ABSTRACT
Background: Air conditioners can prevent heat-related illness and mortality, but the increased use of air conditioners may enhance susceptibility to heat-related illnesses during large-scale power failures. Here, we examined the risks of heat-related illness ambulance transport (HIAT) and mortality associated with typhoon-related electricity reduction (ER) in the summer months in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Methods: We conducted event study analyses to compare temperature-HIAT and mortality associations before and after the power outage (July to September 2019). To better understand the role of temperature during the power outage, we then examined whether the temperature-HIAT and mortality associations were modified by different power outage levels (0%, 10%, and 20% ER). We computed the ratios of relative risks to compare the risks associated with various ER values to the risks associated without ER. Results: We analyzed the data of 14,912 HIAT cases and 74,064 deaths. Overall, 93,200 power outage cases were observed when the typhoon hit. Event study results showed that the incidence rate ratio was 2.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.42, 2.84) with effects enduring up to 6 days, and 1.11 (95% CI = 1.02, 1.22) for mortality on the first 3 days after the typhoon hit. Comparing 20% to 0% ER, the ratios of relative risks of heat exposure were 2.32 (95% CI = 1.41, 3.82) for HIAT and 0.95 (95% CI = 0.75, 1.22) for mortality. Conclusions: A 20% ER was associated with a two-fold greater risk of HIAT because of summer heat during the power outage, but there was little evidence for the association with all-cause mortality.
ABSTRACT
Some cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are triggered by changes in ambient temperature or extremes of temperature. This study aimed to clarify the changes in mortality associated with temperature-sensitive diseases in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used data from three major cities (Sapporo City, Tokyo 23 wards, and Osaka City) from 2010 to 2019 to determine disease mortality rates and monthly mean temperatures from April to December. If the pandemic had not occurred in 2020, the results showed that temperature-sensitive disease death counts would have increased from 324 to 980, based on a 95% confidence interval estimated from the past 10 years in Sapporo (19-56% increase in actual deaths from 2020), from 651 to 2,653 in Tokyo (10-39% increase), and from 235 to 1,343 in Osaka (8-48% increase). Analyses of meshed population data during the COVID-19 pandemic indicated that inhibiting people's behaviour and outdoor mobility, especially in older men, caused a decrease in mortality.