Tuberculosis in Ukrainian War Refugees and Migrants in the Czech Republic and Slovakia: A Molecular Epidemiological Study.

BACKGROUND: The war in Ukraine has led to significant migration to neighboring countries, raising public health concerns. Notable tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates in Ukraine emphasize the immediate requirement to prioritize approaches that interrupt the spread and prevent new infections. METHODS: We conducted a prospective genomic surveillance study to assess migration's impact on TB epidemiology in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from Ukrainian war refugees and migrants, collected from September 2021 to December 2022 were analyzed alongside 1574 isolates obtained from Ukraine, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. RESULTS: Our study revealed alarming results, with historically the highest number of Ukrainian tuberculosis patients detected in the host countries. The increasing number of cases of multidrug-resistant TB, significantly linked with Beijing lineage 2.2.1 (p < 0.0001), also presents substantial obstacles to control endeavors. The genomic analysis identified the three highly related genomic clusters, indicating the recent TB transmission among migrant populations. The largest clusters comprised war refugees diagnosed in the Czech Republic, TB patients from various regions of Ukraine, and incarcerated individuals diagnosed with pulmonary TB specialized facility in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, pointing to a national transmission sequence that has persisted for over 14 years. CONCLUSIONS: The data showed that most infections were likely the result of reactivation of latent disease or exposure to TB before migration rather than recent transmission occurring within the host country. However, close monitoring, appropriate treatment, careful surveillance, and social support are crucial in mitigating future risks, though there is currently no evidence of local transmission in EU countries.

A cost-effectiveness evaluation of latent tuberculosis infection screening of a migrant population in Malaysia.

To estimate the costs and benefits of screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in a migrant population in Malaysia. An economic model was developed from a Malaysian healthcare perspective to compare QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QuantiFERON) with the tuberculin skin test (TST). A decision tree was used to capture outcomes relating to LTBI screening followed by a Markov model that simulated the lifetime costs and benefits of the patient cohort. The Markov model did not capture the impact of secondary infections. The model included an R shiny interactive interface to allow adaptation to other scenarios and settings. QuantiFERON is both more effective and less costly than TST (dominant). Compared with QuantiFERON, the lifetime risk of developing active TB increases by approximately 40% for TST due to missed LTBI cases during screening (i.e. a higher number of false negative cases for TST). For a migrant population in Malaysia, QuantiFERON is cost-effective when compared with TST. Further research should consider targeted LTBI screening for migrants in Malaysia based on common risk factors.

A systematic review of cost-utility analyses of screening methods in latent tuberculosis infection in high-risk populations.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organisation (WHO) recommends that testing and treatment for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) should be undertaken in high-risk groups using either interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) or a tuberculin skin test (TST). As IGRAs are more expensive than TST, an assessment of the cost-effectiveness of IGRAs can guide decision makers on the most appropriate choice of test for different high-risk populations. This current review aimed to provide the most up to date evidence on the cost-effectiveness evidence on LTBI testing in high-risk groups-specifically evidence reporting the costs per QALY of different testing strategies. METHODS: A comprehensive search of databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and NHS-EED was undertaken from 2011 up to March 2021. Studies were screened and extracted by two independent reviewers. The study quality was assessed using the Bias in Economic Evaluation Checklist (ECOBIAS). A narrative synthesis of the included studies was undertaken. RESULTS: Thirty-two studies reported in thirty-three documents were included in this review. Quality of included studies was generally high, although there was a weakness across all studies referencing sources correctly and/or justifying choices of parameter values chosen or assumptions where parameter values were not available. Inclusions of IGRAs in testing strategies was consistently found across studies to be cost-effective but this result was sensitive to underlying LTBI prevalence rates. CONCLUSION: While some concerns remain about uncertainty in parameter values used across included studies, the evidence base since 2010 has grown with modelling approaches addressing the weakness pointed out in previous reviews but still reaching the same conclusion that IGRAs are likely to be cost-effective in high-income countries for high-risk populations. Evidence is also required on the cost-effectiveness of different strategies in low to middle income countries and countries with high TB burden.

Transcontinental spread and evolution of Mycobacterium tuberculosis W148 European/Russian clade toward extensively drug resistant tuberculosis.

Transmission-driven multi-/extensively drug resistant (M/XDR) tuberculosis (TB) is the largest single contributor to human mortality due to antimicrobial resistance. A few major clades of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex belonging to lineage 2, responsible for high prevalence of MDR-TB in Eurasia, show outstanding transnational distributions. Here, we determined factors underlying the emergence and epidemic spread of the W148 clade by genome sequencing and Bayesian demogenetic analyses of 720 isolates from 23 countries. We dated a common ancestor around 1963 and identified two successive epidemic expansions in the late 1980s and late 1990s, coinciding with major socio-economic changes in the post-Soviet Era. These population expansions favored accumulation of resistance mutations to up to 11 anti-TB drugs, with MDR evolving toward additional resistances to fluoroquinolones and second-line injectable drugs within 20 years on average. Timescaled haplotypic density analysis revealed that widespread acquisition of compensatory mutations was associated with transmission success of XDR strains. Virtually all W148 strains harbored a hypervirulence-associated ppe38 gene locus, and incipient recurrent emergence of prpR mutation-mediated drug tolerance was detected. The outstanding genetic arsenal of this geographically widespread M/XDR strain clade represents a "perfect storm" that jeopardizes the successful introduction of new anti-M/XDR-TB antibiotic regimens.

Urine biomarkers of pulmonary tuberculosis.

INTRODUCTION: Sputum-based tuberculosis diagnosis does not address the needs of certain categories of patients. Active development of a noninvasive urine-based diagnosis could provide an alternative approach. We reviewed publications covering more than 30 urine biomarkers proposed as significant for TB diagnosis. Analytical approaches were heterogeneous in design and methods; few studies on diagnostic outcome prediction described a formal specificity and sensitivity analysis. AREAS COVERED: This review describes studies of non-sputum diagnostic approaches of pulmonary TB based on urine using specific TB biomarkers. The search was performed until December 2021, using terms [Tuberculosis] + [urine] + [biomarkers] in PubMed and Cochrane databases. Publications concerning LAM urine diagnostics were excluded as they have been described elsewhere. EXPERT OPINION: Microbiological culture of sputum is considered to be the 'gold standard' diagnostic for pulmonary TB but the methodology is slow due to the slow growth of the TB bacteria. Urine provides a large volume of sample. Investigators have evaluated urine for either TB pathogen biomarkers or host biomarkers with some success as the review demonstrates. Detection sensitivity remains a significant problem. In future, combination of host and pathogen biomarkers could increase the sensitivity and specificity of TB diagnosis.

Accuracy of interferon gamma release assays for the COVID-19 immunity assessment.

Emerging evidence suggests that T-cells play a significant role in COVID-19 immunity both in the context of natural infection and vaccination. Easy to use IGRA assays including QFN SARS are considered attractive alternatives to more "traditional" but laborious methods for detection of SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell responses. In our Letter we are proposing explanations to an apparently lower than expected T-cell responses (44 % reactive individuals) reported by Krüttgen et al in a small cohort of healthy double vaccinated individuals. These results could have been affected by reporting raw optical density values instead of calculated Interferon-É£ concentrations which is supported by unexpectedly low mitogen responses in healthy individuals. This study highlights an importance of adhering to good laboratory practice principles as well as overall importance of accurate T-cell immunity assessment using IGRA assays.

The diagnostic performance of novel skin-based in-vivo tests for tuberculosis infection compared with purified protein derivative tuberculin skin tests and blood-based in vitro interferon-γ release assays: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Novel skin-based tests for tuberculosis infection might present suitable alternatives to current tests; however, diagnostic performance of new tests compared with the purified protein derivative-tuberculin skin test (TST) or interferon-γ release assays (IGRA) needs systematic assessment. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched English (Medline OVID), Chinese (Chinese Biomedical Literature Database and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure), and Russian (e-library) databases from the inception of each database to May 15, 2019, (with updated search of the Russian and English databases on Oct, 20 2020) using terms "ESAT6" OR "CFP10" AND "skin test" AND "Tuberculosis" OR "C-Tb" OR "Diaskintest". We included studies reporting on the performance of index tests alone or compared with a comparator. Inclusion criteria varied according to review objectives and performance outcome, but reporting of test cut-offs for positivity applied to study population was required from all studies. We used a hierarchy of reference standards for tuberculosis infection consistent with the 2020 WHO framework to evaluate diagnostic performance. Two authors independently reviewed the titles and abstracts for English and Chinese (LF and MK) and Russian studies (MK and VN). Study quality was assessed with QUADAS-2. Pooled random-effects estimates are presented when appropriate for total agreement proportion, sensitivity in microbiologically confirmed tuberculosis and specificity in cohorts with low risk of tuberculosis infection. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019135572. FINDINGS: We identified 1466 original articles, of which 37 (2·5%) studies, including 10 915 individuals (7111 Diaskintest, 2744 C-Tb, 887 EC, 173 DPPD), were included in the qualitative analysis (29 [78%] studies of Diaskintest, five [15%] studies of C-Tb, two [5%] studies of EC-skintest, and one [3%] study of DPPD). 22 (1·5%) studies including 5810 individuals (3143 Diaskintest, 2129 C-Tb, 538 EC-skintest) were included in the quantitative analysis: 15 (68%) of Diaskintest, five (23%) of C-Tb, and two (9%) of EC-skintest. Tested sub-populations included individuals with HIV, children (0-18 years), and individuals exposed to tuberculosis. Studies were heterogeneous with moderate to high risk of bias. Nine head-to-head studies of index test versus TST and IGRA permitted direct comparisons and pooling. In a mixed cohort of people with and without tuberculosis, Diaskintest pooled agreement with IGRA was 87·16% (95% CI 79·47-92·24) and 55·45% (46·08-64·45) with TST-5 mm cut-off (TST5 mm). Diaskintest sensitivity was 91·18% (95% CI 81·72-95·98) compared with 88·24% (78·20-94·01) for TST5 mm, 89·66 (78·83-95·28) for IGRA QuantiFERON, and 90·91% (79·95-96·16) for TSPOT.TB. C-Tb agreement with IGRA in individuals with active tuberculosis was 79·80% (95% CI 76·10-83·07) compared with 78·92% (74·65-82·63) for TST5 mm/15 mm cut-off (TST5 mm/15 mm). TST5/15mm reflects threshold in cohorts that applied stratified cutoffs: 5 mm for HIV-infected, immunocompromised, or BCG-naive individuals, and 15mm for BCG-vaccinated immunocompetent individuals. C-Tb sensitivity was 74·52% (95% CI 70·39-78·25) compared with a sensitivity of 78·18% (67·75-85·94) for TST5 mm/15 mm, and 71·67% (63·44-78·68) for IGRA. Specificity was 97·85% (95% CI 93·96-99·25) for C-Tb versus 93·31% (90·22-95·48) for TST 15 mm cut-off and 99·15% (79·66-99·97) for IGRA. EC-skintest sensitivity was 86·06% (95% CI 82·39-89·07). INTERPRETATION: Novel skin-based tests for tuberculosis infection appear to perform similarly to IGRA or TST; however, study quality varied. Evaluation of test performance, patient-important outcomes, and diagnostic use in current clinical algorithms will inform implementation in key populations. FUNDING: StopTB (New Diagnostics Working Group) and FIND. TRANSLATIONS: For the Chinese and Russian translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Preliminary Evaluation of QuantiFERON SARS-CoV-2 and QIAreach Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Total Test in Recently Vaccinated Individuals.

INTRODUCTION: There is an increasing body of evidence surrounding the importance of a T cell-mediated response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and after COVID-19 vaccination. In this internal feasibility study, we evaluated both the total antibody (IgA, IgM, and IgG) and T cell responses in a cohort of COVID-19 convalescents and vaccinated individuals. METHODS: Whole blood specimens were collected weekly from 12 subjects at different time points within/after the COVID-19 mRNA vaccination regimen, and from 4 PCR-confirmed convalescent donors to measure durability of humoral and cell-mediated immune response. T cell and antibody responses were evaluated via the QuantiFERON SARS-CoV-2 research use only (QFN SARS-CoV-2) assay which is an interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) and QIAreach Anti-SARS-CoV-2 total (Anti-CoV-2) test, respectively. RESULTS: In a cohort of recently vaccinated individuals, subjects demonstrated robust total antibody and CD4+/CD8+ T cell response to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines when followed for 2 months post-2nd dose. In most individuals, T cell response declined between the 1st and 2nd doses suggesting a need for a booster or the completion of the 2-dose vaccine series. In a group of convalescent donors tested with QFN SARS-CoV-2 and Anti-CoV-2 tests, all patients had an antibody and T cell response up to 1 year after natural infection. CONCLUSION: This small feasibility study demonstrates that the QFN-SARS-CoV-2 test is able to identify CD4+ and CD8+ T cell-mediated responses in SARS-CoV-2-vaccinated subjects and those recovered from COVID-19, alongside a qualitative antibody response detectable via the QIAreach Anti-CoV2 test.

The potential clinical utility of measuring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2-specific T-cell responses.

BACKGROUND: Both humoral and cell-mediated responses are associated with immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Although our understanding of the potential role of T-cell responses in the context of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly increasing, more information is still needed. OBJECTIVES: To provide an overview of the role of T-cell immunity in COVID-19, in the context of natural infection and post-vaccination, and discuss the potential utility of measuring SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell responses, drawing on experience of the use of interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) in tuberculosis (TB). SOURCES: PubMed articles up to 16 April 2021. CONTENT: T-cell responses can be detected very early in the course of COVID-19, earlier than the detection of antibody responses, and are correlated with COVID-19 outcome. Lower CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell counts are markers of more severe disease, longer duration of viral RNA positivity and increased mortality. In line with natural infection, SARS-CoV-2 vaccination stimulates robust T-cell responses, which probably play an important role in protection; data on long-term T-cell responses are currently limited. The utility of measuring T-cell responses is already well established in both aiding the diagnosis of TB infection using IGRAs, and evaluation of T-cell responses to TB vaccine candidates. A variety of assays have already been developed to measure SARS-CoV-2-specific T-cell responses, including IGRAs, intracellular cytokine staining and activation-induced markers. IGRAs based on SARS-CoV-2 antigens can distinguish between convalescent and uninfected healthy blood donors. IMPLICATIONS: Simple assays for measuring the quantity and function of T-cell responses may have utility in the prognostication of COVID-19, and for monitoring immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and population-based immunity to SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest.

Biomarkers of treatment success in fully sensitive pulmonary tuberculosis patients: a multicenter longitudinal study.

Aim: Novel biomarkers that are able to accurately monitor tuberculosis (TB) treatment effectiveness are needed to adjust therapy and identify a need for a regimen change. Materials & methods: In our study, conducted on a cohort comprising 100 pulmonary TB patients, we analyzed the role of plasma cytokines and Toll-like receptors expression as biomarkers of treatment response. Results: Changes in toll-interacting protein (TOLLIP) and lymphocyte antigen 96 (LY96) gene expression as well as nine cytokine levels over the first 2 months were significantly associated with successful treatment outcome. Successful treatment was associated with higher serum concentration of Toll-like receptor-2. Conclusion: Our results suggest that differential expression of specific effector molecules and dynamics of selected cytokines may help to identify those responding to TB treatment early.

European Union training programme for tuberculosis laboratory experts: design, contribution and future direction.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) control programmes rely heavily on laboratories to support both clinical care and public health. Qualified personnel with adequate technical and managerial skills comprise an integral component of any quality assured laboratory. Training a new generation of TB laboratory specialists was identified as a critical priority in the European Union /European Economic Area (EU/EEA). A tailored training programme for TB reference laboratory professionals was developed and implemented within the European Reference Laboratory Network for Tuberculosis to increase the pool of technical experts available to step into leadership roles in the TB laboratory community. Three cohorts of selected laboratory specialists participated in a series of trainings from 2009 to 2016. METHODS: We conducted an evaluation of the training programme using a structured questionnaire administered via the EUSurvey website, with the aim of documenting the benefits and contribution as well as suggesting improvements and future direction of the programme. All graduated participants and all current ERLTB-Net members were invited to participate in the online survey and descriptive quantitative analysis was performed. RESULTS: The evaluation found significant benefits for both the participants and the participants' institutions, with improvements being reported in laboratory practices and management including implementation of new diagnostic techniques and career progression for participants. The training programme differed from other international and European initiatives in a number of important ways; the curriculum is unique in the scope and range of topics covered; the programme targets senior level professionals and future directors; cohorts were limited to 8-10 participants; and the programme involved a number of workshops (5-7) taking place over a two-year period. Relationships and collaborations established between individuals and institutions were valued as an important success of the initiative. Suggestions on how the impact of the programme could be enhanced included equipping participants to perform laboratory assessments in low-resource settings outside the EU, thus bolstering global TB control. CONCLUSION: Based on the findings presented the training programme has proved to be successful in developing leadership, expertise, partnerships and networks to support TB laboratories and has contributed significant benefits to strengthening European National Reference laboratories in the fight against TB.

Non-commercial phenotypic assays for the detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis drug resistance: a systematic review.

Several rapid non-commercial culture-based methods and assays for drug susceptibility testing (DST) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis have emerged over the last decades. The aim of the current review was to summarise evidence on the performance of microscopic observation of drug susceptibility (MODS), thin-layer agar (TLA) and colorimetric redox-indicator (CRI) assays for detection of resistance to first- and second-line anti-tuberculosis (TB) drugs. Forty-three publications satisfying selection criteria were selected for data extraction. MODS and CRI assays demonstrated pooled sensitivity and specificity of > 93% for the detection of resistance to rifampicin and isoniazid and confirmed their utility for an accurate detection of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) in various settings. Sensitivity and specificity values for indirect DST for ethambutol (EMB) using CRI assays were 94.0% and 82.0%, respectively, suggesting that CRIs could be used to rule out resistance to EMB. Performance for other drugs varied more substantially across the reports. There was no sufficient evidence on the performance of the TLA assay for making any conclusion on its utility for DST. Our data suggests that non-commercial assays could be used for a rapid and accurate DST in settings where the use of commercial World Health Organization-endorsed assays could be limited due to a variety of reasons including limited resources, laboratory facilities or trained personnel. While inexpensive and easy-to-perform MODS and TLA assays can be used in low-income settings, using CRI assays for determination of minimal inhibitory concentrations may be implemented in middle- and high-income countries with high MDR-TB burden to guide clinical management of TB patients.

Novel external quality assurance scheme for drug susceptibility testing of non-tuberculous mycobacteria: a multicentre pilot study.

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to conduct a multicentre study involving laboratories participating in the European TB Reference Laboratory Network aiming to develop a pilot external quality assessment (EQA) scheme for drug susceptibility testing (DST) of non-tuberculous mycobacteria (NTM). METHODS: The study comprised a survey using a structured questionnaire followed by a pilot EQA round using identical panels of 10 Mycobacterium avium (MAV) and Mycobacterium abscessus (MAB) isolates. EQA results were received from 16 laboratories utilizing the broth microdilution method. Consensus modal MIC values were determined, and essential and categorical agreement rates were calculated. RESULTS: Twenty-four out of 31 laboratories (77.4%) reported DST for NTM routinely. Essential agreement ranged from 78.8% (amikacin) to 96.2% (linezolid) for MAV and from 76.0% (amikacin) to 100% (doxycycline) for MAB. Categorical agreement ranged from 56.8% (moxifloxacin) to 100% (clarithromycin) for MAV and from 53.6% (linezolid) to 100% (doxycycline) for MAB. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that interlaboratory reproducibility of DST for NTM is insufficient, highlighting the need for expanding EQA schemes. As EQAs for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex have led to more reliable and reproducible DST, we propose to follow a similar approach for clinically relevant NTM.

Diabetes mellitus and latent tuberculosis infection: baseline analysis of a large UK cohort.

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from a UK cohort study which enrolled participants at risk of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI, defined as a positive result for either of the two interferon gamma release assays). Binomial regression with a log link was used to estimate crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% CIs for the relationship between diabetes mellitus (DM) and LTBI. Adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, body mass index and the presence of other immunocompromising conditions, DM was associated with a 15% higher prevalence of LTBI (adjusted PR=1.15, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.30, p=0.025). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PREDICT is registered on clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01162265).

Compensatory evolution drives multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Central Asia.

Bacterial factors favoring the unprecedented multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) epidemic in the former Soviet Union remain unclear. We utilized whole genome sequencing and Bayesian statistics to analyze the evolutionary history, temporal emergence of resistance and transmission networks of MDR Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex isolates from Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan (2001-2006). One clade (termed Central Asian outbreak, CAO) dating back to 1974 (95% HPD 1969-1982) subsequently acquired resistance mediating mutations to eight anti-TB drugs. Introduction of standardized WHO-endorsed directly observed treatment, short-course in Karakalpakstan in 1998 likely selected for CAO-strains, comprising 75% of sampled MDR-TB isolates in 2005/2006. CAO-isolates were also identified in a published cohort from Russia (2008-2010). Similarly, the presence of mutations supposed to compensate bacterial fitness deficits was associated with transmission success and higher drug resistance rates. The genetic make-up of these MDR-strains threatens the success of both empirical and standardized MDR-TB therapies, including the newly WHO-endorsed short MDR-TB regimen in Uzbekistan.

Prognostic value of interferon-γ release assays and tuberculin skin test in predicting the development of active tuberculosis (UK PREDICT TB): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Tackling tuberculosis requires testing and treatment of latent tuberculosis in high-risk groups. The aim of this study was to estimate the predictive values of the tuberculin skin test (TST) and two interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) for the development of active tuberculosis in high-risk groups-ie, people in recent contact with active tuberculosis cases and from high-burden countries. METHOD: In this prospective cohort study, we recruited participants from 54 centres (eg, clinics, community settings) in London, Birmingham, and Leicester in the UK. Participants were eligible if they were aged 16 years or older and at high risk for latent tuberculosis infection (ie, recent contact with someone with active tuberculosis [contacts] or a migrant who had arrived in the UK in the past 5 years from-or who frequently travelled to-a country with a high burden of tuberculosis [migrants]). Exclusion criteria included prevalent cases of tuberculosis, and participants who were treated for latent tuberculosis after a positive test result in this study. Each participant received three tests (QuantiFERON-TB Gold-In Tube, T-SPOT.TB, and a Mantoux TST). A positive TST result was reported using three thresholds: 5 mm (TST-5), 10 mm (TST-10), and greater than 5 mm in BCG-naive or 15 mm in BCG-vaccinated (TST-15) participants. Participants were followed up from recruitment to development of tuberculosis or censoring. Incident tuberculosis cases were identified by national tuberculosis databases, telephone interview, and review of medical notes. Our primary objective was to estimate the prognostic value of IGRAs compared with TST, assessed by the ratio of incidence rate ratios and predictive values for tuberculosis development. The study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01162265, and is now complete. FINDINGS: Between May 4, 2010, and June 1, 2015, 10 045 people were recruited, of whom 9610 were eligible for inclusion. Of this cohort, 4861 (50·6%) were contacts and 4749 (49·4%) were migrants. Participants were followed up for a median of 2·9 years (range 21 days to 5·9 years). 97 (1·0%) of 9610 participants developed active tuberculosis (77 [1·2%] of 6380 with results for all three tests). In all tests, annual incidence of tuberculosis was very low in those who tested negatively (ranging from 1·2 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 0·6-2·0 for TST-5 to 1·9 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 1·3-2·7, for QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube). Annual incidence in participants who tested positively were highest for T-SPOT.TB (13·2 per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 9·9-17·4), TST-15 (11·1 per 1000 person-years, 8·3-14·6), and QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (10·1 per 1000 person-years, 7·4-13·4). Positive results for these tests were significantly better predictors of progression than TST-10 and TST-5 (eg, ratio of test positivity rates in those progressing to tuberculosis compared with those not progressing T-SPOT.TB vs TST-5: 1·99, 95% CI 1·68-2·34; p<0·0001). However, TST-5 identified a higher proportion of participants who progressed to active tuberculosis (64 [83%] of 77 tested) than all other tests and TST thresholds (≤75%). INTERPRETATION: IGRA-based or BCG-stratified TST strategies appear most suited to screening for potential disease progression among high-risk groups. Further work will be needed to assess country-specific cost-effectiveness of each screening test, and in the absence of highly specific diagnostic tests, cheap non-toxic treatments need to be developed that could be given to larger groups of people at potential risk. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme 08-68-01.