Twenty-five emerging questions when detecting, understanding, and predicting future fish distributions in a changing climate.

The 2023 Annual Symposium of the Fisheries Society of the British Isles hosted opportunities for researchers, scientists, and policy makers to reflect on the state of art of predicting fish distributions and consider the implications to the marine and aquatic environments of a changing climate. The outcome of one special interest group at the Symposium was a collection of questions, organized under five themes, which begin to capture the state of the field and identify priorities for research and management over the coming years. The five themes were Physiology, Mechanisms, Detect and Measure, Manage, and Wider Ecosystems. The questions, 25 of them, addressed concepts which remain poorly understood, are data deficient, and/or are likely to be impacted in measurable or profound ways by climate change. Moving from the first to the last theme, the questions expanded in the scope of their considerations, from specific processes within the individual to ecosystem-wide impacts, but no one question is bigger than any other: each is important in detecting, understanding, and predicting fish distributions, and each will be impacted by an aspect of climate change. In this way, our questions, particularly those concerning unknown mechanisms and data deficiencies, aimed to offer a guide to other researchers, managers, and policy makers in the prioritization of future work as a changing climate is expected to have complex and disperse impacts on fish populations and distributions that will require a coordinated effort to address.

On-demand auxeticity and co-existing pre-tension induced compression stage in a sandwich design with kinematically constrained 3D suture tiles.

By incorporating concepts from auxeticity, kinematic constraints, pre-tension induced compression (PIC), and suture tessellations, tiled sandwich composites are designed, demonstrating behaviors attributed to the synergy between auxeticity and pre-tension induced contact and compression, simultaneously triggered by a threshold strain. The designs can theoretically achieve on-demand Poisson's ratio in the widest range (-∞, +∞), and once triggered, the Poisson's ratio is stable under large deformation. Also, once the overall strain goes beyond the threshold, the designs enter into a PIC stage, ensuring the middle soft layer takes the tensile load, while the tiles are under compression via contact and the 3D articulation of the tooth-channel pairs. In this PIC stage, the tooth-channel pairs provide kinematic constraints via the contact and relative sliding between teeth and channels. The deformation mechanisms and mechanical properties of them are systematically explored via an integrated analytical, numerical, and experimental approach. Mechanical experiments are performed on 3D printed specimens. It is found that the length aspect ratio and the obliqueness of the teeth significantly influence the constraint angle and therefore the auxeticity and strength of the designs.

How well do connectivity tools agree over the full life cycle? A case study of Irish Sea plaice Pleuronectes platessa Linnaeus, 1758.

Adult plaice in the Irish Sea have distinct traits that reflect the spawning locations that could suggest a number of different populations. However, do connectivity pathways support this concept? Different tools are directed at measuring exchange or connectivity between different life-history stages, and the challenge is to integrate the signals to obtain full life-cycle estimates. Collectively, the different methods reveal stable connectivity between known spawning and nursery grounds, with sufficient exchange to maintain a single population with weak genetic structure.

Direction-dependent bending resistance of 3D printed bio-inspired composites with asymmetric 3D articulated tiles.

Inspired by the protective armors in nature, composites with asymmetric 3D articulated tiles attached to a soft layer are designed and fabricated via a multi-material 3D printer. The bending resistance of the new designs are characterized via three-point bending experiments. Bending rigidity, strength, and final deflection of the designs are quantified and compared when loaded in two different in-plane and two different out-of-plane directions. It is found that in general, the designs with articulated tiles show direction-dependent bending behaviors with significantly increased bending rigidity, strength, and deflection to final failure in certain loading directions, as is attributed to the asymmetric tile articulation (asymmetric about the mid-plane of tiles) and an interesting sliding-induced auxetic effect. Analytical, numerical, and experimental analyses are conducted to unveil the underlying mechanisms.

Myeloablation Followed by Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation and Long-Term Normalization of Systemic Sclerosis Molecular Signatures.

OBJECTIVE: In the randomized Scleroderma: Cyclophosphamide or Transplantation (SCOT) trial, myeloablation, followed by hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), led to the normalization of systemic sclerosis (SSc) peripheral blood cell (PBC) gene expression signature at the 26-month visit. Herein, we examined long-term molecular changes ensuing 54 months after randomization for individuals receiving an HSCT or 12 months of intravenous cyclophosphamide (CYC). METHODS: Global PBC transcript studies were performed in study participants at pretreatment baseline and at 38 months and 54 months after randomization, as well as in healthy controls using Illumina HT-12 arrays. RESULTS: Thirty (HSCT = 19 and CYC = 11) participants had 38-month samples available, and 26 (HSCT = 16 and CYC = 11) had 54-month samples available. In the paired comparison to baseline, a significant down-regulation of interferon modules and an up-regulation of cytotoxic/natural killer module were observed at the 38-month and 54-month visits in the HSCT arm, indicating a long-term normalization of baseline SSc gene expression signature. No differentially expressed modules were detected in the CYC arm. In comparison to samples from healthy controls, 38-month visit samples in the HSCT arm showed an up-regulation of B cell and plasmablast modules and a down-regulation of myeloid and inflammation modules. Importantly, 54-month HSCT samples did not show any differentially expressed modules compared to healthy control samples, suggesting completion of immune reconstitution. Participants in the CYC arm continued to show an SSc transcript signature in comparison to controls at both time points. CONCLUSION: Paralleling the observed clinical benefit, HSCT leads to durable long-term normalization of the molecular signature in SSc, with completion of immune resetting to 54 months after HSCT.

Successful Autologous Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant in Glycine Receptor Antibody-Positive Stiff Person Syndrome: A Case Report

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: To describe a case of glycine receptor (GlyR) antibody-positive stiff person syndrome (SPS) treated with autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplant (aHSCT). METHODS: This was a multicenter collaboration for the treatment of a single patient who underwent aHSCT as part of a clinical trial (NCT00716066). To objectively assess the response to transplantation, several clinical outcome measures were evaluated pretransplant and up to 18 months post-transplant, including modified Rankin Score (mRS), stiffness index, Hauser Ambulation Score (HAS), hypersensitivity index, timed 25-foot walk, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment. RESULTS: After transplant, the patient achieved sustained clinical improvement evidenced across various clinical scales, including mRS, stiffness index, HAS, and 25-foot walk time. DISCUSSION: aHSCT represents a promising treatment option for SPS, including for GlyR-positive patients. In addition, this case represents the need to validate and standardize best clinical outcome measures for patients with SPS. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: Class IV; this is a single observational study without controls.

Remission of severe myasthenia gravis after autologous stem cell transplantation.

OBJECTIVE: Myasthenia gravis (MG) is an autoantibody-mediated neuromuscular junction disorder involving the acetylcholine receptors on the motor endplate. The safety and response to high-dose chemotherapy (HDIT) and autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) were assessed in a patient with severe refractory MG. METHODS: As part of a pilot study of HDIT/HCT for patients with treatment-resistant autoimmune neurological disorders, a patient with severe refractory MG underwent treatment. After mobilization of hematopoietic stem cells with rituximab, prednisone, and G-CSF, the patient had HDIT consisting of carmustine, etoposide, cytarabine, melphalan, and rabbit antithymocyte globulin, followed by autologous HCT. The effect of treatment on the autoantibody to the acetylcholine receptor (AChR) was assessed. RESULTS: The patient had been diagnosed with AChR antibody-positive MG 14 years before HDIT/HCT and had failed thymectomy, therapeutic plasma exchange, and multiple immunomodulatory agents. The Myasthenia Gravis Foundation of America (MGFA) clinical classification was IVb before HDIT/HCT. She tolerated HDIT/HCT well and started to improve clinically within days of treatment. At both 1 and 2 years after HDIT/HCT, patients remained symptom-free. After HDIT/HCT, AChR-binding autoantibodies persisted, and the relative frequency of immune cell subtypes shifted. INTERPRETATION: HDIT/HCT induced a complete response of disease activity in a patient with severe refractory MG. This response may suggest that a cell-mediated etiology may be a significant contributing factor in refractory MG cases. A phase 2 clinical trial is warranted to establish if HDIT/HCT can be an effective therapy for severe refractory MG and to gain a further understanding of disease pathogenesis.

Characterising the autoantibody repertoire in systemic sclerosis following myeloablative haematopoietic stem cell transplantation.

OBJECTIVES: Results from the SCOT (Scleroderma: Cyclophosphamide Or Transplantation) clinical trial demonstrated significant benefits of haematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) versus cyclophosphamide (CTX) in patients with systemic sclerosis. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that transplantation stabilises the autoantibody repertoire in patients with favourable clinical outcomes. METHODS: We used a bead-based array containing 221 protein antigens to profile serum IgG autoantibodies in participants of the SCOT trial. RESULTS: Comparison of autoantibody profiles at month 26 (n=23 HSCT; n=22 CTX) revealed antibodies against two viral antigens and six self-proteins (SSB/La, CX3CL1, glycyl-tRNA synthetase (EJ), parietal cell antigen, bactericidal permeability-increasing protein and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)) that were significantly different between treatment groups. Linear mixed model analysis identified temporal increases in antibody levels for hepatitis B surface antigen, CCL3 and EGFR in HSCT-treated patients. Eight of 32 HSCT-treated participants and one of 31 CTX-treated participants had temporally varying serum antibody profiles for one or more of 14 antigens. Baseline autoantibody levels against 20 unique antigens, including 9 secreted proteins (interleukins, IL-18, IL-22, IL-23 and IL-27), interferon-α2A, stem cell factor, transforming growth factor-ß, macrophage colony-stimulating factor and macrophage migration inhibitory factor were significantly higher in patients who survived event-free to month 54. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that HSCT favourably alters the autoantibody repertoire, which remains virtually unchanged in CTX-treated patients. Although antibodies recognising secreted proteins are generally thought to be pathogenic, our results suggest a subset could potentially modulate HSCT in scleroderma.

Clinical and Molecular Findings After Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation or Cyclophosphamide for Scleroderma: Handling Missing Longitudinal Data.

OBJECTIVE: Among individuals with systemic sclerosis (SSc) randomized to cyclophosphamide (CYC) (n = 34) or hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) (n = 33), we examined longitudinal trends of clinical, pulmonary function, and quality of life measures while accounting for the influence of early failures on treatment comparisons. METHODS: Assuming that data were missing at random, mixed-effects regression models were used to estimate longitudinal trends for clinical measures when comparing treatment groups. Results were compared to observed means and to longitudinal trends estimated from shared parameter models, assuming that data were missing not at random. Longitudinal trends for SSc intrinsic molecular subsets defined by baseline gene expression signatures (normal-like, inflammatory, and fibroproliferative signatures) were also studied. RESULTS: Available observed means for pulmonary function tests appeared to improve over time in both arms. However, after accounting for participant loss, forced vital capacity in HSCT recipients increased by 0.77 percentage points/year but worsened by -3.70/year for CYC (P = 0.004). Similar results were found for diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide and quality of life indicators. Results for both analytic models were consistent. HSCT recipients in the inflammatory (n = 20) and fibroproliferative (n = 20) subsets had superior long-term trends compared to CYC for pulmonary and quality of life measures. HSCT was also superior for modified Rodnan skin thickness scores in the fibroproliferative subset. For the normal-like subset (n = 22), superiority of HSCT was less apparent. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal trends estimated from 2 statistical models affirm the efficacy of HSCT over CYC in severe SSc. Failure to account for early loss of participants may distort estimated clinical trends over the long term.

Myeloablative autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation resets the B cell repertoire to a more naïve state in patients with systemic sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: Myeloablative autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) was recently demonstrated to provide significant benefit over cyclophosphamide (CYC) in the treatment of diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) in the Scleroderma: Cyclophosphamide or Transplantation (SCOT) trial. As dysregulation of the B cell compartment has previously been described in dcSSc, we sought to gain insight into the effects of myeloablative autologous HSCT as compared with CYC. METHODS: We sequenced the peripheral blood immunoglobulin heavy chain (IGH) repertoires in patients with dcSSc enrolled in the SCOT trial. RESULTS: Myeloablative autologous HSCT was associated with a sustained increase in IgM isotype antibodies bearing a low mutation rate. Clonal expression was reduced in IGH repertoires following myeloablative autologous HSCT. Additionally, we identified a underusage of immunoglobulin heavy chain V gene 5-51 in patients with dcSSc, and usage normalised following myeloablative autologous HSCT but not CYC treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Together, these findings suggest that myeloablative autologous HSCT resets the IGH repertoire to a more naïve state characterised by IgM-expressing B cells, providing a possible mechanism for the elimination of pathogenic B cells that may contribute to the benefit of HSCT over CYC in the treatment of dcSSc.

Lymphocyte subset abnormalities in early severe scleroderma favor a Th2 phenotype and are not altered by prior immunosuppressive therapy.

OBJECTIVES: The Scleroderma: Cyclophosphamide or Transplantation (SCOT) trial compared hematopoietic stem cell transplant to CYC treatment in patients with early SSc with progressive skin and lung or kidney involvement. Here we describe lymphocyte phenotype abnormalities at study entry and the relation to prior DMARD therapy. METHODS: Lymphocyte subsets (n = 26) measured by flow cytometry were compared in 123 heathy controls and 71 SCOT participants, including those given (n = 57) or not given (n = 14) DMARDs within 12 months of randomization. RESULTS: Compared with healthy controls, individuals with SSc showed significant reductions in central memory CD8 T cells, activated total and CD4 T cells, γ/δ T cells, memory B cells, myeloid and plasmacytoid dendritic cells and FOXP3+CD25+ Treg cells and increases in naïve CD4 T cells, effector memory CD4 T cells and effector CD8 T cells. A greater bias towards a IL-4+ Th2/T cytotoxic 2 (Tc2) phenotype based on the Th2:Th1 CD4 ratio and Tc2:Tc1 CD8 T cells was also found. Notably, no difference in any lymphocyte subset was observed between those given or not given prior DMARDs. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with early, severe SSc, significant lymphocyte subset abnormalities were observed. Prior treatment with immunosuppressive therapy did not impact the immunophenotype, suggesting that lymphocyte disturbances in scleroderma appeared to be due to the disease itself. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov (https://clinicaltrials.gov), NCT00114530.

Brain volume change after high-dose immunosuppression and autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Brain volume loss (BVL) is commonly observed after high-dose immunosuppression and autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (HDIT/HCT) for treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS). To better understand the mechanisms of underlying BVL associated with this treatment, we characterized the time courses of whole-brain (WB), grey-matter (GM) and white-matter (WM) volume loss in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients who received BEAM-based HDIT/HCT. METHODS: We used Jacobian integration to measure MRI-based WB, GM and WM volume changes up to 5 years after transplant in twenty-four RRMS participants who underwent BEAM-based HDIT/HCT. Using a two-piecewise mixed-effects model, we estimated the short-term (baseline to 1 year) and long-term (beyond 1 year) rates of BVL after HDIT/HCT. We also compared the rates based on the presence of gadolinium-enhancing lesions at baseline, and the maintenance of event-free survival during follow-up. RESULTS: On average, accelerated short-term BVL of -1.37% (SE: 0.21), -0.86% (SE: 0.28) and -2.18% (SE: 0.26) occurred in WB, GM and WM, respectively. Baseline T1-weighted MRI WM lesion volume was a significant predictor in the WB (short-term) and the WM (short-term and long-term). The average rates of BVL after the initial acceleration were -0.22%/y (SE: 0.10), -0.13%/y (SE: 0.11) and -0.36%/y (SE: 0.11) in the WB, GM and WM, respectively. Participants with gadolinium-enhancing lesions at baseline had significantly higher short-term rates of GM (-1.56% vs. -0.27%, p = 0.01) and WB volume loss (-1.94% vs. -0.81%, p = 0.006) at 1 year follow-up as compared to those without gadolinium-enhancing lesions. WM volume loss was not significantly different (-2.59% vs. -1.66%, p = 0.16). Participants who maintained event-free survival had similar rates of BVL compared to those who did not. CONCLUSIONS: BVL may accelerate for months after HDIT/HCT. However, over the long-term, adequate HDIT/HCT may reduce BVL rates to those similar to normal aging at the WB level.

Lemon sole Microstomus kitt in the northern North Sea: a multidisciplinary approach to the early life-history dynamics.

Lemon sole Microstomus kitt is a commercially valuable flatfish species that occurs in shelf waters around the northeast Atlantic. Only the most basic life-history information is available for the North Sea. Spawning is generally assumed to occur between early May and October, with a peak between May and August. Lemon sole larvae have been found in the water column in the northern North Sea in winter during standard surveys. Larvae captured in November/December 2016 and January/February 2017 using the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas standard 2 m Midwater Ring trawls (MIK) were analysed to gain a better understanding of the pelagic early life-history stages of lemon sole, especially in relation to the timing of spawning and the dispersal of overwintering larvae. Larval age was estimated from sagittal otolith primary increment counts. The larvae caught in November/December ranged in nominal age from 4 to 45 days post-hatching which suggests that spawning continues into late October and November. Most, but not all, of the larvae caught in January/February were post metamorphosis, and the difference in age between the two sampling dates was consistent with the elapsed time between samplings. The estimated hatching dates confirm that lemon sole spawning extends into late autumn in the northern North Sea, with overwintering larvae in all developmental stages. Drift modelling of eggs and larvae released at historically documented spawning grounds in the northern North Sea suggests that these grounds are also the source for all of the larvae sampled during the 2016-2017 surveys.

Quantitative molecular detection of larval Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in stomach contents of Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) marks regions of predation pressure.

Mortality rates in the early life-history stages of fishes are generally high yet identifying the causes remain unclear. Faltering recruitment rates of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in the Norwegian Sea indicate a need to identify which mortality factors influence larval herring survival. Previous research suggests that increased predation pressure by Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) may contribute to the disconnect between spawning stock biomass and recruitment. To quantify the contribution of predation pressure by Atlantic mackerel to herring larval mortality, two research cruises were conducted within a probable "hot spot" (67-72° N) for intensified mackerel predation based on particle drift simulations. Mackerel stomach contents were analysed for herring larvae content using droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) with a quantitative molecular detection assay specific for herring. The ddPCR results demonstrate clear predation by mackerel on herring larvae and also suggest that the alternative use of visual examination may give misleading results. Our results show that mackerel should be considered a potentially important predator on herring larvae. The quantitative molecular assay presented here shows great promise as an efficient and specific tool to correctly identify and quantify predation pressure on early life-history stages of fishes.

Genetic response to human-induced habitat changes in the marine environment: A century of evolution of European sprat in Landvikvannet, Norway.

Habitat changes represent one of the five most pervasive threats to biodiversity. However, anthropogenic activities also have the capacity to create novel niche spaces to which species respond differently. In 1880, one such habitat alterations occurred in Landvikvannet, a freshwater lake on the Norwegian coast of Skagerrak, which became brackish after being artificially connected to the sea. This lake is now home to the European sprat, a pelagic marine fish that managed to develop a self-recruiting population in barely few decades. Landvikvannet sprat proved to be genetically isolated from the three main populations described for this species; that is, Norwegian fjords, Baltic Sea, and the combination of North Sea, Kattegat, and Skagerrak. This distinctness was depicted by an accuracy self-assignment of 89% and a highly significant F ST between the lake sprat and each of the remaining samples (average of ≈0.105). The correlation between genetic and environmental variation indicated that salinity could be an important environmental driver of selection (3.3% of the 91 SNPs showed strong associations). Likewise, Isolation by Environment was detected for salinity, although not for temperature, in samples not adhering to an Isolation by Distance pattern. Neighbor-joining tree analysis suggested that the source of the lake sprat is in the Norwegian fjords, rather than in the Baltic Sea despite a similar salinity profile. Strongly drifted allele frequencies and lower genetic diversity in Landvikvannet compared with the Norwegian fjords concur with a founder effect potentially associated with local adaptation to low salinity. Genetic differentiation (F ST) between marine and brackish sprat is larger in the comparison Norway-Landvikvannet than in Norway-Baltic, which suggests that the observed divergence was achieved in Landvikvannet in some 65 generations, that is, 132 years, rather than gradually over thousands of years (the age of the Baltic Sea), thus highlighting the pace at which human-driven evolution can happen.

Development stage distribution as a proxy for feeding success and growth for first feeding Norwegian spring spawning herring larvae.

The estimation of growth rates in young herring larvae (Clupea harengus) in the field can be difficult because the primary increments in the otoliths may not be discernible or formed at a daily level. Likewise, the estimation of mortality rates of fish larvae in the field is very difficult to achieve, especially in a rigorous quantitative manner. In this study, the authors suggest the use of a stage-based proxy of feeding success, growth and potential survival or mortality risk of field-caught larvae. The stage-based proxy is derived based on observations from previous laboratory studies where larvae successfully completing start-feeding on external food sources will advance through the early development stages, whereas those that do not (unsuccessful larvae) remain and accumulate in the development stage preceding first feeding. The relative occurrence of larvae in the early development stages is therefore expected to reflect feeding conditions of the larvae, with higher ratios of unsuccessful larvae indicative of poor feeding success and higher mortality risk. Using field data on Norwegian spring spawning herring, the authors document that the relative occurrence of larvae in the late non-feeding stage is significantly higher at lower average zooplankton concentrations, in line with the predictions of the authors that this novel approach of using a stage-based proxy could be a useful indication of feeding success, growth and mortality in the field. Further, there was a significant interaction effect with ambient temperature, with the ratio being higher at low zooplankton concentrations at higher temperatures. This study also suggests that these findings are not population specific as the same accumulation of non-feeding larvae in the late non-feeding stage was observed in laboratory-reared larvae of both autumn and spring spawning herring populations.

Large-Scale Characterization of Systemic Sclerosis Serum Protein Profile: Comparison to Peripheral Blood Cell Transcriptome and Correlations With Skin/Lung Fibrosis.

OBJECTIVE: To provide a large-scale assessment of serum protein dysregulation in diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) and to investigate serum protein correlates of SSc fibrotic features. METHODS: We investigated serum protein profiles of 66 participants with dcSSc at baseline who were enrolled in the Scleroderma: Cyclophosphamide or Transplant Trial and 66 age- and sex-matched healthy control subjects. A panel of 230 proteins, including several cytokines and chemokines, was investigated. Whole blood gene expression profiling in concomitantly collected samples was performed. RESULTS: Among the participants with dcSSc, the mean disease duration was 2.3 years. All had interstitial lung disease (ILD), and none were being treated with immunosuppressive agents at baseline. Ninety proteins were differentially expressed in participants with dcSSc compared to healthy control subjects. Similar to previous global skin transcript results, hepatic fibrosis, granulocyte and agranulocyte adhesion, and diapedesis were the top overrepresented pathways. Eighteen proteins correlated with the modified Rodnan skin thickness score (MRSS). Soluble epidermal growth factor receptor was significantly down-regulated in dcSSc and showed the strongest negative correlation with the MRSS, being predictive of the score's course over time, whereas α1 -antichymotrypsin was significantly up-regulated in dcSSc and showed the strongest positive correlation with the MRSS. Furthermore, higher levels of cancer antigen 15-3 correlated with more severe ILD, based on findings of reduced forced vital capacity and higher scores of disease activity on high-resolution computed tomography. Only 14 genes showed significant differential expression in the same direction in serum protein and whole blood RNA gene expression analyses. CONCLUSION: Diffuse cutaneous SSc has a distinct serum protein profile with prominent dysregulation of proteins related to fibrosis and immune cell adhesion/diapedesis. The differential expression for most serum proteins in SSc is likely to originate outside the peripheral blood cells.

Machine learning predicts stem cell transplant response in severe scleroderma.

OBJECTIVE: The Scleroderma: Cyclophosphamide or Transplantation (SCOT) trial demonstrated clinical benefit of haematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) compared with cyclophosphamide (CYC). We mapped PBC (peripheral blood cell) samples from the SCOT clinical trial to scleroderma intrinsic subsets and tested the hypothesis that they predict long-term response to HSCT. METHODS: We analysed gene expression from PBCs of SCOT participants to identify differential treatment response. PBC gene expression data were generated from 63 SCOT participants at baseline and follow-up timepoints. Participants who completed treatment protocol were stratified by intrinsic gene expression subsets at baseline, evaluated for event-free survival (EFS) and analysed for differentially expressed genes (DEGs). RESULTS: Participants from the fibroproliferative subset on HSCT experienced significant improvement in EFS compared with fibroproliferative participants on CYC (p=0.0091). In contrast, EFS did not significantly differ between CYC and HSCT arms for the participants from the normal-like subset (p=0.77) or the inflammatory subset (p=0.1). At each timepoint, we observed considerably more DEGs in HSCT arm compared with CYC arm with HSCT arm showing significant changes in immune response pathways. CONCLUSIONS: Participants from the fibroproliferative subset showed the most significant long-term benefit from HSCT compared with CYC. This study suggests that intrinsic subset stratification of patients may be used to identify patients with SSc who receive significant benefit from HSCT.

Genetic analysis redraws the management boundaries for the European sprat.

Sustainable fisheries management requires detailed knowledge of population genetic structure. The European sprat is an important commercial fish distributed from Morocco to the Arctic circle, Baltic, Mediterranean, and Black seas. Prior to 2018, annual catch advice on sprat from the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) was based on five putative stocks: (a) North Sea, (b) Kattegat-Skagerrak and Norwegian fjords, (c) Baltic Sea, (d) West of Scotland-southern Celtic Seas, and (e) English Channel. However, there were concerns that the sprat advice on stock size estimates management plan inadequately reflected the underlying biological units. Here, we used ddRAD sequencing to develop 91 SNPs that were thereafter used to genotype approximately 2,500 fish from 40 locations. Three highly distinct and relatively homogenous genetic groups were identified: (a) Norwegian fjords; (b) Northeast Atlantic including the North Sea, Kattegat-Skagerrak, Celtic Sea, and Bay of Biscay; and (c) Baltic Sea. Evidence of genetic admixture and possibly physical mixing was detected in samples collected from the transition zone between the North and Baltic seas, but not between any of the other groups. These results have already been implemented by ICES with the decision to merge the North Sea and the Kattegat-Skagerrak sprat to be assessed as a single unit, thus demonstrating that genetic data can be rapidly absorbed to align harvest regimes and biological units.

Horizon Scan of the Belt and Road Initiative.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) represents the largest infrastructure and development project in human history, and presents risks and opportunities for ecosystems, economies, and communities. Some risks (habitat fragmentation, roadkill) are obvious, however, many of the BRI's largest challenges for development and conservation are not obvious and require extensive consideration to identify. In this first BRI Horizon Scan, we identify 11 frontier issues that may have large environmental and social impacts but are not yet recognised. More generally, the BRI will increase China's participation in international environmental governance. Thus, new cooperative modes of governance are needed to balance geopolitical, societal, and environmental interests. Upgrading and standardising global environmental standards is essential to safeguard ecological systems and human societies.