Role of atmospheric rivers in shaping long term Arctic moisture variability.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) reaching high-latitudes in summer contribute to the majority of climatological poleward water vapor transport into the Arctic. This transport has exhibited long term changes over the past decades, which cannot be entirely explained by anthropogenic forcing according to ensemble model responses. Here, through observational analyses and model experiments in which winds are adjusted to match observations, we demonstrate that low-frequency, large-scale circulation changes in the Arctic play a decisive role in regulating AR activity and thus inducing the recent upsurge of this activity in the region. It is estimated that the trend in summertime AR activity may contribute to 36% of the increasing trend of atmospheric summer moisture over the entire Arctic since 1979 and account for over half of the humidity trends in certain areas experiencing significant recent warming, such as western Greenland, northern Europe, and eastern Siberia. This indicates that AR activity, mostly driven by strong synoptic weather systems often regarded as stochastic, may serve as a vital mechanism in regulating long term moisture variability in the Arctic.

Influence of the freezing level on atmospheric rivers in High Mountain Asia: WRF case studies of orographic precipitation extremes.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) reach High Mountain Asia (HMA) about 10 days per month during the winter and spring, resulting in about 20 mm day-1 of precipitation. However, a few events may exceed 100 mm day-1, providing most of the total winter precipitation and increasing the risk of precipitation-triggered landslides and flooding, particularly when the height of the height of the 0 ∘C isotherm, or freezing level is above-average. This study shows that from 1979 to 2015, integrated water vapor transport (IVT) during ARs that reach Western HMA has increased 16% while the freezing level has increased up to 35 m. HMA ARs that have an above-average freezing level result in 10-40% less frozen precipitation compared to ARs with a below-average freezing level. To evaluate the importance of these trends in the characteristics of ARs, we investigate mesoscale processes leading to orographic precipitation using Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) simulations at 6.7 km spatial resolution. We contrast two above- and below- average freezing level AR events with otherwise broadly similar characteristics and show that with a 50-600 m increase in freezing level, the above-average AR resulted in 10-70% less frozen precipitation than the below-average event. This study contributes to a better understanding of climate change-related impacts within HMA's hydrological cycle and the associated hazards to vulnerable communities living in the region.

Winter and spring atmospheric rivers in High Mountain Asia: climatology, dynamics, and variability.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) that reach the complex terrain of High Mountain Asia (HMA) cause significant hydrological impacts for millions of people. While ARs are often associated with precipitation extremes and can cause floods and debris flows affecting populated communities, little is known about ARs that reach as far inland as HMA. This paper characterizes AR types and investigates dynamical mechanisms associated with the development of ARs that typically affect HMA. Combined empirical orthogonal function (cEOF) analysis using integrated water vapor transport (IVT) is applied to days where an AR reaches HMA. K-means cluster analysis applied to the first two principal components uncovered three subtypes of AR events with distinct synoptic characteristics during winter and spring months. The first subtype increases precipitation and IVT in Western HMA and is associated with a zonally oriented wave train propagating within the westerly jet waveguide. The second subtype is associated with enhanced southwesterly IVT, anomalous upper-level cyclonic circulation centered on 45 ∘ E, and precipitation in Northwestern HMA. The third subtype shows anomalous precipitation in Eastern HMA and southwesterly IVT across the Bay of Bengal. Interannual variations in the frequency of HMA ARs and relationships with various teleconnection patterns show that western HMA AR subtypes are sensitive to well-known remote large-scale climate factors, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and the Siberian High. These results provide synoptic characterization of the three types of ARs that reach HMA and reveal the previously unexplored significance of their contribution to winter and spring precipitation. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-021-06008-z.

Evolution of MHC class II E beta diversity within the genus Peromyscus.

Progress in understanding the evolution of variation at the MHC has been slowed by an inability to assess the relative roles of mutation vs. intragenic recombination in contributing to observed polymorphism. Recent theoretical advances now permit a quantitative treatment of the problem, with the result that the amount of recombination is at least an order of magnitude greater than that of mutation in the history of class II genes. We suggest that this insight allows progress in evaluating the importance of other factors affecting the evolution of the MHC. We investigated the evolution of MHC class II E beta sequence diversity in the genus Peromyscus. We find evidence for extensive recombination in the history of these sequences. Nevertheless, it appears that intragenic recombination alone is insufficient to account for evolution of MHC diversity in Peromyscus. Significant differences in silent variation among subgenera arose over a relatively short period of time, with little subsequent change. We argue that these observations are consistent with the effects of historical population bottleneck(s). Population restrictions may explain general features of MHC evolution, including the large amount of recombination in the history of MHC genes, because intragenic recombination may efficiently regenerate allelic polymorphism following a population constriction.

Relative roles of mutation and recombination in generating allelic polymorphism at an MHC class II locus in Peromyscus maniculatus.

The MHC class II loci encoding cell surface antigens exhibit extremely high allelic polymorphism. There is considerable uncertainty in the literature over the relative roles of recombination and de novo mutation in generating this diversity. We studied class II sequence diversity and allelic polymorphism in two populations of Peromyscus maniculatus, which are among the most widespread and abundant mammals of North America. We find that intragenic recombination (or gene conversion) has been the predominant mode for the generation of allelic polymorphism in this species, with the amount of population recombination per base pair exceeding mutation by at least an order of magnitude during the history of the sample. Despite this, patchwork motifs of sites with high linkage disequilibrium are observed. This does not appear to be consistent with the much larger amount of recombination versus mutation in the history of the sample, unless the recombination rate is highly non-uniform over the sequence or selection maintains certain sites in linkage disequilibrium. We conclude that selection is most likely to be responsible for preserving sequence motifs in the presence of abundant recombination.