Ecological countermeasures to prevent pathogen spillover and subsequent pandemics.

Substantial global attention is focused on how to reduce the risk of future pandemics. Reducing this risk requires investment in prevention, preparedness, and response. Although preparedness and response have received significant focus, prevention, especially the prevention of zoonotic spillover, remains largely absent from global conversations. This oversight is due in part to the lack of a clear definition of prevention and lack of guidance on how to achieve it. To address this gap, we elucidate the mechanisms linking environmental change and zoonotic spillover using spillover of viruses from bats as a case study. We identify ecological interventions that can disrupt these spillover mechanisms and propose policy frameworks for their implementation. Recognizing that pandemics originate in ecological systems, we advocate for integrating ecological approaches alongside biomedical approaches in a comprehensive and balanced pandemic prevention strategy.

Land use change in rapidly developing economies-a case study on land use intensification and land fallowing in Kochi, Kerala, India.

The land use/land cover change is a local driver of environmental change having cascading impacts and implications at the global level, and therefore requires appreciable consideration when perceived from sustainability perspectives. Kerala, the southernmost state of India, has undergone a dramatic transition from a traditional agrarian economy to a modern thriving economy involving the irrational exploitation of natural resources, precisely, land and its components. The present study addresses how land is being changed along an urbanization gradient in the most agglomerative city in the state, Kochi, during the last one and half decades. High-resolution remote sensing data available from the Google Earth Pro pertaining to the four time periods, i.e., 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, representing urban, suburban, and rural areas, were analysed to estimate the changes in land use land cover. A semi-structured interview was conducted at the household level to identify the major drivers of land use change. The results indicated the presence of two major and divergent trends; the first one is the intensification of land use activities at the rate of 1.37% per annum, primarily driven by urbanization and infrastructure developments, and the second one is the fallowing and abandonment of land (at the rate of 0.21% per annum) driven by the increased cost of cultivation. The rates of change are more prominent in the rural areas while the urban grids are nearing saturation occupying nearly two-thirds of the area with urban features at the expense of greenery. Though the progression with respect to urbanization and infrastructure developments is expected, the fallowing and abandonment of land is unanticipated, raising serious questions in the developmental pathways to achieve Sustainable Development Goals in the State of Kerala.

Correction: Prioritizing surveillance of Nipah virus in India.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007393.].

A Global-Scale Ecological Niche Modeling of the Emerging Pathogen Serratia marcescens to Aid in its Spatial Ecology.

Serratia marcescens is a big emerging concern for human health and coral biodiversity. Spatial ecology and the influencing factors on pathogen ecology, however, remain unknown. The study forms the first global risk assessment of S. marcescens. MaxEnt niche modeling was applied using two biotic and sixteen abiotic variables. The world was classified into five risk-level categories based on the pathogen ecology, and the world population exposed to S. marcescens infection was then quantified. The prepared model showed an area under the curve value of 0.918 ± 0.028, implying excellent prediction ability. The highly and moderately suitable areas occupied around 0.52% and 17.9% of the total global land area. The order of probability of having S. marcescens-related infections was Asia > North America > South America > Europe > Africa > Australia. Human population density and temperature were the most influential factors in the distribution. The moderate to high transmission risk zones contained 0.20% (1.61 billion people) of the human population. In brief, these results give novel insights into its spatial ecology and provide the risk maps that can be utilized to plan targeted strategic control measures against future invasions of this emerging pathogen.

Goat as the ideal climate-resilient animal model in tropical environment: revisiting advantages over other livestock species.

In the agriculture sector, livestock are considered extremely resilient to climate change and are tipped to play a significant role in ensuring food security to meet the increased demands of growing human population by 2050. Compared to other domestic species, goats are considered the ideal animal model for climate change due to its high thermal and drought resilience, ability to survive on limited pastures, and high disease resistance. This review is therefore a revisit to the advantages of rearing goats over other livestock species under current and future trends of changes in climate, particularly to cope with recurrent multiple stressors such as heat load, and lack of water and feed. In summary, goats, also called as poor man's cow, are preferred by the small-scale landless farmers due to their low input and assured higher output system, as they require low initial investment, with minimum specialized facilities and labors. Furthermore, they perceive goats as better resilient animal to cope with multiple stressors such as heat load, and water and feed scarcity, and possess better skills to cope with bush, when compared with sheep and cattle. The unique capacity for employing behavioral plasticity and morphological features of goats gives them clear advantage over sheep and cattle, when coping with seasonal biotopes, and experiences of water and feed shortage. When facing with low-quality feed, they also are superior to cattle and sheep to digest dry matter and to recycle nitrogen. Additionally, goats have superior ability to desiccate feces and concentrate urine, when compared with sheep and cattle. These advantages make goat the go-to species for efficiently countering the adversities associated with climate change and to optimize appropriate economic return through sustained production. Therefore, goats are tipped to be the future animals with extreme potential to counter the projected alarming climate change impacts and expected to play a significant role in ensuring food security to meet the demands of the growing human population by the end of this century.

Analysis of carcass traits and quantitative expression patterns of different meat quality governing genes during heat stress exposure in indigenous goats.

A study was conducted to assess the impact of heat stress on various carcass traits, meat quality variables and gene expression patterns which governs meat quality in indigenous female Kodi Aadu breed. The study was conducted for 45 days in climate chamber with 12 animals randomly allocated into two groups of six animals each, KC (n = 6; Female; Control), KHS (n = 6; Female; heat stress). Majority of the major carcass traits and meat quality variables remained intact between KC and KHS groups. The myostatin (MSTN), calpain 1 (CAPN1) and Diacylglycerol Acyltransferase 1 (DGAT1) mRNA expression patterns were significantly (P < 0.01) lower in KHS group as compared to KC group. However, the calpain 2 (CAPN2), calpastatin (CAST) and Crytallin alpha (CRYA) mRNA expression patterns were significantly (P < 0.05) higher in KHS group. Thus, the study established that the major carcass traits and meat quality variables remained intact after heat stress exposure in female Kodi Aadu goats. Further, MSTN, HSP27, CRYA and HSP90 genes were identified as biomarkers for reflecting meat quality during heat stress exposure in female Kodi Aadu breed.

Prioritizing surveillance of Nipah virus in India.

The 2018 outbreak of Nipah virus in Kerala, India, highlights the need for global surveillance of henipaviruses in bats, which are the reservoir hosts for this and other viruses. Nipah virus, an emerging paramyxovirus in the genus Henipavirus, causes severe disease and stuttering chains of transmission in humans and is considered a potential pandemic threat. In May 2018, an outbreak of Nipah virus began in Kerala, > 1800 km from the sites of previous outbreaks in eastern India in 2001 and 2007. Twenty-three people were infected and 21 people died (16 deaths and 18 cases were laboratory confirmed). Initial surveillance focused on insectivorous bats (Megaderma spasma), whereas follow-up surveys within Kerala found evidence of Nipah virus in fruit bats (Pteropus medius). P. medius is the confirmed host in Bangladesh and is now a confirmed host in India. However, other bat species may also serve as reservoir hosts of henipaviruses. To inform surveillance of Nipah virus in bats, we reviewed and analyzed the published records of Nipah virus surveillance globally. We applied a trait-based machine learning approach to a subset of species that occur in Asia, Australia, and Oceana. In addition to seven species in Kerala that were previously identified as Nipah virus seropositive, we identified at least four bat species that, on the basis of trait similarity with known Nipah virus-seropositive species, have a relatively high likelihood of exposure to Nipah or Nipah-like viruses in India. These machine-learning approaches provide the first step in the sequence of studies required to assess the risk of Nipah virus spillover in India. Nipah virus surveillance not only within Kerala but also elsewhere in India would benefit from a research pipeline that included surveys of known and predicted reservoirs for serological evidence of past infection with Nipah virus (or cross reacting henipaviruses). Serosurveys should then be followed by longitudinal spatial and temporal studies to detect shedding and isolate virus from species with evidence of infection. Ecological studies will then be required to understand the dynamics governing prevalence and shedding in bats and the contacts that could pose a risk to public health.