Examining the Relationship Between Hospital-Community Partnerships and COVID-19 Case-Fatality Rates.

Abtract During the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals across the United States were tasked to develop partnerships with other hospitals and community organizations to overcome the unexpected challenges. The aim of this study is to examine COVID-19 case-fatality rates and explore their relationship with hospital-community partnerships. This study employed a cross-sectional design using a multilevel generalized linear model with a Poisson regression distribution and publicly available COVID-19 mortality data from February to October 2020 across 2526 hospital service areas (HSAs). HSAs with a greater number of partnerships were found to have a reduced risk of higher case-fatality rates than those with fewer health system partnerships. The findings indicated the need for greater cooperation between individual health care systems, state and local governments, and community programs for better outcomes in the ongoing and evolving COVID-19 pandemic, and to be better prepared for future pandemics or large-scale public health crises. This study provides the necessary insights for policy makers, hospital administrators, and public health leaders to understand the critical importance of community partnerships and their influence on reducing the COVID-19 case-fatality rate, as well as their potential effects on improving the health of vulnerable populations as a means to achieve the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's goal of achieving health equity. This research illustrates the need for further inquiries into the importance of these health care partnerships for positive health care outcomes.

SARS-CoV-2 attack rate and population immunity in southern New England, March 2020 - May 2021

Estimating an infectious disease attack rate requires inference on the number of reported symptomatic cases of a disease, the number of unreported symptomatic cases, and the number of asymptomatic infections. Population-level immunity can then be estimated as the attack rate plus the number of vaccine recipients who had not been previously infected; this requires an estimate of the fraction of vaccines that were distributed to seropositive individuals. To estimate attack rates and population immunity in southern New England, we fit a validated dynamic epidemiological model to case, clinical, and death data streams reported by Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Connecticut for the first 15 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, from March 1 2020 to May 31 2021. This period includes the initial spring 2020 wave, the major winter wave of 2020-2021, and the lagging wave of lineage B.1.1.7(Alpha) infections during March-April 2021. In autumn 2020, SARS-CoV-2 population immunity (equal to the attack rate at that point) in southern New England was still below 15%, setting the stage for a large winter wave. After the roll-out of vaccines in early 2021, population immunity in many states was expected to approach 70% by spring 2021, with more than half of this immune population coming from vaccinations. Our population immunity estimates for May 31 2021 are 73.4% (95% CrI: 72.9% - 74.1%) for Rhode Island, 64.1% (95% CrI: 64.0% - 64.4%) for Connecticut, and 66.3% (95% CrI: 65.9% - 66.9%) for Massachusetts, indicating that >33% of southern Englanders were still susceptible to infection when the Delta variant began spreading in July 2021. Despite high vaccine coverage in these states, population immunity in summer 2021 was lower than planned due to 34% (Rhode Island), 25% (Connecticut), and 28% (Massachusetts) of vaccine distribution going to seropositive individuals. Future emergency-setting vaccination planning will likely have to consider over-vaccination as a strategy to ensure that high levels of population immunity are reached during the course of an ongoing epidemic.

Optimal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation using real-time seroprevalence estimates in Rhode Island and Massachusetts

As three SARS-CoV-2 vaccines come to market in Europe and North America in the winter of 2020-2021, distribution networks will be in a race against a major epidemiological wave of SARS-CoV-2 that began in autumn 2020. Rapid and optimized vaccine allocation is critical during this time. With 95% efficacy reported for two of the vaccines, near-term public health needs require that distribution is prioritized to the elderly, health-care workers, teachers, essential workers, and individuals with co-morbidities putting them at risk of severe clinical progression. Here, we evaluate various age-based vaccine distributions using a validated mathematical model based on current epidemic trends in Rhode Island and Massachusetts. We allow for varying waning efficacy of vaccine-induced immunity, as this has not yet been measured. We account for the fact that known COVID-positive cases may not be included in the first round of vaccination. And, we account for current age-specific immune patterns in both states. We find that allocating a substantial proportion (> 75%) of vaccine supply to individuals over the age of 70 is optimal in terms of reducing total cumulative deaths through mid-2021. As we do not explicitly model other high mortality groups, this result on vaccine allocation applies to all groups at high risk of mortality if infected. Our analysis confirms that for an easily transmissible respiratory virus, allocating a large majority of vaccinations to groups with the highest mortality risk is optimal. Our analysis assumes that health systems during winter 2020-2021 have equal staffing and capacity to previous phases of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic; we do not consider the effects of understaffed hospitals or unvaccinated medical staff. Vaccinating only seronegative individuals avoids redundancy in vaccine use on individuals that may already be immune, and will result in 1% to 2% reductions in cumulative hospitalizations and deaths by mid-2021. Assuming high vaccination coverage (> 28%) and no major relaxations in distancing, masking, gathering size, or hygiene guidelines between now and spring 2021, our model predicts that a combination of vaccination and population immunity will lead to low or near-zero transmission levels by the second quarter of 2021.

SARS-CoV-2 epidemic after social and economic reopening in three US states reveals shifts in age structure and clinical characteristics

In the United States, state-level re-openings in spring 2020 presented an opportunity for the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. One important question during this time was whether human contact and mixing patterns could increase gradually without increasing viral transmission, the rationale being that new mixing patterns would likely be associated with improved distancing, masking, and hygiene practices. A second key question to follow during this time was whether clinical characteristics of the epidemic would improve after the initial surge of cases. Here, we analyze age-structured case, hospitalization, and death time series from three states - Rhode Island, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania - that had successful re-openings in May 2020 without summer waves of infection. Using a Bayesian inference framework on eleven daily data streams and flexible daily population contact parameters, we show that population-average mixing rates dropped by >50% during the lockdown period in March/April, and that the correlation between overall population mobility and transmission-capable mobility was broken in May as these states partially re-opened. We estimate the reporting rates (fraction of symptomatic cases reporting to health system) at 96.0% (RI), 72.1% (MA), and 75.5% (PA); in Rhode Island, when accounting for cases caught through general-population screening programs, the reporting rate estimate is 94.5%. We show that elderly individuals were less able to reduce contacts during the lockdown period when compared to younger individuals. Attack rate estimates through August 31 2020 are 6.4% (95% CI: 5.8% - 7.3%) of the total population infected for Rhode Island, 5.7% (95% CI: 5.0% - 6.8%) in Massachusetts, and 3.7% (95% CI: 3.1% - 4.5%) in Pennsylvania, with some validation available through published seroprevalence studies. Infection fatality rates (IFR) estimates for the spring epidemic are higher in our analysis (>2%) than previously reported values, likely resulting from the epidemics in these three states affecting the most vulnerable sub-populations, especially the most vulnerable of the [≥]80 age group.

Direct whole-genome deep-sequencing of human respiratory syncytial virus A and B from Vietnamese children identifies distinct patterns of inter- and intra-host evolution.

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in children ,2 years of age. Little is known about RSV intra-host genetic diversity over the course of infection or about the immune pressures that drive RSV molecular evolution. We performed whole-genome deep-sequencing on 53 RSV-positive samples (37 RSV subgroup A and 16 RSV subgroup B) collected from the upper airways of hospitalized children in southern Vietnam over two consecutive seasons. RSV A NA1 and RSV B BA9 were the predominant genotypes found in our samples, consistent with other reports on global RSV circulation during the same period. For both RSV A and B, the M gene was the most conserved, confirming its potential as a target for novel therapeutics. The G gene was the most variable and was the only gene under detectable positive selection. Further, positively selected sites inG were found in close proximity to and in some cases overlapped with predicted glycosylation motifs, suggesting that selection on amino acid glycosylation may drive viral genetic diversity. We further identified hotspots and coldspots of intra-host genetic diversity in the RSV genome, some of which may highlight previously unknown regions of functional importance.