palm civet (25.7%), followed by red fox (11.1%) and Asiatic jackal (9.7%) but least for common leopard scats (4.2%). The results specific to our study area concur with previous studies that have recommended that carnivore monitoring programs utilize molecular identification of predator scats. Using only morphological identification of scats can be misleading and may result in wrong management decisions.

Mitochondrial Genetic Diversity and Phylogeography of Mus musculus castaneus in Northern Punjab, Pakistan.

Regions of Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and northwestern India have been proposed as the place of origin of Mus musculus castaneus. But despite the fact that Pakistan encompasses an important part of its range, M. m. castaneus populations in Pakistan have not been the subject of intensive genetic and biogeographic studies, except for a very small number of samples included in past studies. We studied genetic variation in M. m. castaneus (CAS) from northern Punjab Province, Pakistan, by using cytochrome b (Cytb) analysis in a sample of 98 individuals. Median-joining network revealed four well differentiated CAS sub-lineages coexisting within a small geographical region; these had previously been thought to have largely non-overlapping geographic distributions. Moreover, haplotypes from Pakistan occupied a central position in the network and all identified global haplotypes were also present in Pakistan. All identified CAS sub-lineages proved to be highly diverse on the basis of haplotype and nucleotide diversity indices. Tajima's D test and Fu's Fs tests of neutrality suggest recent population expansions in all sub-lineages. Expansion times were estimated as 21,760-134,930, 10,800-64,400 and 4950-30,665 ybp using substitution rates of 2.5%, 5% and 11%, respectively. Our results support the hypothesis that northern Punjab Province in Pakistan is the most likely source area for M. m. castaneus, and that the CAS sub-lineages in this region have undergone rapid population expansion events at different time periods, which appear to have benefitted from human-mediated transport, although one of them clearly predates the establishment of human settlements in this region.