Improving identification of symptomatic cancer at primary care clinics: A predictive modeling analysis in Botswana.

In resource-limited settings, augmenting primary care provider (PCP)-based referrals with data-derived algorithms could direct scarce resources towards those patients most likely to have a cancer diagnosis and benefit from early treatment. Using data from Botswana, we compared accuracy of predictions of probable cancer using different approaches for identifying symptomatic cancer at primary clinics. We followed cancer suspects until they entered specialized care for cancer treatment (following pathologically confirmed diagnosis), exited from the study following noncancer diagnosis, or died. Routine symptom and demographic data included baseline cancer probability assessed by the primary care provider (low, intermediate, high), age, sex, performance status, baseline cancer probability by study physician, predominant symptom (lump, bleeding, pain or other) and HIV status. Logistic regression with 10-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate classification by different sets of predictors: (1) PCPs, (2) Algorithm-only, (3) External specialist physician review and (4) Primary clinician augmented by algorithm. Classification accuracy was assessed using c-statistics, sensitivity and specificity. Six hundred and twenty-three adult cancer suspects with complete data were retained, of whom 166 (27%) were diagnosed with cancer. Models using PCP augmented by algorithm (c-statistic: 77.2%, 95% CI: 73.4%, 81.0%) and external study physician assessment (77.6%, 95% CI: 73.6%, 81.7%) performed better than algorithm-only (74.9%, 95% CI: 71.0%, 78.9%) and PCP initial assessment (62.8%, 95% CI: 57.9%, 67.7%) in correctly classifying suspected cancer patients. Sensitivity and specificity statistics from models combining PCP classifications and routine data were comparable to physicians, suggesting that incorporating data-driven algorithms into referral systems could improve efficiency.

HIV and Hodgkin Lymphoma Survival: A Prospective Study in Botswana.

PURPOSE: People living with HIV (PLWH) experience increased risk of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) despite effective initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). In high-income countries, outcomes following HIV HL have been reported to be non-differential, or inferior for PLWH. We sought to assess the effect of HIV on HL survival in Botswana, an African country with a generalized HIV epidemic and high ART coverage, to describe a context more reflective of global HIV populations. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the Thabatse Cancer Cohort, consenting participants initiating treatment for HL at one of four cancer centers in Botswana were enrolled from 2010 to 2020. Patients were followed quarterly for up to 5 years. The impact of HIV on survival following treatment initiation was assessed using an inverse probability-weighted Cox marginal structural model adjusted for age, performance status, and disease stage. RESULTS: Seventy-eight new HL cases were enrolled, 47 (60%) were PLWH and 31 (40%) were HIV-uninfected. Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. The majority (61%) of patients presented with regional disease (stage I or II) with no statistically significant difference by HIV status (P = .38). Nearly all (87%) PLWH participants were on ART before their HL diagnosis (median ART duration 42 months), and median CD4 count was 413 cells/µL (interquartile range 253-691). Survival, in unadjusted analyses, was lower among patients without HIV compared with PLWH (log rank P = .021). In adjusted analysis, HIV infection was not significantly associated with survival in inverse probability-weighted Cox model (hazard ratio 0.43; 95% CI, 0.16 to 1.16; P = .094). CONCLUSION: In this cohort of patients treated for HL in Botswana, survival in PLWH (87% on long-standing ART) was at least as good as in individuals without HIV.

Accuracy of Pathologic Diagnosis in Patients With Lymphoma and Survival: A Prospective Analysis From Botswana.

PURPOSE: With intense HIV epidemics, southern African countries have a high burden of classic Hodgkin lymphoma (CHL) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). However, suboptimal access to pathology resources limits subtype classification. We sought to assess the diagnostic accuracy of specimens classified as lymphoma and to determine association between discordant pathologic diagnosis and overall survival. METHODS: Seventy patients with CHL or NHL and treated at three Botswana hospitals from 2010 to 2016 were analyzed. Local pathologic assessment relied primarily on morphology. All cases underwent secondary US hematopathology review, which is considered gold standard. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 58 months. The overall reclassification rate was 20 of 70 cases (29%). All 20 CHL cases were correctly classified in Botswana, and mixed cellularity was the most common subtype, diagnosed in 11 (55%) cases. Of 47 confirmed NHL cases, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma was the final US diagnosis in 28 cases (60%), another aggressive B-cell NHL in nine (19%), an indolent B-cell NHL in six (13%), and T-cell NHL in four (9%). Common types of diagnostic discordance included NHL subtype reclassification (11 of 20, 55%) and CHL reclassified as NHL (7 of 20, 35%). Concordant versus discordant diagnosis after secondary review was associated with improved 5-year overall survival (60.1% v 26.3%, P = .0066). Discordant diagnosis was independently associated with increased risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.733; 95% CI, 1.102 to 6.775; P = .0300) even after stratifying results by CHL versus NHL. CONCLUSION: In this single prospective cohort, discordant pathologic diagnosis was associated with a nearly three-fold increased risk of death. Limited access to relatively basic diagnostic techniques impairs treatment decisions and leads to poor patient outcomes in low-resource countries.

A Step Toward Timely Referral and Early Diagnosis of Cancer: Implementation and Impact on Knowledge of a Primary Care-Based Training Program in Botswana.

INTRODUCTION: Health system delays in diagnosis of cancer contribute to the glaring disparities in cancer mortality between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries. In Botswana, approximately 70% of cancers are diagnosed at late stage and median time from first health facility visit for cancer-related symptoms to specialty cancer care was 160 days (IQR 59-653). We describe the implementation and early outcomes of training targeting primary care providers, which is a part of a multi-component implementation study in Kweneng-East district aiming to enhance timely diagnosis of cancers. METHODS: Health-care providers from all public facilities within the district were invited to participate in an 8-h intensive short-course program developed by a multidisciplinary team and adapted to the Botswana health system context. Participants' performance was assessed using a 25-multiple choice question tool, with pre- and post-assessments paired by anonymous identifier. Statistical analysis with Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare performance at the two time points across eight sub-domains (pathophysiology, epidemiology, social context, symptoms, evaluation, treatment, documentation, follow-up). Linear regression and negative binomial modeling were used to determine change in performance. Participants' satisfaction with the program was measured on a separate survey using a 5-point Likert scale. RESULTS: 176 participants attended the training over 5 days in April 2016. Pooled linear regression controlling for test version showed an overall performance increase of 16.8% after participation (95% CI 15.2-18.4). Statistically significant improvement was observed for seven out of eight subdomains on test A and all eight subdomains on test B. Overall, 71 (40.3%) trainees achieved a score greater than 70% on the pretest, and 161 (91.5%) did so on the posttest. Participants reported a high degree of satisfaction with the training program's content and its relevance to their daily work. CONCLUSION: We describe a successfully implemented primary health care provider-focused training component of an innovative intervention aiming to reduce health systems delays in cancer diagnosis in sub-Saharan Africa. The training achieved district-wide participation, and improvement in the knowledge of primary health-care providers in this setting. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier NCT02752061.

Pre-clinical carotid atherosclerosis and sCD163 among virally suppressed HIV patients in Botswana compared with uninfected controls.

OBJECTIVES: Human immune deficiency virus (HIV) is associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, yet the relationship between HIV and carotid atherosclerosis / monocyte activation among virally suppressed HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa is not well understood. METHODS: We measured traditional CVD risk factors, bilateral distal common carotid intima media thickness (cIMT), presence of carotid plaque and plasma sCD163 levels among virally suppressed HIV-infected adults and HIV-uninfected controls, in a cross-sectional study in Gaborone, Botswana. The associations between HIV status, traditional CVD risk factors, sCD163 and outcome of cIMT were assessed in univariate and multivariate linear regression models. RESULTS: We enrolled 208 HIV-infected adults (55% Female, mean age 39 years) who had undetectable HIV-1 RNA on antiretroviral therapy and 224 HIV-uninfected controls (47% Female, mean age 37 years). There was no difference in cIMT between study groups, with mean cIMT 0.607mm and 0.599mm in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected, respectively (p = 0.37). Plasma sCD163 was significantly higher in HIV-infected versus HIV-uninfected persons (1917ng/ml vs 1593ng/ml, p = 0.003), but was not associated with cIMT (p = 0.43 among all, p = 0.72 for HIV-infected only). In the final multivariate model, increased cIMT was associated with older age, being treated for hypertension, and higher non-HDL cholesterol among all (p<0.001, p = 0.03, p<0.001 respectively), and with older age and waist-hip ratio in HIV-infected participants (p = 0.02 & p = 0.02 respectively). Carotid plaque was present in a significantly higher proportion of HIV-infected adults (RR 2.15, 95% CI 1.22, 3.81). CONCLUSIONS: HIV-infected participants aged 30-50 years who have achieved viral suppression did not have increased cIMT when compared to HIV-uninfected controls in Botswana. However, well-controlled HIV was associated with excess monocyte activation. Future work should explore the impact of subclinical atherosclerosis on CVD events among HIV-infected and -uninfected adults in Botswana.

Cardiovascular disease risk prediction by the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk score among HIV-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVES: HIV-infected patients are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, general population CVD risk prediction equations that identify HIV-infected patients at elevated risk have not been widely assessed in sub-Saharan African (SSA). METHODS: HIV-infected adults from 30-50 years of age with documented viral suppression were enrolled into a cross-sectional study in Gaborone, Botswana. Participants were screened for CVD risk factors. Bilateral carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) was measured and 10-year predicted risk of cardiovascular disease was calculated using the Pooled Cohorts Equation for atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) and the 2008 Framingham Risk Score (FRS) (National Cholesterol Education Program III-NCEP III). ASCVD ≥7.5%, FRS ≥10%, and cIMT≥75th percentile were considered elevated risk for CVD. Agreement in classification of participants as high-risk for CVD by cIMT and FRS or ASCVD risk score was assessed using McNemar`s Test. The optimal cIMT cut off-point that matched ASCVD predicted risk of ≥7.5% was assessed using Youden's J index. RESULTS: Among 208 HIV-infected patients (female: 55%, mean age 38 years), 78 (38%) met criteria for ASCVD calculation versus 130 (62%) who did not meet the criteria. ASCVD classified more participants as having elevated CVD risk than FRS (14.1% versus 2.6%, McNemar's exact test p = 0.01), while also classifying similar proportion of participants as having elevated CVD like cIMT (14.1% versus 19.2%, McNemar's exact test p = 0.34). Youden's J calculated the optimal cut point at the 81st percentile for cIMT to correspond to an ASCVD score ≥7.5% (sensitivity = 72.7% and specificity = 88.1% with area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic [AUC] of 0.82, 95% Mann-Whitney CI: 0.66-0.99). CONCLUSION: While the ASCVD risk score classified more patients at elevated CVD risk than FRS, ASCVD score classified similar proportion of patients as high risk when compared with established subclinical atherosclerosis. However, potential CVD risk category misclassification by established equations such as ASCVD may still exist among HIV-infected patients; hence there is still a need for development of a CVD risk prediction equation tailored to HIV-infected patients in SSA.