Elemental Characterization of Ambient Particulate Matter for a Globally Distributed Monitoring Network: Methodology and Implications.

Global ground-level measurements of elements in ambient particulate matter (PM) can provide valuable information to understand the distribution of dust and trace elements, assess health impacts, and investigate emission sources. We use X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy to characterize the elemental composition of PM samples collected from 27 globally distributed sites in the Surface PARTiculate mAtter Network (SPARTAN) over 2019-2023. Consistent protocols are applied to collect all samples and analyze them at one central laboratory, which facilitates comparison across different sites. Multiple quality assurance measures are performed, including applying reference materials that resemble typical PM samples, acceptance testing, and routine quality control. Method detection limits and uncertainties are estimated. Concentrations of dust and trace element oxides (TEO) are determined from the elemental dataset. In addition to sites in arid regions, a moderately high mean dust concentration (6 µg/m3) in PM2.5 is also found in Dhaka (Bangladesh) along with a high average TEO level (6 µg/m3). High carcinogenic risk (>1 cancer case per 100000 adults) from airborne arsenic is observed in Dhaka (Bangladesh), Kanpur (India), and Hanoi (Vietnam). Industries of informal lead-acid battery and e-waste recycling as well as coal-fired brick kilns likely contribute to the elevated trace element concentrations found in Dhaka.

A machine learning model to estimate ambient PM2.5 concentrations in industrialized highveld region of South Africa.

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has been linked to a substantial disease burden globally, yet little has been done to estimate the population health risks of PM2.5 in South Africa due to the lack of high-resolution PM2.5 exposure estimates. We developed a random forest model to estimate daily PM2.5 concentrations at 1 km2 resolution in and around industrialized Gauteng Province, South Africa, by combining satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, land use, and socioeconomic data. We then compared PM2.5 concentrations in the study domain before and after the implementation of the new national air quality standards. We aimed to test whether machine learning models are suitable for regions with sparse ground observations such as South Africa and which predictors played important roles in PM2.5 modeling. The cross-validation R2 and Root Mean Square Error of our model was 0.80 and 9.40 µg/m3, respectively. Satellite AOD, seasonal indicator, total precipitation, and population were among the most important predictors. Model-estimated PM2.5 levels successfully captured the temporal pattern recorded by ground observations. Spatially, the highest annual PM2.5 concentration appeared in central and northern Gauteng, including northern Johannesburg and the city of Tshwane. Since the 2016 changes in national PM2.5 standards, PM2.5 concentrations have decreased in most of our study region, although levels in Johannesburg and its surrounding areas have remained relatively constant. This is anadvanced PM2.5 model for South Africa with high prediction accuracy at the daily level and at a relatively high spatial resolution. Our study provided a reference for predictor selection, and our results can be used for a variety of purposes, including epidemiological research, burden of disease assessments, and policy evaluation.

Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health.

Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a "business as usual scenario", that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.