Identifying long-term survivors and those at higher or lower risk of relapse among patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia using a high-dimensional mixture cure model.

Patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia (CN-AML) may harbor prognostically relevant gene mutations and thus be categorized into one of the three 2022 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) genetic-risk groups. Nevertheless, there remains heterogeneity with respect to relapse-free survival (RFS) within these genetic-risk groups. Our training set included 306 adults on Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology studies with de novo CN-AML aged < 60 years who achieved a complete remission and for whom centrally reviewed cytogenetics, RNA-sequencing, and gene mutation data from diagnostic samples were available (Alliance trial A152010). To overcome deficiencies of the Cox proportional hazards model when long-term survivors are present, we developed a penalized semi-parametric mixture cure model (MCM) to predict RFS where RNA-sequencing data comprised the predictor space. To validate model performance, we employed an independent test set from the German Acute Myeloid Leukemia Cooperative Group (AMLCG) consisting of 40 de novo CN-AML patients aged < 60 years who achieved a complete remission and had RNA-sequencing of their pre-treatment sample. For the training set, there was a significant non-zero cure fraction (p = 0.019) with 28.5% of patients estimated to be cured. Our MCM included 112 genes associated with cure, or long-term RFS, and 87 genes associated with latency, or shorter-term time-to-relapse. The area under the curve and C-statistic were respectively, 0.947 and 0.783 for our training set and 0.837 and 0.718 for our test set. We identified a novel, prognostically relevant molecular signature in CN-AML, which allows identification of patient subgroups independent of 2022 ELN genetic-risk groups.Trial registration Data from companion studies CALGB 8461, 9665 and 20202 (trials registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as, respectively, NCT00048958, NCT00899223, and NCT00900224) were obtained from Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology under data sharing study A152010. Data from the AMLCG 2008 trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01382147.

Sex-associated differences in frequencies and prognostic impact of recurrent genetic alterations in adult acute myeloid leukemia (Alliance, AMLCG).

Clinical outcome of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is associated with demographic and genetic features. Although the associations of acquired genetic alterations with patients' sex have been recently analyzed, their impact on outcome of female and male patients has not yet been comprehensively assessed. We performed mutational profiling, cytogenetic and outcome analyses in 1726 adults with AML (749 female and 977 male) treated on frontline Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology protocols. A validation cohort comprised 465 women and 489 men treated on frontline protocols of the German AML Cooperative Group. Compared with men, women more often had normal karyotype, FLT3-ITD, DNMT3A, NPM1 and WT1 mutations and less often complex karyotype, ASXL1, SRSF2, U2AF1, RUNX1, or KIT mutations. More women were in the 2022 European LeukemiaNet intermediate-risk group and more men in adverse-risk group. We found sex differences in co-occurring mutation patterns and prognostic impact of select genetic alterations. The mutation-associated splicing events and gene-expression profiles also differed between sexes. In patients aged <60 years, SF3B1 mutations were male-specific adverse outcome prognosticators. We conclude that sex differences in AML-associated genetic alterations and mutation-specific differential splicing events highlight the importance of patients' sex in analyses of AML biology and prognostication.

Outcome prediction by the 2022 European LeukemiaNet genetic-risk classification for adults with acute myeloid leukemia: an Alliance study.

Recently, the European LeukemiaNet (ELN) revised its genetic-risk classification of acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We categorized 1637 adults with AML treated with cytarabine/anthracycline regimens according to the 2022 and 2017 ELN classifications. Compared with the 2017 ELN classification, 2022 favorable group decreased from 40% to 35% and adverse group increased from 37% to 41% of patients. The 2022 genetic-risk groups seemed to accurately reflect treatment outcomes in all patients and patients aged <60 years, but in patients aged ≥60 years, relapse rates, disease-free (DFS) and overall (OS) survival were not significantly different between intermediate and adverse groups. In younger African-American patients, DFS and OS did not differ between intermediate-risk and adverse-risk patients nor did DFS between favorable and intermediate groups. In Hispanic patients, DFS and OS did not differ between favorable and intermediate groups. Outcome prediction abilities of 2022 and 2017 ELN classifications were similar. Among favorable-risk patients, myelodysplasia-related mutations did not affect patients with CEBPAbZIP mutations or core-binding factor AML, but changed risk assignment of NPM1-mutated/FLT3-ITD-negative patients to intermediate. NPM1-mutated patients with adverse-risk cytogenetic abnormalities were closer prognostically to the intermediate than adverse group. Our analyses both confirm and challenge prognostic significance of some of the newly added markers.

An inflammatory state remodels the immune microenvironment and improves risk stratification in acute myeloid leukemia.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a hematopoietic malignancy with poor prognosis and limited treatment options. Here we provide a comprehensive census of the bone marrow immune microenvironment in adult and pediatric patients with AML. We characterize unique inflammation signatures in a subset of AML patients, associated with inferior outcomes. We identify atypical B cells, a dysfunctional B-cell subtype enriched in patients with high-inflammation AML, as well as an increase in CD8+GZMK+ and regulatory T cells, accompanied by a reduction in T-cell clonal expansion. We derive an inflammation-associated gene score (iScore) that associates with poor survival outcomes in patients with AML. Addition of the iScore refines current risk stratifications for patients with AML and may enable identification of patients in need of more aggressive treatment. This work provides a framework for classifying patients with AML based on their immune microenvironment and a rationale for consideration of the inflammatory state in clinical settings.

High-dimensional genomic feature selection with the ordered stereotype logit model.

For many high-dimensional genomic and epigenomic datasets, the outcome of interest is ordinal. While these ordinal outcomes are often thought of as the observed cutpoints of some latent continuous variable, some ordinal outcomes are truly discrete and are comprised of the subjective combination of several factors. The nonlinear stereotype logistic model, which does not assume proportional odds, was developed for these 'assessed' ordinal variables. It has previously been extended to the frequentist high-dimensional feature selection setting, but the Bayesian framework provides some distinct advantages in terms of simultaneous uncertainty quantification and variable selection. Here, we review the stereotype model and Bayesian variable selection methods and demonstrate how to combine them to select genomic features associated with discrete ordinal outcomes. We compared the Bayesian and frequentist methods in terms of variable selection performance. We additionally applied the Bayesian stereotype method to an acute myeloid leukemia RNA-sequencing dataset to further demonstrate its variable selection abilities by identifying features associated with the European LeukemiaNet prognostic risk score.

The Impact of Inflammation-Induced Tumor Plasticity during Myeloid Transformation.

Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) is an aging-associated condition characterized by the clonal outgrowth of mutated preleukemic cells. Individuals with CH are at an increased risk of developing hematopoietic malignancies. Here, we describe a novel animal model carrying a recurrent TET2 missense mutation frequently found in patients with CH and leukemia. In a fashion similar to CH, animals show signs of disease late in life when they develop a wide range of myeloid neoplasms, including acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Using single-cell transcriptomic profiling of the bone marrow, we show that disease progression in aged animals correlates with an enhanced inflammatory response and the emergence of an aberrant inflammatory monocytic cell population. The gene signature characteristic of this inflammatory population is associated with poor prognosis in patients with AML. Our study illustrates an example of collaboration between a genetic lesion found in CH and inflammation, leading to transformation and the establishment of blood neoplasms. SIGNIFICANCE: Progression from a preleukemic state to transformation, in the presence of TET2 mutations, is coupled with the emergence of inflammation and a novel population of inflammatory monocytes. Genes characteristic of this inflammatory population are associated with the worst prognosis in patients with AML. These studies connect inflammation to progression to leukemia. See related commentary by Pietras and DeGregori, p. 2234 . This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 2221.

High early death rates, treatment resistance, and short survival of Black adolescents and young adults with AML.

Survival of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is inversely associated with age, but the impact of race on outcomes of adolescent and young adult (AYA; range, 18-39 years) patients is unknown. We compared survival of 89 non-Hispanic Black and 566 non-Hispanic White AYA patients with AML treated on frontline Cancer and Leukemia Group B/Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology protocols. Samples of 327 patients (50 Black and 277 White) were analyzed via targeted sequencing. Integrated genomic profiling was performed on select longitudinal samples. Black patients had worse outcomes, especially those aged 18 to 29 years, who had a higher early death rate (16% vs 3%; P=.002), lower complete remission rate (66% vs 83%; P=.01), and decreased overall survival (OS; 5-year rates: 22% vs 51%; P<.001) compared with White patients. Survival disparities persisted across cytogenetic groups: Black patients aged 18 to 29 years with non-core-binding factor (CBF)-AML had worse OS than White patients (5-year rates: 12% vs 44%; P<.001), including patients with cytogenetically normal AML (13% vs 50%; P<.003). Genetic features differed, including lower frequencies of normal karyotypes and NPM1 and biallelic CEBPA mutations, and higher frequencies of CBF rearrangements and ASXL1, BCOR, and KRAS mutations in Black patients. Integrated genomic analysis identified both known and novel somatic variants, and relative clonal stability at relapse. Reduced response rates to induction chemotherapy and leukemic clone persistence suggest a need for different treatment intensities and/or modalities in Black AYA patients with AML. Higher early death rates suggest a delay in diagnosis and treatment, calling for systematic changes to patient care.

Controlled variable selection in Weibull mixture cure models for high-dimensional data.

Medical breakthroughs in recent years have led to cures for many diseases. The mixture cure model (MCM) is a type of survival model that is often used when a cured fraction exists. Many have sought to identify genomic features associated with a time-to-event outcome which requires variable selection strategies for high-dimensional spaces. Unfortunately, currently few variable selection methods exist for MCMs especially when there are more predictors than samples. This study develops high-dimensional penalized Weibull MCMs, which allow for identification of prognostic factors associated with both cure status and/or survival. We demonstrated how such models may be estimated using two different iterative algorithms. The model-X knockoffs method was combined with these algorithms to control the false discovery rate (FDR) in variable selection. Through extensive simulation studies, our penalized MCMs have been shown to outperform alternative methods on multiple metrics and achieve high statistical power with FDR being controlled. In an acute myeloid leukemia (AML) application with gene expression data, our proposed approach identified 14 genes associated with potential cure and 12 genes with time-to-relapse, which may help inform treatment decisions for AML patients.

Clinical and molecular relevance of genetic variants in the non-coding transcriptome of patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia.

Expression levels of long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) have been shown to associate with clinical outcome of patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia (CN-AML). However, the frequency and clinical significance of genetic variants in the nucleotide sequences of lncRNA in AML patients is unknown. Herein, we analyzed total RNA sequencing data of 377 younger adults (aged <60 years) with CN-AML, who were comprehensively characterized with regard to clinical outcome. We used available genomic databases and stringent filters to annotate genetic variants unequivocally located in the non-coding transcriptome of AML patients. We detected 981 variants, which are recurrently present in lncRNA that are expressed in leukemic blasts. Among these variants, we identified a cytosine-to-thymidine variant in the lncRNA RP5-1074L1.4 and a cytosine-to-thymidine variant in the lncRNA SNHG15, which independently associated with longer survival of CN-AML patients. The presence of the SNHG15 cytosine-to-thymidine variant was also found to associate with better outcome in an independent dataset of CN-AML patients, despite differences in treatment protocols and RNA sequencing techniques. In order to gain biological insights, we cloned and overexpressed both wild-type and variant versions of the SNHG15 lncRNA. In keeping with its negative prognostic impact, overexpression of the wild-type SNHG15 associated with higher proliferation rate of leukemic blasts when compared with the cytosine-to-thymidine variant. We conclude that recurrent genetic variants of lncRNA that are expressed in the leukemic blasts of CN-AML patients have prognostic and potential biological significance.

Molecular, clinical, and prognostic implications of PTPN11 mutations in acute myeloid leukemia.

Prognostic factors associated with chemotherapy outcomes in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) are extensively reported, and one gene whose mutation is recognized as conferring resistance to several newer targeted therapies is protein tyrosine phosphatase non-receptor type 11 (PTPN11). The broader clinical implications of PTPN11 mutations in AML are still not well understood. The objective of this study was to determine which cytogenetic abnormalities and gene mutations co-occur with PTPN11 mutations and how PTPN11 mutations affect outcomes of patients treated with intensive chemotherapy. We studied 1725 patients newly diagnosed with AML (excluding acute promyelocytic leukemia) enrolled onto the Cancer and Leukemia Group B/Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology trials. In 140 PTPN11-mutated patient samples, PTPN11 most commonly co-occurred with mutations in NPM1, DNMT3A, and TET2. PTPN11 mutations were relatively common in patients with an inv(3)(q21q26)/t(3;3)(q21;q26) and a normal karyotype but were very rare in patients with typical complex karyotype and core-binding factor AML. Mutations in the N-terminal SH2 domain of PTPN11 were associated with a higher early death rate than those in the phosphatase domain. PTPN11 mutations did not affect outcomes of NPM1-mutated patients, but these patients were less likely to have co-occurring kinase mutations (ie, FLT3-ITD), suggesting activation of overlapping signaling pathways. However, in AML patients with wild-type NPM1, PTPN11 mutations were associated with adverse patient outcomes, providing a rationale to study the biology and treatment approaches in this molecular group. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00048958 (CALGB 8461), #NCT00899223 (CALGB 9665), and #NCT00900224 (CALGB 20202).

Precision oncology in AML: validation of the prognostic value of the knowledge bank approach and suggestions for improvement.

Recently, a novel knowledge bank (KB) approach to predict outcomes of individual patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) was developed using unbiased machine learning. To validate its prognostic value, we analyzed 1612 adults with de novo AML treated on Cancer and Leukemia Group B front-line trials who had pretreatment clinical, cytogenetics, and mutation data on 81 leukemia/cancer-associated genes available. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC) to evaluate the predictive values of the KB algorithm and other risk classifications. The KB algorithm predicted 3-year overall survival (OS) probability in the entire patient cohort (AUCKB = 0.799), and both younger (< 60 years) (AUCKB = 0.747) and older patients (AUCKB = 0.770). The KB algorithm predicted non-remission death (AUCKB = 0.860) well but was less accurate in predicting relapse death (AUCKB = 0.695) and death in first complete remission (AUCKB = 0.603). The KB algorithm's 3-year OS predictive value was higher than that of the 2017 European LeukemiaNet (ELN) classification (AUC2017ELN = 0.707, p < 0.001) and 2010 ELN classification (AUC2010ELN = 0.721, p < 0.001) but did not differ significantly from that of the 17-gene stemness score (AUC17-gene = 0.732, p = 0.10). Analysis of additional cytogenetic and molecular markers not included in the KB algorithm revealed that taking into account atypical complex karyotype, infrequent recurrent balanced chromosome rearrangements and mutational status of the SAMHD1, AXL and NOTCH1 genes may improve the KB algorithm. We conclude that the KB algorithm has a high predictive value that is higher than those of the 2017 and 2010 ELN classifications. Inclusion of additional genetic features might refine the KB algorithm.

A precision medicine classification for treatment of acute myeloid leukemia in older patients.

BACKGROUND: Older patients (≥ 60 years) with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) often have multiple, sequentially acquired, somatic mutations that drive leukemogenesis and are associated with poor outcome. Beat AML is a Leukemia and Lymphoma Society-sponsored, multicenter umbrella study that algorithmically segregates AML patients based upon cytogenetic and dominant molecular abnormalities (variant allele frequencies (VAF) ≥ 0.2) into different cohorts to select for targeted therapies. During the conception of the Beat AML design, a historical dataset was needed to help in the design of the genomic algorithm for patient assignment and serve as the basis for the statistical design of individual genomic treatment substudies for the Beat AML study. METHODS: We classified 563 newly diagnosed older AML patients treated with standard intensive chemotherapy on trials conducted by Cancer and Leukemia Group B based on the same genomic algorithm and assessed clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Our classification identified core-binding factor and NPM1-mutated/FLT3-ITD-negative groups as having the best outcomes, with 30-day early death (ED) rates of 0 and 20%, respectively, and median overall survival (OS) of > 1 year and 3-year OS rates of ≥ 20%. All other genomic groups had ED rates of 17-42%, median OS ≤ 1 year and 3-year OS rates of ≤ 15%. CONCLUSIONS: By classifying patients through this genomic algorithm, outcomes were poor and not unexpected from a non-algorithmic, non-dominant VAF approach. The exception is 30-day ED rate typically is not available for intensive induction for individual genomic groups and therefore difficult to compare outcomes with targeted therapeutics. This Alliance data supported the use of this algorithm for patient assignment at the initiation of the Beat AML study. This outcome data was also used for statistical design for Beat AML substudies for individual genomic groups to determine goals for improvement from intensive induction and hopefully lead to more rapid approval of new therapies. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: NCT00048958 (CALGB 8461), NCT00900224 (CALGB 20202), NCT00003190 (CALGB 9720), NCT00085124 (CALGB 10201), NCT00742625 (CALGB 10502), NCT01420926 (CALGB 11002), NCT00039377 (CALGB 10801), and NCT01253070 (CALGB 11001).

Genomic analysis of cellular hierarchy in acute myeloid leukemia using ultrasensitive LC-FACSeq.

Hematopoiesis is hierarchical, and it has been postulated that acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is organized similarly with leukemia stem cells (LSCs) residing at the apex. Limited cells acquired by fluorescence activated cell sorting in tandem with targeted amplicon-based sequencing (LC-FACSeq) enables identification of mutations in small subpopulations of cells, such as LSCs. Leveraging this, we studied clonal compositions of immunophenotypically-defined compartments in AML through genomic and functional analyses at diagnosis, remission and relapse in 88 AML patients. Mutations involving DNA methylation pathways, transcription factors and spliceosomal machinery did not differ across compartments, while signaling pathway mutations were less frequent in putative LSCs. We also provide insights into TP53-mutated AML by demonstrating stepwise acquisition of mutations beginning from the preleukemic hematopoietic stem cell stage. In 10 analyzed cases, acquisition of additional mutations and del(17p) led to genetic and functional heterogeneity within the LSC pool with subclones harboring varying degrees of clonogenic potential. Finally, we use LC-FACSeq to track clonal evolution in serial samples, which can also be a powerful tool to direct targeted therapy against measurable residual disease. Therefore, studying clinically significant small subpopulations of cells can improve our understanding of AML biology and offers advantages over bulk sequencing to monitor the evolution of disease.

Gene expression signature predicts relapse in adult patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia.

Although ∼80% of adult patients with cytogenetically normal acute myeloid leukemia (CN-AML) achieve a complete remission (CR), more than half of them relapse. Better identification of patients who are likely to relapse can help to inform clinical decisions. We performed RNA sequencing on pretreatment samples from 268 adults with de novo CN-AML who were younger than 60 years of age and achieved a CR after induction treatment with standard "7+3" chemotherapy. After filtering for genes whose expressions were associated with gene mutations known to impact outcome (ie, CEBPA, NPM1, and FLT3-internal tandem duplication [FLT3-ITD]), we identified a 10-gene signature that was strongly predictive of patient relapse (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC], 0.81). The signature consisted of 7 coding genes (GAS6, PSD3, PLCB4, DEXI, JMY, NRP1, C10orf55) and 3 long noncoding RNAs. In multivariable analysis, the 10-gene signature was strongly associated with relapse (P < .001), after adjustment for the FLT3-ITD, CEBPA, and NPM1 mutational status. Validation of the expression signature in an independent patient set from The Cancer Genome Atlas showed the signature's strong predictive value, with AUC = 0.78. Implementation of the 10-gene signature into clinical prognostic stratification could be useful for identifying patients who are likely to relapse.

Poor Survival and Differential Impact of Genetic Features of Black Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

Clinical outcome of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is associated with cytogenetic and molecular factors and patient demographics (e.g., age and race). We compared survival of 25,523 non-Hispanic Black and White adults with AML using Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program data and performed mutational profiling of 1,339 patients with AML treated on frontline Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology (Alliance) protocols. Black patients had shorter survival than White patients, both in SEER and in the setting of Alliance clinical trials. The disparity was especially pronounced in Black patients <60 years, after adjustment for socioeconomic (SEER) and molecular (Alliance) factors. Black race was an independent prognosticator of poor survival. Gene mutation profiles showed fewer NPM1 and more IDH2 mutations in younger Black patients. Overall survival of younger Black patients was adversely affected by IDH2 mutations and FLT3-ITD, but, in contrast to White patients, was not improved by NPM1 mutations. SIGNIFICANCE: We show that young Black patients have not benefited as much as White patients from recent progress in AML treatment in the United States. Our data suggest that both socioeconomic factors and differences in disease biology contribute to the survival disparity and need to be urgently addressed.See related commentary by Vyas, p. 540.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 521.