Development of Episode-Based Cost Measures for the US Medicare Merit-based Incentive Payment System.

Importance: The Merit-based Incentive Payment System (MIPS), established as part of the Quality Payment Program, is a Medicare value-based payment program that evaluates clinicians' performance across 4 categories: quality, cost, promoting interoperability, and improvement activities. The cost category includes novel episode-based measures designed for targeted evaluation of the resource use of specific conditions. This report describes the development of episode-based cost measures and their role in the shift from volume-based to value-based purchasing. Objectives: Episode-based cost measures focus on resource use related to the treatment of a specific condition or procedure. The measures exclude health care costs unrelated to the condition or procedure of focus. The episode-based cost measures provide a nuanced examination of resource use that can be used alongside quality metrics to identify opportunities to improve the value by capturing costs that are clinically related to the care being delivered within a given patient-clinician relationship of care delivered to patients. These measures were developed with the input of clinical committees composed of over 320 clinicians from 127 specialty societies and stakeholder organizations. The MIPS program currently evaluates clinician cost category performance based on 2 population-based cost measures (Medicare spending per beneficiary and total per capita costs) in addition to 18 episode-based cost measures. Additional episode-based cost measures are currently under development. Conclusions and Relevance: The transition to value-based payment requires an accurate assessment of clinician effect on health care quality and cost. The use of episode-based cost measures to assess clinician influence on health care costs for high-priority conditions and procedures is an important step. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services is introducing MIPS Value Pathways that will align episode-based cost measures with related quality measures to further incentivize the transition from fee-for-service to value-based care.

Clinical Benefit of American College of Chest Physicians versus European Society of Cardiology Guidelines for Stroke Prophylaxis in Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Guidelines for anticoagulant therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) conflict with each other. The American College of Chest Physicians (ACCP) guidelines suggest no anticoagulant therapy for patients with a CHADS2 score of 0. The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) prefer anticoagulant therapy for patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc of 1, which includes 65-74-year-olds with a CHADS2 score of 0. Resolving this conflicting advice is important, because these guidelines have potential to change anticoagulant therapy in 10 % of the AF population. METHODS: Using the National Registry of Atrial Fibrillation (NRAF) II data set, we compared these guidelines using stroke equivalents. Based on structured review of 23,657 patient records, we identified 65-74-year-old patients with a CHADS2 stroke score of 0 and no contraindication to warfarin. We used Medicare claims data to ascertain rates of ischemic stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, and other hemorrhage. We calculated net stroke equivalents for these (N = 478) patients using a weight of 1.5 for intracranial hemorrhages (ICH) and 1.0 for ischemic stroke. In a multivariate analysis, we used 14,466 records with documented atrial fibrillation and adjusted for CHADS2 and HEMORR2 HAGES score. RESULTS: In 65-74-year-old patients with a CHADS2 stroke score of 0, the stroke equivalents per 100 patient-years was 2.6 with warfarin and 2.9 without warfarin; the difference between these two strategies was not significant (0.3 stroke equivalents, 95 % CI -3.2 to 3.7). However, rates of hemorrhage per 100 patient-years were nearly tripled (hazard ratio 2.9; 95 % CI 1.5-5.4; p = 0.0011) with warfarin (21.1) versus without it (7.4). The most common site for major hemorrhage was gastrointestinal (ICD-9 code 578.9). CONCLUSIONS: By expanding warfarin use to 65--74-year-olds with a CHADS2 score of 0, rates of hemorrhages would rise without a significant reduction in stroke equivalents.

Gender differences across racial and ethnic groups in the quality of care for acute myocardial infarction and heart failure associated with comorbidities.

This paper provides important insights on gender differences across racial and ethnic groups in a Medicare population in terms of the quality of care received for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and congestive heart failure (CHF) in association with diabetes or hypertension/end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Both race/ethnicity and gender are associated with differences in the diagnostic evaluation and treatment of Medicare recipients with these conditions. In the AMI group, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients of both genders were less likely to receive aspirin or beta-blockers than non-Hispanic Whites. These differences persisted for Hispanic women and men even when they presented with ESRD or diabetes. Rates for smoking cessation counseling were among the lowest among non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics with AMI-diabetes and non-Hispanic blacks with AMI-hypertension/ESRD. Gender comparisons within racial groups for the AMI and AMI-diabetes groups show that among non-Hispanic Whites, women were less likely to receive aspirin and beta-blockers. No gender differences were noted among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic Medicare recipients. In the CHF group, Hispanics were the racial/ethnic group least likely to have an assessment of left ventricular function (LVF), even if they had diabetes and had lower rates of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor therapy or even if they had combined CHF-hypertension/ESRD. Gender comparisons in both the CHF and CHF-hypertension/ESRD groups show that non-Hispanic White women were less likely to have an LVF assessment than non-Hispanic White men. Among all subjects, having comorbidities with AMI was not associated with higher markers of quality cardiovascular care. Closing the many gaps in cardiovascular care must target the specific needs of women and men across racial and ethnic groups.

Use and effectiveness of warfarin in Medicare beneficiaries with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: More than 2 million Americans have atrial fibrillation, and without antithrombotic therapy, their stroke rate is increased 5-fold. In randomized controlled trials, warfarin prevented 65% of ischemic strokes (hazard ratio [HR], 0.35; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.48) compared with no antithrombotic therapy. However, the effectiveness of warfarin therapy outside of clinical trials is unknown, especially in black and Hispanic populations. Our goal was to quantify use of warfarin therapy, frequency of International Normalized Ratio monitoring, and effectiveness for stroke prophylaxis in Medicare beneficiaries with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: This was a cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries with atrial fibrillation who were hospitalized between March 1998 and April 1999 in all 50 US states. The primary outcome was incident hospitalizations for ischemic stroke based on validated International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. RESULTS: Two thirds of ideal anticoagulation candidates were prescribed warfarin on hospital discharge. In unadjusted analyses, the stroke rates per 100 patient years of warfarin therapy were 5.2 in (non-Hispanic) white Medicare beneficiaries, 10.6 in black beneficiaries, and 12.2 in Hispanic beneficiaries. After adjusting for comorbid conditions, warfarin prescription was more frequent and monitoring more regular in white Medicare beneficiaries than in black or Hispanic beneficiaries (P<0.0001). Warfarin use was associated with 35% fewer ischemic strokes (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.55 to 0.76) compared with no antithrombotic therapy but was less effective in black and Hispanic beneficiaries (P for interaction=0.048). CONCLUSIONS: The use, monitoring, and effectiveness of warfarin therapy are suboptimal in Medicare beneficiaries, especially in black and Hispanic beneficiaries.

Risk of osteoporotic fracture in elderly patients taking warfarin: results from the National Registry of Atrial Fibrillation 2.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin K allows for gamma-carboxylation of glutamyl residues, a conversion that activates clotting factors and bone proteins. Vitamin K antagonists such as warfarin inhibit this process. Our goal was to quantify the association between warfarin and osteoporotic fractures in patients with atrial fibrillation. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries with atrial fibrillation who were hospitalized between March 1998 and April 1999 in all 50 US states. The study outcome was osteoporotic fractures, identified by an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) code for a fracture of the hip, spine, or wrist. RESULTS: Compared with 7587 patients who were not prescribed warfarin, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of fracture was 1.25 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.48) in 4461 patients prescribed long-term warfarin therapy (> or = 1 year). The association between osteoporotic fracture and long-term warfarin use was significant in men (OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.26-2.10) but nonsignificant in women (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.88-1.26). In 1833 patients prescribed warfarin for less than a year, the risk of osteoporotic fracture was not increased significantly (OR, 1.03). Odds ratios (95% CIs) of independent predictors of osteoporotic fractures were as follows: increasing age, 1.63 (1.47-1.80) per decade; high fall risk, 1.78 (1.42-2.21); hyperthyroidism, 1.77 (1.16-2.70); neuropsychiatric disease, 1.51 (1.28-1.78); and alcoholism, 1.50 (1.01-2.24). Factors with a reduced OR (95% CI) included African American race, 0.30 (0.18-0.51); male sex, 0.54 (0.46-0.62); and use of beta-adrenergic antagonists, 0.84 (0.70-1.00). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term use of warfarin was associated with osteoporotic fractures, at least in men with atrial fibrillation. Beta-adrenergic antagonists may protect against osteoporotic fractures.

Comorbidity indices to predict mortality from Medicare data: results from the national registry of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: By accounting for level of comorbidity, risk-adjustment models should quantify the risk of death. How accurately comorbidity indices predict risk of death in Medicare beneficiaries with atrial fibrillation is unclear. OBJECTIVES: We sought to quantify how well 3 administrative-data based comorbidity indices (Deyo, Romano, and Elixhauser) predict mortality compared with a chart-review index. DESIGN: We undertook a retrospective cohort study using Medicare claim data (1995-1999) and medical record review. SUBJECTS: We studied Medicare beneficiaries (n = 2728; mean age = 77) with a common cardiac dysrhythmia, atrial fibrillation. MEASURES: The outcome was time to death with the accuracy of the comorbidity indices measured by the c-statistic. RESULTS: Correlation between Deyo and Romano indices was strong, but weak between them and the other indices. Prevalence of many comorbidity conditions varied with different indices. Compared with demographic data alone (c = 0.64), all comorbidity indices predicted death significantly (P < 0.001) better: the c index was 0.76 for Deyo, 0.78 for Romano, 0.76 for Elixhauser, and 0.75 for medical record review. The 95% confidence intervals of the c-statistic for the 4 indices overlapped with one another. Key comorbidity conditions for death included metastatic cancer, neuropsychiatric disease, heart failure, and liver disease. CONCLUSION: The predictive accuracy of 3 administrative-data based indices was similar and comparable with chart-review.

Incidence of intracranial hemorrhage in patients with atrial fibrillation who are prone to fall.

PURPOSE: Patients at high risk for falls are presumed to be at increased risk for intracranial hemorrhage, and high risk for falls is cited as a contraindication to antithrombotic therapy. Data substantiating this concern are lacking. METHODS: Quality improvement organizations identified 1245 Medicare beneficiaries who were documented in the medical record to be at high risk of falls and 18261 other patients with atrial fibrillation. The patients were elderly (mean 80 years), and 48% were prescribed warfarin at hospital discharge. The primary endpoint was subsequent hospitalization for an intracranial hemorrhage, based on ICD-9 codes. RESULTS: Rates (95% confidence interval [CI]) of intracranial hemorrhage per 100 patient-years were 2.8 (1.9-4.1) in patients at high risk for falls and 1.1 (1.0-1.3) in other patients. Rates (95% CI) of traumatic intracranial hemorrhage were 2.0 (1.3-3.1) in patients at high risk for falls and 0.34 (0.27-0.45) in other patients. Hazard ratios (95% CI) of other independent risk factors for intracranial hemorrhage were 1.4 (1.0-3.1) for neuropsychiatric disease, 2.1 (1.6-2.7) for prior stroke, and 1.9 (1.4-2.4) for prior major bleeding. Warfarin prescription was associated with intracranial hemorrhage mortality but not with intracranial hemorrhage occurrence. Ischemic stroke rates per 100 patient-years were 13.7 in patients at high risk for falls and 6.9 in other patients. Warfarin prescription in patients prone to fall who had atrial fibrillation and multiple additional stroke risk factors appeared to protect against a composite endpoint of stroke, intracranial hemorrhage, myocardial infarction, and death. CONCLUSION: Patients at high risk for falls with atrial fibrillation are at substantially increased risk of intracranial hemorrhage, especially traumatic intracranial hemorrhage. However, because of their high stroke rate, they appear to benefit from anticoagulant therapy if they have multiple stroke risk factors.

Accuracy of ICD-9-CM codes for identifying cardiovascular and stroke risk factors.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine which ICD-9-CM codes in Medicare Part A data identify cardiovascular and stroke risk factors. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a cross-sectional study comparing ICD-9-CM data to structured medical record review from 23,657 Medicare beneficiaries aged 20 to 105 years who had atrial fibrillation. MEASUREMENTS: Quality improvement organizations used standardized abstraction instruments to determine the presence of 9 cardiovascular and stroke risk factors. Using the chart abstractions as the gold standard, we assessed the accuracy of ICD-9-CM codes to identify these risk factors. MAIN RESULTS: ICD-9-CM codes for all risk factors had high specificity (>0.95) and low sensitivity (< or =0.76). The positive predictive values were greater than 0.95 for 5 common, chronic risk factors-coronary artery disease, stroke/transient ischemic attack, heart failure, diabetes, and hypertension. The sixth common risk factor, valvular heart disease, had a positive predictive value of 0.93. For all 6 common risk factors, negative predictive values ranged from 0.52 to 0.91. The rare risk factors-arterial peripheral embolus, intracranial hemorrhage, and deep venous thrombosis-had high negative predictive value (> or =0.98) but moderate positive predictive values (range, 0.54-0.77) in this population. CONCLUSIONS: Using ICD-9-CM codes alone, heart failure, coronary artery disease, diabetes, hypertension, and stroke can be ruled in but not necessarily ruled out. Where feasible, review of additional data (eg, physician notes or imaging studies) should be used to confirm the diagnosis of valvular disease, arterial peripheral embolus, intracranial hemorrhage, and deep venous thrombosis.

Multistate improvement in process and outcomes of carotid endarterectomy.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of community-wide performance measurement and feedback on key processes and outcomes of carotid endarterectomy (CEA). METHODS: Complete medical record (hospital chart) review for indications, care processes, and outcomes was performed on a random sample of Medicare patients undergoing CEA in 10 states (Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma) during baseline (Jun 1, 1995 to May 31, 1996) and remeasurement (Jun 1, 1998 to May 31, 1999) periods. In addition to review of the index hospital stay, hospital admissions within 30 days of the procedure were reviewed and the Medicare enrollment database queried to identify out-of-hospital deaths, to determine 30-day outcome results. The baseline data by state were provided to the Medicare Quality Improvement Organizations (QIOs) in the respective states, and quality improvement initiatives were encouraged. RESULTS: We reviewed 9945 primary CEA alone procedures, 236 CEA and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) procedures, and 380 repeat CEA operations during the baseline period (B), and 9745 primary CEA alone procedures, 233 CEA and CABG procedures, and 401 repeat CEA operations during the remeasurement period (R). There was a significant decrease in the combined event rate (30-day stroke or mortality) for CEA alone procedures between baseline and remeasurement (B, 5.6%; R, 5.0%). A decrease occurred in each of the indication strata; transient ischemic attack or stroke (B, 7.7%; R, 6.9%), nonspecific symptoms (B, 5.9%; R, 5.4%), and no symptoms (B, 4.1%; R, 3.8%). The combined event rate also decreased for CEA and CABG (B, 17.4%; R, 13.3%) and repeat CEA operations (B, 6.8%; R, 5.7%). The remeasurement period state-to-state variation in combined event rate for CEA alone ranged from 2.7% (Georgia) to 5.9% (Indiana) for all indications combined, from 4.4% (Georgia) to 10.9% (Michigan) in patients with recent transient ischemia or stroke, from 1.4% (Georgia) to 6.0% (Oklahoma) in patients with no symptoms, and from 3.7% (Georgia) to 7.9% (Indiana) in patients with nonspecific symptoms. There were significant increases in preoperative antiplatelet administration (62%-67%; P <.0001) and patching (29%-45%; P =.05) from baseline to remeasurement in the CEA alone subset. Preoperative antiplatelet administration and patching were associated with improved outcomes in the combined baseline and remeasurement data. CONCLUSIONS: Community-wide quality improvement initiatives with performance measurement and confidential reporting of provider level data can lead to improvement in important care processes and outcomes. There is considerable variation between states in outcome and process, and thus continued room for improvement. Quality improvement projects that include standardized confidential outcome reporting should be encouraged. Preoperative antiplatelet therapy administration and patching rates should be considered as evidence-based performance measures.

Patterns of secondary prevention in older patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting during hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Aggressive risk factor modification decreases cardiovascular events and mortality in patients after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Little is known regarding the use of secondary prevention in older patients undergoing CABG during hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). METHODS AND RESULTS: Medical records were reviewed for a sample of 37,513 patients hospitalized with AMI in the United States between April 1998 and March 1999. Patients >or=65 years of age who underwent CABG after AMI (n=2,267 [8%]) were evaluated for the prescription of 4 therapies at discharge: aspirin, beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, and lipid lowering, in eligible patients without contraindications to therapy and compared with patients who did not undergo CABG (n=26,484 [92%]). Patients undergoing CABG had higher rates of aspirin than patients who did not undergo CABG (88.0% versus 83.2%, P=0.0002). However, CABG patients were less likely to receive beta-blockers (61.5% versus 72.1%, P<0.0001), ACE inhibitors (55.5% versus 72.1%, P<0.0001), or lipid lowering (34.7% versus 55.7%, P<0.0001) prescriptions than patients who did not undergo CABG. After adjustment for disease severity, patients undergoing CABG were no longer more likely to receive discharge aspirin, and the magnitude of other differences in care increased. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based discharge therapies are underutilized in older patients who underwent CABG during hospitalization for AMI. Although national efforts focusing on improving short-term surgical mortality have been successful, strategies should be developed to increase the utilization of therapies known to improve long-term mortality in patients undergoing CABG.

Establishing data elements for the Paul Coverdell National Acute Stroke Registry: Part 1: proceedings of an expert panel.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is the third-leading cause of death and a leading cause of disability in adults in the United States. In recent years, leaders in the stroke care community identified a national registry as a critical tool to monitor the practice of evidence-based medicine for acute stroke patients and to target areas for continuous quality of care improvements. An expert panel was convened by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to recommend a standard list of data elements to be considered during development of prototypes of the Paul Coverdell National Acute Stroke Registry. METHODS: A multidisciplinary panel of representatives of the Brain Attack Coalition, professional associations, nonprofit stroke organizations, and federal health agencies convened in February 2001 to recommend key data elements. Agreement was reached among all participants before an element was added to the list. RESULTS: The recommended elements included patient-level data to track the process of delivering stroke care from symptom onset through transport to the hospital, emergency department diagnostic evaluation, use of thrombolytic therapy when indicated, other aspects of acute care, referral to rehabilitation services, and 90-day follow-up. Hospital-level measures pertaining to stroke center guidelines were also recommended to augment patient-level data. CONCLUSIONS: Routine monitoring of the suggested parameters could promote community awareness campaigns, support quality improvement interventions for stroke care and stroke prevention in each state, and guide professional education in hospital and emergency system settings. Such efforts would reduce disability and death among stroke patients.