Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict birth weight: individual participant data meta-analysis.

Objective: To predict birth weight at various potential gestational ages of delivery based on data routinely available at the first antenatal visit. Design: Individual participant data meta-analysis. Data sources: Individual participant data of four cohorts (237 228 pregnancies) from the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) network dataset. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies: Studies in the IPPIC network were identified by searching major databases for studies reporting risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as pre-eclampsia, fetal growth restriction, and stillbirth, from database inception to August 2019. Data of four IPPIC cohorts (237 228 pregnancies) from the US (National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, 2018; 233 483 pregnancies), UK (Allen et al, 2017; 1045 pregnancies), Norway (STORK Groruddalen research programme, 2010; 823 pregnancies), and Australia (Rumbold et al, 2006; 1877 pregnancies) were included in the development of the model. Results: The IPPIC birth weight model was developed with random intercept regression models with backward elimination for variable selection. Internal-external cross validation was performed to assess the study specific and pooled performance of the model, reported as calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large, and observed versus expected average birth weight ratio. Meta-analysis showed that the apparent performance of the model had good calibration (calibration slope 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88 to 1.10; calibration-in-the-large 44.5 g, -18.4 to 107.3) with an observed versus expected average birth weight ratio of 1.02 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.07). The proportion of variation in birth weight explained by the model (R2) was 46.9% (range 32.7-56.1% in each cohort). On internal-external cross validation, the model showed good calibration and predictive performance when validated in three cohorts with a calibration slope of 0.90 (Allen cohort), 1.04 (STORK Groruddalen cohort), and 1.07 (Rumbold cohort), calibration-in-the-large of -22.3 g (Allen cohort), -33.42 (Rumbold cohort), and 86.4 g (STORK Groruddalen cohort), and observed versus expected ratio of 0.99 (Rumbold cohort), 1.00 (Allen cohort), and 1.03 (STORK Groruddalen cohort); respective pooled estimates were 1.00 (95% CI 0.78 to 1.23; calibration slope), 9.7 g (-154.3 to 173.8; calibration-in-the-large), and 1.00 (0.94 to 1.07; observed v expected ratio). The model predictions were more accurate (smaller mean square error) in the lower end of predicted birth weight, which is important in informing clinical decision making. Conclusions: The IPPIC birth weight model allowed birth weight predictions for a range of possible gestational ages. The model explained about 50% of individual variation in birth weights, was well calibrated (especially in babies at high risk of fetal growth restriction and its complications), and showed promising performance in four different populations included in the individual participant data meta-analysis. Further research to examine the generalisability of performance in other countries, settings, and subgroups is required. Trial registration: PROSPERO CRD42019135045.

Therapeutic effect of dose-dense paclitaxel plus carboplatin with or without bevacizumab for Japanese patients with epithelial ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Evidence regarding chemosensitivity to different therapeutic regimens in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) remains limited. This study aimed to investigate EOC implementation in daily clinical practice and reveal favorable regimens for EOC among Japanese patients. METHODS: We retrospectively collected clinical data of patients newly diagnosed with EOC from 2012 to 2021 at our affiliated institutions. We evaluated overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of conventional paclitaxel plus carboplatin (TC) vs. dose-dense TC (ddTC) according to the eligibility of GOG262 and JGOG3016 and those with bevacizumab (BEV) vs. without BEV based on GOG218. Further, we evaluated OS and PFS of ddTC and ddTC + BEV to TC + BEV among patients with stage III/IV. RESULTS: The ddTC group (n = 402) demonstrated longer PFS and OS than the TC group (n = 165) (adjusted hazard ratios [aHRs] [95% confidential intervals (CIs)]: 0.69 [0.55-0.88] and 0.67 [0.50-0.90], respectively). The group with BEV (n = 158) demonstrated a longer PFS than those without BEV (n = 296) (0.74 [0.57-0.95]), but not for OS (0.84 [0.60-1.17]). The ddTC and ddTC + BEV groups (n = 259 and 117) demonstrated no statistically significant differences in PFS and OS than the TC + BEV group (n = 75) (1.09 [0.79-1.50] and 0.74 [0.52-1.08] for PFS and 0.89 [0.59-1.34] and 0.73 [0.50-1.05] for OS, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our study may indicate ddTC, BEV, and their combination regimen as the promising first-line chemotherapy option among Japanese patients with advanced EOC.

Peer Learning Has Double Effects in Clinical Research Education: A Qualitative Study.

Background: Peer learning has been recognized for its effectiveness in health professional education. However, its effects on clinical research education are not clear and were explored qualitatively in this study. Methods: The peer-learning method was implemented in a clinical research education seminar for early-career physicians at a children's and mothers' hospital in 2019. We conducted semistructured interviews with participants about peer-learning experience and qualitatively analyzed verbatim transcripts using Engeström's "activity theory" framework. Results: From framework analysis, learning processes were extracted mainly in four domains, namely, (a) instrument and its usage: research design and its match with research question, (b) outcome: research result, (c) community: seminar, and (d) division of labor: roles of participants and staff. Conclusions: In this report of a peer-learning trial in postgraduate clinical research education, the following two pathways of peer-learning effects were abstracted. The indirect pathway was the presentations by experienced participants providing concrete examples of research processes. The direct pathway was the questions from experienced participants to beginners about specific and concrete questions. There were also two points to consider in peer learning in clinical research education: gaps in premise knowledge and beginners' frustration about expected outcomes. We believe that these extracted pathways and points imply the significance and considerations for continuing the peer-learning trial in clinical research education. Future tasks are to promote clinical research education with a view to the learning effects, not only on individuals, but also on groups.

Annual numbers of diagnoses and medical expenses for obstetric diseases in Japan: A report from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims.

AIM: The present study aimed to estimate the total numbers of obstetric diseases diagnosed, total amounts of medical expenses claimed for obstetric diseases, their averages per livebirth, and yearly trends in Japan. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of the National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Japan (NDB) (data from 2015 to 2019). The target population was women of reproductive age (15-49 years old) with diseases in pregnancy, childbirth, and the puerperium, defined by having O codes according to the International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision. We calculated the numbers of obstetric diseases diagnosed, amounts of medical expenses claimed for obstetric diseases marked with the "main injury/disease decision flag," and the totals divided by the annual numbers of livebirths, by year and women's age group. RESULTS: From 2015 to 2019, both the numbers of obstetric diseases diagnosed and amounts of medical expenses claimed for obstetric diseases per livebirth were on an upward trend, whereas the total numbers of obstetric diseases diagnosed were decreased. Women in advanced age groups had a higher number of diagnoses and a higher amount of medical expenses for obstetric diseases per livebirth. "Preterm labour without delivery" had the highest amounts of medical expenses claimed for and the second highest numbers of diagnoses throughout the study period. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that pregnant women in Japan would have an increasing number of obstetric complications and necessary medical expenses year by year. Further study is warranted to elucidate these trends and identify possible mitigation measures.

Predicting postoperative delirium after cardiovascular surgeries from preoperative portable electroencephalography oscillations.

Introduction: Postoperative delirium (POD) is common and life-threatening, however, with intensive interventions, a potentially preventable clinical syndrome. Although electroencephalography (EEG) is a promising biomarker of delirium, standard 20-leads EEG holds difficulties for screening usage in clinical practice. Objective: We aimed to develop an accurate algorithm to predict POD using EEG data obtained from portable device. Methods: We recruited 128 patients who underwent scheduled cardiovascular surgery. Cognitive function assessments were conducted, and portable EEG recordings were obtained prior to surgery. Results: Among the patients, 47 (36.7%) patients with POD were identified and they did not significantly differ from patients without POD in sex ratio, age, cognitive function, or treatment duration of intensive care unit. However, significant differences were observed in the preoperative EEG power spectrum densities at various frequencies, especially gamma activity, between patients with and without POD. POD was successfully predicted using preoperative EEG data with a machine learning algorithm, yielding accuracy of 86% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.93. Discussion: This study provides new insights into the objective and biological vulnerability to delirium. The developed algorithm can be applied in general hospitals without advanced equipment and expertise, thereby enabling the reduction of POD occurrences with intensive interventions for high-risk patients.

Development of postoperative delirium prediction models in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery using machine learning algorithms.

Associations between delirium and postoperative adverse events in cardiovascular surgery have been reported and the preoperative identification of high-risk patients of delirium is needed to implement focused interventions. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models to predict post-cardiovascular surgery delirium. Patients aged ≥ 40 years who underwent cardiovascular surgery at a single hospital were prospectively enrolled. Preoperative and intraoperative factors were assessed. Each patient was evaluated for postoperative delirium 7 days after surgery. We developed machine learning models using the Bernoulli naive Bayes, Support vector machine, Random forest, Extra-trees, and XGBoost algorithms. Stratified fivefold cross-validation was performed for each developed model. Of the 87 patients, 24 (27.6%) developed postoperative delirium. Age, use of psychotropic drugs, cognitive function (Mini-Cog < 4), index of activities of daily living (Barthel Index < 100), history of stroke or cerebral hemorrhage, and eGFR (estimated glomerular filtration rate) < 60 were selected to develop delirium prediction models. The Extra-trees model had the best area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.76 [standard deviation 0.11]; sensitivity: 0.63; specificity: 0.78). XGBoost showed the highest sensitivity (AUROC, 0.75 [0.07]; sensitivity: 0.67; specificity: 0.79). Machine learning algorithms could predict post-cardiovascular delirium using preoperative data.Trial registration: UMIN-CTR (ID; UMIN000049390).

Spatial factors for COVID-19 associated community deaths in an urban area of Lusaka, Zambia: an observational study.

We retrospectively analyzed spatial factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated community deaths i.e., brought-in-dead (BID) in Lusaka, Zambia, between March and July 2020. A total of 127 cases of BID with geocoordinate data of their houses were identified during the study period. Median interquartile range (IQR) of the age of these cases was 49 (34-70) years old, and 47 cases (37.0%) were elderly individuals over 60 years old. Seventy-five cases (75%) of BID were identified in July 2020, when the total number of cases and deaths was largest in Zambia. Among those whose information regarding their underlying medical condition was available, hypertension was most common (22.9%, 8/35). Among Lusaka's 94 townships, the numbers (median, IQR) of cases were significantly larger in those characterized as unplanned residential areas compared to planned areas (1.0, 0.0-4.0 vs 0.0, 0.0-1.0; p=0.030). The proportion of individuals who require more than 30 minutes to obtain water was correlated with a larger number of BID cases per 105 population in each township (rho=0.28, p=0.006). The number of BID cases was larger in unplanned residential areas, which highlighted the importance of targeted public health interventions specifically to those areas to reduce the total number of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka. Brought-in-dead surveillance might be beneficial in monitoring epidemic conditions of COVID-19 in such high-risk areas. Furthermore, inadequate access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) might be associated with such distinct geographical distributions of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka, Zambia.

Spatial factors for COVID-19 associated community deaths in an urban area of Lusaka, Zambia: an observational study

We retrospectively analyzed spatial factors for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-associated community deaths i.e., brought-in-dead (BID) in Lusaka, Zambia, between March and July 2020. A total of 127 cases of BID with geocoordinate data of their houses were identified during the study period. Median interquartile range (IQR) of the age of these cases was 49 (34-70) years old, and 47 cases (37.0%) were elderly individuals over 60 years old. Seventy-five cases (75%) of BID were identified in July 2020, when the total number of cases and deaths was largest in Zambia. Among those whose information regarding their underlying medical condition was available, hypertension was most common (22.9%, 8/35). Among Lusaka's 94 townships, the numbers (median, IQR) of cases were significantly larger in those characterized as unplanned residential areas compared to planned areas (1.0, 0.0-4.0 vs 0.0, 0.0-1.0; p=0.030). The proportion of individuals who require more than 30 minutes to obtain water was correlated with a larger number of BID cases per 105 population in each township (rho=0.28, p=0.006). The number of BID cases was larger in unplanned residential areas, which highlighted the importance of targeted public health interventions specifically to those areas to reduce the total number of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka. Brought-in-dead surveillance might be beneficial in monitoring epidemic conditions of COVID-19 in such high-risk areas. Furthermore, inadequate access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) might be associated with such distinct geographical distributions of COVID-19 associated community deaths in Lusaka, Zambia.

Antenatal screening timeline and cutoff scores of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale for predicting postpartum depressive symptoms in healthy women: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It is worthwhile to identify women at risk of developing postpartum depression during pregnancy. This study aimed to determine the optimal time and cutoff score for antenatal screening for prediction of postpartum depressive symptoms (PDS) using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and to identify risk factors for PDS. METHODS: The target population was healthy pregnant women receiving antenatal care at a university hospital in Tokyo, Japan. During the first, second, and third trimesters, 3-4 days postpartum, and one month postpartum, they were asked to take the Japanese version of the EPDS questionnaire. The primary outcome of the study was PDS, defined as an EPDS score ≥ 9 at one month postpartum. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of EPDS scores at each antenatal screening time were calculated. RESULTS: From 139 pregnant women, 129 were successfully followed up throughout the study. The number of women with an EPDS score ≥ 9 during the first, second, and third trimesters, 3-4 days postpartum, and one month postpartum were 6/126 (4.8%), 9/124 (7.3%), 5/117 (4.3%), 17/123 (13.8%), and 15/123 (12.2%), respectively. Screening during the second trimester had the highest AUC to predict PDS (0.89) among antenatal screenings. The optimal EPDS cutoff score during the second trimester was 4/5 (sensitivity: 85.7%; specificity: 77.1%; PPV: 33.3%; NPV: 97.6%). An EPDS score ≥ 5 during the second trimester (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 15.9; 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 3.2-78.1) and a family history of mental illness (aOR: 4.5; 95%CI: 1.2-17.5) were significantly associated with PDS. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that the EPDS score at the second trimester with the cutoff value of 4/5 may be adequate for initial screening for prediction of PDS. Women with an EPDS score ≥ 5 at the second trimester require more elaborate follow-up.

Lack of catch-up in weight gain may intermediate between pregnancies with hyperemesis gravidarum and reduced fetal growth: the Japan Environment and Children's Study.

BACKGROUND: Women with nausea and vomiting of pregnancy (NVP) have higher birth weight infants, while those with hyperemesis gravidarum, a severe manifestation of NVP, have lower birth weight infants. We aimed to investigate the associations between maternal weight loss (a consequence of hyperemesis gravidarum), NVP, and infant birth weight. METHODS: This study was a secondary analysis of a nationwide birth cohort in Japan. Singleton pregnancies delivered at 28-41 weeks of gestation were included in the analysis. Women were categorized based on their weight change in the 1st trimester (as a proportion to their pre-pregnancy weight: > + 3%, > 0 to + 3%, > -3 to 0%, > -5 to -3%, ≤ -5%) and severity of NVP (no nausea, only nausea, vomiting but able to eat, vomiting and unable to eat). The effects of weight change and severity of NVP on infant birth weight and small for gestational age (SGA) were assessed using regression models. We further examined how these effects could be modified by maternal weight gain up to the 2nd trimester. RESULTS: Among 91,313 women, 5,196 (5.7%) lost ≥ 5% of their pre-pregnancy weight and 9,983 (10.9%) experienced vomiting and were unable to eat in the 1st trimester. Women with weight loss ≥ 5% in the 1st trimester had infants 66 (95% CI: 53, 78) g lighter and higher odds of SGA (aOR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.14, 1.47) than women who gained > 3% during the same period. However, when adjusting for weight gain up to the 2nd trimester, women with weight loss ≥ 5% in the 1st trimester had infants 150 (95% CI: 135, 165) g heavier and lower odds of SGA (aOR: 0.39; 95% CI: 0.33, 0.46) than those who gained > 3% during the same period. In contrast, women with more severe NVP tended to have infants with larger birth weight and lower odds of SGA compared to women without NVP. These trends were strengthened when adjusting for weight gain up to the 2nd trimester. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests the possibility that reduced fetal growth in pregnancies with hyperemesis gravidarum may be caused by the lack of catch-up in gestational weight gain up to the 2nd trimester.

Differentiating early clinical features of Panayiotopoulos syndrome from acute encephalopathy.

BACKGROUND: Panayiotopoulos syndrome (PS) is a common benign epilepsy in childhood, characterized by predominantly autonomic symptoms such as emesis, pallor, and seizures, which are often prolonged. In an emergency room (ER), particularly when unconsciousness is prolonged, differentiating PS from acute encephalopathy is challenging. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the differences in clinical features of patients with PS and acute encephalopathy who visited our ER. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 18 patients who were transferred to our ER because of status epilepticus later diagnosed as PS, and 30 patients with acute encephalopathy, between July 2012 and July 2017. We compared patient demographics, clinical characteristics, and treatment. RESULTS: Most patients (90%) with acute encephalopathy had convulsive seizures of greater than or equal to 15 min, whereas only three patients (17%) with PS had convulsive seizures of greater than or equal to 15 min (P < 0.001). In addition, seizures were treatable in all patients with PS with a small dose of midazolam (0.1 mg/kg), but all patients with acute encephalopathy required midazolam at 0.3 mg/kg or more (P < 0.001). More patients with PS had autonomic symptoms compared to those with acute encephalopathy (e.g., vomiting [78% vs. 3%, P < 0.001]). Non-convulsive status epilepticus was observed in 22% of PS patients, but not in any acute encephalopathy patients. In contrast, fever was observed in all patients with acute encephalopathy (100%), but less frequently in those with PS (11%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: PS was characterized by 1) convulsive seizures shorter than 15 min, 2) seizures treatable with small doses of midazolam, and 3) autonomic symptoms. PS could be differentiated from acute encephalopathy in the early stages of the syndrome.

Association Between Birth Weight and Risk of Pregnancy-Induced Hypertension and Gestational Diabetes in Japanese Women: JPHC-NEXT Study.

BACKGROUND: Although prevalence of low birth weight has increased in the last 3 decades in Japan, no studies in Japanese women have investigated whether birth weight is associated with the risk of pregnancy complications, such as pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). METHODS: We used data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation (JPHC-NEXT), a population-based cohort study in Japan that launched in 2011. In the main analysis, we included 46,365 women who had been pregnant at least once, for whom information on birth weight and events during their pregnancy was obtained using a self-administered questionnaire. Women were divided into five categories according to their birth weight, and the relationship between birth weight and risk of PIH and GDM was examined using multilevel logistic regression analyses with place of residence as a random effect. RESULTS: Compared to women born with birth weight of 3,000-3,999 grams, the risk of PIH was significantly higher among women born <1,500 grams (adjusted odd ratio [aOR] 1.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-2.21), 1,500-2,499 grams (aOR 1.16; 95% CI, 1.03-1.30), and 2,500-2,999 grams (aOR 1.13; 95% CI, 1.04-1.22). The risk of GDM was significantly higher among women born 1,500-2,499 grams (aOR 1.20; 95% CI, 1.02-1.42), albeit non-significant association among women in other birthweight categories. CONCLUSIONS: We observed an increased risk of PIH among women born with lower birth weight albeit non-significant increased risk of GDM among Japanese women.

Maternal blood count parameters of chronic inflammation by gestational age and their associations with risk of preterm delivery in the Japan Environment and Children's Study.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), are three reportedly predictive biomarkers that reflect subclinical chronic inflammatory burden. However, how these biomarkers change during pregnancy and its clinical utility among pregnant women have been rarely studied. Among 76,853 singleton pregnancies delivered at 28-41 weeks of gestation that were enrolled in the Japan Environment and Children's Study, we observed the distribution of maternal NLR, PLR, and LMR values from week 0 to week 36 using spline curves, as well as their predictive values for preterm delivery with and without hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, placental abruption and intrauterine growth restriction (collectively termed ischemic placental disease due to their shared pathological and pathophysiological features) for measurements at 8-11 weeks, 12-17 weeks, and 18-21 weeks. NLR and PLR increased, whereas LMR decreased, with increasing gestation. High LMR and low NLR observed at 18-21 weeks, but not at earlier gestations, were associated with higher risk of preterm delivery with IPD (odds ratio 1.80 [95% CI 1.02, 3.19] per log[LMR]; odds ratio 0.49 [95% CI 0.29, 0.82] per log[NLR]). All parameters were not predictive of preterm delivery without IPD. We provide a robust reference curve for maternal blood count parameters NLR, PLR, and LMR by gestational week.

Validation and development of models using clinical, biochemical and ultrasound markers for predicting pre-eclampsia: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk is needed to plan management. OBJECTIVES: To assess the performance of existing pre-eclampsia prediction models and to develop and validate models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data meta-analysis. We also estimated the prognostic value of individual markers. DESIGN: This was an individual participant data meta-analysis of cohort studies. SETTING: Source data from secondary and tertiary care. PREDICTORS: We identified predictors from systematic reviews, and prioritised for importance in an international survey. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Early-onset (delivery at < 34 weeks' gestation), late-onset (delivery at ≥ 34 weeks' gestation) and any-onset pre-eclampsia. ANALYSIS: We externally validated existing prediction models in UK cohorts and reported their performance in terms of discrimination and calibration. We developed and validated 12 new models based on clinical characteristics, clinical characteristics and biochemical markers, and clinical characteristics and ultrasound markers in the first and second trimesters. We summarised the data set-specific performance of each model using a random-effects meta-analysis. Discrimination was considered promising for C-statistics of ≥ 0.7, and calibration was considered good if the slope was near 1 and calibration-in-the-large was near 0. Heterogeneity was quantified using I2 and τ2. A decision curve analysis was undertaken to determine the clinical utility (net benefit) of the models. We reported the unadjusted prognostic value of individual predictors for pre-eclampsia as odds ratios with 95% confidence and prediction intervals. RESULTS: The International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network comprised 78 studies (3,570,993 singleton pregnancies) identified from systematic reviews of tests to predict pre-eclampsia. Twenty-four of the 131 published prediction models could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Summary C-statistics were between 0.6 and 0.7 for most models, and calibration was generally poor owing to large between-study heterogeneity, suggesting model overfitting. The clinical utility of the models varied between showing net harm to showing minimal or no net benefit. The average discrimination for IPPIC models ranged between 0.68 and 0.83. This was highest for the second-trimester clinical characteristics and biochemical markers model to predict early-onset pre-eclampsia, and lowest for the first-trimester clinical characteristics models to predict any pre-eclampsia. Calibration performance was heterogeneous across studies. Net benefit was observed for International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications first and second-trimester clinical characteristics and clinical characteristics and biochemical markers models predicting any pre-eclampsia, when validated in singleton nulliparous women managed in the UK NHS. History of hypertension, parity, smoking, mode of conception, placental growth factor and uterine artery pulsatility index had the strongest unadjusted associations with pre-eclampsia. LIMITATIONS: Variations in study population characteristics, type of predictors reported, too few events in some validation cohorts and the type of measurements contributed to heterogeneity in performance of the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models. Some published models were not validated because model predictors were unavailable in the individual participant data. CONCLUSION: For models that could be validated, predictive performance was generally poor across data sets. Although the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models show good predictive performance on average, and in the singleton nulliparous population, heterogeneity in calibration performance is likely across settings. FUTURE WORK: Recalibration of model parameters within populations may improve calibration performance. Additional strong predictors need to be identified to improve model performance and consistency. Validation, including examination of calibration heterogeneity, is required for the models we could not validate. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015029349. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 72. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?: Pre-eclampsia, a condition in pregnancy that results in raised blood pressure and protein in the urine, is a major cause of complications for the mother and baby. WHAT IS NEEDED?: A way of accurately identifying women at high risk of pre-eclampsia to allow clinicians to start preventative interventions such as administering aspirin or frequently monitoring women during pregnancy. WHERE ARE THE RESEARCH GAPS?: Although over 100 tools (models) have been reported worldwide to predict pre-eclampsia, to date their performance in women managed in the UK NHS is unknown. WHAT DID WE PLAN TO DO?: We planned to comprehensively identify all published models that predict the risk of pre-eclampsia occurring at any time during pregnancy and to assess if this prediction is accurate in the UK population. If the existing models did not perform satisfactorily, we aimed to develop new prediction models. WHAT DID WE FIND?: We formed the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network, which provided data from a large number of studies (78 studies, 25 countries, 125 researchers, 3,570,993 singleton pregnancies). We were able to assess the performance of 24 out of the 131 models published to predict pre-eclampsia in 11 UK data sets. The models did not accurately predict the risk of pre-eclampsia across all UK data sets, and their performance varied within individual data sets. We developed new prediction models that showed promising performance on average across all data sets, but their ability to correctly identify women who develop pre-eclampsia varied between populations. The models were more clinically useful when used in the care of first-time mothers pregnant with one child, compared to a strategy of treating them all as if they were at high-risk of pre-eclampsia. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?: Before using the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models in various populations, they need to be adjusted for characteristics of the particular population and the setting of application.

Needs Assessment for Supports to Promote Pediatric Clinical Research Using an Online Survey of the Japanese Children's Hospitals Association.

INTRODUCTION: Infrastructure and the capacity to conduct clinical research in pediatrics have not been fully established in Japan. To elucidate the physicians' perspectives on clinical research, level of experience, existing barriers, and requests for support, we conducted a survey at 34 children's hospitals in Japan. METHODS: In January 2016, an online survey with 13 questions was sent to approximately 2000 physicians working in 34 pediatric hospitals belonging to the Japanese Association of Children's Hospitals and Related Institutions. RESULTS: Of the 360 respondents, 318 (88.3%) had presentations at academic conferences, and 261 (72.5%) had publications in academic journals, in the previous year. The most common study designs of clinical research conducted were case reports and case series. The most requested supports were for statistical analysis, followed by study design, grant application, and English-language editing. Younger physicians were more likely to prefer educational lectures (p < 0.001), whereas experienced physicians were more likely to request support for conducting statistical analysis (p = 0.002). Whereas physicians who had ever led a clinical trial requested support for the development of study protocol (p = .013), those without this experience preferred support for literature review (p = .002) and consultation services for study design (p = .027). CONCLUSIONS: The requests for supports were different, depending on the physicians' years after graduation and experience level in clinical research. In order to enhance clinical research in pediatrics, it is essential to provide appropriate types and levels of educational and support programs.

External validation of prognostic models predicting pre-eclampsia: individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk during pregnancy is required to plan management. Although there are many published prediction models for pre-eclampsia, few have been validated in external data. Our objective was to externally validate published prediction models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data (IPD) from UK studies, to evaluate whether any of the models can accurately predict the condition when used within the UK healthcare setting. METHODS: IPD from 11 UK cohort studies (217,415 pregnant women) within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) pre-eclampsia network contributed to external validation of published prediction models, identified by systematic review. Cohorts that measured all predictor variables in at least one of the identified models and reported pre-eclampsia as an outcome were included for validation. We reported the model predictive performance as discrimination (C-statistic), calibration (calibration plots, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large), and net benefit. Performance measures were estimated separately in each available study and then, where possible, combined across studies in a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Of 131 published models, 67 provided the full model equation and 24 could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Most of the models showed modest discrimination with summary C-statistics between 0.6 and 0.7. The calibration of the predicted compared to observed risk was generally poor for most models with observed calibration slopes less than 1, indicating that predictions were generally too extreme, although confidence intervals were wide. There was large between-study heterogeneity in each model's calibration-in-the-large, suggesting poor calibration of the predicted overall risk across populations. In a subset of models, the net benefit of using the models to inform clinical decisions appeared small and limited to probability thresholds between 5 and 7%. CONCLUSIONS: The evaluated models had modest predictive performance, with key limitations such as poor calibration (likely due to overfitting in the original development datasets), substantial heterogeneity, and small net benefit across settings. The evidence to support the use of these prediction models for pre-eclampsia in clinical decision-making is limited. Any models that we could not validate should be examined in terms of their predictive performance, net benefit, and heterogeneity across multiple UK settings before consideration for use in practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ID: CRD42015029349 .

Delivery mode and maternal and neonatal outcomes of combined spinal-epidural analgesia compared with no analgesia in spontaneous labor: A single-center observational study in Japan.

AIM: We aimed to assess the outcomes of combined spinal-epidural (CSE) analgesia compared with no analgesia in spontaneous labor. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of deliveries between 2008 and 2014 comparing two groups based on the use of CSE analgesia in both nulliparous and multiparous women. Adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were calculated using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Among 5247 (3334 nulliparous, 1913 multiparous) singleton deliveries, 3041 (2045, 996, respectively) patients received CSE analgesia and 2206 (1289, 917, respectively) had no analgesia. CSE analgesia was associated with increased risk of oxytocin augmentation (P < 0.01), prolonged duration of labor (P < 0.01), instrumental delivery (aOR, 3.35; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.69-4.19 for nulliparous and aOR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.32-3.53 for multiparous women), blood loss volume during vaginal delivery (P < 0.01), meconium-stained amniotic fluid (aOR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.02-1.51 and aOR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.01-1.93) and Apgar score less than 7 at 1 min (aOR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.28-2.74 and aOR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.35-5.61) in both nulliparous and multiparous women, respectively, and umbilical arterial blood gas pH less than 7.15 (aOR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.35-5.75) and umbilical arterial blood gas pH less than 7.10 (aOR, 3.69; 95% CI, 1.11-16.69) in multiparous women. There was no significant difference in incidence of cesarean delivery or Apgar score less than 7 at 5 min. CONCLUSION: We observed several increased risks in obstetric and neonatal outcomes among pregnant women who received CSE analgesia during labor. Preparations for these risks are needed when administering CSE analgesia during labor.

Positive airway pressure therapy for the treatment of central sleep apnoea associated with heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Ischaemic heart disease including heart failure is the most common cause of death in the world, and the incidence of the condition is rapidly increasing. Heart failure is characterised by symptoms such as fatigue and breathlessness during light activity, as well as disordered breathing during sleep. In particular, sleep disordered breathing (SDB), including central sleep apnoea (CSA) and obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA), is highly prevalent in people with chronic heart failure. A previous meta-analysis demonstrated that positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy dramatically increased the survival rate of people with heart failure who had CSA, and thus could contribute to improving the prognosis of these individuals. However, recent trials found that adaptive servo-ventilation (ASV) including PAP therapy had a higher risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality. A meta-analysis that included recent trials was therefore needed. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of positive airway pressure therapy for people with heart failure who experience central sleep apnoea. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science Core Collection on 7 February 2019 with no limitations on date, language, or publication status. We also searched two clinical trials registers in July 2019 and checked the reference lists of primary studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We excluded cross-over trials and included individually randomised controlled trials, reported as full-texts, those published as abstract only, and unpublished data. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted outcome data from the included studies. We double-checked that data had been entered correctly by comparing the data presented in the systematic review with study reports. We analysed dichotomous data as risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and continuous data as mean difference (MD) or standardised mean difference (SMD) with 95% CIs. Furthermore, we performed subgroup analysis in the ASV group or continuous PAP group separately. We used GRADEpro GDT software to assess the quality of evidence as it relates to those studies that contribute data to the meta-analyses for the prespecified outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: We included 16 randomised controlled trials involving a total of 2125 participants. The trials evaluated PAP therapy consisting of ASV or continuous PAP therapy for 1 to 31 months. Many trials included participants with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Only one trial included participants with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. We are uncertain about the effects of PAP therapy on all-cause mortality (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.54 to 1.21; participants = 1804; studies = 6; I2 = 47%; very low-quality evidence). We found moderate-quality evidence of no difference between PAP therapy and usual care on cardiac-related mortality (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.24; participants = 1775; studies = 5; I2 = 11%). We found low-quality evidence of no difference between PAP therapy and usual care on all-cause rehospitalisation (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.30; participants = 1533; studies = 5; I2 = 40%) and cardiac-related rehospitalisation (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.35; participants = 1533; studies = 5; I2 = 40%). In contrast, PAP therapy showed some indication of an improvement in quality of life scores assessed by all measurements (SMD -0.32, 95% CI -0.67 to 0.04; participants = 1617; studies = 6; I2 = 76%; low-quality evidence) and by the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure Questionnaire (MD -0.51, 95% CI -0.78 to -0.24; participants = 1458; studies = 4; I2 = 0%; low-quality evidence) compared with usual care. Death due to pneumonia (N = 1, 3% of PAP group); cardiac arrest (N = 18, 3% of PAP group); heart transplantation (N = 8, 1% of PAP group); cardiac worsening (N = 3, 9% of PAP group); deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism (N = 1, 3% of PAP group); and foot ulcer (N = 1, 3% of PAP group) occurred in the PAP therapy group, whereas cardiac arrest (N = 16, 2% of usual care group); heart transplantation (N = 12, 2% of usual care group); cardiac worsening (N = 5, 14% of usual care group); and duodenal ulcer (N = 1, 3% of usual care group) occurred in the usual care group across three trials. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The effect of PAP therapy on all-cause mortality was uncertain. In addition, although we found evidence that PAP therapy did not reduce the risk of cardiac-related mortality and rehospitalisation, there was some indication of an improvement in quality of life for heart failure patients with CSA. Furthermore, the evidence was insufficient to determine whether adverse events were more common with PAP than with usual care. These findings were limited by low- or very low-quality evidence. PAP therapy may be worth considering for individuals with heart failure to improve quality of life.

Complications and adverse outcomes in pregnancy and childbirth among women who conceived by assisted reproductive technologies: a nationwide birth cohort study of Japan environment and children's study.

BACKGROUND: Although pregnancies conceived by assisted reproductive technology (ART) have a higher risk of maternal/perinatal complications, the overall risk of adverse outcomes necessitating advanced obstetric care has not been closely examined. The present study aimed to assess and compare the risk of maternal/perinatal complications and adverse outcomes in pregnancy and childbirth conceived by ART with those conceived naturally. METHODS: This study was conducted as a part of the Japan environment and children's study (JECS), an ongoing nationwide birth cohort study in Japan. The risk of maternal/perinatal complications and adverse outcomes was assessed by mode of conception (natural conception, ovulation induction [OI] without ART, conventional in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer [IVF-ET], or intracytoplasmic sperm injection [ICSI]) using logistic regression and generalized estimating equations controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: The final dataset included women who conceived naturally (N = 90,506), by OI without ART (N = 3939), by conventional IVF-ET (N = 1476), and by ICSI (N = 1671). Compared with women who conceived naturally, those who conceived by conventional IVF-ET were at higher risk of placenta previa (adjusted OR 2.90 [95% CI 1.94, 4.34]), morbidly adherent placenta (6.85 [3.88, 12.13]), and pregnancy-induced hypertension (1.40 [1.10, 1.78]) whereas those who conceived by ICSI had a higher risk of placental abruption (2.16 [1.20, 3.88]) as well as placenta previa (2.01 [1.29, 3.13]) and morbidly adherent placenta (7.81 [4.56, 13.38]). Women who conceived by ART had a higher risk of blood transfusion (conventional IVF-ET: 3.85 [2.52, 5.88]; ICSI: 3.76 [2.49, 5.66]) and ICU admission (conventional IVF-ET: 2.58 [1.11, 6.01]; ICSI: 3.45 [1.68, 7.06]) even after controlling for potential confounders. Neonates conceived by ART had a higher risk of preterm birth (conventional IVF-ET: 1.42 [1.13, 1.78]; ICSI: 1.31 [1.05, 1.64]). CONCLUSIONS: Women who conceived by ART had a higher risk of maternal/perinatal complications necessitating advanced obstetric care. Obstetricians should be aware of the increased risk of adverse outcomes among this population.