Development of interpretable machine learning models to predict in-hospital prognosis of acute heart failure patients.

AIMS: In recent years, there has been remarkable development in machine learning (ML) models, showing a trend towards high prediction performance. ML models with high prediction performance often become structurally complex and are frequently perceived as black boxes, hindering intuitive interpretation of the prediction results. We aimed to develop ML models with high prediction performance, interpretability, and superior risk stratification to predict in-hospital mortality and worsening heart failure (WHF) in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Based on the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, which enrolled 4056 patients with AHF, we developed prediction models for in-hospital mortality and WHF using information obtained on the first day of admission (demographics, physical examination, blood test results, etc.). After excluding 16 patients who died on the first or second day of admission, the original dataset (n = 4040) was split 4:1 into training (n = 3232) and test datasets (n = 808). Based on the training dataset, we developed three types of prediction models: (i) the classification and regression trees (CART) model; (ii) the random forest (RF) model; and (iii) the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model. The performance of each model was evaluated using the test dataset, based on metrics including sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and calibration slope. For the complex structure of the XGBoost model, we performed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, classifying patients into interpretable clusters. In the original dataset, the proportion of females was 44.8% (1809/4040), and the average age was 77.9 ± 12.0. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.3% (255/4040) and the WHF rate was 22.3% (900/4040) in the total study population. In the in-hospital mortality prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.816 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.815-0.818], surpassing the AUC values for the CART model (0.683, 95% CI: 0.680-0.685) and the RF model (0.755, 95% CI: 0.753-0.757). Similarly, in the WHF prediction, the AUC for the XGBoost model was 0.766 (95% CI: 0.765-0.768), outperforming the AUC values for the CART model (0.688, 95% CI: 0.686-0.689) and the RF model (0.713, 95% CI: 0.711-0.714). In the XGBoost model, interpretable clusters were formed, and the rates of in-hospital mortality and WHF were similar among each cluster in both the training and test datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The XGBoost models with SHAP analysis provide high prediction performance, interpretability, and reproducible risk stratification for in-hospital mortality and WHF for patients with AHF.

Concomitant Mitral Regurgitation in Severe Aortic Stenosis　- Insights From the CURRENT AS Registry-2.

BACKGROUND: Data on concomitant mitral regurgitation (MR) in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS) are scarce.Methods and Results: We investigated the risk of concomitant MR in patients with severe AS in the CURRENT AS Registry-2 according to initial treatment strategy (transcatheter aortic valve implantation [TAVI], surgical aortic valve replacement [SAVR], or conservative). Among 3,365 patients with severe AS, 384 (11.4%) had moderate/severe MR (TAVI: n=126/1,148; SAVR: n=68/591; conservative: n=190/1,626). The cumulative 3-year incidence for death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization was significantly higher in the moderate/severe than no/mild MR group in the entire population (54.6% vs. 34.3%, respectively; P<0.001) and for each treatment strategy (TAVI: 45.0% vs. 31.8% [P=0.006]; SAVR: 31.9% vs. 18.7% [P<0.001]; conservative: 67.8% vs. 41.6% [P<0.001]). The higher adjusted risk of moderate/severe MR relative to no/mild MR for death or HF hospitalization was not significant in the entire population (hazard ratio [HR] 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95-1.39; P=0.15); however, the risk was significant in the SAVR (HR 1.92; 95% CI 1.04-3.56; P=0.04) and conservative (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.02-1.67; P=0.04) groups, but not in the TAVI group (HR 1.03; 95% CI 0.70-1.52; P=0.86), despite no significant interaction (Pinteraction=0.37). CONCLUSIONS: Moderate/severe MR was associated with a higher risk for death or HF hospitalization in the initial SAVR and conservative strategies, while the association was less pronounced in the initial TAVI strategy.

Auxiliary roles of nardilysin in the early diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome: a prospective cohort study, the Nardi-ACS study.

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) includes myocardial infarction (MI) and unstable angina (UA). MI is defined by elevated necrosis markers, preferably high-sensitivity cardiac troponins (hs-cTn). However, it takes hours for cTn to become elevated after coronary occlusion; therefore, difficulties are associated with diagnosing early post-onset MI or UA. The aim of this prospective cohort study was to examine the diagnostic ability of serum nardilysin (NRDC) for the early detection of ACS. This study consisted of two sequential cohorts, the Phase I cohort, 435 patients presenting to the emergency room (ER) with chest pain, and the Phase II cohort, 486 patients with chest pain who underwent coronary angiography. The final diagnosis was ACS in 155 out of 435 patients (35.6%) in the phase I and 418 out of 486 (86.0%) in the phase II cohort. Among 680 patients who presented within 24 h of onset, 466 patients (68.5%) were diagnosed with ACS. Serum NRDC levels were significantly higher in patients with ACS than in those without ACS. The sensitivity of NRDC in patients who presented within 6 h after the onset was higher than that of hsTnI, and the AUC of NRDC within 1 h of the onset was higher than that of hsTnI (0.718 versus 0.633). Among hsTnI-negative patients (300 of 680 patients: 44.1%), 136 of whom (45.3%) were diagnosed with ACS, the sensitivity and the NPV of NRDC were 73.5 and 65.7%, respectively. When measured in combination with hsTnI, NRDC plays auxiliary roles in the early diagnosis of ACS.

Effectiveness and safety of morphine administration for refractory dyspnoea among hospitalised patients with advanced heart failure: the Morphine-HF study.

OBJECTIVES: Morphine is effective in alleviating dyspnoea in patients with cancer. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness and safety of morphine administration for refractory dyspnoea in patients with advanced heart failure (HF). METHODS: We conducted a multicentre, prospective, observational study of hospitalised patients with advanced HF in whom morphine was administered for refractory dyspnoea. Morphine effectiveness was evaluated by dyspnoea intensity changes, assessed regularly by both a quantitative subjective scale (Visual Analogue Scale (VAS; graded from 0 to 100 mm)) and an objective scale (Support Team Assessment Schedule-Japanese (STAS-J; graded from 0 to 4 points)). Safety was assessed by vital sign changes and new-onset severe adverse events, including nausea, vomiting, constipation and delirium based on the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events. RESULTS: From 15 Japanese institutions between September 2020 and August 2022, we included 28 hospitalised patients with advanced HF in whom morphine was administered (mean age: 83.8±8.7 years, male: 15 (54%), New York Heart Association class IV: 26 (93%) and mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 38%±19%). Both VAS and STAS-J significantly improved from baseline to day 1 (VAS: 67±26 to 50±31 mm; p=0.02 and STAS-J: 3.3±0.8 to 2.6±1.1 points; p=0.006, respectively), and thereafter the improvements sustained through to day 7. After morphine administration, vital signs including blood pressure, pulse rate and oxygen saturation did not change, and no new-onset severe adverse events occurred through to day 7. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggested acceptable effectiveness and safety for morphine administration in treating refractory dyspnoea in hospitalised patients with advanced HF.

In-hospital outcomes after SAVR or TAVI in patients with severe aortic stenosis.

There were no data comparing the in-hospital outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) with those after surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in Japan. Among consecutive patients with severe AS between April 2018 and December 2020 in the CURRENT AS Registry-2, we identified 1714 patients who underwent aortic valve replacement (TAVI group: 1134 patients, and SAVR group: 580 patients). Patients in the TAVI group were much older (84.4 versus 73.6 years, P < 0.001) and more often had comorbidities than those in the SAVR group. In-hospital death rate was numerically lower in the TAVI group than in the SAVR group (0.6% versus 2.2%). After excluding patients with dialysis, in-hospital death rate was very low and comparable in the TAVI and SAVR groups (0.6% versus 0.8%). The rates of major bleeding and new-onset atrial fibrillation during index hospitalization were higher after SAVR than after TAVI (72% versus 20%, and 26% versus 4.6%, respectively), while the rate of pacemaker implantation was higher after TAVI than after SAVR (8.1% versus 2.4%). Regarding the echocardiographic data at discharge, the prevalence of patient-prosthesis mismatch was lower in the TAVI group than in the SAVR group (moderate: 9.0% versus 26%, and severe: 2.6% versus 4.8%). In this real-world data in Japan, TAVI compared with SAVR was chosen in much older patients with more comorbidities with severe AS. In-hospital death rate was numerically lower in the TAVI group than in the SAVR group.

Effects of peripheral artery disease on long-term outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention versus coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with severe coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: There is a scarcity of data evaluating the effect of peripheral artery disease (PAD) on long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) relative to coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in patients with severe coronary artery disease in real-world practice. METHODS: Among 14,867 consecutive patients who underwent their first coronary revascularization with PCI or isolated CABG between 2011 and 2013 in the CREDO-Kyoto PCI/CABG registry Cohort-3, the current study population consisted of 3380 patients with three-vessel coronary artery disease or left main coronary artery disease. Long-term clinical outcomes were compared between PCI and CABG stratified by the presence or absence of PAD. Median clinical follow-up was 5.9 (IQR: 5.1-6.8) years. RESULTS: There were 461 patients with PAD (PCI: N = 307, CABG: N = 154), and 2919 patients without PAD (PCI: N = 1823, CABG: N = 1096). The cumulative 5-year mortality after coronary revascularization was 31.2 % in patients with PAD and 16.2 % in those without PAD (p < 0.0001). There was a higher risk of PCI relative to CABG for all-cause death in patients with and without PAD (adjusted HR, 1.59; 95%CI, 0.99-2.53; p = 0.054, and HR, 1.25; 95%CI, 1.01-1.56; p = 0.04) without interaction (p interaction p = 0.48); Nevertheless, there was no excess risk of PCI relative to CABG for cardiovascular death regardless of PAD. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term mortality after coronary revascularization was significantly higher in severe CAD patients with PAD than those without PAD. There was a higher mortality risk of PCI relative to CABG in patients with and without PAD without interaction, which was mainly driven by excess non-cardiovascular deaths.

Association Between the Liver Fibrosis Markers and Scores, and Hemodynamic Congestion Assessed by Peripheral Venous Pressure in Patients With Acute Heart Failure.

Background Peripheral venous pressure (PVP) has been shown to be a reliable surrogate for right atrial pressure in assessing congestion in patients with heart failure (HF). Liver fibrosis markers and scores can be useful in assessing organ injury in patients with acute HF. This study aimed to investigate the association of liver fibrosis markers and scores with PVP in patients with acute HF. Methods and Results The 7S domain of the collagen type IV N-terminal propeptide (P4NP 7S), aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index, fibrosis-4, and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score were determined along with PVP measurements before discharge in 229 patients with acute HF. The strongest correlation with PVP was found for P4NP 7S (Pearson r=0.40). Patients with high P4NP 7S levels (≥median [6.2 ng/mL]) had an increased risk of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.80 [95% CI, 1.09-3.04], P=0.02). The concomitant high PVP (≥mean [8 mm Hg])/high P4NP 7S group, in contrast to the high PVP/low P4NP 7S or low PVP/high P4NP 7S group, had a significant risk relative to the low PVP/low P4NP 7S group for cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization (adjusted HR, 2.63 [95% CI, 1.43-5.05], P=0.002). A sustained elevation in PVP for 1 month postdischarge was associated with a persistent increase in P4NP 7S. Conclusions The study demonstrated the relationship between the liver fibrosis marker P4NP 7S and congestion. PVP and P4NP 7S could be useful for assessing congestion-related organ injury and predicting prognosis in patients with acute HF.

The characteristics and outcomes in patients with acute heart failure who used tolvaptan: from KCHF registry.

AIMS: The use of tolvaptan is increasing in clinical practice in Japan. However, the characteristics of patients who used tolvaptan and the timing of its use in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) are not fully elucidated. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among consecutive 4056 patients in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 3802 patients after excluding patients on dialysis, prior or unknown tolvaptan use at admission, and unknown timing of tolvaptan use, and we divided them into two groups: tolvaptan use (N = 773) and no tolvaptan use (N = 3029). The prevalence of tolvaptan use varied widely from 48.7% to 0% across the participating centres. Factors independently associated with tolvaptan use were diabetes, poor medical adherence, oedema, pleural effusion, hyponatraemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 , moderate/severe tricuspid regurgitation, dobutamine infusion within 24 h, and additional inotropes infusion beyond 24 h after admission. The mortality rate at 90 days after admission was significantly higher in the tolvaptan use group than in the no tolvaptan use group (14.3% vs. 8.6%, P = 0.049). However, after adjustment, the excess mortality risk of tolvaptan use relative to no tolvaptan use was no longer significant (hazard ratio = 1.53, 95% confidence interval = 0.77-3.02, P = 0.22). Patients with tolvaptan use had a longer hospital stay [median (interquartile range): 22 (15-34) days vs. 15 (11-21) days, P < 0.0001] and a higher prevalence of worsening renal failure (47.0% vs. 31.8%, P < 0.0001) and worsening heart failure (24.8% vs. 14.4%, P < 0.0001) than those without. CONCLUSIONS: AHF patients with tolvaptan use had more congestive status with poorer in-hospital outcomes and higher short-term mortality than those without tolvaptan use. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) and https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

The Impact of Mitral Regurgitation on Long-Term Outcomes in Acute Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

It is important to clarify the precise impact of mitral regurgitation (MR) on long-term outcomes in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). In the Coronary Revascularization Demonstrating Outcome study in Kyoto Acute Myocardial Infarction (CREDO-Kyoto AMI) Registry Wave-2, the study population consisted of 5,266 patients with AMI who underwent PCI. The clinical outcomes of all-cause death, cardiovascular death, and hospitalization for heart failure (HF) were compared according to the severity of MR. Mild and moderate/severe MR were identified in 2,112 (40%) and 531 patients (10%), respectively. Patients with greater severity of MR were more likely to be old, had more co-morbidities, and more often presented with large myocardial infarction with HF. During median follow-up duration of 5.6 (interquartile range: 4.2 to 6.6) years, as the MR severity increased from no, mild, to moderate/severe MR, the cumulative 5-year incidences of all-cause death, cardiovascular death and hospitalization for HF incrementally increased ([15.3%, 19.6%, 33.3%], [8.9%, 11.7%, 21.0%] and [5.9%, 12.4%, 23.9%], respectively, P for all<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, however, mild and moderate/severe MR were not independently associated with the higher risks for all-cause death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]:1.05 [0.92 to 1.19], p = 0.51, and 1.10 [0.92 to 1.32], p = 0.28) and cardiovascular death (1.01 [0.85 to 1.21], p = 0.89, and 0.93 [0.73 to 1.18], p = 0.54) as compared with no MR. Both mild and moderate/severe MR were independently associated with the higher risks for hospitalization for HF (1.73 [1.42 to 2.11], p <0.001, and 2.23 [1.73 to 2.87], p <0.001). In a large population of patients with AMI who underwent PCI, MR was not independently associated with higher long-term mortality risk but was independently associated with higher risk for hospitalization for HF.

Weight loss during follow-up in patients with acute heart failure: From the KCHF registry.

BACKGROUNDS: The prognostic implication of weight loss after discharge from acute heart failure (AHF) remains unclear. We sought to investigate the association of weight loss between discharge and 6-month visit with subsequent clinical outcomes in patients with AHF. METHODS: We analyzed 686 patients with AHF in the prospective longitudinal follow-up study derived from the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, and divided them into 2 groups based on the weight loss at 6-month index visit. We defined the weight loss as ≥ 5% decrease in body weight from discharge to 6-month index visit. RESULTS: There were 90 patients (13.1%) with a weight loss at 6-month visit. Patients in the weight loss group compared with those in the no weight loss group had higher body weight at discharge and lower body weight at 6-mont visit. Patients in the weight loss group had a lower systolic blood pressure, higher brain-type natriuretic peptide, lower serum albumin, lower hemoglobin, higher prevalence of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction at 6-month visit, and a lower prescription rate of inhibitors of renin-angiotensin system than those in the no weight loss group. The cumulative 6-month incidence of all-cause death was significantly higher in the weight loss group than in the no weight loss group (14.2% and 4.3%, log-rank P<0.001). The excess adjusted risk of the weight loss group relative to the no weight loss group remained significant for all-cause death (HR 2.39, 95%CI 1.01-5.65, P = 0.048). CONCLUSION: Body weight loss of ≥5% at 6-month visit after discharge was associated with subsequent all-cause death in patients with AHF.

Association between changes in loop diuretic dose and outcomes in acute heart failure.

AIMS: Little is known about the association between the starting of or dose changes in loop diuretics during acute heart failure (AHF) hospitalization and post-discharge outcomes. We investigated the clinical impact of starting loop diuretics and changing the loop diuretics dose during hospitalization on post-discharge outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: From the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, 3665 consecutive patients hospitalized for HF and discharged alive were included in this study. We analysed 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive and 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission and were discharged alive. The primary outcome measure was all-cause death. Of the 1906 patients without loop diuretics on admission, 1366 (71.7%) patients started loop diuretics during the index AHF hospitalization. Starting loop diuretics was not associated with lower post-discharge mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.92, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-1.25]. Of the 1759 patients who received loop diuretics on admission, loop diuretic dose was decreased in 23.8%, unchanged in 44.6%, and increased in 31.6% of the patients. Changes in the dose at discharge compared with no change in dose were not associated with lower risk of post-discharge mortality (decrease relative to no change: adjusted HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.76-1.28; increase relative to no change: adjusted HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.78-1.27). Compared with no loop diuretics at discharge, a loop diuretics dose of ≥80 mg at discharge was associated with higher post-discharge mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with AHF, we found no association between the starting of loop diuretics and post-discharge outcomes and between dose changes and post-discharge outcomes.

Tricuspid regurgitation in elderly patients with acute heart failure: insights from the KCHF registry.

AIMS: Several studies demonstrated that tricuspid regurgitation (TR) is associated with poor clinical outcomes. However, data on patients with TR who experienced acute heart failure (AHF) remains scarce. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association between TR and clinical outcomes in patients admitted with AHF, using a large-scale Japanese AHF registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: The current study population consisted of 3735 hospitalized patients due to AHF in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure (KCHF) registry. TR grades were assessed according to the routine clinical practice at each participating centre. We compared the baseline characteristics and outcomes according to the severity of TR. The primary outcome was all-cause death. The secondary outcome was hospitalization for heart failure (HF). The median age of the entire study population was 80 (interquartile range: 72-86) years. One thousand two hundred five patients (32.3%) had no TR, while mild, moderate, and severe TR was found in 1537 patients (41.2%), 776 patients (20.8%), and 217 patients (5.8%), respectively. Pulmonary hypertension, significant mitral regurgitation, and atrial fibrillation/flutter were strongly associated with the development of moderate/severe of TR, while left ventricular ejection fraction <50% was inversely associated with it. Among 993 patients with moderate/severe TR, the number of patients who underwent surgical intervention for TR within 1 year was only 13 (1.3%). The median follow-up duration was 475 (interquartile range: 365-653) days with 94.0% follow-up at 1 year. As the TR severity increased, the cumulative 1 year incidence of all-cause death and HF admission proportionally increased ([14.8%, 20.3%, 23.4%, 27.0%] and [18.9%, 23.0%, 28.5%, 28.4%] in no, mild, moderate, and severe TR, respectively). Compared with no TR, the adjusted risks of patients with mild, moderate, and severe TR were significant for all-cause death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.20 [1.00-1.43], P = 0.0498, 1.32 [1.07-1.62], P = 0.009, and 1.35 [1.00-1.83], P = 0.049, respectively), while those were not significant for hospitalization for HF (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.16 [0.97-1.38], P = 0.10, 1.19 [0.96-1.46], P = 0.11, and 1.20 [0.87-1.65], P = 0.27, respectively). The higher adjusted HRs of all the TR grades relative to no TR were significant for all-cause death in patients aged <80 years, but not in patients aged ≥80 years with significant interaction. CONCLUSIONS: In a large Japanese AHF population, the grades of TR could successfully stratify the risk of all-cause death. However, the association of TR with mortality was only modest and attenuated in patients aged 80 or more. Further research is warranted to evaluate how to follow up and manage TR in this elderly population.

Rationale and study design of the GOREISAN for heart failure (GOREISAN-HF) trial: A randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The decongestion strategy using loop diuretics is essential for improving signs and symptoms of heart failure (HF). However, chronic use of loop diuretics in HF has been linked to worsening renal function and adverse clinical outcomes in a dose-dependent manner. Goreisan, a traditional Japanese herbal medicine, has a long history of use in Japan for regulating body fluid homeostasis and has been recognized as causing less adverse outcomes such as dehydration in contrast to loop diuretics in clinical practice. Therefore, we designed the GOREISAN-HF trial to evaluate the long-term effects of a new decongestion strategy adding Goreisan to usual care in patients with HF and volume overload. METHODS: The GOREISAN-HF trial is an investigator-initiated, multicenter, pragmatic, randomized, comparative effectiveness trial in which we will enroll 2,192 patients hospitalized for HF at 68 hospitals in Japan. All study participants will be randomly assigned to either a decongestion strategy that adds Goreisan at a dose of 7.5 g daily on top of usual care or usual care alone. Investigators have the flexibility to change the existing diuretic regimen in both groups. The primary end point is the improvement rate of cardiac edema at 12-month follow-up, and the co-primary end point is a composite of all-cause death or hospitalization up to the end of the planned follow-up period. Secondary end points include longitudinal changes in patient-reported outcomes, loop diuretics dose, and renal function. CONCLUSIONS: The GOREISAN-HF is the first large-scale randomized pragmatic trial to assess the efficacy and safety of a new congestion control strategy adding Goreisan to usual care in patients with HF and volume overload. REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04691700.

Prognostic Value of the Severity of Clinical Congestion in Patients Hospitalized for Decompensated Heart Failure: Findings From the Japanese KCHF Registry.

BACKGROUND: Congestion is a leading cause of hospitalization and a major therapeutic target in patients with heart failure (HF). Clinical practice in Japan is characterized by a long hospital stay, which facilitates more extensive decongestion during hospitalization. We herein examined the time course and prognostic impact of clinical congestion in a large contemporary Japanese cohort of HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Peripheral edema, jugular venous pressure, and orthopnea were graded on a standardized 4-point scale (0-3) in 3787 hospitalized patients in a Japanese cohort of HF. Composite Congestion Scores (CCS) on admission and at discharge were calculated by summing individual scores. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization. The median admission CCS was 4 (interquartile range, 3-6). Overall, 255 patients died during the median hospitalization length of 16 days, and 1395 died or were hospitalized for HF over a median postdischarge follow-up of 396 days. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome increased at higher tertiles of congestion on admission (32.5%, 39.3%, and 41.0% in the mild [CCS ≤3], moderate [CCS = 4 or 5], and severe [CCS ≥6] congestion groups, respectively, log-rank P < .001). The adjusted hazard ratios of moderate and severe congestion relative to mild congestion were 1.205 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.065-1.365; P = .003) and 1.247 (95% CI, 1.103-1.410; P < .001), respectively. Among 3445 patients discharged alive, 85% had CCS of 0 (complete decongestion) and 15% had a CCS of 1 or more (residual congestion) at discharge. Although residual congestion predicted a risk of postdischarge death or HF hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.314 [1.145-1.509]; P < .001), the admission CCS correlated with the risk of postdischarge death or HF hospitalization, even in the complete decongestion group. No correlation was observed for postdischarge death or HF hospitalization between residual congestion at discharge and admission CCS (P for the interaction = .316). CONCLUSIONS: In total, 85% of patients were discharged with complete decongestion in Japanese clinical practice. Clinical congestion, on admission and at discharge, was of prognostic value. The severity of congestion on admission was predictive of adverse outcomes, even in the absence of residual congestion. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02334891 (NCT02334891) https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi?recptno=R000017241 (UMIN000015238).

Prognostic implications of post-discharge hemodynamic congestion assessed by peripheral venous pressure among patients discharged from acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Congestion is a major cause of hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Peripheral venous pressure (PVP) strongly correlates with right atrial pressure. We recently reported that high PVP at discharge portends a poor prognosis in patients hospitalized for HF. In the same population, we aimed to analyze changes in PVP after discharge and to evaluate prognostic implications of post-discharge PVP. METHODS: PVP was measured at the forearm vein of 163 patients in the 1-month post-discharge follow-up visit. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death or re-hospitalization for HF after the 1-month follow-up visit up to 1 year after discharge. RESULTS: Post-discharge PVP correlated with jugular venous pressure, the inferior vena cava diameter, and brain-type natriuretic peptide levels. The cumulative incidence of the primary outcome event was significantly higher in patients with PVP above the median (6 mmHg) than in those with median PVP or lower (39.8% versus 16.9%, Log-rank P = 0.04). Age- and sex-adjusted risk of PVP per 1 mmHg for the primary outcome measure was significant (hazard ratio: 1.12 [95% confidence interval 1.03-1.21]). 35% of patients who had PVP ≤6 mmHg at discharge had PVP >6 mmHg at the 1-month follow-up. PVP significantly decreased from discharge to 1-month follow-up in patients without the primary outcome event (from 6 [4-10] to 6 [4-8] mmHg, P=0.01), but remained high in those with the primary outcome event (from 8 [5-11] to 7 [5-10.5] mmHg, P = 0.9). CONCLUSIONS: PVP measurements during the early post-discharge period may be useful to identify high risk patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UMIN000034279.

Relationship between atrial fibrillation and a liver fibrogenesis marker in patients with acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Hemodynamic disturbance in heart failure (HF) induces extra-cardiac organ injury. Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in patients with HF. The relationship between AF and organ injury in HF remains unclear. We investigated the relationship between AF and the liver fibrosis marker, type IV collagen 7S (P4NP 7S) in patients with HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: From a pooled dataset of 3 observational cohorts of hospitalized HF, 720 patients in whom P4NP 7S was measured before discharge were included. Median P4NP 7S were 5.1, 5.3, and 6.2 ng/mL in the sinus rhythm (SR) (n = 368), paroxysmal AF (n = 67), and persistent AF (n = 285) groups, respectively (P < 0.001). In the multiple linear regression analysis, the significant association with P4NP 7S was found for persistent AF (P < 0.001). The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary composite endpoint of cardiac death and HF hospitalization were 27.6, 24.1, and 34.5% in the SR, paroxysmal AF, and persistent AF groups, respectively (Log-rank P = 0.07) and 25.3 and 34.5% in the low (below median) and high P4NP 7S groups, respectively (Log-rank P = 0.005). The adjusted risks of persistent AF versus SR and high P4NP 7S versus low P4NP 7S for the primary endpoint were 1.38 (95% confidence interval 1.02-1.89) and 1.52 (1.14-2.03), respectively. When patients were divided based on a combination of AF and P4NP 7S, concomitant persistent AF and high P4NP 7S portended a dismal prognosis. CONCLUSION: AF is associated with an increase in the liver fibrosis marker. Co-presence of persistent AF and P4NP 7S may portend adverse clinical outcomes.

A comparison between hospital follow-up and collaborative follow-up in patients with acute heart failure.

AIMS: There are no previous studies focusing on collaborative follow-ups between hospitals and clinics for patients discharged after acute heart failure (AHF) in Japan. The purpose of this study was to determine the status of collaboration between hospitals and clinics for patients with AHF in Japan and to compare patient characteristics and clinical outcomes using a large Japanese observational database. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 4056 consecutive patients hospitalized for AHF in the Kyoto Congestive Heart Failure registry, we analysed 2862 patients discharged to go home, who were divided into 1674 patients (58.5%) followed up at hospitals with index hospitalization (hospital follow-up group) and 1188 (41.5%) followed up in a collaborative fashion with clinics or other general hospitals (collaborative follow-up group). The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death or heart failure (HF) hospitalization within 1 year after discharge. Previous hospitalization for HF and length of hospital stay longer than 15 days were associated with hospital follow-up. Conversely, ≥80 years of age, hypertension, and cognitive dysfunction were associated with collaborative follow-up. The cumulative 1-year incidence of the primary outcome, all cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between the hospital and collaborative follow-up groups (31.6% vs. 29.6%, P = 0.51, 13.1% vs, 13.9%, P = 0.35, 8.4% vs. 8.2%, P = 0.96). Even after adjusting for confounders, the difference in risk for patients in the hospital follow-up group relative to those in the collaborative follow-up group remained insignificant for the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.97-1.27, P = 0.14, HR: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.91-1.33, P = 0.33, HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.87-1.05, P = 0.33). The cumulative 1-year incidence of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (25.5% vs. 21.3%, P = 0.02). The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up group (HR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.01-1.39, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: In patients hospitalized for AHF, 41.5% received collaborative follow-up after discharge. The risk of HF hospitalization was higher in the hospital follow-up group than in the collaborative follow-up, although risk of the primary outcome, all-cause death, and cardiovascular death were similar between groups.