Mortality Disparities Among Arrestees by Race, Sentencing Disposition, and Place.

Importance: Understanding mortality disparities among justice system-involved populations is crucial for public health and policy, especially for marginalized racial groups such as American Indian/Alaska Native persons. Objective: To examine racial disparities in mortality within the broader justice system-involved population in South Dakota, focusing on different sentencing dispositions and the role of place. Design, Setting, and Participants: This observational study used administrative criminal records linked to mortality data from January 2000 to December 2016. The statewide data linked data from South Dakota Attorney General's Office and South Dakota Department of Health. Individuals aged 18 years and older with arrests were analyzed in this population-based sample. Data were analyzed from August 1, 2022, to July 30, 2023. Exposure: Sentencing dispositions were categorized as arrest only, fine, probation, jail, and prison. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were mortality rates (both all-cause and cause-specific) calculated using Poisson regression models, adjusted for demographic and county variables. Results: Of 182 472 individuals with 422 987 arrests, the study sample included 29 690 American Indian/Alaska Native arrestees (17 900 [60%] male; mean [SD] age, 29.4 [11.0] years) and 142 248 White arrestees (103 471 [73%] male; mean [SD] age, 32.6 [12.9] years). American Indian/Alaska Native persons accounted for 16% of arrestees and 26% of arrests, but only 9% of the population in South Dakota. Across dispositions, mortality risk was greater for White individuals sentenced to probation, jail, and prison relative to White individuals who were arrested only. In terms of racial disparities, all-cause mortality risk was 2.37 (95% CI, 1.95-2.88) times higher for American Indian/Alaska Native than White arrestees in the arrest-only disposition. Disparities persisted across all dispositions but narrowed substantially for probation and prison. Results were similar for cause-specific mortality risk, except for cancer risk. In urban areas, mortality risk was 2.70 (95% CI, 1.29-2.44) times greater for American Indian/Alaska Native individuals relative to White individuals among those with arrest-only dispositions. Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based observational study, mortality risk and associated racial disparities among justice system-involved individuals differed substantially across dispositions and places, underscoring the need for public health interventions tailored to these factors. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms through which sentencing and place shape these disparities.

Relationships of State Alcohol Policy Environments With Homicides and Suicides.

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol use is involved in a large proportion of homicides and suicides each year in the U.S., but there is limited evidence on how policies targeting alcohol influence violence in the U.S. CONTEXT: Extant studies generally focus on individual policies in isolation of each other. This study examines the impacts of changes in states' alcohol policy restrictions on overall homicide and suicide rates and firearm-related homicide and suicide rates using a holistic measure of states' alcohol policy environments. METHODS: Using a composite measure of state-level alcohol policies (Alcohol Policy Scale) and data from the National Vital Statistics System from 2002 to 2018, this study applied a Bayesian time series model to estimate the impacts of alcohol policy changes on overall and firearm-involved homicide and suicide rates. The analysis was performed in 2023 and 2024. RESULTS: A 1 SD change in the Alcohol Policy Scale was associated with a 6% decline in homicide rates both overall (incident rate ratio=0.94; 95% credible interval = 0.89, 1.00) and for firearm homicides specifically (incident rate ratio=0.94, 95% CI=0.88, 1.01). There was no clear association of alcohol policy with suicides. The model predicts that a nationwide increase in alcohol restrictions equivalent to a shift from the 25th to 75th percentile of the scale's distribution would result in almost 1,200 fewer homicides annually. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in the restrictiveness of state-level alcohol policies are associated with reductions in homicides. More restrictive alcohol policy environments may offer an opportunity to reduce homicides.

Effects of restricting alcohol sales on fatal violence: Evidence from Sunday sales bans.

INTRODUCTION: Homicides and suicides are the second- and third-leading causes of death among young people (aged 10-24) in the US. While a substantial share of these deaths involve alcohol, evidence is needed on whether specific alcohol policies, such as day-based sales restrictions, help prevent these deaths. METHODS: We constructed total and firearm-related homicide and suicide counts by state, year, and day-of-week from the Multiple Cause of Death Micro-data 1990-2019. Repeals of Sunday bans were taken from the Alcohol Policy Information System. Two-way fixed effects Poisson models with standard errors clustered at state-level and population offset control for state, year and day-of-the-week fixed effects and state time-varying covariates. RESULTS: Repealing Sunday bans is associated with an increase in homicides (IRR=1.125; 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.02-1.24) and firearm homicides (IRR=1.17; 95% CI:1.03-1.33). Analyses by day-of-the-week show significant associations with homicides not only on Sundays, but also other days, consistent with delays in death. There was no significant relationship for suicides. CONCLUSION: Restricting alcohol availability may prove a useful policy tool to reduce homicides, given that day-based restrictions are associated with changes in deaths rather than only shifting across days-of-the-week.

Association of Place With Adolescent Obesity.

Importance: Despite strong evidence linking place and obesity risk, the extent to which this link is causal or reflects sorting into places is unclear. Objective: To examine the association of place with adolescents' obesity and explore potential causal pathways, such as shared environments and social contagion. Design, Setting, and Participants: This natural experiment study used the periodic reassignment of US military servicemembers to installations as a source of exogenous variation in exposure to difference places to estimate the association between place and obesity risk. The study analyzed data from the Military Teenagers Environments, Exercise, and Nutrition Study, a cohort of adolescents in military families recruited from 2013 through 2014 from 12 large military installations in the US and followed up until 2018. Individual fixed-effects models were estimated that examined whether adolescents' exposure to increasingly obesogenic places over time was associated with increases in body mass index (BMI) and probability of overweight or obesity. These data were analyzed from October 15, 2021, through March 10, 2023. Exposure: Adult obesity rate in military parent's assigned installation county was used as a summary measure of all place-specific obesogenic influences. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were BMI, overweight or obesity (BMI in the 85th percentile or higher), and obesity (BMI in the 95th percentile or higher). Time at installation residence and off installation residence were moderators capturing the degree of exposure to the county. County-level measures of food access, physical activity opportunities, and socioeconomic characteristics captured shared environments. Results: A cohort of 970 adolescents had a baseline mean age of 13.7 years and 512 were male (52.8%). A 5 percentage point-increase over time in the county obesity rate was associated with a 0.19 increase in adolescents' BMI (95% CI, 0.02-0.37) and a 0.02-unit increase in their probability of obesity (95% CI, 0-0.04). Shared environments did not explain these associations. These associations were stronger for adolescents with time at installation of 2 years or longer vs less than 2 years for BMI (0.359 vs. 0.046; P value for difference in association = .02) and for probability of overweight or obesity (0.058 vs. 0.007; P value for difference association = .02), and for adolescents who lived off installation vs on installation for BMI (0.414 vs. -0.025; P value for association = .01) and for probability of obesity (0.033 vs. -0.007; P value for association = .02). Conclusion and Relevance: In this study, the link between place and adolescents' obesity risk is not explained by selection or shared environments. The study findings suggest social contagion as a potential causal pathway.

Impact of built, social, and economic environments on adolescent obesity and related health behaviors.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate the effects of the built, social, and economic environments on adolescent obesity and related behaviors. METHODS: Exploiting quasi-exogenous variation in military families' geographic location, this study estimated intent-to-treat models of the association between the assigned installation's county environments and adolescents' (mean age 13.5 years) self-reported and model-corrected BMI, overweight or obesity status, and self-reported diet and exercise. Three indices for the built, social, and economic environments characterized county-level environments (higher value implies more advantageous environments) based on 19 indicators. Multivariate linear and logistic models were estimated on the full sample (N = 1111) and on subsamples with greater exposure based on time (n = 682) and off-installation residence (n = 604). RESULTS: Exposure to more advantageous built environments for more than 2 years was associated with lower probabilities of obesity (-0.18; 95% CI: -0.34 to -0.026) and overweight or obesity (-0.34; 95% CI: -0.56 to -0.12) and was associated with lower BMI z scores (-0.76; 95% CI: -1.45 to -0.02). Results for adolescents living off-installation were similar. More advantageous built environments were also associated with lower consumption of unhealthy foods, but not with physical activity. Social and economic environments were not associated with any outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The built environment, but not social and economic environments, was a strong predictor of adolescents' BMI, overweight or obesity status, and eating behaviors.

Association of an Alcohol Abstinence Program With Mortality in Individuals Arrested for Driving While Alcohol Impaired.

This study examines the associations of 24/7 sobriety programs with reduced alcohol-involved offenses.

Heterogeneity in place effects on health: The case of time preferences and adolescent obesity.

We leverage a natural experiment in combination with data on adolescents' time preferences to assess whether there is heterogeneity in place effects on adolescent obesity. We exploit the plausibly exogenous assignment of military servicemembers, and consequently their children, to different installations to identify place effects. Adolescents' time preferences are measured by a validated survey scale. Using the obesity rate in the assigned installation county as a summary measure of its obesity-related environments, we show that exposure to counties with higher obesity rates increases the likelihood of obesity among less patient adolescents but not among their more patient counterparts.

A Natural Experiment to Test the Effect of Sanction Certainty and Celerity on Substance-Impaired Driving: North Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program.

OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the deterrent effect of a program that increases the certainty and celerity of sanction for arrestees ordered to abstain from alcohol and other drugs on substance-impaired driving arrests. METHODS: We examine participant compliance with orders to abstain from alcohol and other drug use via breathalyzer, body-worn continuous alcohol monitoring (CAM) devices, transdermal drug patches, and urinalyses. We then evaluate the impact of the 24/7 Sobriety program on substance-impaired driving arrests. Using variation across counties in the timing of program implementation in North Dakota as a natural experiment, we use differences-in-differences fixed effects Poisson regressions to measure the program's effect on county-level arrests for substance-impaired driving. RESULTS: Over half of participants ordered to abstain from substance use complete 24/7 Sobriety without a detected substance use event. At the county level, the program is associated with a 9 percent reduction in substance-impaired driving arrests after accounting for the impact of oil exploration in the Bakken region, law enforcement intensity, alcohol availability, whether the state's large universities were in session, and socio-demographic characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest frequent monitoring combined with increased sanction celerity deters substance use-involved crime. While the results are generally consistent with an earlier study of 24/7 Sobriety in another state, differences in the study outcome measures and implementation choices across states make direct comparisons difficult. More can be learned by conducting randomized controlled trials that vary time on program, testing technology, and/or level of sanction.

Estimating the impact of state cigarette tax rates on smoking behavior: Addressing endogeneity using a natural experiment.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette excise taxes are a well-established policy lever for reducing tobacco use. However, estimating the effect of taxes on smoking behavior can be confounded by endogeneity concerns such as selection. This study leverages a unique natural experiment -compulsory relocation of U.S. military service members to installations - to estimate the relationship between state cigarette taxes and smoking behavior without concerns about selection into environments. METHODS: The current study uses data from the Department of Defense's 2011 Health-Related Behaviors Survey and 2011 state cigarette excise taxes from the CDC STATE System. Logistic and Poisson regression analyses estimate the cross-sectional associations between state cigarette excise taxes and the following smoking behaviors: current cigarette smoking, frequency of smoking, heaviness of consumption, and cigarette cessation among individuals who smoked while at the current installation. RESULTS: Higher taxes are associated with lower odds of current cigarette smoking (AOR = 0.94; 95 % CI: 0.89-0.98), fewer smoking days per month among current cigarette smokers (IRR = 0.98, 95 % CI 0.97-0.996), and higher likelihood of quitting smoking among individuals who had smoked at their current installation (AOR = 1.14, 95 % CI 1.05-1.25). Taxes are not associated with the number of cigarettes smoked per day among current smokers. CONCLUSIONS: Exogenous assignment to installations in states with higher cigarette taxes is associated with lower likelihood of smoking and greater likelihood of quitting. Findings provide novel evidence in support of a causal impact of cigarette taxes on lower smoking levels among adults.

Exposure to new smoking environments and individual-level cigarette smoking behavior: Insights from exogenous assignment of military personnel.

Despite overall declines in cigarette smoking prevalence in the United States (U.S.) in the past several decades, smoking rates remain highly variable across geographic areas. Past work suggests that smoking norms and exposure to other smokers in one's social environment may correlate with smoking risk and cessation, but little is known about how exposure to other smokers in one's community is causally linked to smoking behavior - in part due to endogeneity and inability to randomly assign individuals to different 'smoking environments.' The goal of this study was to evaluate how exposure to localities with high population-level smoking prevalence affects individual-level cigarette smoking behaviors, including quitting. The study addresses key limitations in the literature by leveraging a unique natural experiment: the plausibly exogenous compulsory assignment of military personnel to installations. Logistic and multivariate regressions estimated cross-sectional associations between smoking/quitting behaviors and our proxy for social environments for smoking, county-level smoking prevalence (CSP). Across 563 U.S. counties, CSP ranged from 3.8 to 37.9%. Among the full sample, a 10 percentage point increase in CSP was associated with an 11% greater likelihood of smoking. In subgroup analyses, young adults, women, those without children in the household, and risk/sensation-seekers were more likely to smoke and less likely to quit when exposed to counties with higher CSP. Relocation to areas with high population-level smoking prevalence may increase likelihood of smoking and impede quitting, and may disparately affect some population subgroups. Findings provide novel evidence that community smoking environments affect adult smoking risk and underscore a need for sustained, targeted efforts to reduce smoking in areas where prevalence remains high.

Adolescent Time and Risk Preferences: Measurement, Determinants and Field Consequences.

We use experimental and survey measures to evaluate the time and risk preferences of nearly 500 adolescents aged 16-19 years old. We find that survey questions about time and risk preferences are weakly correlated with corresponding experiments in which participants trade-off monetary rewards. We find potentially substantial inter-generational transfer of time and risk preferences: parent time and risk preferences are strongly predictive of adolescent preferences for both survey and experimental measures. There are also interesting heterogeneities: girls are less risk seeking and more patient than boys when risk and time preferences are measured via surveys. Interestingly, the survey measures have more predictive power for field outcomes than the experimental measures. Higher patience as measured by the survey is significantly associated with lower body mass index (BMI), less time spent on sedentary activities, more time spent on physical activity and lower consumption of fast food and sweets.

The impact of state policies for school-based BMI/fitness assessments on children's BMI outcomes in rural versus urban schools: Evidence from a natural experiment.

Childhood obesity remains a public health crisis because of its alarming prevalence and potential for costly long-term health consequences, especially among rural children. Schools are considered natural loci for policies to combat obesity because children spend most of their active hours and consume a substantial share of their calories, at school. Recent state policy efforts have involved measuring children's BMI and/or fitness to notify parents or inform surveillance efforts, but the empirical evidence to date is far from definitive. This study leverages plausibly exogenous assignment of military families as a natural experiment to assess the association of such polices with children's BMI and obesogenic behaviors. The sample is stratified by urbanicity because of the likely differences in obesity prevalence and in environments necessary to support healthy lifestyles. Data were collected in 2013-2014 and analyzed in 2018-9. The policies were associated with lower odds of overweight (OR: 0.422; CI: 0.251-0.708) and at-risk of overweight (OR: 0.360; CI: 0.161-0.801) among children in rural, but not urban, schools. The policies were also associated with greater activity levels and less frequent intake of unhealthy foods, particularly among children attending rural schools. Results were robust to stratification based on urbanicity of the installation versus school, omission of family covariates, and other sensitivity analyses. Falsification checks on children's height, parental BMI outcomes, home food environments and neighborhood environments indicate findings are not driven by selection. BMI assessment policies were associated with children's BMI outcomes and health behaviors in rural, but not urban schools.

A novel approach to anthropometric assessment for geographically dispersed samples: A pilot study.

Measurements by trained personnel are the criterion standard for assessments of body mass index (BMI) and obesity. Yet, in-person measurements are less practical for studies of geographically dispersed samples. Recent advances in technology and the success of telehealth suggests that videoconferencing may be promising. We conducted a pilot study to examine the validity of videoconference-assisted measurements (VCAM) relative to in-person measurements by trained staff. We collected height, weight, percent body fat and waist circumference measurements using VCAM and staff measured in a convenience sample of 50 greater Los Angeles participants. We calculated relative standardized differences, and agreement between the two approaches using Pearson correlation and Bland-Altman plots. The small magnitude of differences (effect sizes <0.03), and high agreement suggested that the two approaches produce similar values. Thus, completing height and weight measurements through videoconference may be a valid and cost-effective approach, especially for geographically dispersed samples.

School Food and Beverage Availability and Children's Diet, Purchasing, and Obesity: Evidence From a Natural Experiment.

PURPOSE: Existing evidence on relationships between school food environments and children's in-school purchases, dietary behaviors, and body composition is based on observational studies that are vulnerable to residential selection bias. METHODS: This study leveraged exogenous variation in school environments generated by the natural experiment due to military parents' assignment to installations. We analyzed 1,010 child-wave observations from the Military Teenagers Environments, Exercise, and Nutrition Study collected during 2013-2015. Using multiple linear and logistic regression, we examined whether the number of competitive food and beverage (CF&B) items available for purchase in school, overall and by type (unhealthy, healthy, neutral), was associated with in-school food purchases, dietary behaviors, and body mass index (BMI) outcomes. Covariates included child and family characteristics and the healthiness of the home food environment. RESULTS: Unhealthy item availability was positively associated with purchasing any sweets (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.30; p < .01), snacks (AOR, 1.23; p < .01), and sugar-sweetened beverages (AOR, 1.19; p = .01). However, there were no significant associations with overall food and beverage intake (e.g., sweets, soda) nor BMI outcomes. The home food environment was significantly associated with all outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Access to unhealthy CF&B items may influence in-school purchases but does not appear to influence overall dietary behaviors and BMI outcomes. Substitution of caloric intake across locations within versus outside of school may play a role in explaining why purchases were associated with unhealthy CF&B availability but overall diet and downstream BMI were not.

Neighborhood Environments and Physical Activity: A Longitudinal Study of Adolescents in a Natural Experiment.

INTRODUCTION: Experimental and quasi-experimental evidence on the relationship between adolescents' physical activity and their physical activity environments is scarce. This study provides natural experimental evidence using within-person longitudinal variation in physical activity environments resulting from the compulsory re-assignment of military families to new installations, termed permanent changes of station. METHODS: Adolescents in Army families (N=749) reported usual weekly minutes of moderate and vigorous physical activity in 2013-2015. Objective measures of the physical activity environment, including the number of fitness and recreation facilities within 2 miles, were constructed for adolescents' neighborhoods using GIS methods. In 2017, individual-level fixed-effects models with and without a comparison group estimated the relationship between usual weekly minutes of physical activity and physical activity environments among permanent changes of station movers using within-person variation. RESULTS: Increases in opportunities for physical activity were significantly and positively associated with increases in total (p<0.05) and vigorous physical activity (p<0.05) among adolescents who experienced permanent changes of station moves. The relationships were statistically significant for permanent changes of station movers living off-installation (p<0.05) and hence subject to greater variation in physical activity environments and those with more time to adjust to their new environments (p<0.05). Significant findings persisted when broader measures of physical activity environments were utilized. CONCLUSIONS: The decline in physical activity and alarming obesity levels during adolescence suggest that this age may represent an important opportunity to address the obesity epidemic. This study provides evidence that increasing opportunities for physical activity may be an important pathway to improving their levels of physical activity and, consequently, obesity.

Assessing Social Contagion in Body Mass Index, Overweight, and Obesity Using a Natural Experiment.

Importance: Little is known about whether the substantial clustering of obesity and overweight within social and geographic networks results from causal pathways, such as social contagion and shared environments, or from self-selection. Objectives: This study aimed to determine whether exposure to communities with higher rates of obesity increases the body mass index (BMI) of individuals, calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared, and their risk of being overweight or obese, and whether social contagion, shared environments, or self-selection can account for identified differences. Design, Setting, and Participants: This natural experiment study used the routine assignment of military service members to installations as a source of exogenous variation in exposure to communities with higher vs lower rates of obesity. The study, which used data collected by the Military Teenagers' Environments, Exercise, and Nutrition Study, examined families from 38 military installations around the United States to determine if individuals had higher BMI and greater odds of overweight and obesity when assigned to installations in counties with higher rates of obesity. The study also examined if the relationship persisted after controlling for shared built environments. The participants included 1 parent and 1 child aged 12 or 13 years from 1519 families of Army-enlisted personnel. Data analysis was completed from November 2016 to October 2017. Exposures: Adult obesity rate in the county where the assigned installation of the service member was located. Time at installation and location of residence (on-installation vs off-installation) were used to measure the degree of exposure. Main Outcomes and Measures: For parents, outcomes were BMI, overweight/obesity (BMI, ≥25) and obesity (BMI, ≥30). For children, outcomes were BMI z score, overweight/obesity (BMI percentile for age and sex, ≥85), and obesity (BMI percentile for age and sex, ≥95). These outcomes were based on self-reports for parents, self-reports and parent reports for all children, and anthropometric measurements for a subsample of children. Results: Members of 1519 families participated, including 1314 adults (of whom 740, or 56%, were fathers) and 1111 children (of whom 576, or 52%, were boys); anthropometric measurements were performed on 458 children. The sample was 40% white, 22% black, 24% Hispanic, and 14% other races/ethnicities. A 1-percentage point higher county obesity rate was associated with a higher BMI (a difference of 0.08; 95% CI, 0.02-0.13) and greater odds of obesity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08) in parents, and a higher BMI z score (0.01; 95% CI, 0.003-0.02) and greater odds of overweight/obesity (aOR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06) in children. The evidence supported stronger associations among families with more time at installation and off-installation residence. Associations persisted even after controlling for shared built environments. Conclusions and Relevance: Exposure to counties with higher rates of obesity was associated with higher BMI and higher odds of overweight and/or obesity in parents and children. There was no evidence to support self-selection or shared built environments as possible explanations, which suggests the presence of social contagion in obesity.

The Effect of State Competitive Food and Beverage Regulations on Childhood Overweight and Obesity.

PURPOSE: Policy efforts for combating childhood obesity have sought stronger state policies for regulating competitive foods and beverages (CF&Bs) available in schools. However, the evidence linking state policies to children's overall diet and body weight outcomes is limited and mixed, and experts have called for more rigorous studies that are able to address concerns about selection bias. The present study leverages a rare natural experiment where children in military families are "assigned" to different state policies, due to their military parent's periodic relocation, to examine whether state CF&B policies were associated with children's body mass index (BMI) and overweight or obesity. METHODS: We analyzed data from 894 children (12-13 years old) in army families attending public schools located near 25 installations across 23 states in 2013. State CF&B policy measures from the Bridging the Gap project were linked to the child data. Primary outcomes included BMI z-scores and indicator for overweight or obesity. For a subsample of children with self-reported food frequency measures, we also examined the link between state CF&B policies and overall diet. All regression analyses adjusted for a rich set of child and family covariates. RESULTS: Having strong or weak policies was significantly associated with lower BMI z-scores, lower odds of overweight or obesity, and better dietary outcomes, relative to no policy. CONCLUSIONS: A portfolio of policies that includes multiple strong policies is likely needed to observe any meaningful changes in BMI and obesity.